Hilton Head, South Carolina
Par 71, 7,101 yards
This event has been played at Harbour Town Golf Links for many years now and the same players seem to play well here. The course is a short 7,101 yards and has three par 5’s, four par 3’s and 11 par 4’s. It is a tight course with tree lined fairways and small greens, which are ranked among the most difficult to hit on the PGA Tour. History suggests that the good, accurate ball strikers and good putters tend to do well around here. The greens here are quite small by Tour standards so GIR and good scrambling will be two key stats to look at. Hilton Head also tends to be quite windy so be on the lookout for good wind players.
The main stats to consider here are driving accuracy, GIR, par 4 scoring, scrambling and proximity to the hole. Unlike last week in Augusta National, you don’t need to be long on this course so a lot of the shorter more accurate players should come into the mix. Weather forecast is set to be cloudy and humid with showers and the possibility of thunderstorms on Thursday and Friday. The weekend will be cloudy, dry and humid with gusts up to 20 mph.
Zach Johnson 16/1
After a great performance last week in Augusta, Zach Johnson recorded his second top 10 finish in his last three starts finishing T9 at The Masters. He also played well the week before at The Valero Texas Open finishing T20, which would have been a lot better if it weren’t for a poor final round 76. He also played well the week before at The Arnold Palmer Invitational finishing T9, which included an impressive final round 66.
He has played well at Hilton Head in the past finishing solo second in 2012, five strokes behind the winner Carl Pettersson. He ranks 21st in driving accuracy, 19th in strokes gained tee to green, 22nd in par 4 scoring and 23rd in par 5 scoring. Statswise Johnson’s game should suit this course and he comes here in good form, especially after a good week at Augusta.
Webb Simpson 33/1
Webb is another player that had a good week at Augusta and looked to be hitting the ball well all week. He had a disappointing 75 in round 2, but shot a 72,71 at the weekend to finish in respectable T28 on -1 for the tournament. He hasn’t played in many tournaments this year but has recorded two top 10 finishes and a top 15 in his last six starts. He had a good week at The Sony Open back in January finishing T13 on -11 for the tournament, which included an opening round 62. He followed that with a T7 at The Humana Challenge and another T7 at The WGC Cadillac in Doral.
He has played well here in the past finishing solo 2nd in 2013, T14 in 2011 and T14 in 2010. Simpson is hitting just under 65% of fairways off the tee and ranks 15th in GIR, seventh in strokes gained tee to green and 12th in scrambling. He also ranks 17th in par 3 scoring, 31st in par 4 scoring and 2nd in par 5 scoring. He showed good form here over the years and could be one to watch this week.
Charley Hoffman 33/1
Hoffman was right in the thick of it from the beginning at Augusta last week opening with a superb 67. He continued that good run with a 68 in round 2 and a 71 in round 3. He shot a disappointing final round 74 to finish T9 on -8 for the tournament but put in a great week overall. He has been showing some great form lately finishing T11 at The Shell Houston Open, which included a final round 67 to finish in -10 for the tournament. He also played well the week before in Texas and was right in contention from the beginning shooting an opening round 67 and eventually finished T11.
Hoffman has played well here before recording two top 10 finishes over the last three years finishing T6 in 2013 and T8 in 2012. Hoffman ranks 32nd in driving distance, 47th in GIR, first in scrambling from the fringe and 14th in par 4 scoring. With a good record here and good current form, Charley Hoffman looks to be a good shout at a decent price.
Russell Henley 33/1
Henley started 2015 off with a T3 at The Hyundai Tournament of Champions and followed that with a T17 at The Sony Open in Hawaii. He went slightly off the boil for the next few events but didn’t miss a cut. Most recently, he played well at The Houston Open finishing solo 4th and showed great consistency shooting 69,68,68,69 to finish on -14 for the tournament. He continued that consistency in Augusta last week shooting 68,74,72,71 finishing on -3 for the week and solo 21st.
He is another player that has played well here in the past finishing T6 in 2013, which would have been a lot better if it weren’t for a poor opening round 73. However, he went on to shoot 70,67,69 in the last three rounds to finish -5. Henley is hitting just under 65% of fairways off the tee and ranks 15th in strokes gained putting, seventh in putts inside 10 feet and 31st in par 4 scoring.
Kevin Streelman 50/1
Streelman’s game looked to be in great shape last week in Augusta, where he matched his personal best in a major finishing T12. He also won the Par 3 contest on Wednesday, which must have given him a bit of confidence going into the main event. He showed some good early season form with a solo 2nd at The Shriners Open back in October and followed that with a respectable T26 at The CIMB Classic. He seems to be coming back into some form and has made the last four cuts in a row with top 40’s at The Valspar and Houston.
He has a good record in Harbour Town over the last few years with a T3 in 2013 and a T17 in 2012. Streelman seems to fit the bill statswise ranking 18th in driving accuracy hitting just under 70% of fairways off the tee. He also ranks 17th in GIR and ninth in par 4 scoring and could be a great each way chance.
Final selections –
Zach Johnson 16/1 2 pts EW
Webb Simpson 1.5 pts EW 33/1
Charley Hoffman 1.5 pts EW 33/1
Russell Henley 1 pt EW 33/1
Kevin Streelman 1 pt EW 50/1
Total staked = 14 pts
Good luck and enjoy the golf,
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