Valero Texas Open Betting Preview 2014

Texas Open 2014 pic 1

TPC San Antonio, Texas
7,435 yards, par 72

The Course
TPC San Antonio is a tricky par 72 with four par 5’s and four par 3’s. This course is a tough challenge with narrow fairways and plenty of very deep bunkers. There is also a lot of vegetation where there can be some unplayable lies. Kevin Na took a 16 on the ninth after struggling to free himself from the rocks and vegetation.

Driving accuracy is one important stat to consider on this course as there are many narrow fairways and deep penal rough to contend with. Also hitting accurate iron shots into the right areas of these tricky undulating greens will be important. Par 5 and par 3 scoring, proximity to the hole and strokes gained putting are also worth looking at as the greens here are tricky Bermuda greens and will require a very good putter.

Brendan Steele 33/1
Brendan Steele is playing solid golf at the moment and is a player with a good history at TPC San Antonio with a win here in 2011 and a fourth in 2012. He has been playing well recently with good performances coming in Phoenix finishing T6th, T10th at the Northern Trust Open and a respectable T20th finish in The Arnold Palmer Invitational in Bay Hill last week.

Statswise, Steele ranks third in total driving, 16th in scrambling, sixth in GIR from 200+yards, 11th in approaches from 200-225 yards and fifth in approaches from 250 yards, which will come in handy on the four par 5’s. He also ranks 19th in fairway proximity and seventh in scrambling from the rough. Steele has a good history on this course and is playing steady golf at the moment which suggests he should go well here this week.

Jason Kokrak 33/1
If it weren’t for a disappointing final round 73 in Bay Hill last week, who knows how close Jason Kokrak would have come to winning last week’s Arnold Palmer Invitational. He played superbly well throughout the week and has shown good form in his last two events.

Along with his 4th last week at Bay Hill, he also finished T14th at The Valspar Championship, 15th in Phoenix and T19th at Pebble Beach earlier in February so he is showing signs of good form and consistency in his last six events.

Kokrak is one of the biggest hitters on tour ranking sixth in driving distance hitting it an average of 306 yards off the tee. He also ranks 23rd in birdie average, 18th in par 3 birdie or better leaders, fifth in approaches from 200 yards and first in approaches from 275 yards. Kokrak has the distance to dominate the four par 5’s on this course and should be coming into this week feeling confident after a great performance last week at Bay Hill. He played well here last year finishing T15th but comes in a much better player this time around.

Ryan Palmer 25/1
Ryan Palmer is playing well this season and comes into this week in on the back of a runner up finish at The Honda Classic. He had another runner up finish at the Humana Challenge which included an opening round 64 and a closing round 63 to finish on 26 under par in total for the tournament. Palmer played well here last year finishing T15th, which could have been a lot better if it weren’t for carding a disappointing final round 74.

However I think he will be coming here this year feeling a little more confident after playing well at The Honda. Palmer ranks 13th in total driving, 19th in GIR, third in par 5 birdie or better leaders, ninth in birdie or better conversion percentage and 18th in proximity to the hole. He also ranks 27th in approaches from 200+ yards and first in GIR from 175-200 yards which will be a big plus on these par 5’s.

Texas Open pic 3

Cameron Tringale 60/1
Tringale has played well in this event in the past finishing eighth in 2012 and fifth in 2011 so he’s your typical horse for the course. He has three top 15’s in his last six starts, which includes a T12th at The Phoenix Open, T13 at The AT&T in Pebble Beach and T12th at The Northern Trust Open.

Most recently he finished in T25th in the Valspar Championship opening with a disappointing 74 but finished well with a 71 and two 70’s in rounds three and four. There were good signs last week at Bay Hill where he started with a first round 70 and finished with a 71 finishing on two over par for the tournament.

He has good par 5 performance stats ranking fifth which should be a big help here. Tringale is showing signs of good form and has a good history around this course which suggests he could go well here this week at a decent price.

Freddie Jacobson 28/1
A popular choice among us punters this week and it’s easy to see why. Freddie has finished no worse than 20th in his last three starts. He played well at The Honda Classic finishing in a respectable T12th, T20th at The Valspar and a T10 in Bay Hill last week. If it weren’t for a three bogey finish on the back nine last week, he would have finished a lot better.

Freddie is another horse for the course here at TPC San Antonio finishing 15th here last year, 18th in 2012, fifth in 2011 and second in 2010. His putting stats are particularly good ranking seventh in strokes gained putting, second in putts inside 5 feet, 16th in putts from 20-25 feet and sixth in putts from 3-5 feet, which will be a big plus on these tricky undulating Bermuda greens.

Charley Hoffman 28/1
Hoffman has had some great performances so far this season. He was T9th at The Humana Challenge at the end of January, which included an opening round 64. He then followed that with another good performance at the Farmers with a T7th. Hoffman has shown some good recent form playing well at The Northern Trust Open a couple of weeks ago finishing in T12th.

In his last four starts at TPC San Antonio, he has finished T3 last year, T13 in 2012, T2 in 2011 and T13 again in 2010. Statswise he ranks 23rd in total driving, 23rd in GIR, 12th in par 3 birdie or better leaders, sixth in par 3 performance, fifth in approaches from 175-200 and 16th in approaches from 275+. With good previous performances and good current form Charley gets my vote here this week.

Final selections:

Brendan Steele 1 pt ew/2 pts total
Jason Kokrak 1 pt ew/2 pts total
Ryan Palmer 1 pt ew/2 pts total
Cameron Tringale 1 pt ew/ 2 pts total
Freddie Jacobson 1 pt ew/ 2 pts total
Charley Hoffman 1 pt ew/ 2 pts total
Total staked = 12 pts

Good luck and enjoy the golf,

DB

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The guys over at Golf Betting System are running a Majors Competition again for 2014 and have a £150 or currency equivalent up for grabs from bet365. The competition is already up and running with only 14 days left to enter!

All of the details on how you can enter the competition are here: http://www.golfbettingsystem.co.uk/golf-majors-competition-2014-rules.htm

Good luck!!

Arnold Palmer Invitational Betting Preview

Arnold Palmer Invitational 2014

Thursday Mar 20 – Sunday Mar 23, 2014 Bay Hill Club & Lodge, Orlando, Florida
Par 72, 7,419 yards

The Course

This course is a typical Florida track with plenty of water and greenside bunkers to contend with. The course layout was changed in 2010 from a par 70 to a par 72 and has a total of four par 5’s. The reason for this was to allow the players to give themselves more opportunities to make birdies. The fairways at Bay Hill are quite tight so be on the lookout for good driving accuracy stats.

Good par 5 performance stats will certainly be a big plus here with good ball striking, scrambling, putting and GIR also worth considering. Course history will also be important so be keep an eye on guys with good previous form at Bay Hill.

Graeme McDowell 25/1
Gmac is a man in form at the moment with three top 10’s in his last four starts. He carded a seventh place at Pebble Beach a couple of weeks back and followed that with a T5th at the Accenture Matchplay, where he was the comeback king against Gary Woodland. Most recently, he had a good week at the Cadillac and finished in T9th for the tournament so it’s fair to say he’s playing well.

McDowell has had good performances here in the past coming second in 2012 and second again in 2005. Statswise he ranks 31st in driving accuracy, sixth in strokes gained putting and eighth in par 4 performance. He also has good putting stats ranking first from 5-10 feet and tenth from 5-15 feet, which will help on these tricky Bermuda greens. Gmac is in great form at the moment and there’s no reason why that should not continue here this week.

Kevin Na 40/1
Kevin Na is playing good golf with two top five’s in his last three starts. He played well last week at Copperhead on a course that proved to be a real test for the players. He shot a 70 in the first round and followed that with a couple of 68’s in rounds two and three and shot a final round of 72 finishing just one stroke behind the eventual winner John Senden. A couple of weeks before at Pebble Beach, he shot an impressive final round 69 to finish in T4th.

Na also had good performances earlier in the season with a T3 at The Fry’s and a T8 at The Sony Open in Hawaii so he is certainly showing some steady form. He has had some great performances here a Bay Hill in previous years finishing fourth in 2012, second in 2010 and 11th in 2009.

Statswise, he led the field last week in driving accuracy and scrambling and ranks 23rd in strokes gained putting, sixth in par 4 performance and 20th in par 5 performance. Stats combined with good previous performances on this course and good current form make Na hard to resist at a generous 40/1.

Bubba Watson 14/1
Bubba is another player sowing some excellent form at present with six top 10’s in his last seven starts including a win at The Northern Trust Open four weeks ago, which included two 64’s in rounds three and four. Most recently, he played well at the WGC Matchplay in Arizona beating Mikko Illonen and Jonas Blixt on his way to a T9th.
He also had a good week at the Blue Monster at the WGC Cadillac shooting a superb 68 in the final round to finish in T2nd. Watson has good course history here with two good finishes in the last two years, coming in 14th last year and T4th in 2012.

Statswise Bubba ranks first in driving distance hitting it an average of 318 yards off the tee. He also ranks 20th in strokes gained putting, eighth in par 4 performance, eighth in approaches from 175-200 yards, 20th in approaches from 250-275 yards and eighth in scrambling. His putting stats are also quite good, ranking first in putts from 15-25 feet, third in putts from 15-20 feet and 11th in putts from inside 5 feet. Watson is playing super golf at present and I for one wouldn’t be surprised if he got his second win in four starts this week.

Arnold Palmer Invitational 2014 Bunker

Zach Johnson 20/1
Zach has come off the boil a bit over the last few weeks with some mediocre performances but I reckon he’ll be fresh after taking a break last week. Johnson had a super start to the 2013/2014 season with a win coming in December at The Northwestern Mutual Challenge, holing that superb chip into the 18th green to force Tiger into a playoff, which he won.

Johnson then followed that with another win at The Hyundai Tournament of Champions in Hawaii in January finishing on a total of 19 under par for the tournament. He then had yet another good performance the following week at The Sony Open and finished in T8th.

He ticks all the statistical boxes for this course ranking fourth in driving accuracy, eighth in GIR, 17th in scrambling and third and fourth in par 3 and par four performance. Zach is another player that has good history at this course finishing in 11th 2012, third in 2009 and eighth in 2005.

Will MacKenzie 50/1
MacKenzie is playing great golf at present with three top 10’s in his last five starts. He very nearly got himself into the winners circle last week at The Valspar Championship shooting a final round of 69 on his way to a fourth place finish. He also had a great week at The Honda Classic finishing T6th and had a T7th a couple of weeks before in Torrey Pines at The Farmers.

MacKenzie has played here three times before missing the cut twice, with T44th his best finish in 2008. However he seems to be a different player this season. He ticks all the boxes stats wise, ranking 24th in total driving, 15th in strokes gained, 41st in GIR, 16th in par 5 birdie or better leaders, sixth in par 5 performance and first in GIR from 15-175 yards. Good value for a guy in top form at the moment.

Matt Every 66/1
Every is playing well at the moment with two top 10’s in his last three starts. He played well at the Northern Trust Open shooting three 69’s and a 67 in round four on his way to a T6th in the middle of February. He also played solid last week at the Valspar Championship finishing in a respectable T8th and two under par for the tournament. Every has played here four times since 2010 with T24th in 2012 being his best performance.

However I think he is coming here in great form and has the stats to really suit this course. He ranks seventh in strokes gained putting, seventh in par 5 birdie or better leaders, fourth in par 5 performance and fifth in fairway proximity. Every is great value here this week and a real contender.

Final Selections:
Graeme McDowell 1.5 pts/ 3 pts EW
Kevin Na 1pt/2 pts EW
Bubba Watson 1.5 pts/3 pts EW
Zach Johnson 1 pt/2 pts EW
Will MacKenzie 1pt/2 pts EW
Matt Every 1pt/2 pts EW
Total staked = 14 pts

Good luck and enjoy the golf,
DB

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Valspar Championship Betting Preview

Valspar Championshp pic 1

Copperhead Course, Innisbrook Resort, Palm Harbour, Florida
Par 71, 7,340 yards

The Course
The Copperhead course is a twisting, tree lined course with many doglegs to contend with. Players that can work the ball both directions off the tee should have a big advantage here. This course features three tricky closing holes on the back 9 in the shape of 16, 17 and 18 which are called the “Snake Pit” where birdies are few and far between.

This course boasts five par 3’s and four par 5’s so be on the lookout for good par 3 and par 5 performance stats. The fairways at Copperhead are tight and winding with good, all round driving stats also of particular importance. The greens here are Bermuda greens and some are quite small and tricky to read so be on the lookout for good GIR stats and GIR from other than the fairway another stat that’s worth looking at.

Harris English 18/1
Harris English is having a super season so far with a win already tucked away in the trophy cabinet which came at the OHL Classic at Myakoba back in November, where he carded an impressive 21 under par in total. He has two top 10’s in his last three starts famously beating the likes of Rory Mcilroy and Lee Westwood on his way to a T9th at the Matchplay in Arizona. He also had a good week at The Northern Trust Open finishing in T10th and 9 under for the tournament.

Stats wise he ranks 11th in total driving, sixth in GIR, fourth in par 3 performance, third in par 5 performance and fifth in GIR percentage other than the fairway. English played well here last year and finished in T7th for the tournament. If it weren’t for a disappointing third round 73, it could have been a different week for him. With a good performance last year and steady current form, he could be the man to beat here this week.

Luke Donald 22/1
He was unfortunate last week at Doral with the Blue Monster getting the better of him shooting a disappointing 82 in the second round, which took him out of contention. Although he did follow that up with a 72 in round three and shot a respectable final round of 69 to finish T25th.

Donald has three top 10′s here in the last four years including a win in 2012. He had a great performance last year finishing fourth and a sixth in 2010. He has had a mixed bag of results so far this season on both the PGA and European tours. He played well at the DP World Championship in Dubai in November coming in T5th and has shown signs of coming back to form playing well at The Honda Classic the week before last carding a 5 under par total to finish T8th. Luke clearly likes this course and has the history to prove that.

Tampa Bay Championship - Round One

Jim Furyk 28/1
Furyk was another player to fall victim to the blue monster last week and finished in a disappointing T62nd. However, he played very well in the matchplay in Arizona the week before beating the likes of Chris Kirk and Charl Schwartzel to finish in T5th for the tournament. He has had some mediocre performances so far with a top 25 at The Northern Trust Open back in mid-February and a 8th place at The Northwestern Mutual in December.

His record on this course over the last four years is extremely impressive. He won here at Copperleaf in 2010, 13th in 2011, 2nd in 2012 and 7th last year. Last season, Furyk ranked fourth in driving accuracy, 14th in GIR, 12th in par 3 performance and first in proximity to the hole. Furyk is another player who likes this course and these tight fairways should suit his game down to the ground.

KJ Choi 40/1
KJ has had a decent season so far with two top 15’s in his last four starts. He had a great performance at The Farmers at the end of January and finished in T2nd, which included a poor opening round 74. Most recently, he had a good week at the Northern Trust Open finishing in a respectable T12th for the tournament.

Choi has won this event twice in 2002 and 2006. He has also notched up two top 10’s finishing second in 2010 and sixth in 2007. Staswise he ranks 49th in GIR, 17th in scoring average, 17th in par 5 birdie or better leaders and 16th in proximity to the hole. Previous performances combined with good current form make KJ a good bet here this week.

Russell Knox 50/1
Knox has had a super 2014 so far with three top 15’s in his last six starts. He came close to getting his first PGA Tour victory at The Honda Classic a couple of weeks ago only to be beaten in a playoff by Russell Henley. He also had a great performance at The Farmers at the end of January shooting a total of six under to finish in T10th, which could have been an entirely different story if he didn’t have a third round 74.

He ranks 13th in driving accuracy, 14th in GIR, first in par 3 performance, first in proximity to the hole and sixth in rough proximity. Knox is playing well at the moment and losing the playoff to Henley could give him the confidence to put in a huge performance here this week.

Final selections:
Harris English 1.5pts/ 3pts EW total
Luke Donald 1.5pts/3pts EW total
Jim Furyk 1pt/2pts EW total
KJ Choi 1pt/2pts EW total
Russell Knox 1pt/2pts EW total

Total staked: 12 pts

Good luck and enjoy the golf,
DB

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WGC – Cadillac Championship Betting Preview

WGC Cadillac pic logo

Blue Monster Course, Doral Resort, Florida
Par 72, 7,481 yards

The Course
This course has undergone some serious surgery in the last two years with a certain Mr. Trump pumping 250 million big ones into the course to add length and increase the overall difficulty of the blue monster.

Over the years driving accuracy and distance have been of particular importance in this event. With this course now over 7,400 yards in length, it will be even more important so be on the lookout for guys with good driving stats.

There will be a difference noticed straight away by the players as the first has increased in length by 80 yards and is now a par 5. Water will feature on the par 3 15th and could potentially offer some final round drama come Sunday. There has been more water features added to this course so be on the lookout for good GIR stats.

Adam Scott 11/1
After coming back after a seven week break, Adam Scott looked very solid last week at PGA National showing no signs of rust. He finished in a very respectable T12th shooting two 69’s a 68 and a 70 to card four under par in total. Before last week at the Honda, he played well at the Sony Open in Hawaii with a T8th on 10 under.

He also had a T6th at The Hyundai Tournament of Champions shooting two 70’s and two 69’s to finish 14 under so it’s fair to say his game is in great shape. Scott has a good record here with a third in 2013, 13th in 2012 and 6th in 2011, not to mention a 9th place in 2008.

Statswise last season he ranked 23rd in driving distance, 11th in GIR and 14th in total driving. Overall Scott looks a huge threat here with a great previous record and good current form.

Dustin Johnson 14/1
Dustin Johnson is a player that’s showing superb form at the moment with three top six’s in his last four starts. He came second to Bubba Watson at The Northern Trust Open which included two 66’s to card 13 under for the tournament. He was also second at The AT&T Pro Am at Pebble Beach shooting a superb final round 66 to finish on 10 under for the tournament.

Johnson also had a win at the HSBC Champions in Shanghai back in November shooting a final round 66 to beat Ian Poulter and Graeme McDowell. He had another great performance at the Hyundai Tournament of Champions in January with a T6th.

Statswise he ranks seventh in driving distance, first in GIR, first in par 4 birdie or better leaders, first in birdie or better conversion percentage and second in par 5 birdie or better leaders. His previous from over the last three years reads, 12th in 2013, 35th in 2012 and second in 2011. With a new course layout, good previous form and great current form, it’s hard to bet against Dustin Johnson this week.

Keegan Bradley 28/1
Keegan is having a steady enough season so far racking up the top 20’s with seven in his last nine starts. He played very well at PGA National last week finishing in T12th, four under par for the tournament which included a disappointing final round of 73. If it weren’t for the five bogeys on Sunday, it could have been an entirely different story.

Bradley has been the model of consistency with a T20 at The Northern Trust Open, T16th at The Farmers, T18th at The Humana and a T11th finish at The WGC HSBC Champions. Keegan has two top 10’s here in two appearances with a seventh place in 2013 and an eighth in 2012.

Statswise he ranks 18th in driving distance, 63rd in GIR, fifth in total driving, 17th in par 4 birdie or better leaders and sixth in scrambling. With good past performances and steady current form, he’s worth backing here.

WGC Cadillac pic first tee

Bubba Watson 20/1
What a season Bubba is having so far with four top 10’s in his last five starts including a win at The Northern Trust Open, which included two superb rounds of 64 in round three and four. He was also T2nd at The Pheonix Open, T3rd at The Northwestern Mutual back in December and T8th at The HSBC Champions in Shanghai.

Bubba has a good previous record on this course with an 18th place finish here last year and a second place in 2011. He ranks first in driving distance, ninth in GIR, third in total driving, second in par 4 birdie or better leaders, 12th in scrambling and first in proximity to the hole.

With the added distance and super current form, this course could be made for Bubba this week.

Matt Kuchar 30/1
It’s difficult to ignore Kuchar’s previous form in this tournament. Despite a poor performance last year with a T35th, he finished eighth in 2012, fifth in 2011 and third in 2010. He also has seven top 10’s in his last eight starts. He was knocked out of the matchplay by an in form Jordan Spieth to finish T9th a couple of weeks ago.

He missed the cut at Riviera which was his first tournament back after taking a holiday. He had a great run of top 10’s before that with a T8th at The Sony in Hawaii, T6th at The Hyundai Tournament of Champions and had yet another solid week at The Northwestern Mutual in December with a T3rd.

Kuchar isn’t the longest player on tour hitting it an average of 280 yards off the tee but he is quite accurate, ranking 44th in driving accuracy. He also ranks 38th in GIR, 20th in par 5 birdie or better leaders, 20th in par 4 performance and 10th in scrambling. A typical horse for the course and is on a great run of top 10’s at the moment.

Luke Donald 40/1
To be honest I was surprised to see Donald at such a big price this week given his previous form at this event over the years. Donald has two top 10’s here in the last three years. He had a great performance in 2012 finishing sixth and had another sixth in 2011.

He has had a mixed bag of results so far this season on both the PGA and European tours. He played well at the DP World Championship in Dubai in November coming in T5th, ten strokes behind the eventual winner Henrik Stenson. Donald is showing signs of coming back to form and played well at PGA National last week finishing T8th and ranked third in strokes gained putting for the week. At 40/1 he is great value with great each way potential.

Final Selections
Adam Scott 2pts/4pts ew
Dustin Johnson 2pts/4pts ew
Keegan Bradley 1pt/ 2pts ew
Bubba Watson 1pt/2pts ew
Matt Kuchar 1pt/2pts ew
Luke Donald 1pt/2pts ew
Total staked: 16 pts

Good Luck and enjoy the golf,
Follow me on Twitter @Doublebogey63