The Deutsche Bank Championship Betting Preview: FedExCup Playoffs

Deutsche Bank Fedex Cup 2013

Field: Top 100 in FedExCup Standings
TPC Boston, Norton, MA
Par 71, 7,216 yards

The Course

This week the FedExCup Playoffs travels to TPC Boston where it has hosted this event since 2003. It is a par 71 layout with three par 5’s, four par 3’s and 11 par 4’s and has a tendency to give up very low scores. Last year Henrik Stenson was the winner on 22 under par with Steve Stricker finishing in second on 20 under.

Other previous winners include Rory McIlroy (2012), Webb Simpson (2011), Charley Hoffman (2010), Steve Stricker (2009) and Vijay Singh (2008). When you see the list of previous winners, it certainly indicates that the cream certainly rises to the top. The fairways here are quite wide and forgiving so driving accuracy will not be as important as driving distance. The par 5 second and 18th will be reachable in two for most of the field so there will be a particular emphasis on ball striking and distance.

This course also has 11 par 4’s so par 4 and par 5 scoring will also be stats worth taking into consideration. The greens are wide and can offer players the opportunity to be aggressive so be on the lookout for guys with good GIR and strokes gained putting stats. There will also be a particular emphasis on birdie average as this event has been a bit of a birdie fest over the years.

Adam Scott

Adam Scott 12/1
Adam Scott comes to TPC Boston after back to back T15’s at The PGA Championship at Valhalla and last week at The Barclays. He was right in the thick of things after the second round, only to shoot a disappointing third round 75 to take himself out of contention. Since winning The Crowne Plaza Invitational back in May, Scott has recorded a further four top 10 finishes including a T4 at The Memorial and a T5 at The Open Championship at Hoylake.

His record at TPC Boston is quite impressive with a win in 2003, second in 2004, fifth in 2010, eighth in 2011 and seventh in 2012, it’s fair to say Adam is a horse for the course. Looking at his stats, he looks like he could again have a good week here ranking 17th in driving distance, 26th in GIR, fourth in SGP and third in birdie average. He also ranks third in par 4 scoring and first in par 5 birdie or better leaders.

Jason Day 1

Jason Day 16/1
I have decided to add another Aussie to the mix this week in the shape of Jason Day. He had some injury concerns recently with his thumb but it seems to be well and truly healed. He comes here after a great T2 finish at The Barclays and The PGA finishing T15th, which included a second round 65. Day has a great record here with three top 15’s in his last four starts. Last year he finished in a respectable T13th but played very well in 2011 finishing T3 and in 2010 clinching a T2.

Day also ticks a lot of the statistical boxes ranking 24th in driving distance, 13th in scoring average, 15th in par 3 performance, 38th in par 4 performance and ninth in scrambling. After a solid week at the Barclays, I expect Jason Day to have a good week here at TPC Boston.

Jordan Spieth 33/1
While Jordan Spieth has come off the boil in terms of form lately, I think this sort of course should suit the youngster. He has had a great season with great performances at The Masters (T2), The Players Championship (T4) The US Open (T17) and most recently, The John Deere Classic finishing T7th, which included a second round 64. Spieth’s form has dipped in the last month but he played well at The Barclays shooting a final round 67 to finish in a respectable T22.

Jordan had a good week here last year finishing T4th and shot a superb final round 62 to finish 17 under par for the tournament. Statswise he ranks 31st in SGP, seventh in birdie average, 14th in scoring average, 27th in par 4 performance and 13th in par 5 performance.

Patrick Reed 40/1
After a great closing round 65 last week at The Barclays to finish T9, this course looks like it could suit Patrick Reed with the huge amount of birdies on offer. Reed also had a good performance at The Bridgestone Invitational and closed with a 65 to finish T4 on nine under in total.

He won The Humana Challenge back in January at La Quinta CC, which is another golf course that offers lots of birdies with Reed shooting three 63’s in the first three rounds and closed with a 71 to win by two strokes over Ryan Palmer. He had a disappointing T70 finish here last year but comes into this week in much better form. Considering it will take in the region of 20-22 under to win, he is the type of player that’s capable of shooting low numbers on a generous golf course.

Bo Van Pelt pic 1

Bo Van Pelt 80/1
Bo Van Pelt could be a bit of a dark horse here this week with three top 15’s in his last four starts. He played well at The John Deere Classic recently finishing T7th on 16 under par. He then went on to have a good week at The Wyndham settling for a T14, which included four steady rounds in the 60’s, and followed that with another solid week at The Barclays finishing T13.

BVP has two top 10’s at TPC Boston finishing T7 in 2011 and T10 in 2005. He has also recorded a further three top 20’s which came in 2012 (T26), 2010 (T25) and 2007 (T29). He ranks 15th in GIR, 45th in par 3 performance, first in GIR from 150-175 yards and sixth in proximity to the hole. Bo is another horse for the course and looks to be a great each way shout at 80/1.

Final selections:
Adam Scott 2pts EW
Jason Day 2pts EW
Jordan Spieth 1.5 pts EW
Patrick Reed 1.5 pts EW
Bo Van Pelt 1 pt EW
Total staked = 16 pts

Good luck and enjoy the golf,

DB

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The Barclays Betting Preview: FedEx Cup Playoffs

The Barclays

Ridgewood Country Club. Paramus, New Jersey
Par 71, 7,319 yards

The Course
The Barclays returns to Ridgewood CC this week where it hosted this event back in 2008 and 2010. Matt Kuchar defeated Martin Laird in a playoff to win in 2010 and Vijay Singh defeated Sergio Garcia and Kevin Sutherland in a playoff in 2008.

Ridgewood is a tree lined par 71 that measures 7,319 yards with three par 5’s, four par 3’s and 11 par 4’s. The course was designed by A.W Tillinghast in 1929 and is one of the oldest country clubs in the United States. Tillinghast has also designed courses that hosted major championship’s over the years such as Bethpage Black, which hosted the US Open in 2002 and 2009, Baltusrol which hosted the 2005 PGA and the west course at Winged Foot which played host to the 1997 PGA and 2006 US Open.

There will be an emphasis on driving accuracy on this course with its narrow tree lined fairways and penal rough. Par 4 scoring will be important along with good ball striking and putting. The greens here are undulating and will be tricky and fast depending on the weather.

Sergio Garcia pic 1

Sergio Garcia 20/1
With four top fives in his last six starts, Sergio comes to Ridgewood in superb form with his game in great shape. At The Players back in May, he finished solo third on 11 under par for the tournament and followed that with a T2 at The Travelers and another T2 at The Open Championship at Hoylake. Garcia then had yet another great week at Firestone at The WGC Bridgestone, which included a third round 61, to finish on 13 under par and solo second.

Sergio has course form here and came close to winning in 2008, but was defeated by Vijay Singh in a playoff to settle for second with Kevin Sutherland and came close again in Bethpage in 2012 finishing T3. Statswise he ranks 49th in driving accuracy, fourth in GIR, 35th in SGP and third in par 4 scoring. He ticks all the boxes here and looks like he could have a great week.

Phil Mickelson pic 1

Phil Mickelson 22/1
After a great performance last week at The PGA, Phil will be coming to The Barclays this week feeling confident. His season hasn’t been anything to shout about, however he has shown signs of good form over the last few weeks with good performances at The FedEx St Jude Classic (T11), The Bridgestone Invitational (T15) and a solo second last week at Valhalla.

Phil’s previous performances on Tillighast designs have been decent with a two second place finishes at The US Open in 2002 and 2009 in Bethpage Black and a win at the PGA Championsip back in 2005 at Baltusrol. Statswise he ranks 47th in SGP, 17th in par 4 performance and 31st in total putting.

Jimmy Walker 40/1
Jimmy Walker started the season off in style with wins at The Frys.com Open, The Sony Open and the AT&T at Pebble Beach. With solid performances at the majors so far this year, Jimmy Walker could be a man to keep your eye on here at The Barclays this week.

He has proven he can contend in the big events with great performances at The Masters (T8), The US Open (T9) and a respectable T26 at The Open. Walker also played great golf at Sawgrass closing with a 65 to finish T6th. Last week in Valhalla Walker shot an impressive final round 65 to finish T7th.

He ranks 30th in GIR, seventh in SGP, second in birdie average and 10th in scoring average. He also ranks third in total putting, 10th in par 4 performance and 11th in par 3 performance.

Hunter Mahan 45/1
Mahan has been showing some good form lately with good performances in his last two events. He had a good week at Firestone shooting 71,65,71,68 on his way to a T15 and played well last week at The PGA shooting a final round 67 to finish T7th. Mahan has played here before finishing in a respectable T31 in both 2008 and 2010. However in 2008, he shot a 62 to lead after round one and has proven he can go low around this course.

Mahan ranks 40th in driving accuracy, 42nd in GIR, 41st in strokes gained putting and 45th in par 4 performance. With decent performances here in the past, Hunter comes here in good form and could have a good week at a generous price.

Brandt Snedeker pic 1

Brandt Snedeker 33/1
Snedeker has been keeping a low profile lately with seven top 25’s in his last eight starts on the PGA Tour. He played well at The US Open (T9), The Travellers (T11) which included a final round 64, The Quicken Loans National (T21) and The Bridgestone Invitational (T12). In his last two events he finished T5 at The Wyndham and T13 at The PGA in Valhalla.

He comes here with his game in good shape and ranks 15th in SGP and is hitting 63% of fairways off the tee. He also ranks 29t in total putting and 23rd in par 5 performance. He played well at this event in 2012 at Bethpage finishing solo second and again at Plainfield in 2011 finishing T3 with Vijay Singh.

Final Selections:

Sergio Garcia 2 pts EW
Phil Mickelson 1.5pts EW
Jimmy Walker 1.5 pts EW
Hunter Mahan 1 pt EW
Brandt Snedeker 1 pt EW

Total Staked = 14 pts

Good luck and enjoy the golf,

DB

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Wyndham Championship Betting Preview 2014

Wyndham Championship.jpg pic 2014

Sedgefield Country Club, Greenboro, North Carolina
Par 70, 7127 yards

The Course
After all the excitement of The PGA Championship in Valhalla last week, the PGA Tour now travels to North Carolina for the Wyndham Championship, which is the last event before the FedEx Cup playoffs.

Sedgefield Country Club has been the host of this event for the last six years following a spell in Forest Oaks Country Club that ended in 2007. Sedgefield has small undulating greens, forgiving tree lined fairways and is quite short by PGA Tour standards. There wouldn’t be a huge emphasis on driving distance, but driving accuracy will be a big plus here. Par 3 and par 4 scoring will be important as there are 12 par 4’s, two par 5’s and four par 3’s.

The greens are tricky and undulating with some having big slopes so finding the right part of the green with your approach shots will be key this week. Good putters with good GIR, par 3 and par 4 scoring stats should be worth looking at here.

Bill Haas pic 1

Bill Haas 28/1
After a respectable six under par total finishing T27 in Valhalla last week, local boy Bill Haas comes here showing some steady form. With the exception of a W/D at The RBC Heritage, Bill hasn’t missed a cut once so far this season. He hasn’t exactly been in brilliant form, but he has played well the last few weeks with a top 10 at The Memorial back in June finishing in T8 and followed that with two top 20’s at The Greenbrier and The PGA in Valhalla last week.

He is very much a horse for the course here with two top 10’s and two top 20’s in his last six appearances. His best finishes came back in 2012 where he clinched a T7 and again in 2009 finishing T10. With a mediocre field this week, I think Bill has a big chance here.

Tim Clark 28/1
When it comes to short par 70’s, Tim Clark is the man to keep an eye on. He had a great week at The RBC Canadian Open shooting two opening 67’s and finishing 64, 65 to be crowned the winner on 17 under over Jim Furyk. Clark also played well the week before at TPC Deere Run settling for a T5, which included a second round 63 and third round 64.

Tim is another player with a good history at this event finishing a respectable T26 last year, second in 2012 and sixth in 2008. Statswise, he ranks third in driving accuracy, ninth in par 3 performance, first in proximity to the hole, first in GIR from 75-100 yards and 15th in GIR from 125+, which will be a big help with approaches into the 12 par 4’s.

Brian Harman pic 1

Brian Harman 33/1
After a brilliant performance at The John Deere Classic shooting rounds of 63,68,65,66 on his way to victory and 22 under par in total, Brian Harman is another man to keep your eye on here at Sedgefield this week. Since winning a few weeks ago, Harman hasn’t missed a cut in his last three events. He finished in a respectable T26th at The Open, 65th in Firestone and T41 last week in Valhalla, bearing in mind that two of these were majors and the other was a WGC.

However, Brian finished well here last year with a T3 and could be more comfortable with the field this week being similar to when he won the John Deere a couple of weeks ago. Harman ranks 11th in par 3 performance, 22nd in approaches from 100-125 yards and 13th in approaches from 150-175 yards, which will be a big plus hitting approaches into the par 4’s.

Nick Watney 40/1
Nick Watney has had come into some form late in the season and has posted three top 12 finishes including a top 10 in his last seven starts. His form took a turn for the better at The Travellers where he posted a ten under par total to finish T11. He then had another good week at The Canadian Open shooting four steady rounds to settle for a T12 and then followed that with a T8 at The Barracuda Championship.

Last week at Valhalla, Watney opened with two 69’s and finished 70,72 to post a respectable T33 and four under for the tournament. He ranks 10th in total driving, fourth in proximity to the hole and 48th in GIR. His best finish here is T31 back in 2012 but he comes into this week in much better form.

Carl Pettersson pic 1

Carl Pettersson 40/1
With two top 10’s in his last five starts, Pettersson comes here in reasonable form and should be well rested after taking last week off. He played well at The FedEx St Jude and finished T3 after shooting four very consistent rounds in the 60’s. Carl then did the same the following week at The Travellers Championship finishing T7 and 11 under for the tournament. It’s worth noting that both TPC Southwind and TPC River Highlands are both par 70’s, which seems to suit Pettersson’s game.

He has a superb record at this event with a win in 2008 and back to back T4’s in 2011 and 2012. He has proven he is a real horse for the course and shouldn’t be underestimated here at Sedgefield this week.

Final Selections
Bill Haas 1.5 pts EW
Tim Clark 1.5 pts EW
Brian Harman 1 pt EW
Carl Pettersson 1 pt EW
Nick Watney 1 pt EW
Total staked = 12 pts

Good luck and enjoy the golf,

DB

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The PGA Championship 2014 Betting Preview

PGA Championship Betting Preview 2014

Valhalla Golf Club, Louisville, Kentucky
Par 71, 7,458 yards

The Course

The PGA Championship returns to Valhalla Golf Club for the third time. It was first played here in 1996 where Mark Brooks was the winner over Kenny Perry. Valhalla then played host again in 2000 where Tiger Woods went on to beat Bob May in a playoff. The Ryder Cup was also played here in 2008, which as the last time the US Team won the Ryder Cup.

This course is a lengthy 7,458 yards and features three par 5’s, four par 3’s and 11 par 4’s. Length will be a big advantage here this week with three of the par 4’s measuring 495 yards or longer. Birdies will be found on the par 5’s with them measuring between 540 yards and 597 yards so quite a few players will be hitting these greens in two.

The fairways are quite generous with some doglegs, but accuracy will be a huge factor here so be on the lookout for guys that are good ball strikers and have good driving distance and accuracy stats. These large, undulating bentgrass greens are protected by large bunkers so GIR and scrambling will also be important.
The WGC Bridgestone has been played the week before The PGA since 2007 and has always been a good indicator of who could potentially go well. Players that have finished in the top 20 in firestone and have good current form are ones to keep an eye on.

Justin Rose pic 1

Justin Rose 22/1
Justin Rose had yet another top 10 last week in Firestone shooting 65,67,70,69 on his way to a T4. He is playing very steady golf at the moment and has two wins in his previous five starts. He played well at The Open Championship and finished in respectable T23rd.

He had another good week at The Scottish Open shooting a final round 65 to finish on 16 under par for the tournament. Rose also won the week before at The Quicken Loans at Congressional beating Shawn Stefani in a playoff. At The Players Championship he finished T4th and followed that with a respectable T12 at The US Open.
Statswise, he ranks 40th in GIR, 10th in scoring average, 21st in par breakers and 25th in par 4 performance. He also ranks 11th in GIR from 175-200 yards which will be a big help on these long par 4’s.

Rickie Fowler 25/1
Rickie Fowler has been a big performer this year, especially at the majors. He had a super week at The Masters in Augusta back in April finishing T5th for the week. Rickie also played very well at both the US Open at Pinehurst clinching a T2nd and at The Open Championship at Hoylake also finishing in T2nd. Last week at Firestone, he had another good performance shooting three 67’s and 72 to close with a T8th.

He ranks 35th in driving distance, 19th in par 5 birdie or better leaders and 43rd in par 5 performance. He also ranks ninth in approaches from 125-150 yards and 16th in approaches from 225-250 yards which will help on these long par 5’s. Rickie has proven he loves the big occasions and could be a big danger man here at Valhalla this week.

Keegan Bradley 1

Keegan Bradley 33/1
After another steady performance last week finishing T4th at Firestone, Keegan Bradley looks like a player that would suit a course like Valhalla. He has put together good performances at Hoylake finishing T19th, and also played well the week before at The Greenbrier Classic shooting four rounds in the 60’s on nine under par to close with a T4th for the tournament.

At The US Open in Pinehurst, Bradley recorded yet another T4th to finish +1 for the tournament. Statswise he ranks 14th in driving distance, 24th in strokes gained putting, 14th in birdie average, 13th in par breakers and 15th in scrambling. He also ranks third in approaches from 200+ and sixth in GIR from 175-200, two stats that should help on some of the long par 4’s. Keegan is playing good golf at the moment and has the ball striking and distance to have yet another good week here.

Charl Schwartzel 40/1
After a final round 64 last week in Firestone, adding a third top 10 finish in his last five starts, Charl Schwartzel looks to be bang in form at the moment. After a great performance at the HP Byron Nelson back in May finishing just outside the top 10 in T11th, he then followed that with another solid week at The Memorial closing with a T8th. Charl had another good performance at The Open at Hoylake shooting a final round 67 to clinch T7th. At Firestone last week he played great golf all week shooting a superb final round 64 to finish T4th.

Schwartzel ranks 31st in driving distance, ninth in birdie average, ninth in par breakers and second in birdie or better conversion percentage. He also ranks third in par 5 birdie or better leaders, 25th in scrambling and 11th in approaches from 200-225. He ticks a lot of statistical boxes and comes here in great form.

Marc Leishman pic 1

Marc Leishman 50/1
Leishman has had a great season so far, especially in the last few weeks recording four top 11’s in his last five starts. His good run began back at the Byron Nelson back in May shooting four rounds in the 60’s finishing T3rd. He then had a good week at The Travellers closing with a 67 to clinch a T11 and followed that with a T8th at The Quicken Loans at Congressional.

Leishman has had two very good weeks which began in Hoylake at The Open Championship finishing in T5th for the tournament on 12 under par for the week. At Firestone last week, he began his tournament with an impressive opening round 64 and ended up closing with a 67 and finshing solo third.

He also measures up here statswise ranking 30th in driving distance, 14th in scoring average, 39th in par breakers a 21st in par 3 performance. He also ranks 24th in approaches from 150-175 and third in approaches from 250-275, two good stats for these long par 4’ and par 5’s.

Jimmy Walker 50/1
With solid performances at the majors so far this year, Jimmy Walker could be a man to keep your eye on here at Valhalla this week. He has proven he can contend in majors with great performances at The Masters (T8), The US Open (T9) and a respectable T26 at The Open. Walker also played great golf at Sawgrass closing with a 65 to finish T6th.

In the last few weeks, he has continued to play well finishing T10th at The Crowne Plaza at Colonial and followed that with a good finish at The US Open. Walker had a decent performance last week at Firestone finishing in a respectable T26. He ranks 19th in driving distance, 29th in GIR, seventh in strokes gained putting and second in birdie average. He also ranks 15 in par 4 performance, eighth in par 5 performance and seventh in total putting. One to watch here at a good price.

Final Selections:
Justin Rose 2 pts EW
Rickie Fowler 2 pts EW
Keegan Bradley 2 pts EW
Charl Schwartzel 2 pts EW
Marc Leishman 1 pt EW
Jimmy Walker 1 pt EW
Places 1-6 (PaddyPower)

To Make/Miss the cut:
McDowell/Casey/Leishman to make the cut @ 2.1 – 2 pts treble (PaddyPower)
Total staked = 22 pts

Good luck and enjoy the golf,
DB