The BMW Championship: Fedex Cup Playoffs

BMW Championship_Roundel Stacked

Cherry Hills Country Club, Colorado
Par 71, 7,466 yards

The Course
The third leg of the FedEx Cup Playoffs travels to Cherry Hills in Colorado this week for the BMW Championship. Cherry Hills is a 7,466 yard par 71 located just south of Denver. Previous winners of this event include Zach Johnson (2013), Rory McIlroy (2012), Justin Rose (2011), Dustin Johnson (2010), Tiger Woods (2009 and 2007) and Camilo Villegas (2008).

This course has some history attached to it with Arnold Palmer winning his one and only US Open title here back in 1960. It also played host to the 1990 US Amateur when Phil Mickelson was crowned the winner. Looking through the list of previous winners, it seems that this event proves that only the best players really contend here.

Cherry Hills has three par 5’s and four par 3’s with some of the par 4’s reachable in one. Accuracy will be important here as a lot of the fairways are tree lined, so keeping it straight off the tee will be a key. The rough around the greens is deep and tricky to manage so GIR will be another key factor here as these greens are a bit smaller than the average. This course is at high altitude so it may not play as long as the yardage suggests.

Bill Haas pic 1

Bill Haas 33/1
After a solid final round 69 last week at TPC Boston, Bill Haas recorded his third top 15 finish in his last three starts. Haas was very steady all week at The Barclays shooting three 70’s and a final round 67 to finish T15 and seven under for the tournament. He also played well the week before at The Wyndham carding a final round 64 to finish T2 on 17 under. He also had top 10’s at The WGC Cadillac finishing T6th and more recently, The Memorial finishing T8.

Haas ranks 11th in GIR, 18th in strokes gained tee to green and 12th in GIR from 150-175 yards. He was T1st last week in GIR along with Scott and Streelman hitting 55 greens from 72 and hasn’t missed a cut this season.

Jimmy Walker pic 1

Jimmy Walker 33/1
Walker seems to be a bit of a snake in the grass here this week and comes here after shooting a final round 67 finishing T9th. He started the season off in style with wins at The Frys.com Open, The Sony Open and the AT&T at Pebble Beach. He has performed well on the big stage this year and I don’t see this week being any different.

He had great performances at The Masters (T8), The US Open (T9), The PGA Championship (T7) and a respectable T26 at The Open. Walker also played great golf at Sawgrass closing with a 65 to finish T6th. Statswise, he ranks 18th in driving distance, seventh in SGP, second in birdie average, 30th in GIR and 33rd in rough proximity. He comes to Cherry Hills showing good form and cold be one to watch here this week.

Hunter Mahan 33/1
Mahan played great golf in the final round of The Barclays shooting a 65 to clinch victory. Before that, he had two top 15 finishes under his belt which came at The WGC Bridgestone Invitational (T15) and The PGA Championship at Valhalla finishing T7. Mahan had a less than impressive performance at The Deutsche Bank shooting 73,71,73 in the first three rounds but came back on Sunday and shot an impressive final round 68.

Mahan ranks third in total driving, 32nd in GIR, 39th in SGP and sixth in GIR from 150-175 yards. His stats seem to suit this course and if he keeps the ball straight off the tee, he could be a big danger man here.

Webb Simpson 2

Webb Simpson 40/1
Webb’s form has been a little bit up and down this season but he has put in some super performances recently. He recorded his ninth top 10 of the season last week at TPC Boston finishing T9th, bouncing back well after missing the cut at The Barclays. He also put in a great performance at The Wyndham finishing T5, which included an opening round 64. Simpson has a further two third place finishes recently coming at The FedEx St Jude and The Greenbrier.

His stats also look to suit this course ranking 20th in SGP, 15th in birdie average and 21st in par 4 performance. He also ranks 15th in GIR from 175-200 yards and third in both approaches from 100-125 and 75-100 yards. He is showing some good form and looks to be a good shout here at Cherry Hills this week.

Geoff Ogilvy 50/1
Ogilvy had a great performance last week at The Deutsche Bank and looked to be in contention right up to the end. He shot two 65’s in round three and four to finish 13 under and T2 for the tournament. He put in another superb performance a couple of weeks ago in Reno when he won The Barracuda Championship beating Justin Hicks and John Huh.

He ranks seventh in GIR percentage from other than fairway and eighth in rough proximity so if he misses the fairway this week, he should be ok. Last week at TPC Boston, he ranked 14th in GIR and sixth in scrambling. Ogilvy seems to be on form lately and looks to be good value at 50/1.

Final selections:
Bill Haas 1.5 pts EW
Jimmy Walker 1.5 pts EW
Hunter Mahan 1.5 pts EW
Webb Simpson 1.5 pts EW
Geoff Ogilvy 1 pt EW
Total staked = 14 pts

Good luck and enjoy the golf,

DB

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