Waste Management Phoenix Open Betting Preview 2018

TPC Scottsdale, Arizona  

Par 71, 7,266 Yards  

Well we came close last week with both Rahm and Finau sitting in second and third spot after 36 holes. Rahm had a poor finish but Finau finished T6 getting a full place (PP paying 1-7) for a small profit for the week. Let’s hope we can go one better this week in Scottsdale.     

Waste Management Phoenix Open Betting Preview 2018The Course  

The Waste Management Phoenix Open has long been the best attended event on the schedule and this year should be no different. This year particularly should be special for the hosts as this is the 30-year anniversary of the tournament. TPC Scottsdale underwent some major renovations back in in 2014 with over $12 million dollars spent on upgrading the course.   

Strategic changes have touched all 18 holes with some of the fairways being realigned and bunkers reshaped with a view to making them more punishing. The large Bermuda greens were also resurfaced and tend to be a bit on the quick side. Roughly 100 yards was added to the course but it hasn’t made a huge difference to the scoring. The fairways are quite forgiving but if a tee shot goes a little wayward, it could end up in the desert or a deep bunker.  

The course features three par 5’s that all measure between 550 and 560 yards and should be reachable in two by some of the bigger hitters in the field. The 15th is a reachable par 5 with water coming into play so the second shot will certainly get the players attention. The course also has four par 3’s and 11 par 4’s. The 17th is a driveable par 4 and also has water in play and has been known to trip up the leaders in the final round over the last few years.  

The signature 16th hole is an enclosed arena that holds some 20,000 spectators and tends to offer a football stadium feel to it with a great atmosphere. It is an arena that can erupt at the sight of a good tee shot and give any player who is in the hunt a good ego boost going into the final few holes on Sunday. 

This course doesn’t really favor length or accuracy but judging by previous winners, a hot putter and hitting plenty of greens appear to be the ingredients for success here. With 11 par 4’s in total, it’s also worth looking at par 4 scoring along with good scrambling.  

 

Webb Simpson 35/1 Waste Management Phoenix Open Preview 2018Webb Simpson 35/1  

Webb has been trending nicely in the right direction lately and given his excellent form here in Arizona over the last few years, he is well worth backing this week.   

He started the season with a respectable T17 at the Safeway and followed that with a T20 at the Shriners Open in Vegas which included three rounds of 70 or better. He began the New Year with an impressive T4 at the Sony shooting rounds of 67,70,63,65 to post 15 under par in total. Simpson was particularly impressive over the weekend in Waialae shooting a total of 12 under and putted superbly.  

His record here in Scottsdale is very impressive with form figures 2,14,10,8,8 since 2011.  Simpson has played a total of 20 competitive rounds here and has shot a 70 or better 16 times so this course clearly suits his eye.  

Statswise, Webb is hitting an average of 71% of greens in reg and ranks 38th in SGTTG. He seems to be getting used to the new putting regulations ranking an impressive 18th in strokes gained putting, fourth in scrambling and third in par 4 scoring. All in all, he looks great value at 35/1 here.

 

Daniel Berger 35/1 Waste Management Phoenix Open Betting Preview 2018Daniel Berger 35/1  

Daniel Berger is another player that seems to be trending in the right direction with three top 20’s and a top 25 in his last five starts. He played well at the WGC-HSBC Champions back at the end of October finishing T24. Berger then had another decent week in Bermuda at the Hero World Challenge finishing a respectable T14 which included two 70’s over the weekend.  

The Florida native started the New Year with a four rounds of level par or better in Kapalua finishing T11 at the Sentry Tournament of Champions posting 10 under par in total. He then travelled to Waialae for the Sony Open and shot four rounds of 69 or better to finish T14 for the tournament closing with an impressive final round 64.  

These large Bermuda greens could suit the American as both of his PGA Tour victories to date have come on the Bermuda greens of TPC Southwind in Tennessee, home of the St Jude Classic.  

He has a good record here with two top 10’s in three appearances finishing T7 last year and T10 in 2015. Statswise he is hitting just under 70% of GIR and ranks 19th in SG off the tee. With good current form and a good record here, Berger looks to be a good shout here.   

 

Alex Noren 35/1 Waste Management Phoenix Open Betting Preview 2018Alex Noren 40/1  

The Swede played brilliantly last week in Torrey Pines but just fell at the last hurdle. He got himself into a three-man playoff and ended up losing to Jason Day early on Monday morning in a six-hole playoff. Despite that, Noren played great throughout the week shooting rounds of 70,66,69,73 to post 10 under par in total.  

He has nine European Tour wins to date, one in 2017 in Wentworth and four in 2016. These wins came on various different courses from English parkland (BMW PGA 2017, Bristish Masters 2016) to tricky Scottish links courses (Scottish open 2016, Nordea Masters 2015) to mountainous South African courses (Nedbank Golf Challenge 2016), this guy seems to have the game to contend anywhere.  

He has been in decent form over the last couple of months finishing T31 at the WGC-HSBC Champions and followed that with a T12 at the Nedbank Challenge in South Africa. Noren then teed it up at the Hero World Challenge in Bermuda finishing T12 in early December.  

It’s also worth noting that the Swede has great form on desert style courses over the last few years finishing second in the Dubai Desert Classic in 2015 and T4 at the Qatar Masters in 2013. Noren has proven he can play, contend and win anywhere on any style of golf course. After coming close last week in Torrey, he could go one better in Arizona.  

 

Austin Cook 60/1 Waste Management Phoenix Open Betting Preview 2018Austin Cook 60/1 

I backed Austin Cook a couple of weeks ago at the CareerBuilder in California where he was in great shape after 54 holes holding a one-shot lead, and then went through a bad spell in round four shooting a disappointing, uncharacteristic 74 to finish T14. That being said I am willing to overlook that slight blip and give him another chance here on a course I think could suit.  

He has been playing well so far this season with a win and five top 25’s in his last seven starts. He started with a respectable T25 at the Sanderson Farms Championship back in October followed by a T20 at the Shriners Open in Vegas posting three under for the week.  

Cook then teed it up at the RSM Classic where he didn’t shoot worse than a 67 for the tournament (including a second round 62) to win by four from J.J Spaun on 21 under par. 

He then travelled to Kapalua and finished T22 and followed that with a T18 at the Sony where shot rounds of 67,71,65,66 to post 11 under in total.  

The young American looks like he could have the game to suit this week ranking 27th in GIR, 18TH in scrambling, 45TH in SGP, 14TH in par 3 scoring and 29th in par 4 scoring. With a precise long game, good putting and solid short game Austin Cook looks great value here. 

 

Final selections – 

Webb Simpson 35/1 1pt EW

Dan Berger 35/1 1pt EW

Alex Noren 40/1 0.5pts EW

Austin Cook 60/1 0.5pts EW

Total staked = 6 pts 

(PP and Coral paying 7 places on 1/5)

 

Good luck and enjoy the golf.

Doublebogey6

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CareerBuilder Challenge Betting Preview 2018

CareerBuilder Challenge Betting Preview 2018

The CareerBuilder Challenge is a pro-am format played over three courses with the PGA West Stadium being the host course. The cut will be decided after three rounds with the final round played by professionals only on the Stadium Course.
 
 
The Courses
 
Stadium Course PGA West – Par 72, 7,113 yards. This course is played twice including the final round and has a lot of trees, streams, and lakes that come into play. The fairways are quite forgiving and shouldn’t be too difficult to hit but the tricky Bermuda rough will be lurking to swallow any erratic tee shots. This course is well bunkered with big Bermuda greens which can play very fast depending on weather conditions.
 
Nicklaus Tournament Course – Par 72, 7,204 yards. This course has four par 5’s and four par 3’s and plays as one of the easiest on the PGA Tour with the stroke average just under 69 last year. The fairways are also very forgiving with large greens with water featuring on around seven holes.
 
La Quinta Country Club – Par 72, 7060 yards and has four par fives in total. It also has tree-lined fairways which are a fraction narrower than the other two courses with some water features that come into play. The Bermuda greens tend to be quite tricky and can play quite fast but pin placements tend to be on the generous side to cater for the amateurs so expect plenty of birdies.
 
The average score of the winner of this tournament has been around the 25 under mark. Also, keep in mind that this is a Pro-Am for the first three rounds so pin positions will be in favorable locations to cater for the amateurs. With this, the pro’s will be taking full advantage to be on the lookout for good birdie average stats and good putters.
 
With the pro’s playing about 18 par 5’s this week, players with good par 5 scoring stats tend to go well here. Players that have had a good week at the Sony usually bring that momentum into this week as most of the cobwebs are dusted off. Any players that finished in the top 20 last week and have played well here in the past should be worth considering. It’s a tough one to call so approach with caution.
 
Brian Harman 16/1 CareerBuilder Challenge Betting Preview 2018Brian Harman 16/1 
 
He’s knocking on the door over the last few weeks and looks right on the cusp of bagging his third PGA Tour win any day now. The American had his fifth top 10 finish from five starts last week at the Sony shooting a superb 64,63 in the first two rounds. His game has been consistently solid since the start of the season where he finished T5 at the CJ Cup in late October. Harman followed that with a solo eighth at the WGC-HSBC Champions, T4 at the RSM Classic in Georgia and an impressive solo third at the Sentry Tournament of Champions in Kapalua.
 
Last week, Harman shot a total of 13 under par in the first two rounds at the Sony and followed that with a respectable 69,70 over the weekend to finish T4. He has a great record at this event finishing T11 in 2016 and T3 last year posting 18 under par on both occasions.
 
Statswise Harman ranks 16th in driving accuracy, 12th in SGP, fifth in GIR, ninth in par 4 scoring and 20th in par 5 scoring. With the key statistical boxes ticked, everything points to another good week for the in-form lefty.
 
Jason Dufner 25/1 CareerBuilder Challenge Betting Preview 2018Jason Dufner 25/1
 
Dufner had a good finish to last season with three top 20’s from five starts. He had a good week at the Wyndham finishing T14 and followed that with a T20 at the Northern Trust Open where he shot three rounds in the 60’s finishing with a final round 72. He posted a T20 at the Tour Championship in East Lake where he opened with a 68,67 and fell away a bit over the weekend with rounds of 73,72.
 
Dufner started 2018 off with back to back top 20’s finishing T11 in Kapalua and followed that with four rounds of 69 or better last week at the Sony to finish T18. The American has a great record here with a T18 in 2010, T11 in 2012, a win in 2016 and a T25 last year.
 
The one stat that seems to be standing out over the last two weeks is Dufner’s putting. He ranked fifth in SGP in Kapalua (Bermuda greens) and 18th last week at the Sony (Bermuda greens) which is a big plus coming into this week. He ranks 13th in SGP on the PGA Tour so far this season and has to be respected here.
 
Bud Cauley 35/1 CareerBuilder Challenge Betting Preview 2018Bud Cauley 35/1
 
Bud Cauley had a good start to the season with two top 10’s from four starts. He played well at the Safeway Classic in October shooting three rounds in the 60’s to finish T7 on 10 under for the week. He followed that with a T8 at the RSM Classic in November which included a second round 63 and a final round 66 to finish T8.
 
Cauley has played well at this event over the last couple of years finishing T3 last year shooting four rounds of 69 or better and a T14 in 2016 which included a second round 65 and a third round 66 so he clearly likes this course and can go low here. Statswise he ranks 38th in driving accuracy, 12th in SGTTG, 29th in SG around the green and 11th in SGP. One to keep an eye on here.
 
Austin Cook 60/1 CareerBuilder Challenge Betting Preview 2018Austin Cook 60/1
 
This guy looks very impressive over his short PGA Tour career with a win and four top 25’s in his last six starts. He started with a respectable T25 at the Sanderson Farms Championship back in October followed by a T20 at the Shriners Open in Vegas posting three under for the week. Cook then teed it up at the RSM Classic where he didn’t shoot worse than a 67 for the tournament (including a second round 62) to win by four from J.J Spaun on 21 under par.
 
His win at the RSM Classic got him to Kapalua for the Sentry Tournament of Champions where he shot a pair of 70’s over the weekend to finish T22. Last week at the Sony, Cook shot rounds of 67,71,65,66 to post 11 under in total and T18 for the tournament and looks to be showing some good consistency. The young American looks like he could have the game to suit this week hitting just over 70% of greens in reg, 36th in scrambling, 37th in SGP and 38th in par 5 scoring. With a precise long game, good putting and solid short game Austin Cook looks great value here.

 

Top 20 Double – Chez Reavie/Tyrell Hatton @5.6/1

Englishman Tyrell Hatton arrives in Abu Dhabi this week in great form after winning three from three in his matches last week for Europe in the Eurasia Cup. Hatton has been in great from over the last few months winning back to back at the Alfred Dunhill Links in October followed by another victory a week later in Italy.

He finished the European Tour season with four top 20’s finishing T11 at the WGC-HSBC Champions, T16 at the Turkish Airlines Open, T19 at the Nedbank and a T8 at the DP World in Dubai. Hatton has a great record here finishing 13-46-10-6 in his last four appearances and looks in great form coming into this week.

American Chez Reavie is also in fine fettle coming to California with five top 20’s in his last six starts. He started the season with a T13 at the Safeway Classic and followed that with a T17 at the CIMB Classic, T15 at the CJ Cup, T14 at OHL Classic and a T18 last week at the Sony.

Reavie has played well at this event before finishing T17 in 2016 and T12 last year. He is playing consistently well recently and that should continue here this week.

 

Final selections – 

Brian Harman 16/1 1pt EW

Jason Dufner 25/1 0.5pts EW

Bud Cauley 35/1 0.5pts EW

Austin Cook 60/1 0.5pts EW

Top 20 double 1pt 

Total staked = 6pts 

 

Paddypower paying 7 places. 

 

Good Luck and enjoy the golf.

Doublebogey6

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