Shell Houston Open Betting Preview 2015

Shell Houston Open 2015 betting preview 2015

Golf Club of Houston, Humble, Texas

7,441 yards, par 72

Last week at The Valero Texas Open –

How tricky did TPC San Antonio look last week? The players struggled around for the four days in very windy conditions. Jimmy Walker was a class act from start to finish shooting 71,67,69,70 on his way to an 11 under par victory, four clear of his nearest challenger Jordan Spieth.

As for last week’s selections, we ended up with a nice each way return on Daniel Summerhays at 66/1, who finished T4th along with Chesson Hadley. That gave us a little bit of profit and a total profit of +191.93 for the season so far. Let’s keep it going this week in Houston and tee us up nicely for The Masters next week!

 

The Course

The Golf Club of Houston was designed by Reese Jones and was established in 2003. Since 2007, the tournament has been held the week before the Masters, giving the players one last chance to get into the field through a win. This course is a decent test measuring just short of 7,500 yards.

It is set up to replicate Augusta for next week and has a particular emphasis on length. For example, the four par 5’s on this course all measure over 550 yards and will require a decent drive if players are going for the green in two. The par 4’s will also require length with the 5th, 6th, 17th and 18th all measuring over 460 yards. Players that average between 295 and 300+ yards off the tee will be leaving themselves between an eight iron and a wedge into some of the longer par 4’s.

The main stats to consider here is obviously length, along with good par 3, par 4, par 5 scoring stats. The greens here are also quite tricky (like Augusta) with tight banks and plenty of run off areas so be on the lookout for guys with good greens in regulation stats.  The greens here will be pretty quick measuring roughly 13 on the stimp so strokes gained putting will be another stat to consider on this course.

 

Patrick Reed 16/1 Shell Houston Open

Patrick Reed 16/1

After taking a week off last week, Reed will come to Houston feeling rested and confident after coming close to winning the Valspar a couple of weeks ago. He got into a playoff with Jordan Spieth and Sean O Hair and put on a masterclass with his shortgame. He got up and down out from everywhere and putted superbly, but was beaten by Ryder Cup team mate Spieth after he holed a superb 30 footer on the third playoff hole for a birdie and the win. I believe the confident Texan will take that good form into this week in Houston.

His current form is good with a win, two top 10’s and two top 25’s in his last seven events. He won the Hyundai Tournament of Champions in Kapalua in early January and continued that good run of form with a T24 at The Humana, T29 at Pebble Beach, T7 at The Honda and a T23 at Doral.

Reed is averaging 290 off the tee and ranks 13th in strokes gained tee to green, 11th in strokes gained putting, fourth in approaches from 250-275 and 27th in approaches from 150-175, which Is a good stat for approaches into the long par 4’s. He also ranks 23rd in par 3 scoring, fifth in par 4 scoring and 19th in par 5 scoring. After coming close a couple of weeks ago, Reed could go one better this week and be right in the mix come Sunday.

 

JB Holmes 25/1 Shell Houston Open

J.B. Holmes 25/1

With three top 10’s and a top 25 in his last five events, J.B. Holmes is another player that took last week off and should be well rested and ready to contend in Houston. Despite a missed cut at Bay Hill, Holmes has been playing very well over the last few weeks and came close to winning at Torrey Pines, but was beaten in a playoff by Jason Day at The Farmers Insurance Open at the beginning of February.

He continued that good run of form and finished T10 at Pebble Beach, which included a superb first round 64. He then had another good week at The Northern Trust Open finishing T22, which could have been a lot better if it weren’t for a disappointing final round 76. He led after round one in Doral after opening with an impressive 62 and went on to finish solo 2nd.

Holmes has played well here in the past finishing T12 last year, T8 in 2012, T4 in 2011 and P2 in 2009 when he lost in a playoff to Paul Casey. Statswise he ranks 11th in driving distance averaging 303 off the tee, ninth in strokes gained tee to green and 30th in approaches from 150-175,which is a good stat for approaches into the long par 4’s. He also ranks 35th in par 3 scoring, 30th in par 5 scoring and seventh in par 4 birdie or better leaders. With great current form and a good history here, Holmes will be one to watch.

 

Louis Oosthuizen 28/1 Shell Houston Open

Louis Oosthuizen 28/1

The South African has only played in a handful of events this year on The PGA Tour and has been showing glimpses of good form. He had a good week at Doral shooting 71,74,67,73 on his way to a solo 6th. He then missed the cut at The Valspar, but bounced back very well at The Arnold Palmer in Bay Hill finishing T9th. Louis is a horse for the course here and has played well in the past finishing T10 in 2013, solo 3rd in 2012 and T16 in 2011.

He is a decent driver of the ball averaging 294 off the tee and hitting just short of 70% greens in regulation in his last four events on the PGA Tour. After finishing solo 3rd in 2012, he went on to get into a playoff with Bubba Watson in The Masters the following week so keep an eye on Louis here this week.

 

Jason Kokrak 40/1 Shell Houston Open 2015

Jason Kokrak 40/1

Jason Kokrak is a player that could really suit this track with his length. He was unlucky not to finish with another top 10 last week in Texas where he carded five bogeys in his final round to finish with a two over 74. Despite that, he still finished in a respectable T11 for the tournament. He has been playing well over the last couple of weeks finishing with a T7 at The Valspar and a T6 at The Arnold Palmer. Kokrak has played well here in the past finishing solo 9th in 2013 and comes to The Golf Club of Houston in much better form this time around.

Statswise he ranks 12th in driving distance averaging 304 yards off the tee and 49th in both strokes gained tee to green and strokes gained putting. His approach stats are also good ranking 16th in approaches from 175-200 and 25th in approaches from 150-175. He also ranks seventh in par 5 scoring and 32nd in par 4 scoring. With Kokrak’s current form and length, he could be a serious danger here at an attractive price.

 

Sean Stefani top 10 finis Shell Houston Open 4/1

Top 10 Finish –

Shawn Stefani 4/1

Shawn Stefani has been playing well this season with three top 15 finishes earlier this year. He played well at The OHL Classic finishing solo 2nd, T6 at The Sony Open in Hawaii and a T15 at The Humana Challenge at the end of January. Most recently, he had a good week at The Valspar finishing T17 and followed that with a T21 at Bay Hill. Last week, he finished in a respectable T26 at The Texas Open, which could have been a lot better if it weren’t for a disappointing first round 79.

Stefani played very well here last year finishing solo 5th on 10 under par for the tournament. He ranks 45th in driving distance, 27th in GIR and sixth in approaches from 200-225, which is a good stat for approaches into the par 5’s. He also ranks 13th in par 5 scoring and 38th in par 4 scoring. With a good finish here last year and good current form, Stefani is more than capable of finishing in the top 10 this week.

 

Final selections –

Patrick Reed 1.5pts EW 16/1

J.B. Holmes 1.5pts EW 25/1

Louis Oosthuizen 1 pt EW 28/1

Jason Kokrak 1 pt EW 40/1

Shawn Stefani 2 pts Top 10 finish 4/1

Total staked = 12 pts

 

Good luck and enjoy the golf,

Doublebogey6

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Valero Texas Open 2015 Betting Preview

Valero Texas Open 2015 betting tips

TPC San Antonio, AT&T Oaks Course, Texas

7,435 yards, par 72

The Course

TPC San Antonio is located in the Cibolo Canyons area north of San Antonio, Texas, and opened in February 2010.

The resort features two 18-hole golf courses, the AT&T Canyons Course designed by Pete Dye in and Bruce Lietzke, and the AT&T Oaks Course designed by Greg Norman and Sergio Garcia. Both courses are members of the Tournament Players Club network operated by the PGA Tour, with the Oaks Course hosting the Valero Texas Open since 2010. The Canyons course took over as the venue for the AT&T Championship on the Champions Tour in 2011.

The Oaks Course is a tricky par 72 with four par 5’s, four par 3’s and 10 par 4’s. This course is a tough challenge with narrow fairways and deep bunkers. There is also a lot of vegetation where there can be some unplayable lies so hitting the fairways will be very important this week. This course can sometimes get windy and ranks in the top 10 of the most difficult courses to play on the PGA Tour. The average winning score has been between 8 and 14 under for the last five years.

Driving accuracy is one important stat to consider on this course as there are many narrow fairways and deep penal rough to contend with. Also hitting accurate iron shots into the right areas of these tricky undulating greens will be important along with good GIR stats.  Par 5, par 4, par 3 scoring, proximity to the hole and strokes gained putting are also worth looking at. These greens are tricky Bermuda greens and will require a decent putter.

 

Zach Johnson Valero Texas Open 28/1

Zach Johnson 28/1

Johnson comes to Texas after a great performance at Bay Hill last week, in particular his superb Albatross on the par 5 16th, where he knocked his second shot straight in the hole shooting an impressive final round 66 finishing T9 on 12 under. He has had a further three top 10’s this season finishing T8 at The Hero World Challenge before Christmas and solo 7th at The Hyundai Tournament of Champions in January. He also had a good week at The Phoenix Open a few weeks ago finishing T10 on 10 under for the tournament.

Johnson has played well here before finishing T6 last year. Statswise he seems to fit the bill ranking 18th in driving accuracy, 32nd in strokes gained tee to green and 13th in birdie average. He also ranks 13th in par 4 scoring, 19th in par 5 scoring and 15th par 5 birdie or better leaders. After playing well last week at Bay Hill and a good performance here last year, Zach Johnson could be one to watch this week at a good price.

 

Kevin Na 40/1 Valero Texas Open

Kevin Na 33/1

Kevin Na has been playing well over the last few weeks and has three top 10’s in his last three starts on the PGA Tour. He had a good week in Doral finishing T9 at The WGC Cadillac and followed that with a T10 at The Valspar, which included a final round 66. Last week at Bay Hill, Na put together four solid rounds to finish T6 on 13 under for the tournament.

He played well here last year and finished T11 on three under for the week and could have finished a lot better if it weren’t for a disappointing 76 in the final round. Na is hitting 60% of fairways and ranks 45th in strokes gained tee to green. He also ranks 28th in par 3 scoring, 22nd in par 4 scoring and 14th in par 3 birdie or better leaders. With three top 10’s in his last three starts, Na is in good form and could go well on a course he has played well on in the past.

 

Brendan Steele 40/1 Valero Texas Open

Brendan Steele 40/1

Steele was going nicely last week in Bay Hill only to falter in round 4 shooting a disappointing 76 to finish T35 on six under. Despite his poor finish last week, he had three top 15’s in his last five starts and looks to be in good form. He played very well at The Humana at the end of January finishing T2, which included an impressive final round 64. More recently, he had a good week at The Northern Trust Open finishing T14 and followed that with a T11 at The Honda Classic.

Steele has played well here  in the past with a win in 2011 and a T4 in 2012. He ranks 15th in strokes gained tee to green, 24th in scoring average and 12th in driving distance. He also ranks eighth in par 4 scoring, 23rd in par 4 birdie or better leaders and 19th in birdie or better conversion percentage. With good current form and a former winner on this course, Steele could be another danger man here.

 

Charley Hoffman 50/1 Valero Texas Open

Charley Hoffman 50/1

Charley Hoffman is your typical horse for the course and hasn’t finished outside the top 15 in his last five appearances at TPC San Antonio. He finished T11 last year, T3 in 2013, T13 in 2012, T2 in 2011 and T13 in 2010. He showed some good form in the early stages of the season with a win at The OHL Classic back in November, T14 at the Hyundai Tournament of Champions in January and a T2 at The Humana Challenge. Most recently his form has been a bit mixed with a T30 at The Northern Trust Open, T38 at The WGC Cadillac and an MC at The Valspar.

Statswise he ranks 45th in GIR, 40th in birdie average and 22nd in par 4 scoring. He also ranks 33rd in par 4 birdie or better leaders and first in approaches from 100 yards, which is a good stat for approaches into some of the shorter par 4’s. With a great previous record on this course, I expect Hoffman to bounce back and have a good week here.

 

Daniel Summerhays 66/1 Valero Texas Open

Daniel Summerhays 66/1

Summerhays has been playing well over the last few weeks with three top 30’s in his last five starts. He finished with a T30 at The Northern Trust Open, T17 at The Honda Classic and a T10 at The Valspar finishing on four under for the tournament. He has a great record here over the last three years finishing T2 last year, T7 in 2013 and a respectable T29 in 2012. He has been very steady so far this season with only two missed cuts in his last 18 competitive starts.

Summerhays is hitting 62% of fairways and ranks 22nd in strokes gained putting and 27th in scoring average. He also ranks 45th in par 3 scoring, 22nd in par 4 scoring and 21st in approaches from 175-200, which is a good stat for approaches into the four par 5’s. With a good record here over the last couple of years, Summerhays could feature at a big price.

 

Final selections –

Zach Johnson 28/1 2 pts EW

Kevin Na 33/1 1 pt EW

Brendan Steele 40/1 1 pt EW

Charley Hoffman 50/1 1 pt EW

Daniel Summerhays 66/1 1 pt EW

Total staked = 12 pts

 

Good luck and enjoy the golf,

 

Doublebogey6

 

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Arnold Palmer Invitational Betting Preview 2015

Arnold Palmer Invitational Betting Tips 2015

Bay Hill Club & Lodge, Orlando, Florida

Par 72, 7,419 yards

Last Week –

We had another winner last week on Jordan Spieth, who came in at 14/1 at The Valspar Championship beating Patrick Reed and Sean O’Hair in a dramatic sudden death playoff. Spieth shot a final round 69 and got a super 10 foot putt on the 18th to join the playoff. He then went on to halve the first two playoff holes, where Patrick Reed’s short game was absolutely superb getting up and down out of thick rough and tricky bunkers. Spieth then holed a huge 30 footer on the third playoff hole, which was the par 3 17th to get the win. That makes it our second winner in two weeks and our fifth winner of 2015. Let’s keep it going!

The Course

The next stop on the PGA Tour is The Arnold Palmer Invitational in Bay Hill. Tiger Woods has won this event an impressive eight times, but won’t be playing this week. This course is a par 72 and is a lengthy 7,419 yards. The course was designed by Dick Wilson in 1961, and illustrates his typical approach of slightly elevating the putting surfaces to improve visibility and drainage. The course covers 270 acres and lies between the community of Bay Hill, Florida and the Butler Chain of Lakes. Owned by Arnold Palmer since 1974, it has hosted the annual Arnold Palmer Invitational since 1979.

This course is a typical Florida setup with plenty of water and greenside bunkers coming into play. The course layout was changed in 2010 from a par 70 to a par 72 and has a total of four par 5’s, four par 3’s and 10 par 4’s. The reason for this was to allow the players to give themselves more opportunities to make birdies. The course is situated along the Butler Chain of Lakes and has a tendency to get windy. The fairways are quite forgiving here so driving accuracy isn’t too much of an issue. Like a lot of the Florida courses we have seen over the last few weeks, water hazards come into play on seven of the 18 holes.

There are four par 3’s, which are amongst the most difficult on the PGA Tour so par 3 scoring will be an important stat. Good par 5 performance stats will certainly be a big plus here with good ball striking, scrambling, putting and GIR also worth considering. Course history will also be important along with good previous form at Bay Hill.

 

Henrik Stenson Arnold Palmer Invitational 12/1

Henrik Stenson 12/1

Stenson started 2015 with a T13 at The Qatar Masters in January and followed that with another T13 at The Dubai Desert Classic. He is on a great run of form at present with a T4 at The WGC Cadillac in Doral and a solo 4th last week at The Valspar Championship, which included a super final round 67. He was playing great from the start of the tournament last week and looked to be hitting the ball really well throughout the tournament, especially with his very accurate iron play.

He has played well in Bay Hill over the last three years finishing T5 last year, T8 in 2013 and T15 in 2012. Stenson is one of the most consistent players on The European Tour ranking 24th in driving distance averaging 303 off the tee. He also ranks 3rd in GIR hitting 83% of greens so far this season. After two super performances over the last couple of weeks, Stenson comes back to Bay Hill in great form and could be a serious contender given his previous record here.

 

Keegan Bradley Arnold Palmer Invitational 35/1

Keegan Bradley 35/1

After a taking last week off, Keegan Bradley comes to Bay Hill well rested. He has been showing decent form over the last couple of months and had a good week at The Hero World Challenge finishing T3 and followed that with another T3 at The Franklin Templeton Shootout just before Christmas. He has been a bit up and down since with a T48 at The Humana and a T17 at The Phoenix Open. He finished T38 at The WGC Cadillac but had a great performance at The Northern Trust Open a couple of weeks before finishing T4 on five under for the tournament.

Bradley is another player that seems to suit this course with two top 5’s in his last two appearances finishing solo 2nd last year and T3 in 2013. He averages 302 yards off the tee ranking 15th in driving distance. He also ranks 12th in strokes gained tee to green, third in approaches from 250-275 and seventh in approaches from 200-225, which are two good stats for approaches into the four par 5’s.

 

Kevin Na 40/1 Arnold Palmer Invitational

Kevin Na 40/1

After a super final round 66 last week at The Valspar Championship, Kevin Na comes to Bay Hill showing some great form over the last couple of weeks. He was showing snippets of form since the beginning of the season back in October, with a T2 at The CIMB Classic and a T20 at The WGC HSBC Champions. Na also had a good week at The Phoenix Open finishing in a respectable T26 on six under par for the tournament. Most recently, he has posted two top 10’s in his last two tournaments finishing T9 in Doral and T10 last week.

He has played well here in the past finishing T14 last year, T4 in 2012, T30 in 2011 and T2 in 2010. He ranks 23rd in scrambling, 38th in par 3 scoring, 40th in par 4 scoring and 18th in par 3 birdie or better leaders. With a good current form and a good history at Bay Hill, Kevin Na could feature at a good price.

 

JB Holmes 45/1 Arnold Palmer Invitational

J.B. Holmes 45/1

J.B. Holmes is a player that should suit this course and has the power to make a lot of birdies. He is on a great run of form over the last few weeks with three top 10’s in his last four events. He came close to winning at The Farmers Insurance Open in Torrey Pines but lost on the third playoff hole to Jason Day. He had another good performance at Pebble Beach finishing T10 on 15 under for the tournament, which included an opening round 64. Most recently, Holmes played well at The Northern Trust Open finishing in a respectable T22nd and went close to winning yet again at The WGC Cadillac in Doral finishing solo 2nd, which included a superb first round 62.

J.B. has played well here in the past finishing T10 last year, T29 in 2012 and T21 in 2010. He is averaging 304 off the tee ranking 11th in driving distance. He also ranks fifth in strokes gained tee to green, sixth in birdie average, 38th in both par 3 and par 5 scoring and 11th in par 4 birdie or better leaders. Holmes has been knocking on the door of a win for the last few weeks and has the power and form to be a big danger man here this week.

J.B Holmes  45/1 – First Round Leader

In his last three starts at this event, J.B. has started with no worse than a 71. He started with a 68 last year, 71 in 2012 and a 66 in 2010. In his last five starts on the PGA Tour, Holmes has started with no worse than a 70 in round 1. He shot a record 62 in Doral, 70 at The Northern Trust Open, 64 in Pebble Beach, 69 at Torrey Pines and a 68 at The Phoenix Open. With a an early tee time of 08.47am and a good record at this event, Holmes could go very low here in round 1.

 

Final selections –

Henrik Stenson 2 pts EW

Keegan Bradley 1 pt EW

Kevin Na 1 pt EW

J.B. Holmes 1 pt EW

J.B. Holmes 1 pt EW – First Round Leader

Total staked = 12 pts

 

Good luck and enjoy the golf,

 

Doublebogey6

 

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Valspar Championship Betting Preview 2015

Valspar Championship Betting Preview 2015

Copperhead Course, Innisbrook Resort, Palm Harbour, Florida

Par 71, 7,340 yards

The Course

There are four golf courses at Innisbrook, all designed by Larry Packard, the oldest of which is the Island Course, which was completed in 1970. The Copperhead Course came next in 1974, and originally had 27 holes before nine were used as the basis of the Highlands North Course. The final addition was the Highlands South Course

The Copperhead course is a lengthy par 71 and has four par 5’s, five par 3’s and nine par 4’s. All but one of the par 3’s measure over 200 yards and will demand good accurate iron play to score on the greens, which are smaller than average for PGA Tour standards. The par 5’s measure between 560-605 yards and should be difficult to hit in two for most of the field. Two out of the four par 5’s have double doglegs so an accurate tee shot can be well rewarded. Although this course is long, there is more of an emphasis on accuracy. Players will score well if they place their tee shot in the right part of the fairways here.

Players that can work the ball both directions off the tee should also have a big advantage. Just like last week in Doral, water will be a key feature this week with it coming into play on 9 out of the 18 holes so expect some drama. This course features three tricky closing holes on the back 9 in the shape of 16, 17 and 18 which are called the “Snake Pit”. It consists of two very tricky par 4’s and a difficult par 3 and is known as one of the most difficult closing three hole stretches on Tour.

There are a few stats to consider on this course, the first one being accuracy off the tee. It also boasts five par 3’s and four par 5’s so be on the lookout for good par 3 and par 5 performance stats and good all round driving. The greens here are Bermuda greens and are quite small and tricky to read so be on the lookout for good GIR stats and accurate approach stats.

 

Jordan Spieth 14/1 Valspar ChampionshipJordan Spieth 14/1

After a respectable T17 last week at The WGC Cadillac, Jordan Spieth comes to Copperhead in great form. Other than a missed cut at The Farmers, Spieth hasn’t finished worse than T17 in his last six events. He had a great week at The Hero World Challenge in December shooting 26 under par in total to win the tournament. He followed that with another win, which came at The Australian Open, a T7 at The Phoenix Open, another T7 at The AT&T National in Pebble Beach and a T4 at The Northern Trust Open.

He has a good record here finishing T20 last year and T7 in 2013. Statswise he ranks 30th in driving distance, ninth in strokes gained tee to green, fourth in approaches from 275 and ninth in approaches from 200-225. He also ranks seventh in approaches from 150-175 and first in approaches from 100 yards. Spieth also ranks number one in putting from 15-20 feet, which is a good stat for these small greens. With great current form, good previous performances here and great approach stats, Jordan Spieth could be the man to beat here this week.

 

Jim Furyk 22/1 Valspar Championship 2015Jim Furyk 22/1

Furyk has been frustrating to watch over the last few years failing to get the job done on numerous occasions when in contention, falling off the pace after a bogey or two on the back nine on a Sunday. However, I think he will get that monkey off his back one of these days and Copperhead could be the place to do it. Furyk hasn’t finished worse than T14 in his last three starts and is one of the most consistent players on tour. He held the 54 hole lead in Pebble Beach a couple of weeks ago only to shoot a disappointing final round 74 to finish T7. He followed that with a respectable T14 at The Northern Trust Open finishing on two under for the tournament. Furyk also had a good performance at The WGC Cadillac last week finishing T12, which included a final round 69.

His record on this course is super with a win in 2010, T13 in 2011, T2 in 2012, T7 in 2013 and a T20 last year. Furyk ranks 10th in driving accuracy, 18th in GIR, first in strokes gained tee to green and second in approaches from 200 yards. He also ranks fourth in approaches from 100 yards, fourth in approaches from 175-200 and 27th in par 3 scoring. If he is going to get a win anywhere, it could be here.

 

Luke Donald 25/1 Valspar ChampionshipLuke Donald 25/1

Luke Donald has been showing some good form lately finishing T7 at The Honda Classic a couple of weeks ago, which included two 67’s to finish on three under for the tournament. He was showing some good form before Christmas playing well at The Nedbank Challenge in South Africa finishing solo 3rd on 12 under. He also had a good finish to the 2014 European Tour season finishing T26 at The DP World Championship in Dubai.

He has a great record on this course and hasn’t finished worse than T6 in his last four appearances. He played well here last year finishing T4, T4 again in 2013, won in 2012 and finished T6 in 2010. Donald is another player with good approach stats ranking 20th in approaches from 275 yards, 12th in approaches from 125-150, 12th from 150-175 and 18th in approaches from 100 yards. He also ranks second in putts from 8 feet, which is a good stat for these small Bermuda greens.

 

Kevin Na 50/1 Valspar Championship 2015Kevin Na 50/1         

After a respectable T9 last week at The WGC Cadillac, Kevin Na comes back to Copperhead showing some good recent form. He showed good consistency last week shooting 74,71,71,71 to finish one under for the tournament. He has been showing snippets of form over the last few months finishing T2 at The CIMB Classic back in November, T20 at The WGC HSBC Champions and more recently a T26 at The Phoenix Open. Na played well here last year shooting 70,68,68,70 on his way to a six under finish and solo second, one stroke behind the winner John Senden.

Statswise Na ranks 27th in par 3 scoring, 13th in approaches from 100-125 yards and 26th in approaches from 200-225 yards, which is a good stat for approaches into the long par 5’s. With a good performance last week and a top five last year, Na could feature at a good price.

 

Will MacKenzie 66/1 Valspar ChampionshipWill MacKenzie 66/1

After being off with an injured hand for the last couple of months, Will MacKenzie played his first event of 2015 in Puerto Rico last week and finished with an impressive T6. In his last five starts, he has finished with three top 10’s since the end of October. He started the season with a P2 at The McGladrey Classic, where he got into a playoff with eventual winner Robert Streb and was knocked out but played solid all week. He followed that with a T9 at The OHL Classic, which included an opening round 65 and a closing round 66 to post 11 under for the tournament.

MacKenzie ranks 25th in driving accuracy, third in GIR, third in strokes gained tee to green, second in strokes gained total and eighth in par 4 scoring. After a great performance last week in Puerto Rico and a top 5 here last year, MacKenzie could be another player that could feature at a big price.

 

Final Selections –

Jordan Spieth 2 pts EW 14/1

Jim Furyk 1 pt EW 22/1

Luke Donald 1 pt EW 25/1  

Kevin Na 1 pt EW 50/1

Will MacKenzie 1 pt EW 66/1

Total staked = 12 pts

 

Good luck and enjoy the golf,

 

Doublebogey6

 

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WGC Cadillac Championship Betting Preview 2015

WGC Cadillac Betting Preview Tips and Predictions

Blue Monster Course, Doral Resort, Florida Par 72, 7,528 yards

The Course

This course has undergone some serious surgery in the last two years with Donald Trump pumping 250 million dollars into the course to add length and increase the overall difficulty of the blue monster.

The course has four par 5’s, four par 3’s and 10 par 4’s and has an extra 47 yards added from last year. The par 5 first has 18 yards added to it, the par 3 fourth has an extra 24 yards and the par 4 eighteenth has an extra 5 yards added to it. These changes have made the Trump Doral inside the top five longest host courses on the PGA Tour.

Patrick Reed won this event last year shooting the highest score in the tournaments history finishing on 284 on four under par. Over the years, length has been of particular importance in this event. With this course now over 7,500 yards in length, it will be even more important so be on the lookout for bombers with good driving stats that are showing good recent form.

There are some main stats to consider going on previous years. Although length is key, par 4 scoring, par 5 scoring, GIR and total driving will be key here. This course is made for the likes of Bubba, Dustin Johnson, Patrick Reed and Phil Mickelson. The usual mix of good current form and good previous form on this course will also be worth checking out, especially last year, which was the first year the course changes took place.

Bubba Watson 14/1 WGC Cadillac

Bubba Watson 14/1
Bubba has been playing very consistent golf lately and hasn’t finished outside the top 15 in his last five events. His good form began back in November when he won the WGC HSBC Champions in Shanghai, where he finished on 11 under par. He then went on to finish T11 at The Hero World Challenge, solo 10th at The Hyundai Tournament of Champions and T2 at The Phoenix Open. Most recently, he had a good week at The Northern Trust Open finishing in a respectable T14 on two under for the tournament.

His record here at Doral is quite impressive finishing T2 last year, T18 in 2013 and solo 2nd in 2012. He ranks 11th in driving distance averaging 303 yards off the tee, sixth in strokes gained tee to green and first in strokes gained total. He also ranks first in par 5 scoring, 33rd in par 4 scoring and 25th in par 3 scoring. After taking the week off last week, Bubba should be fresh and ready to get in contention this week.

Dustin Johnson 20/1 WGC Cadillac

Dustin Johnson 20/1
Dustin Johnson made his return to the PGA Tour at The Farmers Insurance Open in Torrey Pines. Despite missing the cut, he followed that with a T4 at The AT&T in Pebble Beach finishing on 17 under for the tournament. He had another good week at The Northern Trust Open getting into a three way playoff, but was knocked out by the eventual winner, James Hahn. Johnson has a super record here at Doral with two top 5’s and a top 15 in his last four appearances. He finished T4 last year, T12 in 2013 and solo 2nd in 2011.

Johnson ranks first in driving distance averaging 313 yards off the tee. He ranks eighth in strokes gained tee to green, fifth in approaches from 200+ and third in approaches from 150-175. He also ranks 16th in par 3 scoring and 12th in par 5 birdie or better leaders. With such a good record on this course and two top 5’s in his last three starts, Johnson is hard to ignore here.

Patrick Reed 22/1 WGC Cadillac

Patrick Reed 22/1
After a dramatic finish at The Honda Classic on Monday afternoon, Patrick Reed looked right in the thick of things up to the point when he hit his tee shot on 15 into the water, which took him right out of contention. Despite that small setback, Reed has been playing well since December where he finished T3 at The Hero World Challenge. He followed that with a win at The Hyundai Tournament of Champions, T24 at The Humana and a T29 at The AT&T in Pebble Beach. He finished T7 last week at The Honda, shooting a final round 73 to finish three under for the tournament.

Reed played superb last year and came away with a win after shooting a total of four under for the tournament. Statswise he seems to fit the bill here averaging 293 off the tee and ranks 20th in strokes gained tee to green, 24th in strokes gained putting and fourth in approaches from 250-275, which is a good stat for approaches into the par 5’s. Reed also ranks eighth in par 4 scoring and 29th in par 5 scoring. After a good performance last week, Reed comes to Doral in good form and could have another good week after playing so well here last year.

Jamie Donaldson 40/1 WGC Cadillac

Jamie Donaldson 40/1
Donaldson has been playing well for the last couple of months and has only finished outside the top 25 twice in his last 10 events. He started 2015 off well with a T9 at The Abu Dhabi Championship finishing on 13 under, which included a third round 65. He followed that with T19 at The Farmers in Torrey Pines finishing on four under. Donaldson had a great week at The Honda shooting a final round 66 to finish solo 6th and played well here last year finishing T2, one stroke behind the winner Patrick Reed.

He is averaging 292 off the tee on The European Tour and ranks first in strokes gained putting so far this season. He ranks seventh in approaches from 175-200, fourth in approaches from 50-125 yards and 14th in par 5 scoring. After a top 10 last week at The Honda, Donaldson could have another great week here.

Luke Donald 50/1 WGC Cadillac

Luke Donald 50/1
After a disappointing start to the 2015 season, Luke Donald played well last week at The Honda finishing on three under and T7 for the tournament. He was showing some good form before Christmas playing well at The Nedbank Challenge in South Africa finishing solo 3rd on 12 under. He also had a good finish to the 2014 European Tour season finishing T26 at The DP World Championship in Dubai.

He has a good record at this event over the last few years with two top 10’s and a top 25 in his last four appearances. He finished T25 last year, T6 in 2012 and T6 again in 2011. After a good performance last week at The Honda, Donald could have another good week on a course he has played well on in the past.

Final selections –
Bubba Watson 2 pts EW
Dustin Johnson 1.5 pts EW
Patrick Reed 1.5 pts EW
Jamie Donaldson 1 pt EW
Luke Donald 1 pt EW
Total staked = 14 pts

Good Luck and enjoy the golf,

Doublebogey6

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