Waste Management Phoenix Open Betting Preview

Pheonix Open 2014

TPC Scottsdale, Arizona
Par 71, 7,216 Yards

The Course

The Phoenix Open has a reputation as being a rowdy week on the PGA Tour. Over the years it has shown that players who like it, lap it up and enjoy the general madness of the beer soaked fans shouting “Get in the hole!!!!” and then there’s the players who don’t and can’t really cope with it.

It is a desert course with a lot of bunkers and offers birdie opportunities by the bucketful, so expect the score to be around the 20 under mark. The course features three par 5’s and four par 3’s. One of the par 3’s is the 16th which is more of a mini stadium, than a par 3 on a golf course. It is an arena that can erupt at the sight of a good tee shot and give any player who is in the hunt a good ego boost going into the final few holes on Sunday.

This course will require solid play on the par 4’s. The eighth, ninth and 18th are the tricky par 4’s and will require a lot of length and accuracy off the tee. Good par 4 stats, GIR, proximity to the hole, birdie average and good driving stats will be key here this week.

Ryan Moore 25/1
Ryan Moore is a player who likes playing in the desert. He had a great performance here last year finishing in fourth, opening with a pair of 66’s and finishing with a pair of 65’s and finished on 22 under par in total.

He has had a good season so far with a win already under his belt beating Gary Woodland in a playoff in the CIMB Classic in Malaysia. He also has two top 10’s which came at The Shriners Open in Las Vegas which he finished T9th and, most recently, a 10th place finish at Hyundai Tournament of Champions the week before last.

Statswise Moore ranks fourth in driving accuracy, third in GIR, 10th in birdie average, second in par 3 birdie or better leaders, ninth in par 4 birdie or better leaders and second in proximity to the hole. He definitely has the game to go very low here this week and is clearly playing well at the moment coming off a good week at The HTOC.

Graham DeLaet 30/1
He’s a player that is in great form at the moment and looked full of confidence last week in Torrey Pines finishing in T2nd. He has had five top 10’s in his last six starts and has seven top 10’s in his last 14 tournaments.

DeLaet started the season with a MC at The Shriners Open in Vegas and followed that with a T7th at The CIMB Classic, T6th at The WGC-HSBC in Shanghai and T8th at The Franklin Templeton Shootout playing with partner and fellow Canadian Mike Weir.

Statswise he ranks 29th in total driving, 14th in GIR, 17TH in strokes gained and 12th in scoring average. He is playing with a lot of confidence at the moment and has the quality to go very well here in Arizona. Decent price for a real contender in my opinion.

Billy Horchel 28/1
Despite missing the cut in the opening event of the season, the Frys.com Open, Billy had an encouraging start which included a T11th finish at the CIMB Classic, a T4th finish at The Franklin Templeton Shootout with partner Chris DiMarco and a T6th finish at The Hyundai TOC a couple of weeks ago. He also shot a 65 the third round of the Humana and finished with a final round of 64 so there are signs of great golf from Horchel. There is just some consistency required.

Billy had a superb finish to his round on Sunday holing his third shot into the 18th for an eagle and finished T23rd for the tournament. He started well shooting a 67, 70 in the first two rounds and had a poor third round shooting a disappointing 77. It could have been a much better tournament for Billy and I think he could put that right here this week. He had a good performance here last year finishing in T11th.

Horchel is very accurate off the tee ranking 20th in driving accuracy hitting the fairway just short of 70% of the time. He also ranks eighth in birdie average, 18th in strokes gained, eighth in birdie or better conversion percentage and third in par 5 performance. Stats combined with a good previous performance make Horchel a big threat here this week.

Charley Hoffman 35/1
I have been keeping my beady eye on Charley Hoffman over the last couple of tournaments and I have to say he looks super at the moment. His game looks sharp which he has proven over the last two tournaments with two top 10’s safely under his belt. He opened with a 64 at The Humana Challenge and followed that with two 66’s in round two and three. In the final round he finished with a respectable 71 to finish in T9th.

If it wasn’t for a poor third round 75 at The Farmers last week, it could have been an entirely different story for Hoffman. He also had a good start to the new season finishing in solo fourth at The Shriners in Vegas back at the end of October. It’s fair to say Charley is playing well at the moment. He has played well here in the past with a great performance in 2009 finishing in solo 2nd.

He ranks 10th in total driving, 21st in birdie average, 39th in proximity and is inside the top 20 in par 3,par 4 and par 5 performance. If you’re looking for a guy that’s in good form, good value and playing well, Charley has to be your man here.

Gary Woodland 35/1
Gary Woodland put on a fabulous putting and unbelievable scrambling display last week in Torrey Pines. If you were watching, you couldn’t help but feel sorry for the poor chap when he hit his tee shot on 16 out of bounds. But despite that, he did play very well last week it has to be said.

Woodland had a great performance at The CIMB Classic in Malaysia finishing runner up in a playoff to Ryan Moore back in October. He followed that with a T13th finish at The Hyundai TOC and finished on 15 under at The Humana in T38th. After nearly tucking the Farmers Insurance Open trophy into his cabinet last week, I think he could come to TPC Scottsdale ready for battle on a course that he has played well on in the past. He finished in a respectable T16th here last year, T26th in 2012 and T5th in 2011.

Woodland ranks second in total driving, 12th in GIR, seventh in birdie average and 15th in par 5 performance. Not to mention good GIR percentage stats. He is another player that looks very well suited to this course and could improve on his previous good record here this week.

Final Selections:
Ryan Moore 1.5pts/3 pts total EW
Graham DeLaet 1.5pts/3 pts total EW
Billy Horchel 1 pt/2 pts total EW
Charley Hoffman 1 pt/2 pts total EW
Gary Woodland 1 pt/2 pts EW total

Total staked = 12 pts

Good luck and enjoy the golf,

Doublebogey6
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Farmers Insurance Open Betting Preview

Farmers Insurance Logo

The Course:
Torrey Pines GC, San Diego, California

There are two courses played here this week.

North Course 6,874 Yards, par 72
Clearly the easier of the two. This course is used in one of the first two rounds and has four par fives in total.

South Course 7,698 Yards, par 72
This course is the only one played in the final two rounds and is a lot more difficult than the North course. It has five par fives in total and requires power, accurate long iron play and good scrambling.

There are a few different stats to consider. The first factor is grass type. The greens here are poa annua which is a grass that tends to be a bit bumpy. The local Californians will certainly take a shine to this grass type so keep in mind locals that are in good form at present.
The total driving stat is also important, as missing the fairway can be extremely costly. There are a lot of slopes and greenside bunkers around the greens so good GIR and scrambling stats will be other important stats to consider.

The Top Two in the Market:
Tiger Woods has a phenomenal record on this course with a total of eight wins which includes the 2008 US Open in which he famously played with a broken leg. His recent performances include a third place finish at The Turkish Airlines Open back in November and a second place finish at The Northwestern Mutual in mid-December.

Phil Mickelson is another player that has a good past at Torrey Pines recording three wins and two runner ups. He starts his first event of the PGA Tour this week and should be feeling confident after an impressive second place finish in Abu Dhabi last week, which included a superb 63 in the third round.

Tiger Woods Torrey Pines

Tiger Woods 5/2
He just simply has to be backed this week in my opinion. A lot of you will be saying he is too short a price and I agree 100% percent, however, his record around this golf course simply cannot be ignored. As I mentioned above, Tiger has a superb record at Torrey Pines with eight wins in total including the 2008 US Open. He also holds the course record on the South Course with 62 strokes and always seems to dominate here.

This course requires a lot of power to get around the massive 7,698 yards, accurate long iron play will be important with good GIR stats and good scrambling. Tiger ticks all of those boxes. His current form is decent recently finishing second to Zach Johnson at The Northwestern Mutual back in mid-December.
He was a bit unlucky not to win with Zach Johnson’s fabulous short game clinching him victory after holing a superb chip shot from the drop zone. He also had a good performance in Turkey finishing in third place The Turkish Airlines Open back in November.

Statswise last season he ranked seventh in approaches from 200+, third in GIR percentage from 150-200 yards, first in approaches from 150-175, third in approaches from 200-225 and 17th in total driving. With all of these stats in mind, it’s easy to see why Tiger always dominates here year in year out. He is always the man to beat at Torrey Pines and is a 100% must for me this week.

Bubba Watson 33/1
I was quite surprised to see Bubba at such a big price here this week. In only three events played so far this season, Bubba has two top ten’s which came at the WGC-HSBC Champions in Shanghai where he finished in tied eighth and The Northwestern Mutual where he finished 3rd in mid-December. He is another player that has a good record around this course with a win in 2011 and a 13th place finish in 2012.

He is one of the biggest hitters on tour ranking fifth in driving distance hitting it an average 303.7 yards last season. As I mentioned above, power is going to be a key factor on this course and Bubba certainly fits the bill in that department. He also ranked fifth in GIR and 22nd in total driving last season which will work in his favour on this course. He is great value for a previous winner and is another player who fits the bill here at Torrey Pines.

Bill Haas 25/1
Haas had a great performance at the Humana Challenge last week in La Quinta shooting four superb rounds in the 60’s to finish in T6th on -23. He has had a good start to the PGA Tour season finishing T16th at The CIMB Classic, T21st at The WGC-HSBC Champions and followed that with a top 10 at The Northwestern Mutual finishing in T9th.

He has a great record on this course with three top ten finishes in his last three years. He finished T9th last year, T4th in 2012 and T9th in 2011. Statswise he ranked 21st in GIR, ninth in GIR Percentage from 200+, second in GIR between 150-175 yards and ranked an all-important 18th in scrambling last season. After a good performance at The Humana last week combined with a good previous record, Bill Haas gets my vote here.

Hunter Mahan 33/1
Mahan had a decent finish at the end of last season where he put in good performances in the FedEx Cup playoffs. He had two top 25’s at The Tour Championship and The Barclays, a top 15 at The Deutsche Bank and a top five which came at The BMW Championship in which he finished T4th. Most recently he played well in The Presidents Cup where he was part of the winning US Team. His last competitive round was in Thailand in mid-December where he finished in T13th.

Mahan has a good record on this course finishing in T15th last year, T6th in 2012 and T6th in 2011. Statswise last season he ranked eighth in total driving, 25th in GIR and 27th in strokes gained putting. He also has good GIR percentage stats ranking 10th from 125 + and second from 100-125 yards hitting 95% of greens. Hunter is another player that seems generously priced and is certainly worth considering here this week given his history.

Jason Day 33/1
Jason Day had a good performance here last year finishing in a respectable T9th shooting a superb 66 in the final round. He always plays well in the bigger events on the PGA Tour and has proven he can compete at the very top level. He won the World Cup of Golf back at the end of November at Royal Melbourne shooting ten under par for the singles tournament. Day had a solid finish to the 2012/2013 season playing well in the FedEx Cup playoffs.

He finished T13th at The Deutsche Bank, T4th at The BMW and T14th at The Tour Championship. Looking at his stats from last year, he ranked 16th in driving distance hitting it an average of just under 300 yards off the tee. He also ranked 11th in scoring average and 27th in scrambling. With good power and distance and good scrambling, Day could be a big threat here this week. He only has one win on the PGA Tour and this could be the ideal place to get his second.

Final Selections:
Tiger Woods 4pts to win
Bubba Watson 1.5pts/3 pts EW
Bill Haas 1.5pts/3 pts EW
Hunter Mahan 1 pt/2 pts EW
Jason Day 1 pt/2 pts EW
Total staked: 14 pts

Good luck and enjoy the golf.

Doublebogey6

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Humana Challenge Betting Preview

Humana Challenge 2014 pic 1

The Course:

There are three courses being played in this tournament this week.
These are:

La Quinta Country Club – Par 72, 7060 yards and has four par fives in total. It also has tree lined fairways with some water features that come into play.
PGA West (Palmer Private) – Par 72, 6,930 yards and has a total of five par fives. Also has some water features that come into play.
Nicklaus Private at PGA West – Par 72, 6,924 yards. This is a little more difficult than the other two in that it has undulations on the fairways which could throw up some tricky lies but overall is not too difficult.

Bill and Gary Humana Challenge 2014 pic 2

All three of these golf courses are not that tricky overall with the average score of the winner around the 25 under mark. Watch out for players that putt well and have good birdie stats. A lot of the par fives will be makeable in two, even for the average hitters. Also be on the lookout for players that dominate the par fives, so good par five performance stats will be worth looking at.

it’s also important to consider players that played well last week in Waialae and have good previous form in this event. Good putters, par five stats, driving accuracy and birdie stats will be of particular importance. It’s a tough one to call so approach with caution.

Harris English 20/1
I have been looking for reasons not to back Harris English yet again for the third week running but I simply cannot come up with one. The main issue is his short price here. He had another great finish at The Sony where he came solo fourth. English made a total of 23 birdies last week at Waialae ranking in tied second. He started to with two 66’s and finished with two 67’s. That’s pretty consistent if you ask me.

In his last four performances in official events, he has a win at The OHL Classic, finished in tied 11th at The Hyundai Tournament of Champions and Fourth at The Sony. Not to mention he won the Franklin Templeton Shootout with Matt Kuchar in between those events.

Statswise he seems to be well suited here ranking 12th in birdie average, sixth in scoring average, 26th in GIR, 23rd in par 5 birdie or better leaders and 18th in birdie or better conversion percentage. He also ranks 10th in putting from 20-25 feet. In his two previous performances in this tournament he has come 19th in 2012 and 65th in 2013.

As I mentioned above, it will take a lot of birdies here to win this week and I reckon this could be your man. He is on a great run of form at present and is putting and stats seem to suit here this week.

Ryan Palmer 40/1
Palmer had a good week at The Sony finishing in a tie for eighth shooting three rounds in the 60’s including a superb opening round 65. He hasn’t had the best start to the season missing the cut at The Shriners and followed that with a T53 finish at The CIMB Classic in Malaysia.

However after blowing the cobwebs off from the start of the season, I believe he’s now in his stride and proved that with a steady performance last week ranking fourth in GIR. Last season he ranked sixth birdie average, 10th in driving distance and had good par 5 performance stats ranking in a respectable 26th.

This season he ranks 24th in driving distance and 11th in par 5 birdie or better leaders. He has two top six finishes in his last three starts here finishing in tied sixth last year and fourth in 2011.
Coming off a good performance last week with a good history in this event, Ryan Palmer gets my vote here at a generous 40/1.

Billy Horchel 28/1
Other than the Frys.com at the beginning of the new season, Billy has had a pretty solid start to his 2013/2014 campaign. He followed his poor performance at the Frys with a tied 11th finish at the CIMB Classic in Malaysia finishing well on the Sunday shooting a solid 67. He then played in the HSBC Champions in Shanghai finishing in T34th and also played well at The Franklin Templton Shootout in mid-December with partner Chris DiMarco where they finished in 4th.

Horchel started 2014 well with a tied 6th finish in Kapalua in the Hyundai Tournament of Champions shooting 68, 66 on the weekend.

He had a good performance in this tournament last year finishing in tied 10th and has the stats to go very well here. He ranks third in driving accuracy, ninth in birdie average, sixth in par breakers, ninth in birdie or better conversion percentage, fifth in putts from 5-10 feet and second in putts from 5-15 feet. As I mentioned above, good putting and good birdie stats are the key this week and Billy ticks all the boxes for me.

Jason Kokrak 66/1
Jason Kokrak has had a very good start to the PGA Tour season. He opened the season with a tied 12th finish at The Frys, missed the cut at The Shriners Hospital Open, Finished in a tie for tenth at The McGladrey and finished in a respectable tie for 20th last week at The Sony. He came close on more than one occasion last season finishing in a tie for third at The AT&T National and had a great performance at The Barclays back in September finishing in a tie for ninth.

He played well here last year finishing in a tie for eighth which included an opening 63 at the La Quinta course. Kokrak’s stats also seem to suit this course. Last season he ranked sixth in driving distance, second in total eagles with a total of 13 for the season, 15th in par 5 performance and 22nd in par 5 birdie or better conversion percentage. This season he ranks second in driving distance an third in scoring average.

His stats combined with a good previous performance and great current form make him a good bet at a very generous price here.

Kevin Na 66/1
Kevin Na has had a bit of a mixed bag of results this season with two missed cuts, two top 10’s and a top 40 at The OHL Classic where he shot a very impressive 65 in the final round. After shooting a disappointing opening round of 75, he then went on to shoot 67,64,64 on the weekend at The Frys.com Open to finish in tied third.

Na has played well at The Humana in the past with two top 10 finishes in 2010 (T8) and 2011 (T5). He also recorded his second top 10 of the season last week finishing in tied 8th in Kapalua where he ranked second in GIR.

He also has good putting stats ranking 17th in strokes gained putting, first in putting from 10-15 feet and 12th in putting from 5-15 feet. He also ranks 32nd in GIR and 28th in par breakers. Overall he is a horse for the course and is loves playing on the west coast. At 66/1 he is very hard to ignore considering his previous form and good finish last week at Waialae.

Final Selections:
Harris English 1.5 pts EW/ 3pts total
Ryan Palmer 1 pt EW/ 2pts total
Billy Horchel 1 pt EW/ 2pts total
Jason Kokrak 1 pt EW/ 2pts total
Kevin Na 1 pt EW/ 2 pt total

Total staked = 11 pts

Good luck and enjoy the golf,

Doublebogey6
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Sony Open Betting Preview

Waialae Country Club, Honalulu, Hawaii
Par 70, 7,044 yards

The Course

Waialae is a par 70 and is a little different from Kapalua in that there is a lot more rough on this course. A player must hit many greens in regulation to be in contention as the greens here are tiny compared to the generously sized greens last week at The Plantation Course.

Although these fairways are a tighter, there are also a lot of fairway bunkers to contend with so driving accuracy will be of major importance this week. The tiny greens are Bermuda grass and are guarded by hazards so look out for good GIR stats, good scramblers and good putters. Also watch out for good wind players as Waialae is another course that can be affected by the wind.

Harris English 28/1
Harris Engalish 2
I have decided to go with my gut and back Harris English for the second week running after his steady performance finishing in a tie for 11th at The Hyundai. On his debut appearance here last year he came in a respectable tie for ninth. English is having a fantastic season so far with a win already under his belt coming at El Camaleon in the OHL Classic and followed that with a sensational performance at The Franklin Templeton Shootout with Matt Kuchar.

He won his first PGA Tour event at the FedEx St Jude Classic at TPC Southwind, which also has Bermuda greens, back in June and followed that with two top 15 finishes at The John Deere Classic and The Open Championship.

He also has favourable stats for this course ranking 18th in GIR, 18th in Scoring Average and 21st in Total Driving. He’s a player that is on a great run of form at the moment and always seems to play well on par 70’s and Bermuda greens. He is certainly one to watch here this week.

Brian Gay 45/1
Brian Gay 1
Brian Gay had a decent week in Kapalua finishing in a tie for 13th which included a below average second round 76. However he did follow that up with a 65 in round three and a respectable three under par 70 in the final round to finish on 11 under. Gay is not the longest player on tour but he makes up for it with a superb touch around the greens.

He also has a good record at this event over the last few years with a tied sixth finish in 2012, tied 13th in 2011 and a tied fifth finish in 2009. He is, as they say, a horse for the course. He has had a mediocre season so far but had a good finish at the McGladrey Classic at Sea Island, which is another par 70 and quite similar to Waialae Country Club.

As I mentioned above, this course is made for accuracy off the tee, good putters and decent scramblers. Gay ranks fourth in Strokes Gained Putting, third in putting from 15-20 feet, second in putting from 25 feet and 10th in putting from 5-15 feet, not to mention ranking 10th in scrambling. This could be a big week for Brian Gay and I am more than happy to back him at a generous 45/1.

Tim Clark 25/1
Tim Clark 1
Even though he didn’t play last week in the Hyundai, don’t be surprised if you see Tim Clark loitering around the top five in the leaderboard this week. He has a good record in this event finishing in second last year and second in 2011. He also had a good finish in 2009 finishing in a respectable tie for 12th. He is another horse for the course, with this course in particular, setting up very well for a player like Tim Clark.

He is another player with a mixed bag of results so far this season with his only top five finish coming at The McGladrey Classic which, as I mentioned above in the Brian Gay piece, is a very similar set up to Waialae.

Statswise Clark ranks 11th in Driving Accuracy, 21st in Scrambling, first in GIR Percentage from 75-100 yards and 10th from 100-150 yards. He also ranks ninth in Fairway Proximity and fourth in Proximity to the hole. Previous form coupled with good stats make Tim Clark a good choice here this week.

Charles Howell 20/1
Charles Howell 1
Howell has a fantastic record in this event over the last few years. He finished in a tie for third last year, tied second in 2012, tied fifth in 2010 and fourth in 2009. He is also playing super golf at the moment with four top seven finishes in his last six events which included a great finish at El Cameleon at The OHL Classic in which he finished in a tie for sixth.

The more I look at Howell’s stats the more I think he is so well suited to this course. He is one of the bigger hitters on tour hitting it an average of 301 yards off the tee. He ranks 11th in GIR, second in Scoring Average, eighth in Total Driving and first in Scrambling.

Stats combined with a great record on this course and good current form make Howell a big danger man here this week.

Zach Johnson 11/1
Zach Johnson 1
What can you say about Zach Johnson at the moment? He beat Tiger in a playoff in The Northwestern Mutual at the beginning of December with a superb chip in on the 18th after a questionable shank into the hazard. Wins last week at The Hyundai after shooting a six under final round 66 to come from two behind and beat the likes of Jordan Spieth, Webb Simpson and Dustin Johnson (To my disappointment because I had Webb and DJ backed!). So that makes it two wins in his last two starts. That doesn’t happen very often that’s for sure.

At the end of the 2013 season, Zach Johnson had won The BMW Championship at Conway Farms, was beaten by Jordan Spieth in a playoff at TPC Deere Run and didn’t finish any worse than eighth in the other five events.

The guy is on a superb run of form at the moment and I wouldn’t be surprised if he won here this week as this course sets up very well for him. He ranks second in Driving Accuracy and 11th in GIR, he also won here in 2009 which makes him an even bigger threat in my opinion.

Final Selections:

Harris English 1.5pts EW/ 3 pts total
Brian Gay 1 pt EW/ 2 pts total
Tim Clark 1 pt EW/ 2 pts total
Charles Howell 1 pt EW/ 2 pts total
Zach Johnson 1.5 pts EW/ 3 pts total
Total Staked: 12 pts

Good luck and enjoy the golf,

Doublebogey6

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