Shell Houston Open Betting Preview 2016

Shell Houston Open Betting Preview and Tips 2016

Golf Club of Houston, Humble, Texas 

7,441 yards, par 72   

The Course 

The Golf Club of Houston was designed by Reese Jones and was established in 2003. Since 2007, the tournament has been held the week before the Masters, giving the players one last chance to get into the field with a win.

This course is a decent test measuring just short of 7,500 yards. It is set up to replicate Augusta for next week and has a particular emphasis on length. For example, the four par 5’s on this course all measure over 550 yards and will require a decent drive if players are going for the green in two. The par 4’s will also require length with the 5th, 6th, 17th and 18th all measuring over 460 yards. Players that average between 295 and 300+ yards off the tee will be leaving themselves between an eight iron and a wedge into some of the longer par 4’s.

The main stats to consider here is obviously length, along with good par 3, par 4, par 5 scoring stats. The greens here are also quite tricky (like Augusta) with tight banks and plenty of run off areas so be on the lookout for guys with good greens in regulation stats.  The greens here will be pretty quick measuring roughly 13 on the stimp so strokes gained putting will be another stat to consider on this course.

 

Phil Mickelson 20/1 Shell Houston Open 2016

Phil Mickelson 20/1

With the exception of a poor front nine against Patrick Reed in the matchplay, Phil played well all week. He comes into this with four top 11 finishes this season starting with a T3 at the CareerBuilder Challenge which included four steady rounds in the 60’s finishing 21 under in total. He followed that with a T11 in Phoenix, solo second in Pebble Beach and a solo fifth at The WGC Cadillac in Doral.

Phil has a great record here over the last few years finishing T17 last year, T12 in 2014, T16 in 2013, T4 in 2012 and a win in 2011. He also ticks the boxes statswise averaging just under 300 yards off the tee, sixth in SGTTG and 14th in SGP. He also ranks fourth in par 3 scoring, 12th in par 4 scoring and 11th in par 5 scoring. With good current form and a great record on this course Phil could be one to watch.

 

Patrick Reed 22/1 Shell Houston Open 2016

Patrick Reed 22/1

Reed played well last week in the matchplay and was unlucky not progress further after getting into the last 16 but got beaten by big hitting Dustin Johnson. He has shown some great form this season with three top 10’s in his last five starts. He had a great week in Pebble Beach finishing T6 and followed that with a T7 at the Valspar and a T9 last week at the matchplay.

Reed played well here last year finishing in a respectable T17 which would have been a lot better if it weren’t for a final round 73. He also ticks a lot of boxes here ranking 49th in SGTTG, sixth in scrambling and 20th in par 4 scoring.

 

Charl Schwartzel 28/1 Shell Houston Open 2016

Charl Schwartzel 28/1

The South African has been in fine form lately with two wins and a top 10 in his last six starts. He finished T9 in The Nedbank Challenge just before Christmas and followed that with a win in The Tshwane Open in his native South Africa shooting an impressive final round 63 to finish 16 under for the tournament. More recently Schwartzel finished in a respectable T17 at The WGC Cadillac and following that with a superb win at The Valspar.

Schwartzel is hitting it just under 300 yards off the tee and ranks 11th in SGTTG and 34th in GIR. He has played well here in the past finishing T19 in 2014 and third in 2010. With superb current form and good previous performances here Schwartzel could be a big contender this week.

 

Brooks Koepka 30/1 Shell Houston Open 2016

Brooks Koepka 30/1

Brooks played well last week in The Matchplay winning his group but got knocked out by the eventual winner Jason Day to finish T5. He has been playing well over the last couple of months. He started the season off with a solo seventh at The Hero World Challenge and followed that with a T3 at The Hyundai Tournament of Champions. He hasn’t finished outside the top 30 in his last four events finishing T8 in Pebble Beach, T26 at The Honda, T23 at The WGC Cadillac and T5 last week.

Koepka looks like he could suit this course and is averaging 307 off the tee ranking ninth in driving distance and ninth in par 4 scoring. This course tends to suit the bombers and Koepka could follow up another great performance after playing well last week.

 

Phil Mickelson 25/1 – First Round Leader  

Phil has a great record on this course and hasn’t shot worse than a 70 in five of his last six opening rounds at The Golf Club of Houston. He started with a 66 last year, 68 in 2014, 65 in 2012, 70 in 2011 and a 69 in 2010.

He hasn’t shot worse than a 69 in his last six opening rounds and looks to be playing really well lately. He started with a 68 at the CareerBuilder Challenge, 69 at The Farmers, 69 in Phoenix, 68 in Pebble, 69 at The Honda and a 67 at The WGC Cadillac. With an 08.10 tee time and rain forecast in the afternoon Phil looks like he could get the better part of the day.

 

Final Selections –

Phil Mickelson 20/1 1.5pts EW

Patrick Reed 22/1 1.5pts EW

Charl Schwartzel 28/1 1pt EW

Brooks Koepka 30/1 1pt EW

Phil Mickelson FRL 25/1 1pt EW

Total staked = 12 pts

 

Good luck and enjoy the golf,

 

Doublebogey6

 

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WGC Dell Matchplay Betting Preview 2016

WGC Dell Matchplay Betting Preview 2016

Austin Country Club, Texas

Par 71, 7,043 Yards

The Course

Austin Country Club is located on a challenging Pete Dye-designed par 71 built in 1984 which overlooks Lake Austin. It has three par 5’s, four par 3’s and 11 par 4’s. The course has a lot of new features after being renovated last year. It now has deep pot bunkers, undulating turf and dramatic fairway falls and tree lined fairways. The front nine is on higher ground and has some elevated and hilly fairways with some of the tee shots being played over canyons and creeks.

The back nine is on flatter ground and runs along the picturesque Lake Austin. Some tee shots and approach shots will have to be played over the lake which should offer some excitement. There will be a bit of emphasis on accuracy here as there are a lot of pot bunkers scattered on the fairways and some are quite deep and penalizing. The greens are Bermuda and look to be fractionally bigger than usual. The main areas of focus here are driving accuracy, GIR, good matchplay experience and decent current form.

 

Format: (Taken from PGATOUR.com)

The 64-player Dell Match Play field will be divided into 16 four-player groups. Each group will play round-robin matches within their group on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday (March 23, 24 and 25). The player with the best record in each of the four player groups advances to the Round of 16 for single-elimination match play (in the event of a two-way tie in a group, head-to-head match results will be used as the tiebreaker; a three-way tie will require a sudden-death stroke play hole by hole playoff).

Group Play (Round Robin) Matches: 18 hole matches played to either a conclusion or a halve (matches will not be extended beyond 18 holes).

  • Wednesday, Round 1 – 32 matches (64 players)
  • Thursday, Round 2 – 32 matches (64 players)
  • Friday, Round 3 – 32 matches (64 players)

Players in the field are assigned a seed number for the competition determined by their position on the Official World Rankings, as of Monday the week of the tournament (March 21, 2016 – after the Arnold Palmer Invitational).  The highest ranked player in the field Seed #1, and the lowest ranked player in the field Seed #64.

Players are then placed into four pools of 16 players:

  • 1-16/Pool A
  • 17-32/Pool B
  • 33-48/Pool C
  • 49-64/Pool D

The top 16 players will be the top player in each of the 16 groups. So the No. 1 seed is the top player in Group 1, No. 2 seed is the top player in Group 2 and so on.

The remaining players in each group will be picked randomly live on the Golf Channel as part of the Dell Match Play Draw show on Monday, March 21, at the Paramount Theatre in downtown Austin (more info below).

Rounds 1, 2 and 3 (Group Play): Players play 18 hole matches against each of the other players in their group.  Matches played to either a conclusion or a halve.  Matches all square after 18 holes are not extended.  Points awarded to players based on results of each match as follows:  Winner 1 point, Loser 0 point, Halved each player ½ point.

The player in each group with the highest point total at the end of group play advances to the 16-player, single-elimination matches.  In the event two or more players in a group are equal with the highest point totals, a stroke play hole-by-hole playoff will determine the player that advances to the 16 player, single-elimination matches.

Group play hole-by-hole playoffs will be conducted after the matches in a group are complete and after all of the group play matches have started their third round match.  Group play hole-by-hole playoffs will start on the first hole and play holes 1 through 18 in sequence repeated if necessary, until the player is determined who will advance to the elimination play matches.

*Single-elimination matches – 18 hole matches played to a conclusion.  No halved matches.  Matches all square after 18 holes will be extended until a winner is determined.

Round 4 (Saturday morning): Eight matches (16 players) – winners advance to round 5/quarter-final matches.  Matches all square after 18 holes in round 4 extended on holes 10 through 18 and repeated if necessary.

Round 5 (Saturday afternoon): Four quarter-final matches (eight players) – winners advance to round 6 (semi-final) matches.  Matches all square after 18 holes in rounds 5 are extended on holes 12 through 18 and repeated if necessary.

Round 6 (Sunday morning): Two semi-final matches (four players) – winners advance to the championship match, losers advance to match for third place.  Matches all square after 18 holes in rounds 6 are extended on holes 12 through 18 and repeated if necessary.

Round 7 (Sunday afternoon): Match for third place (two players) and championship match (two players).  Matches all square after 18 holes in rounds 7 are extended on holes 12 through 18 and repeated if necessary.

 

Selections –

Jordan Spieth 12/1 WGC Dell Matchplay 2016

Jordan Spieth 12/1 

The young Texan is playing on home turf and will have a lot of support here this week. He comes into this after taking last week off and should be fresh and ready to contend. Although he has gone off the boil a bit over his last few events, Spieth has played well this season with a T7 at the WGC HSBC Champions, solo fourth at The Hero World Challenge and a win at The Hyundai Tournament of Champions. He has had a couple of uncharacteristic performances recently finishing T17 at The Valspar and T18 at The WGC Cadillac but could bounce back strong this week.

He has a decent matchplay record over the last few years and also has a great record in Texas finishing solo second in The Texas Open last year, solo 10th in 2014 and a P2 in Houston last year. Spieth looks to have the game to suit this course ranking 13th in SGTTG, 22nd in SGP and first in par 4 scoring. After taking some time off and playing in front of a home crowd, Jordan could be the man to beat here on home turf.

 

Paul Casey 30/1 WGC Dell Matchplay 2016

Paul Casey 30/1 

Casey has been back showing some good form over the last few weeks and comes here on the back of a T9 finish in Bay Hill last week. His Iron play in particular was superb and if the putter heated up a little bit he wouldn’t have been far away. He also had a good week in Doral finishing solo seventh at The WGC Cadillac which included two 68’s in round two and four. Casey ticks alot of boxes here statswise ranking ninth in GIR, 19th in SGTTG and 21st in par 4 scoring.

Casey played superb here last year and finished fifth after losing to Rory McIlroy on the 22nd hole. He has a great matchplay record and was a finalist in this event in 2009 and 2010. He also a former winner of The Volvo World Matchplay so he’s no stranger to this kind of format and is peaking in form at just the right time.

 

Danny Willett 35/1 WGC Dell Matchplay 2016

Danny Willett 35/1

Danny has been playing well over the last few months and had a great finish to the year with a T4 at The DP World Tour Championship followed by another T4 at The Nedbank. He began 2016 with a T54 in Abu Dhabi but bounced back with a win in Dubai at the start of February which included a 65,65,69 finish to post 19 under in total. He then had another superb performance at The WGC Cadillac to finish T3. He put himself in a great position to win but pulled his tee shot fractionally left on 18 into the water and got a bit unlucky.

He played superb here last year finishing third and only lost one match out of the six. The Englishman could suit this course and ranks 35th in GIR and 15th in strokes gained putting on the European Tour this season. With a solid performance here last year and great current form Danny looks great value here.

 

Marc Leishman 50/1 WGC Dell Matchplay 2016

Marc Leishman 50/1 

The Aussie played well last week in Bay Hill and only for a third round 74, he would have finished a hell of a lot better than T17. He has been showing glimpses of good form lately finishing T28 at The WGC Cadillac and T5 at The Northern Trust Open in Riviera shooting four steady rounds in the 60’s. Leishman has played well in this neck of the woods in the past finishing T3 in TPC Four Seasons at The Byron Nelson in 2014, T12 in 2013 and T3 in 2012.

He also played well here at The Matchplay in the past finishing ninth last year playing five matches and losing two and played well in The Presidents Cup winning two from two for the International Team. He ranks 15th in SGTTG, ninth in scrambling and third in par 4 scoring. With decent form lately and good matchplay form, Leishman looks good value here.

 

Final Selections – 

Jordan Spieth 12/1 2pts EW

Paul Casey 30/1 1.5pts EW

Danny Willett 35/1 1.5pts EW

Marc Leishman 50/1 1pt EW

 

Total staked = 12 pts 

 

Good luck and enjoy the golf,

Doublebogey6 

 

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Arnold Palmer Invitational Betting Preview 2016

Arnold Palmr Invitational Betting Preview 2016

Bay Hill Club & Lodge, Orlando, Florida

Par 72, 7,419 yards

The Course

The next stop on the PGA Tour is The Arnold Palmer Invitational in Bay Hill. Tiger Woods has won this event an impressive eight times, but won’t be playing this week. This course is a par 72 and is a lengthy 7,419 yards. The course was designed by Dick Wilson in 1961, and illustrates his typical approach of slightly elevating the putting surfaces to improve visibility and drainage. The course covers 270 acres and lies between the community of Bay Hill, Florida and the Butler Chain of Lakes. Owned by Arnold Palmer since 1974, it has hosted the annual Arnold Palmer Invitational since 1979.

This course is a typical Florida setup with plenty of water and greenside bunkers coming into play. The course layout was changed in 2010 from a par 70 to a par 72 and has a total of four par 5’s, four par 3’s and 10 par 4’s. The reason for this was to allow the players to give themselves more opportunities to make birdies. The course is situated along the Butler Chain of Lakes and has a tendency to get windy. The fairways are quite forgiving here so driving accuracy isn’t too much of an issue. Like a lot of the Florida courses we have seen over the last few weeks, water hazards come into play on roughly 9 of the 18 holes.

There are four par 3’s which are amongst the most difficult on the PGA Tour so par 3 scoring will be an important here. Good par 5 scoring stats will certainly be a big plus along with good ball striking, scrambling, putting and GIR. Good current form and good form around Bay Hill are also a big plus this week.

 

Adam Scott 8/1 Arnold Palmer Invitational Betting Preview 2016

Adam Scott 8/1

The big question on everyone’s lips this week is can Adam Scott do the hat trick and make it three in a row? In my opinion, yes. With two wins and a second in his last three events the Aussie is in absolutely flying form and is without a doubt the favourite here this week.

He played brilliantly in Riviera and just came up short despite chipping in on the 18th for a birdie to finish T2. He followed that with a win at The Honda shooting 70,65,66,70 to finish nine under for the tournament. He then had another great week at The WGC Cadillac in Doral recording his second win in two weeks finishing one clear after a miraculous up and down on the 18th. He has played well at Bay Hill in the past finishing T3 in 2014 which included an opening round course record 62.

Scott looks like he could suit this course ranking ninth in driving distance, sixth in GIR and first in SGTTG. He also ranks ninth in par 3 scoring and first in par 5 scoring which are two stats that will stand to him here at Bay Hill this week.

 

Henrik Stenson 12//1 Arnold Palmer Invitational Betting Preview 2016

Henrik Stenson 12/1

The Swede had a good performance at The Valspar last week shooting 71,70,70,72 on his way to a respectable T11 finish. He also had a good week in Doral finishing in a respectable T28, which would have been a lot better if it weren’t for a third round 76. Stenson started the year off with two top 6’s in the Desert Swing finishing T3 in Abu Dhabi and T6 the following week in Dubai.

He has a superb record around Bay Hill finishing second last year, fifth in 2014, T8 in 2013 and T15 in 2012. Stenson ticks a lot of boxes statswise here ranking fourth in stroke average, 22nd in driving accuracy, 13th in GIR and third in strokes gained putting. With some decent performances over the last few weeks and a great record here, Henrik Stenson could right the wrongs of last year and get the job done this week.

 

Ryan Moore 33/1 Arnold Palmer Invitational Betting Preview 2016

Ryan Moore 33/1

After another solid performance at The Valspar last week, I’ve decided to give Ryan Moore another go here in Bay Hill. He added another top 10 finish to the list last week finishing solo third at Copperhead making that five top 11’s in seven starts. He started the season with a T10 at The Frys, T10 at The CIMB Classic, T11 in Phoenix and a solo 10th in Riviera at The Northern Trust Open which included a superb ace on the 16th in the final round.

Moore has played well here in the past finishing fourth here in 2012 and 12th in 2011. Statswise he ranks 30th in driving distance, 18th in SGTTG, second in par 3 scoring and ninth in par 4 scoring. If he putts well here this week he could be right in the mix.

 

Brandt Snedeker 40/1 Arnold Palmer Invitational Betting Preview 2016

Brandt Snedeker 40/1

It seems Sneds has recovered from sore ribs after withdrawing from the WGC Cadillac in Doral a couple of weeks and could come back with a bang here at Bay Hill. He has had a superb season so far which began with a T17 at The Frys and a win at The Franklin Templeton with partner Jason Dufner.

He started 2016 off with a T3 at The Hyundai Tournament of Champions, lost out in a playoff at The Sony in Hawaii and had a superb win in Torrey Pines which included a superb final round 69 in almost unplayable conditions. He’s gone a bit quiet lately finishing T33 in Phoenix and T35 in Pebble but can come back to good form on a course he has played well on in the past.

He finished 13th here last year and eighth in 2014 and ticks a lot of boxes statistically. He is averaging just over 295 off the tee and ranks sixth in SGP. He also ranks 12th in par 3 scoring and ninth in par 4 scoring. If he’s fit and healthy he should be right in the mix.

 

Jason Kokrak 60/1 Arnold Palmer Invitational Betting Preview 2016

Jason Kokrak 60/1

Kokrak came close to victory in Riviera and played solidly all week. He began with a 68 in round one and followed that with a 64,70,68 to finish 14 under just falling one short of winner Bubba Watson. He has had a mixed bag of form this season finishing T12 at The Sanderson Farms and followed that with a T17 at The OHL Classic. He started 2016 with a respectable T25 at The Farmers in Torrey pines and had another decent week in Pebble with a T30 finish.

He’s gone a bit cold over the last couple of weeks but has a great record here finishing sixth here last year and fourth in 2014. Kokrak is a huge hitter averaging 310 off the tee ranking seventh in driving distance. With four par 5’s and a good record over the last two years, Kokrak can go well here at a big price.

 

Final Selections –

Adam Scott 8/1 2pts EW

Henrik Stenson 12/1 2pts EW

Ryan Moore 33/1 1pt EW

Brandt Snedeker 40/1 1pt EW

Jaosn Kokrak 60/1 1pt EW

Total Staked = 14 pts

 

Paddypower paying 7 places this week. 

 

Good luck and enjoy the golf,

 

Doublebogey6

 

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Valspar Championship Betting Preview 2016

Valspar Championship Betting Preview 2016

Copperhead Course, Innisbrook Resort, Palm Harbour, Florida 

Par 71, 7,340 yards 

The Course 

The PGA Tour stays in Florida this week as we head to Copperhead. There are four golf courses at Innisbrook, all designed by Larry Packard, the oldest of which is the Island Course, which was completed in 1970. The Copperhead Course came next in 1974, and originally had 27 holes before nine were used as the basis of the Highlands North Course. The final addition was the Highlands South Course.

The Copperhead course underwent some subtle changes last year with bigger tee boxes, re shaped bunkers around the greens and re grassed fairways. It is a lengthy par 71 and has four par 5’s, five par 3’s and nine par 4’s.  All but one of the par 3’s measure over 200 yards and will demand good accurate iron play to score on the greens, which are smaller than average for PGA Tour standards.

Three of the four par 5’s, the first, 11th and 14th are pretty easy and should offer up plenty of birdies. Two out of the four par 5’s have double doglegs so an accurate tee shot can be well rewarded.  Although this course is long, there is more of an emphasis on accuracy with players reaping the rewards with accuracy off the tee on some holes.

Players that can work the ball both directions off the tee should also have a big advantage. Just like last week in Doral, water will be a key feature this week with it coming into play on 9 out of the 18 holes. This course features three tricky closing holes on the back nine in the shape of 16, 17 and 18 which are called the “Snake Pit”. It consists of two very tricky par 4’s and a difficult par 3 and is known as one of the most difficult closing three hole stretches on Tour.

There are a few stats to consider on this course, the first one being accuracy off the tee. It also boasts five par 3’s and four par 5’s so be on the lookout for good par 3 and par 5 performance stats. The greens here are Bermuda greens and are quite small and tricky to read so be on the lookout for good GIR stats and accurate iron players.

 

Danny Willett 20/1 Valspar Championship 2016 Betting Preview

Danny Willett 20/1

Danny was really impressive last week in Doral and if it weren’t for one slightly pulled tee shot on the 18th, he could have been in a position to win had it not found the water. Instead he finished with a bogey to finish 10 under and T3 for the tournament. He has been playing great golf over the last few months with a win in Dubai in early February, a T4 at The Nedbank Challenge and a T4 at the DP World Tour Championship.

Danny looked particularly impressive last week with his irons and around the greens which should bode well around Copperhead. He ranks eighth in stroke average, 38th in GIR and 14th in strokes gained putting. After playing great last week in a top class field, Danny looks in fine form coming into this week and could be one to watch.

 

Harris English 33/1 Valspar Championship Betting Preview 2016

Harris English 33/1

English has been in good form and comes into this week on the back of two top 10’s in his last three starts. He had a great week in Phoenix shooting a superb final round 66 to finish in 12 under and solo third for the tournament. He followed that with another solid performance last week in Doral finishing solo 10th on four under for the week.

He has played well here in the past finishing T10 here last year and T7 in 2013 and ranks 29th in SGP and 34th in par 4 scoring. After two good performances recently Harris English could be another danger man here this week.

 

Jason Dufner 30/1 Valspar Championship Betting Preview 2016

Jason Dufner 30/1

Dufner has had a good season so far and had a good week in Doral finishing T11. He started well shooting 68,72 and had a poor third round 77 that took him out of contention but finished strongly with a 68 in the final round to finish three under par for the tournament. He started the season with a back to back T9’s at The RSM Classic and The Sony and followed that with a win at The CareerBuilder Challenge. He has gone a bit cold over the last few weeks but showed a return to form last week and it comes at a good time.

Dufner has a good record here finishing T24 last year, T14 in 2014, T21 in 2013, T10 in 2012 and back to back T28’s in 2011 and 2010. He is hitting 65% of fairways off the tee and ranks 39th in GIR, 28th in SGTTG and 30th in par 5 scoring. If it weren’t for a third round 77 last week in Doral, it could have been a different week for Dufner and can bounce back strongly here this week.

 

K.J. Choi 45/1 Valspar Championship Betting Preview 2016

K.J Choi 45/1

K.J came close to a win in Torrey Pines recently but just finished one shy of Brandt Snedeker. He played well all week shooting 68,67,72 and then got hit hard by the stormy weather and shot a final round 76 to finish solo 2nd. He followed that with a T17 at The Phoenix Open and finished T5 in Riviera at The Northern Trust Open.

Choi has a good record around Copperhead with a win in 2006, T6 in 2007, second in 2010 and T21 in 2013. He ranks 23rd in driving accuracy, 26th in SGP, third in par 3 scoring and fourth in sand saves. With good form over the last few weeks and a good record here K.J looks great value here at 45’s.

 

Ryan Moore 45/1 Valspar Championship Betting Preview 2016

Ryan Moore 45/1

With four top 11’s in his last six starts, Ryan Moore comes into this week looking like a serious contender. He started the season with a T10 at The Frys, T10 at The CIMB Classic, T11 in Phoenix and a solo 10th in Riviera at The Northern Trust Open which included a superb ace on the 16th in the final round. Moore played well here last year finishing solo fifth which could have been a lot better if it weren’t for a disappointing final round 72.

He is hitting over 65% of fairways off the tee and ranks 31st in SGTTG, 40th in SGP, second in par 3 scoring and ninth in par 4 scoring. After a good performance here last year Moore looks great value here to have another good week.

 

 

Final selections –

Danny Willett 2pts EW 20/1

Harris English 1pt EW 33/1

Jason Dufner 1pt EW 30/1

K.J Choi 1pt EW 45/1

Ryan Moore 1pt EW 45/1

 

Good Luck and enjoy the golf,

 

Doublebogey6

 

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WGC Cadillac Championship Betting Preview 2016

WGC Cadillac Betting Preview 2016

Blue Monster Course, Doral Resort, Florida Par 72, 7,543 yards 

The Course 

This course has undergone some serious surgery in the last two years with Donald Trump pumping 250 million dollars into the course to add length and increase the overall difficulty of the blue monster.

The course has four par 5’s, four par 3’s and 10 par 4’s and has an extra 47 yards added onto it. The par 5 first measures a lengthy 605 yards, the par 3 fourth has an extra 24 yards and the par 4 eighteenth has an extra 5 yards added to it. These changes have made the Trump Doral inside the top five longest host courses on the PGA Tour.

Dustin Johnson won here last year on nine under and Patrick Reed won this event in 2014 shooting the highest score in the tournaments history finishing on 284 on four under par. Over the years, length has been of particular importance in this event. With this course now over 7,500 yards in length, it will be even more important so be on the lookout for bombers with good driving stats that are showing good recent form.

There are some main stats to consider going on previous years. Although length is key, par 4 scoring, par 5 scoring and GIR will be important here. The usual mix of good current form and good previous form on this course will also be worth checking out especially over the last two years since the course changes took place.

 

Bubba Watson 11/1 WGC Cadillac Betting Preview 2016

Bubba Watson 11/1

Bubba comes into this week in good form and played superbly well recently in Riviera shooting a 68 in the final round to win by one stroke over Jason Kokrak and Adam Scott. He has two wins and two top 15’s in his last four starts. He won The Hero World Challenge back in December and followed that with a T10 at The Hyundai Tournament of Champions and a T14 at The Phoenix Open.

He has a great record here at Doral finishing T3 last year, T2 in 2014, T18 in 2013 and T2 in 2012. Bubba also ticks a lot of boxes statistically here ranking sixth in driving distance, sixth in GIR and fourth in SGTTG. He also ranks 28th in par 4 scoring and 19th in par 5 scoring and should feel at home on this course where he has played well on in the past and seems to suit his game.

 

Dustin Johnson 12/1 WGC Cadillac Championship Betting Preview 2016

Dustin Johnson 12/1

I thought DJ looked more confident at Riviera and played well all week finishing solo fourth and showed a lot of consistency shooting 68,66,68,69 to finish 13 under in total. His form has been good finishing T5 at The WGC HSBC Champions, 15th at The Hero World Challenge, T10 at the Hyundai Tournament of Champions and T18 at The Farmers in Torrey Pines which would have been a lot better if it weren’t for a final round 80 in near unplayable conditions.

Johnson is another player with a great record in Doral with a win last year, T4 in 2014, T12 in 2013 and T2 in 2011. He also ticks a lot of boxes here ranking seventh in driving distance, ninth in SGTTG, 28th in par 4 scoring and 13th in par 5 scoring. After playing well over the last few weeks DJ should be a huge contender here.

 

JB Holmes 30/1 WGC Cadillac Championship Betting Preview 2016

J.B. Holmes 30/1

Regular readers of this blog will know I have tipped J.B a lot over the last few weeks and ive decided to give him another go this week. Despite not winning me anything over the last few weeks, he has been playing decent with six top 12’s in his last seven events. He started the season well with a T8 at the Hero World Challenge and followed that with a T12 at The Franklin Templeton Shootout, T6 at The Farmers, T6 in Phoenix, T11 in Pebble and T11 at The Northern Trust Open.

J.B finished T2 here last year shooting an impressive 62 in round one and is another bomber off the tee which should suit this course. He ranks third in driving distance, sixth in SGTTG and 20th in par 4 scoring. With some quality performances over the last few weeks and a good week here in Doral last year, J.B looks a solid bet here this week.

 

Henrik Stenson 28/1 WGC Cadillac Championship Betting Preview 2016

Henrik Stenson 28/1

The Swede has bounced back well after an injury and has been playing well over the last couple of months. He played well at the WGC HSBC Champions finishing T11 and followed that with a T3 at The BMW Masters. He also had a good week at The Nedbank before Christmas finishing solo second and started the New Year with a T3 in Abu Dhabi and a T6 in Dubai.

Stenson is another player with a good record here finishing T4 here last year and T16 in 2013. He also fits the bill here ranking 11th in GIR, second in strokes gained putting and 18th in driving accuracy. Stenson is another big hitter and should go well here especially after playing so well in the desert swing.

 

First Round Leader –

Dustin Johnson 18/1

With such a good record at this venue, Dustin Johnson has gone low here in round one over the last few years and hasn’t shot worse than a 69 in four of his last five opening rounds in Doral. He started with a 69 in 2011, 68 in 2013, 69 in 2014 and a 68 last year.

In his last six opening rounds he has only shot over 70 once, which was at The Hyundai Tournament of Champions where he opened with a 73 and bounced back with a 67,68,69 to finish -14. Most recently he opened with a 70 in Torrey Pines in The Farmers Insurance Open, 70 in Pebble Beach and an impressive 68 in Riviera at The Northern Trust Open. After a solo fourth in Riviera and four rounds in the 60’s, I fancy DJ to start strongly and open with a low one here.

 

Final Selections –

Bubba Watson 11/1 2pts EW

Dustin Johnson 12/1 2pts EW

J.B. Holmes 30/1 1pt EW

Henrik Stenson 28/1 1pt EW

Dustin Johsnon 18/1 1pt EW First Round Leader

Total Staked = 14 pts

 

Good luck and enjoy the golf,

 

Doublebogey6

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