Field: Top 100 in FedExCup Standings
TPC Boston, Norton, MA
Par 71, 7,216 yards
This week the FedExCup Playoffs travels to TPC Boston where it has hosted this event since 2003. It is a par 71 layout with three par 5’s, four par 3’s and 11 par 4’s and has a tendency to give up very low scores. Last year Henrik Stenson was the winner on 22 under par with Steve Stricker finishing in second on 20 under.
Other previous winners include Rory McIlroy (2012), Webb Simpson (2011), Charley Hoffman (2010), Steve Stricker (2009) and Vijay Singh (2008). When you see the list of previous winners, it certainly indicates that the cream certainly rises to the top. The fairways here are quite wide and forgiving so driving accuracy will not be as important as driving distance. The par 5 second and 18th will be reachable in two for most of the field so there will be a particular emphasis on ball striking and distance.
This course also has 11 par 4’s so par 4 and par 5 scoring will also be stats worth taking into consideration. The greens are wide and can offer players the opportunity to be aggressive so be on the lookout for guys with good GIR and strokes gained putting stats. There will also be a particular emphasis on birdie average as this event has been a bit of a birdie fest over the years.
Adam Scott 12/1
Adam Scott comes to TPC Boston after back to back T15’s at The PGA Championship at Valhalla and last week at The Barclays. He was right in the thick of things after the second round, only to shoot a disappointing third round 75 to take himself out of contention. Since winning The Crowne Plaza Invitational back in May, Scott has recorded a further four top 10 finishes including a T4 at The Memorial and a T5 at The Open Championship at Hoylake.
His record at TPC Boston is quite impressive with a win in 2003, second in 2004, fifth in 2010, eighth in 2011 and seventh in 2012, it’s fair to say Adam is a horse for the course. Looking at his stats, he looks like he could again have a good week here ranking 17th in driving distance, 26th in GIR, fourth in SGP and third in birdie average. He also ranks third in par 4 scoring and first in par 5 birdie or better leaders.
Jason Day 16/1
I have decided to add another Aussie to the mix this week in the shape of Jason Day. He had some injury concerns recently with his thumb but it seems to be well and truly healed. He comes here after a great T2 finish at The Barclays and The PGA finishing T15th, which included a second round 65. Day has a great record here with three top 15’s in his last four starts. Last year he finished in a respectable T13th but played very well in 2011 finishing T3 and in 2010 clinching a T2.
Day also ticks a lot of the statistical boxes ranking 24th in driving distance, 13th in scoring average, 15th in par 3 performance, 38th in par 4 performance and ninth in scrambling. After a solid week at the Barclays, I expect Jason Day to have a good week here at TPC Boston.
Jordan Spieth 33/1
While Jordan Spieth has come off the boil in terms of form lately, I think this sort of course should suit the youngster. He has had a great season with great performances at The Masters (T2), The Players Championship (T4) The US Open (T17) and most recently, The John Deere Classic finishing T7th, which included a second round 64. Spieth’s form has dipped in the last month but he played well at The Barclays shooting a final round 67 to finish in a respectable T22.
Jordan had a good week here last year finishing T4th and shot a superb final round 62 to finish 17 under par for the tournament. Statswise he ranks 31st in SGP, seventh in birdie average, 14th in scoring average, 27th in par 4 performance and 13th in par 5 performance.
Patrick Reed 40/1
After a great closing round 65 last week at The Barclays to finish T9, this course looks like it could suit Patrick Reed with the huge amount of birdies on offer. Reed also had a good performance at The Bridgestone Invitational and closed with a 65 to finish T4 on nine under in total.
He won The Humana Challenge back in January at La Quinta CC, which is another golf course that offers lots of birdies with Reed shooting three 63’s in the first three rounds and closed with a 71 to win by two strokes over Ryan Palmer. He had a disappointing T70 finish here last year but comes into this week in much better form. Considering it will take in the region of 20-22 under to win, he is the type of player that’s capable of shooting low numbers on a generous golf course.
Bo Van Pelt 80/1
Bo Van Pelt could be a bit of a dark horse here this week with three top 15’s in his last four starts. He played well at The John Deere Classic recently finishing T7th on 16 under par. He then went on to have a good week at The Wyndham settling for a T14, which included four steady rounds in the 60’s, and followed that with another solid week at The Barclays finishing T13.
BVP has two top 10’s at TPC Boston finishing T7 in 2011 and T10 in 2005. He has also recorded a further three top 20’s which came in 2012 (T26), 2010 (T25) and 2007 (T29). He ranks 15th in GIR, 45th in par 3 performance, first in GIR from 150-175 yards and sixth in proximity to the hole. Bo is another horse for the course and looks to be a great each way shout at 80/1.
Adam Scott 2pts EW
Jason Day 2pts EW
Jordan Spieth 1.5 pts EW
Patrick Reed 1.5 pts EW
Bo Van Pelt 1 pt EW
Total staked = 16 pts
Good luck and enjoy the golf,
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