Houston Open Betting Preview 2018

Shell Houston Open Betting Preview and Tips 2018Golf Club of Houston, Humble, Texas   

7,441 yards, par 72    

The Course   

Welcome to my Houston Open Betting Preview 2018 its good to be back. The Golf Club of Houston was designed by Reese Jones and was established in 2003. Since 2007, the tournament has traditionally been held the week before the Masters for the last few years giving the players one last chance to get into the field with a win.

The fairways are wide and forgiving with very little rough with water in play on roughly 9 of the 18 holes. The greens are set up similar to Augusta in preparation for next week and has a particular emphasis on length. For example, the four par 5’s on this course all measure over 550 yards and will require a decent drive if players are going for the green in two. The par 4’s will also require length with the 5th, 6th, 17th and 18th all measuring over 460 yards. Players that average between 295 and 300+ yards off the tee will be leaving themselves between an eight iron and a wedge into some of the longer par 4’s.   

The main stats to consider here is obviously length, along with good par 3, par 4, par 5 scoring stats. The greens here are also quite tricky (like Augusta) with tight banks and plenty of run off areas so be on the lookout for players with good GIR stats.  The greens here will be pretty quick measuring roughly 13 on the stimp so strokes gained putting will be another stat to consider on this course.

 

Phil Mickelson 12/1 Shell Houston Open Betting Preview 2018Phil Mickelson 12/1 

After an early finish at the WGC Matchplay last week, Phil should be primed and ready to go for a competitive couple of weeks starting this week in Houston. Lefty has been playing some great golf this year with a win and three top 10’s in his last five starts.

He started the season off with an impressive T3 at the Safeway Open followed by a respectable T15 at the WGC HSBC Champions. His more recent form figures read 5,2,6,1,17 and started with a great week in Phoenix posting a T5 and followed that with a T2 in Pebble and an impressive T6 in Riviera at the Genesis Open.

The Five-time major winner then traveled to Mexico and defeated Justin Thomas in a play-off after an exciting final round 66 at the WGC-Mexico Championship to claim his first victory since the 2013 Open. Mickelson has a great record here in Houston with form figures 55,13,17,12,16,4 including a win in 2011 in his last seven appearances.

Statswise he is averaging just over 300 yards off the tee and ranks 19th in SGTTG, second in SGP and seventh in par 4 scoring. Mickelson is brimming with confidence since winning in Mexico and has to be a big contender here this week.

 

Luke List 25/1 Shell Houston Open Betting Preview 2018Luke List 25/1

List was a bit unlucky to break his putter last week in the first round of the WGC Matchplay. He went toe to toe with the in form Justin Thomas in round one and despite breaking putter walking off the sixth, he still took Thomas to the 16th green where he eventually lost 2&1.

He said afterwards “I was walking off the 6th tee, and I was a little unhappy about the way I was feeling, a little under the weather, and I thought it was like a brush area and I just kind of swiped my putter, and it turned out to be a wall. It bent like a fraction of an inch. So unfortunately I couldn’t use it the rest of the way. Stupid on my part.” Granted, it was a bit silly but you have to give credit where its due, he still putted pretty well with a wedge for the guts of 11 holes.

His form has been solid over the last few weeks with form figures 26,2,16,7 in his last four starts. List had a respectable week in Torrey Pines finishing T26 and followed that with a solo second at the Honda, where he lost a playoff to Justin Thomas, a T16 a the Valspar and a T7 in Bay Hill. List has played here twice before finishing T3 last year which included three rounds of 68 or better and a T27 in 2016.

Statswise The American ranks third in driving distance averaging an impressive 316 off the tee and 11th in SGTTG. After being knocked out of the Matchplay early, that could work to his advantage here.

 

Rafa Cabrera Bello 33/1 Shell Houston Open Betting Preview 2018Rafa Cabrera Bello 33/1 

RCB has been steady as they come recently and arrives to Houston in good form. He was knocked out of the matchplay early last week so he has had plenty of time to get his game right here. His form figures over the last couple of months reads 40,6,26,26,29,3,36.

He started the year with a T6 in Dubai in late January and followed that with back to back T26’s in Riviera and Pebble beach and a T29 at the Honda. The Spaniard then traveled to the WGC Mexico Championship and shot four rounds of 69 or better, including an opening round 66 to finish T3 for the tournament.

He has played here twice before finishing solo fourth in 2016 which included a 68,65 over the weekend and an MC last year. Statswise he ticks the boxes here ranking sixth in GIR, 13TH in SGTTG, 45th in SGP and 25th in par 4 scoring. Rafa should be well rested after a weekend off last week and looks decent value to have another good week in Houston.

 

Final Selections – 

Phil Mickelson 12/1 1pt EW

Luke List 25/1 1pt EW

Rafa Cabrera Bello 33/1 1pt EW

Total staked = 6pts

 

Good luck and enjoy the golf.

Doublebogey6

 

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Valspar Championship Betting Preview  2018

Valspar Championship Betting Preview 2018Copperhead Course, Innisbrook Resort, Palm Harbour, Florida   

Par 71, 7,340 yards   

The Course   

There are four golf courses at Innisbrook all designed by Larry Packard, the oldest of which is the Island Course, which was completed in 1970. The Copperhead Course came next in 1974, and originally had 27 holes before nine were used as the basis of the Highlands North Course. The final addition was the Highlands South Course.  

The Copperhead course underwent some subtle changes in 2015 with bigger tee boxes, re shaped bunkers around the greens and re grassed fairways. It is a lengthy par 71 and has four par 5’s, five par 3’s and nine par 4’s.  All but one of the par 3’s measure over 200 yards and will demand accurate iron play to score on the greens, which are smaller than average for PGA Tour standards.  

Three of the four par 5’s, the first, 11th and 14th are pretty easy and should offer up plenty of birdies. Two out of the four par 5’s have double doglegs so an accurate tee shot can be well rewarded.  Although this course is long, there is more of an emphasis on accuracy with players reaping the rewards with accuracy off the tee on some holes.     

Players that can work the ball both directions off the tee should also have a big advantage. Water will be a key feature and comes into play on 9 out of the 18 holes. This course features three tricky closing holes on the back nine in the shape of 16, 17 and 18 which are called the “Snake Pit”. It consists of two very tricky par 4’s and a difficult par 3 and is known as one of the most difficult closing three hole stretches on Tour.     

There are a few stats to consider on this course, the first one being accuracy off the tee. It also boasts five par 3’s and four par 5’s so be on the lookout for good par 3 and par 5 performance stats. The greens here are Bermuda greens and are quite small and tricky to read so be on the lookout for good GIR stats and accurate iron players.

 

Henrik Stenson 18/1 Valspar Betting Preview 2018Henrik Stenson 18/1

The Swede has only played a handful of events over the last couple of months but when he has teed it up, he has played very well.

Stenson travels to Florida on the back of three top 10’s in his last five starts and returns to a course where he has played exceptionally well on in the past.

He had a great week at the WGC HSBC Champions in China back in October finishing T2 which included four rounds of 70 or better to finish 12 under. After a disappointing T35 in Turkey in November, Stenson bounced back finishing solo eighth in Abu Dhabi which included an impressive final round 65. He then travelled to Dubai at the end of January and finished T6 at the Dubai Desert Classic where he didn’t shoot worse than a 70 throughout the week.

Stenson seems to be a player that consistently plays well on courses he has a good record on. For example, he hasn’t finished outside the top 10 at both the Dubai Desert Classic and Abu Dhabi in his last six appearances proving he’s a horse for the course type of player.

His record here at Copperhead is impressive with form figures 7,11,4 in his last three appearances and ticks a lot boxes here ranking third in driving accuracy, fourth in GIR and fourth in putts per GIR. With a great record here and good current form, the Swede looks a decent bet at 18’s.

 

Adam Hadwin Valspar Championship Betting Preview 2018Adam Hadwin 30/1

The defending Champion returns to the site of his one and only PGA Tour win in great form with three top 10’s in his last five starts.

The Canadian had a good week at the CareerBuilder Challenge at the end of January finishing T3 shooting four rounds of 68 or better. He followed that with an impressive T6 in Riviera at the Genesis Open which included two 66’s over the weekend. Hadwin then kept up that good run of form last week in Mexico where he finished T9 at the WGC Mexico where, again he finished strongly firing 67,66 on Saturday and Sunday to post 10 under.

He played pretty flawless golf last year shooting 68,64,67 in the opening three rounds and finished with a respectable 71 to win by one from Patrick Cantlay on 14 under. With two top 10’s in his last two starts, Hadwin will be feeling confident he can have another good week at Copperhead.

 

Ryan Moore 35/1 Valspar Championship Betting Preview 2018Ryan Moore 35/1

Like Stenson, Ryan Moore is another horse for the course here with two top 10’s and a top 20 in his last three appearances here.

Moore has had a fairly quiet season so far playing in only six events so far but he has two top 10’s in his last four starts which in encouraging. He started the season with a respectable T17 at the Safeway back in October and followed that with a T6 at the OHL Classic back in December shooting rounds of 70,66,67,68 to post 13 under.

After a missed cut in Phoenix, he bounced back with an impressive T9 in Riviera at The Genesis Open which included two opening 68’s.

Moore has a great record here over the last few years finishing T8 in 2007, T19 in 2009, solo fifth in 2015, solo third in 2016 and T18 last year.

Statswise he ticks some key boxes here ranking 33rd in SG Putting, 20th in strokes gained around the green and 33rd in par 5 scoring. With decent current form and a great record here Moore looks good value at 35/1.

 

Final selections – 

Henrik Stenson 1pt EW

Adam Hadwin 1pt EW

Ryan Moore 1pt EW

Total staked = 6pts *some bookies paying 7 places*

 

Good luck and enjoy the golf.

Doublebogey6

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