Shell Houston Open Betting Preview

Well I broke my cherry last week  with my first win this year at Bay Hill on Tiger (Albeit a small and predictable one) at 3/1 and yet another top 5 for the man playing some serious consistent golf at the moment Keegan Bradley at 28/1. Onward and upward to this week in Houston.

 

Keegan Bradley 15/1

Yep, you guessed it, I’m taking Bradley again this and I think everyone knows why, the guy has gone T4 at The Honda, 7th at The Cadillac and T3 last week at the Arnold Palmer in his last 3 starts which kind of says it all really. His stats are none too shabby either ranking 16th in Driving Distance and 8th in Scoring Average to name a few. He carded a final round 71 last week but he could have had a much better finish and challenged Tiger if his Iron play was a little better. Yes he was hitting greens in regulation but he was leaving himself 30 and 40 foot putts for birdies and some were even further! I believe if he tightens up his Iron play here, he will be a serious contender.

 

Hunter Mahan 17/1

Defending champion here, I mentioned last week that Hunter Mahan hasn’t been outside the top 30 in any tournament this season so far and that hasn’t changed with him finishing in a Tie for 21st at Bay Hill last week.  2 top 10’s in his last 4 starts, one of which was runner up in the WGC Matchplay. He is 9th in GIR, 16TH in Strokes Gained Putting and 18th in Birdie Average. Mahan has a good record around Redstone with 5 top 11 finishes in 7. Another guy, Like Keegan Bradley, That’s playing consistently at the moment and is certainly worth considering here.

 

Jimmy Walker 50/1

I have to say I’ve liked the look of this guy for the last year and he has bags of each way potential here at Redstone. Similar to Hunter Mahan, Walker has only been outside the top 30 once in his last 8 starts having a poor week at The Pheonix Open back in Febuary but he has 2 top 10’s in his last 4 starts, most recently in Bay Hill last week finishing in a tie for 8th. A few of his key stats include 7th in Scoring Average, 20th in Driving Distance and 29th in Strokes Gained Putting. After watching him for a while now, I think when Jimmy gets a sniff he gives it 100% and at 50/1 he is a great each way chance.

 

Henrik Stenson 45/1

Stenson is back playing good golf and will be coming into this week feeling positive after finishing in a tie for 8th last week at Bay Hill. He is showing a lot of consistency in his rounds lately shooting 3 71’s and a 69 in the final round last week and 3 rounds in the 60’s in Puerto Rico the week before. His record around here is good finishing 18th last year and tied third in 2009. A few of his stats include 1st in Driving Accuracy, 1st in GIR and 31st in Scoring Average. Playing well at the moment and is another player with a great each way chance at a generous 45/1.

 

Rory McIlroy  11/1

I’ve decided to take a chance on Rory this week mainly because Tiger has taken the world number one spot and that’s gotta piss Rory off something horrible! Let’s face it, the guy has had a bad season so far and there are alot of opinions floating around about how the new clubs aren’t suiting him and his missus is distracting him from his game yada yada yada but the truth is nobody knows. His tied 8th finish at The Cadillac was massive for his confidence and if you think he’s been sitting back scratching his proverbial rear end for the last couple of weeks then think again. Personally I think he knows he has a job to do and I think he’ll be back with a bang and there’s no time like the present.    

 

On a funny note here’s the link to Sergio playing a shot out of a tree last week at Bay Hill, Sadly he withdrew shortly after but you gotta admire the guy for giving it a go you da man Sergio! Enjoy!

 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=10jORLiU7Ak&feature=player_detailpage

 

Good Luck,

 

DoubleBogey6

Arnold Palmer Invitational Preview

Greame McDowell 22/1

Gmac is undoubtedly playing top stuff at the moment and is understandably going to be a popular choice with punters this week and with good reason. Since missing the cut at The Northern Trust Open he has 3 top 10’s in a row and his record at this Tournament is quite good. In his last 5 appearances he has 2 runner ups which would suggest the Portrush native likes it around here. His stats look impressive so far this season with 2nd in driving distance and 4th in scoring average. The way Gmac is playing, it’s hard to bet against him this week.

 

Keegan Bradley 28/1

With the exception of one MC in the Farmers back in January, This man is playing solid golf at the moment and this is shining through with 2 top 10’s in his last 2 starts. A T4 at The Honda Classic (In which he got me a place) and a T7 at The Cadillac, he could easily take it one step further here.  12th in scoring average and 19th in Driving Distance Keegan looks to be playing consistent enough to get at least a top 5.

 

Hunter Mahan 40/1

I have to say I was surprised to see Hunter at such a big price for a guy that is having a pretty good season so far. Since the start of the season, Mahan has not been outside the top 30 in any tournament so far this year. In his last 3 starts he has 2 top 10’s, most notably in the WGC Matchplay when he finished runner up to a steady and impressive Matt Kucher. His stats look good too, 11th in GIR and 14th in strokes gained putting to name a few. Playing so well at the moment, Mahan could easily contend here and 40/1 is too big a price not to take.

 

Sergio Garcia 20/1

I have decided to take Sergio again here this week mainly because I think he’s been sniffing around a win for the last couple of weeks and I think he just might snatch one here. Like Mahan, Sergio is having a great season so far and hasn’t been outside the top 20 since the beginning of the season. A T7 last week on a tough Copperhead track in Tampa and a T3 at The Cadillac the week before, it’s not hard to justify why he is a good bet this week. I recommended a YouTube video to watch on the short piece I wrote about Sergio last week called “The drill ever for coming over the top” its certainly worth a watch if you have a spare few minutes, it’s very similar to Sergio’s swing path.

 

Tiger Woods 3/1

I have been looking for a reason not to back Tiger this week but all my instincts are saying just do it! I’m not hugely surprised to see that he is a miserable 3/1 given the guy has an awesome record in this tournament winning it 7 times before and won it by 5 last year with Gmac a distant 2nd. He has 2 wins in 4 starts this year so far and seems to be back to his unstoppable self, judging by his current form. I suppose giving you some stats is probably a waste of time but here is a couple of key one’s anyway, 1st in Scoring Average, 2nd in Birdie Average, 6th in Strokes Gained Putting and 11th in Driving Distance (that doesn’t mean he hits it straight with Driving Accuracy 127th!). I think if he slips up, which is unlikely, Gmac might get his revenge this year.

 

Good Luck,

 

Doublebogey6

Tampa Bay Championship presented by EverBank

Sergio Garcia 14/1

Sergio finished in a tie for third last week at Doral and looks to be playing steady and consistent golf at the moment. I recently watched a YouTube video that’s entitled “Best Drill Ever for Coming Over the Top” which is exactly how Sergio swings the golf club and when he gets his swing rhythm right he is lethal. He can make it look very easy making fairways and greens and I believe he will have a good week on this tight Copperhead course.  Keep that rhythm Sergio!

 

Webb Simpson 18/1

Simpson has a decent record in this tournament with a top 10 last year, a 2nd place finish in 2011 and a top 15 in 2010 it would appear he is comfy in these surroundings. He has carded eight consecutive sub-70 rounds at the Copperhead Course. Finished T20 at The WGC Cadillac Champonship and a T5 at The World Matchplay Championship Simpson has a good past around here and he has the potential to take it one step further this week at a very tempting 18/1 for a player of his calibre.  

 

Michael Thompson 40/1

After winning The Honda Classic a couple of weeks back he has added another top 10 to his tally in March finishing T8 in The WGC Cadillac last week. Played this event for the first time last year and finished tied for 16th which shows promising signs that he could potentially have another good week here given his form at the moment. He is a solid ball striker and is accurate enough off the tee to take on this tight course. Great value for a guy playing so well at the moment.

 

Billy Horchel 100/1

Browsing through the prices on Bet365 earlier whilst contemplating what horses to have a cheeky bet on in Cheltenham this avo, I noticed Billy was a massive 100/1 shot this week and I thought to myself “That’s worth a punt”. A T10 at The Humana Challenge back in January and more recently he finished in a tie for 11th in The Pheonix Open. I think he may be just a tad overpriced. This golf course requires accuracy off the tee and good GIR stats. Billy ticks both box’s as he is 13th in driving accuracy and 49th in GIR. Let’s just say he won’t be the only snake in the grass in Tampa this week.

 

Jason Day 33/1

I have liked the look of Jason Day since the start of the season if im honest. Reason being is the guy is just playing really solid at the moment and with 3 top 10’s in 5 starts I think he has the potential to add another top 10 if not a top 5 to his season this week. He finished tied 33rd last week at The Cadillac after carding a fantastic 66 in round 2, he sadly followed that up with a disappointing 75 in round 3. However he will want to steady the ship after a mixed bag of scoring last week (74,66,75,71) I think he will bounce back and show us he is worthy of backing and snag us a place if not a win in Tampa this week.

WGC-Cadillac Championship

Matt Kuchar 25/1

After winning The WGC-Accenture Match Play Matt Kuchar is playing well. In his last 3 visits here he has 3 top 10 finishes with an 8th place finish last year. I think he is playing better than he was last year and at Doral he is more than capable of taking it one step further and winning here this week. A very solid bet this week at 25/1 considering he is playing fantastic golf.  

 

Charl Schwartzel 16/1

This guy is a very popular pick this week and it is fairly justifiable, the guy is playing good golf at the moment and had a T4 here last year. Finished T9 last week at The Honda Classic and a T3 at The Northern Trust Open, Charl is a serious danger man this week.

 

Keegan Bradley 25/1

Keegan got me a T4 last week at The Honda Classic and i think he is coming into some form after a shaky start to the season. After a disappointing finish to last year’s WGC shooting a disappointing 75, he still managed to finish Tied 8th. After the final round disappointment of last year he will more determined and confident coming off a good performance in last week’s Honda Classic. I would be surprised if Keegan didn’t feature in the top 10 this week.

 

Luke Donald 22/1

Luke has a great record around Doral finishing T6 the last two years so its not surprising to think he will go well again this year and possibly sneak into the top 5 or better. He has had a steady start to the season with 2 top 20’s in his last 2 starts. I think if he gets the ball rolling well off the putter he will be lethal. A very nice price this week and well worth parting with your hard earned cash for a win and each way shout.

 

Russell Henley 90/1

This guy was extremely impressive when he won the Sony Open back in January and has been playing good golf since. Its the rookie’s first visit to Doral but i would be quietly confident he will have a good week at a massive price. 2 top 20’s in his last 2 starts he could easily take that one step further at Doral as he is clearly playing well. Well worth a small stake each way.

 

Justin Rose  16/1

Justin won this event last year and i wouldn’t be surprised to see him defend his title. Played well in last week’s Honda Classic finishing T4th, he is rarely outside the top 10 and i don’t see that changing he this week.  

 

All prices taken from Bet365 at 20.00 on Wednesday March 6th.

The best of luck to you all,

 

DoubleBogey6