HP Byron Nelson Championship Betting Preview

HP Byron Nelson pic 3

TPC Four Seasons Resort, Irving, Texas
7,166 yards, par 70

The Course

This course was originally designed by Jay Morrish in 1983 but underwent some major changes in 2007. The layout now has large, undulating greens which invite the players to use the slopes to get their shots closer to the pins. There are also quite a lot of run off areas so ball control will be key as poor shots will be severely penalizing. This course has two par 5’s, four par 3’s and a massive 12 par 4’s.

There was a lot of tree landscaping done that brings ponds and creeks into play. Par 4 performance, strokes gained putting, GIR and driving accuracy will be key stats to consider here at TPC Four Seasons this week. The 18th hole features a unique “water cascade” that extends from the landing area to the green.

Jordan Spieth 12/1
Spieth has arrived on the PGA Tour with a bang over the last couple of years. He has surprised everyone contending in tournaments that people, including myself, thought he wouldn’t contend in. Jordan played extremely well last week in Sawgrass and put himself in a position to win after a superb second round 66.

Sadly his ball striking wasn’t as good in the final round and he was beaten by Martin Kaymer. He also came very close to winning in Augusta but was defeated by Bubba Watson which, in my opinion, was down to lack of experience. Believe me, this kid will win in Augusta in years to come.

Spieth made his debut here in 2010 and finished in a respectable T16th. Statswise he ranks 25th in strokes gained putting and ninth in par 4 performance. He comes here with four top 12 finishes in his last four starts including two top five’s. Spieth went to the University of Texas and grew up in Dallas so he should feel at home here this week.

Keegan Bradley 22/1
Keegan has had a mixed season so far and comes here after missing the cut at The Players, but don’t let that put you off. Bradley has two top ten’s in his last five event s. He played well at The Arnold Palmer back at the end of March finishing in solo second. He also had a great week at The Zurich Classic of New Orleans finishing in eighth, which could have been a lot better if it weren’t for a poor final round 75.

Keegan has a good history on this course with a victory in 2011, 24th in 2012 and a second place finish last year. He ranks 24th in driving distance, 11th in birdie average and ninth in par 4 performance this season. With a good history here and good current form, Keegan looks a smart play here at TPC Four Seasons.

Gary Woodland 28/1
Gary Woodland is showing a lot of steady form finishing no worse than 26th in his last six starts. He played well at The Valspar Championship in mid-March finishing in T8th for the week. He then had a T20th at The Arnold Palmer and a respectable T26th finish at The Masters. Most recently, he had a good performance at The Wells Fargo shooting five under par for the week to finish in T18th.

Last week at The Players he started well with a 67 and followed that with a 71, 70 and a 72 in the final round. His previous performances in this event don’t exactly jump off the page. His best finish here came in 2012 when he finished 24th.

However I think he sets up well for this course and comes here showing some great form. Gary ranks 19th in driving distance, 27th in GIR, 17th in birdie average, 17th in par 4 performance and eighth in putts from inside five feet.

HP Byron Nelson pic 2

Robert Garrigus 66//1
Garrigus is a little streaky to say the least but he seems to be showing some good form over the last couple of months. He had a good week at The Valspar Championship in March finishing fourth. He started very well but seems to have taken the foot off the pedal a bit in the final round shooting a disappointing 75.

He also had a good performance at The Zurich Classic of New Orleans a couple of weeks ago where he started poorly with an opening round 73. He then bounced back with a 69, 68 in round two and three and finished with a superb final round 64 to finish 14 under for the tournament.

He ranks 10th in driving distance, 33rd in birdie average and third in par 5 performance. Garrigus has had some good previous performances finishing ninth in 2012, 20th in 2011 and 16th in 2009. With good previous performances and decent current form, he looks to be great value at 66/1.

Ryo Ishikawa 66/1
Ishikawa has played very well this season and has four top 10’s so far on the PGA Tour. He has three top 20’s in his last six events including a T8th finish at The Arnold Palmer Invitational. He also played very well at The RBC Heritage a couple of weeks ago after bouncing back after a poor start. He shot an opening round of 77 but recovered well shooting 68, 67 and 69 in the final round to finish T18th. Most recently, he played in The Crowns on the Japanese Tour the week before last and finished in T5th so his game is in good shape.

Ishikawa played very well here last year shooting 71, 68,68, 67 on his way to a 10th place finish. After playing so well recently in Japan he will come here feeling recharged on a course he performed so well on last year.

Justin Hicks 80/1
Hicks had a good week in Sawgrass shooting a 68 in the final round on his way to a respectable T17th. He was pretty steady all week shooting a 73 in the opening round and followed that with a 70 and a 71 in round three. Before The Players, Hicks had a good performance at The Texas Open a few weeks back finishing in 15th and 2 under par for the tournament.

Over the last three years he has played here twice and finished 21st last year and 14th in 2011 so his previous form is good. Hicks ranks sixth in driving accuracy, fourth in GIR and 44th in strokes gained putting. Good each way shout for a guy showing some form and has some solid previous performances.

Final Selections:
Jordan Spieth 2pts ew/ 4 pts total
Keegan Bradley 2 pts ew/ 4 pts total
Gary Woodland 1.5 pts ew/ 3 pts total
Robert Garrigus 1 pt ew/ 2 pts total
Ryo Ishikawa 1 pt ew/ 2 pts total
Justin Hicks 1 pt ew/ 2 pts total
Total Staked = 17 pts

Good luck and enjoy the golf,

DB

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