Quicken Loans National Betting Preview

Congressional pic 1

Congressional Country Club (Blue Course), Bethesda, Maryland
Par 71, 7,569 yards

The Blue course at Congressional Country Club is a par 71 and measures just over 7,500 yards. This course has only three par 5’s and four par 3’s. It has 11 par 4’s, three of which measure over 490 yards so it will certainly suit the big hitters.

Congressional Country Club hosted this tournament from 2007 – 2009. Then Aronimink Golf Club in Pennsylvania played host in 2010 and 2011 due to the US Open taking place in Congressional in 2011. The course underwent some changes in design with some new trees added to make it more difficult for the US Open. The greens were also renovated with the poa annua grass being replaced with bentgrass.

There will be an emphasis on driving accuracy as well as distance on this course as the fairways are rolling and tree lined so accuracy will be key. The rough is quite a bit thicker than what the players are used to and can be quite penalizing if you miss the fairways. There are also roughly 100 bunkers so hitting the greens in regulation along with a good putting will be of key importance here. The greens are big but can be extremely fast so a good touch will be a big advantage.

Since 2007, the average winning score here has been between -8 and -13 so the scoring won’t be too low. This course is ranked one of the most difficult on the PGA Tour and should be a huge challenge for the players this week.

Jason Day 12/1
Jason Day comes into this week with three good performances in his last four events. He had a good week at The Masters in Augusta recording a respectable T20th, finishing two over par for the tournament. He then travelled to Pinehurst for the US Open and played solidly for the four days finishing on one over par for the tournament getting himself into T4th. Last week at The Travellers he also played well finishing in T18th which included a super final round 65.

Day has a very good record on this course over the last three years. In 2013 he finished T21st, eighth in 2012 and he also finished in second in the 2011 US Open here. With great current form and solid ball striking throughout the last few events, not to mention super previous form here, Jason Day looks well worth a look here this week.

Brandt Snedeker 25/1
Sneds looks to be playing some good golf his last two events and seems to be coming back into some good form. He had a great week in Pinehurst at The US Open shooting 69,68,72,73 finishing on two over par in total and T9th for the tournament. He followed that with another good performance last week at the Travellers finishing T11th which included an excellent final round 64.

Snedeker’s history at Congressional is pretty impressive over the last few years. Besides a missed cut in 2008, he hasn’t finished worse than 11th in his last five appearances here. He finished eighth last year, 11th in 2011, fifth in 2009 and eighth in 2007. Statswise he ranks 41st in driving accuracy, 36th in strokes gained putting and fifth in putts from 10-15 feet, which will be helpful on these greens. With a course history like Snedeker’s, it’s hard to leave him out this week.

Brendon Todd 28/1
Since winning the Byron Nelson Classic a few weeks ago, Brendon Todd has proved he is no one hit wonder and has followed that super performance with two top 10’s and a top 20 in his last three events. He played well at The Crowne Plaza at Colonial shooting four steady rounds in the 60’s to finish T5th. He had another solid week at The Memorial finishing in T8th, five strokes behind the eventual winner Hideki Matsuyama. Todd also put in three great rounds in the 60’s around Pinehurst and could have finished a lot better if it weren’t for a disappointing third round 79.

Statswise he ranks 30th in driving accuracy, seventh in strokes gained putting, fifth in par 3 performance and 21st in par 4 performance. Todd also recorded a top 15 finish here last year finishing in 13th for the week. He comes here this week in much better form and could be a big contender.

Congressional pic 2

KJ Choi 33/1
KJ is playing some good golf over his last three events. He had a good week at TPC Sawgrass at The Players Championship finishing in a respectable T13 for the week, which could have been a lot better if it weren’t for a disappointing first round 74. He then followed that with another respectable performance at The Memorial finishing in T28th. Last week at The Travellers, he played very steady opening with a couple of 65’s and finishing 69,67 to finish T2nd.

KJ is another player with a good history at this event and won it in 2007. He was also runner up to Nick Watney in 2011 when it was held in Aronimink in Pennsylvania. Statswise he ranks 10th in strokes gained putting, second in GIR from 125 yards, first in approaches from 125-150 and 15th in approaches from 150-175. Good approach stats will be key for these 11 par 4’s.

Carl Pettersson 66/1
Pettersson has caught my eye over the last couple of weeks and appears to be coming into some decent form lately. He has had two very good performances in his last two events, the first came with a T3 at The FedEx St Jude Classic at TPC Southwind where he shot two opening 67’s and finished with two 69’s to finish on eight under par for the week. He then followed that with another steady week at The Travellers finishing in T7th on 11 under par in total.

Statswise Pettersson ranks 45th in driving distance, 31st in par 4 performance, 18th in approaches from 175-200 yards and ninth in par 4 birdie or better leaders. He’s a man in good form at the moment and it could certainly continue here this week.

Final Selections
Jason Day 2pts EW/ 4 pts total
Brandt Snedeker 1.5pts EW/ 3 pts total
Brendon Todd 1.5 pts EW/ 3 pts total
KJ Choi 1 pt EW/ 2 pts total
Carl Pettersson 1 pt EW / 2 pts total
Total Staked = 14 pts

Good Luck and enjoy the golf,

DB

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Travelers Championship Betting Preview

TPC River Highlands, Cromwell, Connecticut
6,841 yards, par 70

The Course

TPC River Highlands is a small course by PGA Tour standards measuring only 6,841 yards and overlooks the Connecticut River. It has four par 3’s, two par 5’s and 12 par 4’s. These bentgrass greens will be a huge change from the treacherous turtleback greens of Pinehurst in last week’s US Open and should offer up more birdie opportunities.

There are some players in the field this week that have had great performances here over the years such as Ryan Moore (4 top 10’s), Hunter Mahan ( 3 top 10’s and a win) and Bubba Watson (3 top 10’sand a win). This suggests that previous form is certainly worth looking at.

Along with good course history, good putting, scrambling, par 4 scoring and par 3 scoring are also worth looking at here. The fairways are quite wide and forgiving so expect the scoring to be low.

There is quite a lot of water on the back 9 from holes 15-17 which play around a four acre lake which should offer quite a lot of excitement in the final round on Sunday.

Travelers Championship Bubba

Bubba Watson 12/1
It’s hard to bet against Bubba Watson here this week. He has a superb record at TPC River Highlands winning his first event on the PGA Tour here back in 2010. He also three top six’s in his last five appearances here coming fourth last year, second in 2012 and sixth in 2008.

Despite missing the cut last week at the US Open in Pinehurst, Bubba has been playing good golf lately showing very steady form. He had a great week at The WGC Cadillac and finished second on three under par at the tricky Blue Monster in Doral. He then claimed his second green jacket at The Masters in Augusta and looked completely in control of his game in the final round to finish on eight under par in total for the week. Most recently, he had a good performance at The Memorial, shooting an impressive 12 under par finishing in solo third.

Statswise Watson really seems to fit the bill here ranking sixth in GIR, first in driving distance, third in birdie average, 26th in par 3 performance and 11th in par 4 performance.

Charley Hoffman 40/1
Hoffman has had some good performances over the last few weeks recording two top 20 finishes in his last four events. He played very well at TPC Louisiana, another Pete Dye designed course, at The Zurich Classic of New Orleans at the end of April and finished in fifth. Most recently, Hoffman had a good week at The Memorial to finish in T19th, five under par for the tournament.

He is another player with a great record here and seems to be a horse for the course with two top 10’s in the last two years finishing in seventh here last year and second in 2012. Statswise he ranks ninth in GIR, 26th in strokes gained putting, sixth in birdie average and 12th in par 4 performance. He ticks a lot of the boxes on this course and looks to be great value at 40/1.

Travelers Championship pic 1

Brooks Koepka 50/1
Koepka played superbly well last week at The US Open shooting 70,68,72,71 to finish T4th and one over par for the tournament. He has played himself onto the PGA Tour for the rest of this season and next season with his performance at Pinehurst last week so that could take a lot of the preasure off coming into TPC River Highlands this week.

He has played well on the European Tour this season and came in T3rd back in February in the Dubai Desert Classic. Koepka ranks 13th in driving distance and 38th in greens in regulation on the European Tour so far this year. With the preasure off for the next two years on tour, Koepka could be a big challenger here this week in a slightly weaker field.

Brian Harman 66/1
Harmen has had some solid performances over the last few months, most notably on Pete Dye designed courses. He had a great week at the RBC Heritage at Hilton Head shooting 69,71,69,69 to finish in a respectable T7th. His form was poor for a few events after that but he came back with style playing well at The FedEx St Jude Classic at TPC Southwind finishing in T6th and seven under par for the tournament, which included an impressive 65 in round two.

Harman ticks a lot of boxes for this course ranking 37th in strokes gained putting, 11th in par 3 performance, 36th in scrambling and third in proximity to the hole. He has played well here in the past finishing in a respectable T24th in 2012 and will look to improve on that this week.

Final Selections:
Bubba Watson 2pts EW/ 4 pts total
Charley Hoffman 1 pt EW/ 2 pts total
Brooks Koepka 1pt EW/ 2 pts total
Brian Harman 1 pt EW/ 2 pts total
Total staked = 10 pts

Good luck and enjoy the golf,
DB

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US Open Betting Preview

US Open 2014 Pinehurst

Pinehurst Resort (No. 2), North Carolina
7,562 yards, par 70

The Course
The number two course at Pinehurst has two par 5’s, 12 par 4’s and four par 3’s. It was built on North Carolina’s sandhills and has tricky undulating greens with many run off area’s so a good putter will be a big requirement here in order to score well.

The rough was removed back in 2011 when the course underwent a renovation and replacing it is sandy vegetation. The fairways are not too narrow here measuring between 35-45 yards wide so driving distance and accuracy will be important as it will take a decent hitter of the ball to get around this 7,500+ yard course. Good GIR, scrambling and strokes gained putting stats will also be important.

This course has hosted the US open twice in the last 15 years, in 1999 and 2005. In 1999, Payne Stewart narrowly beat Phil Mickelson and in 2005 Michael Campbell, to everyone’s surprise, was the winner. The US Open is always notoriously tricky ranking the hardest among the four majors, but this year could be a little different in that there is no rough to contend with but the weather could be a factor.

Bubba Watson 16/1
This track looks to set up well for the big hitting Bubba. With this course measuring over 7,500 yards, Watson’s power should be hugely in his favour on this course. He has been playing good golf lately showing very steady form. He shot a 73,72,72,68 at The WGC Cadillac to finish second on three under par at the tricky Blue Monster in Doral. He then won at The Masters in Augusta beating young Jordan Spieth to the green jacket on Sunday. Last week at The Memorial, Bubba finished on 12 under par for the week to finish in solo third.

Statswise Watson really seems to fit the bill here ranking sixth in GIR, first in driving distance, second in three putt avoidance and second in ball striking. With great current form and a one major already tucked away in his trophy cabinet, Bubba could be adding another to the list come Sunday.

Sergio Garcia 30/1
Sergio has a good record in the US Open over the years with a good finish here at Pinehurst in 2005 coming third. He has been playing good golf lately with three top 10’s in his last five events on the PGA Tour. He had a good week at The Houston Open back in April to finish solo third on 13 under for the tournament. He also played well on a course that he has consistently played well on the last few years, TPC Sawgrass finishing again in solo third.

Garcia has played well in North Carolina in the past winning the Wyndham Championship back in 2011. Statswise he ranks eighth in GIR, fifth in scrambling, 26th in total putting and 11th in ball striking. With good previous form on this course combined with good current form, Sergio looks worth a bet here at 30/1.

Jordan Spieth 25/1
Spieth has been playing well all season and has particularly stood up to the plate at the bigger events. He has two top fives in his last six events, the first coming at his debut in Augusta at The Masters. He played well all week shooting a very steady 71,70,70,72 to finish in T2nd. He did briefly scare Bubba Watson when he holed out of a bunker early in the final round to join him on top of the leaderboard, but a few bogeys followed that took him out of contention.

He also had a great week at The Players in Sawgrass finishing in T4th and ten under for the tournament. Most recently, he had good performances at The Crowne Plaza and The Memorial finishing T14th and T19th.
Spieth ranks 11th in scrambling, 29th in strokes gained putting, 37th in total putting and 39th in three putt avoidance. He is young player with loads of talent and has shown that he can play well in the big events. He’s certainly one to keep your eye on this week.

US Open 2014 Pinehurst 2

Jimmy Walker 55/1
Walker is another player having a superb season so far with three wins already safely tucked away in the trophy cabinet. He has been playing well recently recording three top 10’s in his last five starts. Jimmy played superb on his Masters debut finishing in T8th, which could have been a lot better if it weren’t for a poor third round 76. He followed that with another great performance which came at The Players Championship finishing in T6th and nine under par for the tournament.

Most recently, Walker had a good week at The Crowne Plaza at Colonial finishing in T10th for the tournament. Statswise he ranks 23rd in GIR, fifth in strokes gained putting, fifth in total putting and 13th in driving distance. He’s great value here for a player that’s bang in form.

Webb Simpson 40/1
The North Carolina native won the US Open in 2012 at Olympic Club in California beating Michael Thompson and Graeme McDowell by one stroke to finish +1 for the tournament. He has been a little off form lately missing three cuts in his last six starts. However he had a great week last week at The FedEx St Jude Classic finishing in T3rd, two strokes behind the eventual winner Ben Crane.

Simpson ranks 23rd in scrambling, ninth in strokes gained putting and 41st in total putting. With previous experience around this course as a junior and a good performance at The St Jude, Webb could be a real contender here.

Hideki Matsuyama 40/1
Matsuyama had a super win at The Memorial last Sunday week recording his first PGA Tour win. He has been playing good golf the last couple of weeks and recorded another top 10 finish at The Crowne Plaza Invitational finishing in T10th. He also had a good week at The Players Championship finishing in a respectable T23rd. Matsuyama is no stranger to tough US Open tracks putting in a great performance last year at Merion finishing in T10th and followed that up with a T6th at The Open Championship.

Hideki ranks 46th in driving distance, fifth in birdie average and 23rd in scrambling. He has stood up to the plate in the big, tricky events last year and is showing great current form.

Final Selections
Bubba Watson 2pts EW = 4 total
Sergio Garcia 2 pts EW = 4 total
Jordan Spieth 2 pts EW = 4 total
Jimmy Walker 1.5 pts EW = 3 total
Webb Simpson 1.5 pts EW =3 total
Hideki Matsuyama 1 pt EW = 2 total
Total staked = 20 pts

Good Luck and enjoy the US Open,
DB
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