Arnold Palmer Invitational Betting Preview 2016

Arnold Palmr Invitational Betting Preview 2016

Bay Hill Club & Lodge, Orlando, Florida

Par 72, 7,419 yards

The Course

The next stop on the PGA Tour is The Arnold Palmer Invitational in Bay Hill. Tiger Woods has won this event an impressive eight times, but won’t be playing this week. This course is a par 72 and is a lengthy 7,419 yards. The course was designed by Dick Wilson in 1961, and illustrates his typical approach of slightly elevating the putting surfaces to improve visibility and drainage. The course covers 270 acres and lies between the community of Bay Hill, Florida and the Butler Chain of Lakes. Owned by Arnold Palmer since 1974, it has hosted the annual Arnold Palmer Invitational since 1979.

This course is a typical Florida setup with plenty of water and greenside bunkers coming into play. The course layout was changed in 2010 from a par 70 to a par 72 and has a total of four par 5’s, four par 3’s and 10 par 4’s. The reason for this was to allow the players to give themselves more opportunities to make birdies. The course is situated along the Butler Chain of Lakes and has a tendency to get windy. The fairways are quite forgiving here so driving accuracy isn’t too much of an issue. Like a lot of the Florida courses we have seen over the last few weeks, water hazards come into play on roughly 9 of the 18 holes.

There are four par 3’s which are amongst the most difficult on the PGA Tour so par 3 scoring will be an important here. Good par 5 scoring stats will certainly be a big plus along with good ball striking, scrambling, putting and GIR. Good current form and good form around Bay Hill are also a big plus this week.

 

Adam Scott 8/1 Arnold Palmer Invitational Betting Preview 2016

Adam Scott 8/1

The big question on everyone’s lips this week is can Adam Scott do the hat trick and make it three in a row? In my opinion, yes. With two wins and a second in his last three events the Aussie is in absolutely flying form and is without a doubt the favourite here this week.

He played brilliantly in Riviera and just came up short despite chipping in on the 18th for a birdie to finish T2. He followed that with a win at The Honda shooting 70,65,66,70 to finish nine under for the tournament. He then had another great week at The WGC Cadillac in Doral recording his second win in two weeks finishing one clear after a miraculous up and down on the 18th. He has played well at Bay Hill in the past finishing T3 in 2014 which included an opening round course record 62.

Scott looks like he could suit this course ranking ninth in driving distance, sixth in GIR and first in SGTTG. He also ranks ninth in par 3 scoring and first in par 5 scoring which are two stats that will stand to him here at Bay Hill this week.

 

Henrik Stenson 12//1 Arnold Palmer Invitational Betting Preview 2016

Henrik Stenson 12/1

The Swede had a good performance at The Valspar last week shooting 71,70,70,72 on his way to a respectable T11 finish. He also had a good week in Doral finishing in a respectable T28, which would have been a lot better if it weren’t for a third round 76. Stenson started the year off with two top 6’s in the Desert Swing finishing T3 in Abu Dhabi and T6 the following week in Dubai.

He has a superb record around Bay Hill finishing second last year, fifth in 2014, T8 in 2013 and T15 in 2012. Stenson ticks a lot of boxes statswise here ranking fourth in stroke average, 22nd in driving accuracy, 13th in GIR and third in strokes gained putting. With some decent performances over the last few weeks and a great record here, Henrik Stenson could right the wrongs of last year and get the job done this week.

 

Ryan Moore 33/1 Arnold Palmer Invitational Betting Preview 2016

Ryan Moore 33/1

After another solid performance at The Valspar last week, I’ve decided to give Ryan Moore another go here in Bay Hill. He added another top 10 finish to the list last week finishing solo third at Copperhead making that five top 11’s in seven starts. He started the season with a T10 at The Frys, T10 at The CIMB Classic, T11 in Phoenix and a solo 10th in Riviera at The Northern Trust Open which included a superb ace on the 16th in the final round.

Moore has played well here in the past finishing fourth here in 2012 and 12th in 2011. Statswise he ranks 30th in driving distance, 18th in SGTTG, second in par 3 scoring and ninth in par 4 scoring. If he putts well here this week he could be right in the mix.

 

Brandt Snedeker 40/1 Arnold Palmer Invitational Betting Preview 2016

Brandt Snedeker 40/1

It seems Sneds has recovered from sore ribs after withdrawing from the WGC Cadillac in Doral a couple of weeks and could come back with a bang here at Bay Hill. He has had a superb season so far which began with a T17 at The Frys and a win at The Franklin Templeton with partner Jason Dufner.

He started 2016 off with a T3 at The Hyundai Tournament of Champions, lost out in a playoff at The Sony in Hawaii and had a superb win in Torrey Pines which included a superb final round 69 in almost unplayable conditions. He’s gone a bit quiet lately finishing T33 in Phoenix and T35 in Pebble but can come back to good form on a course he has played well on in the past.

He finished 13th here last year and eighth in 2014 and ticks a lot of boxes statistically. He is averaging just over 295 off the tee and ranks sixth in SGP. He also ranks 12th in par 3 scoring and ninth in par 4 scoring. If he’s fit and healthy he should be right in the mix.

 

Jason Kokrak 60/1 Arnold Palmer Invitational Betting Preview 2016

Jason Kokrak 60/1

Kokrak came close to victory in Riviera and played solidly all week. He began with a 68 in round one and followed that with a 64,70,68 to finish 14 under just falling one short of winner Bubba Watson. He has had a mixed bag of form this season finishing T12 at The Sanderson Farms and followed that with a T17 at The OHL Classic. He started 2016 with a respectable T25 at The Farmers in Torrey pines and had another decent week in Pebble with a T30 finish.

He’s gone a bit cold over the last couple of weeks but has a great record here finishing sixth here last year and fourth in 2014. Kokrak is a huge hitter averaging 310 off the tee ranking seventh in driving distance. With four par 5’s and a good record over the last two years, Kokrak can go well here at a big price.

 

Final Selections –

Adam Scott 8/1 2pts EW

Henrik Stenson 12/1 2pts EW

Ryan Moore 33/1 1pt EW

Brandt Snedeker 40/1 1pt EW

Jaosn Kokrak 60/1 1pt EW

Total Staked = 14 pts

 

Paddypower paying 7 places this week. 

 

Good luck and enjoy the golf,

 

Doublebogey6

 

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Arnold Palmer Invitational Betting Preview 2015

Arnold Palmer Invitational Betting Tips 2015

Bay Hill Club & Lodge, Orlando, Florida

Par 72, 7,419 yards

Last Week –

We had another winner last week on Jordan Spieth, who came in at 14/1 at The Valspar Championship beating Patrick Reed and Sean O’Hair in a dramatic sudden death playoff. Spieth shot a final round 69 and got a super 10 foot putt on the 18th to join the playoff. He then went on to halve the first two playoff holes, where Patrick Reed’s short game was absolutely superb getting up and down out of thick rough and tricky bunkers. Spieth then holed a huge 30 footer on the third playoff hole, which was the par 3 17th to get the win. That makes it our second winner in two weeks and our fifth winner of 2015. Let’s keep it going!

The Course

The next stop on the PGA Tour is The Arnold Palmer Invitational in Bay Hill. Tiger Woods has won this event an impressive eight times, but won’t be playing this week. This course is a par 72 and is a lengthy 7,419 yards. The course was designed by Dick Wilson in 1961, and illustrates his typical approach of slightly elevating the putting surfaces to improve visibility and drainage. The course covers 270 acres and lies between the community of Bay Hill, Florida and the Butler Chain of Lakes. Owned by Arnold Palmer since 1974, it has hosted the annual Arnold Palmer Invitational since 1979.

This course is a typical Florida setup with plenty of water and greenside bunkers coming into play. The course layout was changed in 2010 from a par 70 to a par 72 and has a total of four par 5’s, four par 3’s and 10 par 4’s. The reason for this was to allow the players to give themselves more opportunities to make birdies. The course is situated along the Butler Chain of Lakes and has a tendency to get windy. The fairways are quite forgiving here so driving accuracy isn’t too much of an issue. Like a lot of the Florida courses we have seen over the last few weeks, water hazards come into play on seven of the 18 holes.

There are four par 3’s, which are amongst the most difficult on the PGA Tour so par 3 scoring will be an important stat. Good par 5 performance stats will certainly be a big plus here with good ball striking, scrambling, putting and GIR also worth considering. Course history will also be important along with good previous form at Bay Hill.

 

Henrik Stenson Arnold Palmer Invitational 12/1

Henrik Stenson 12/1

Stenson started 2015 with a T13 at The Qatar Masters in January and followed that with another T13 at The Dubai Desert Classic. He is on a great run of form at present with a T4 at The WGC Cadillac in Doral and a solo 4th last week at The Valspar Championship, which included a super final round 67. He was playing great from the start of the tournament last week and looked to be hitting the ball really well throughout the tournament, especially with his very accurate iron play.

He has played well in Bay Hill over the last three years finishing T5 last year, T8 in 2013 and T15 in 2012. Stenson is one of the most consistent players on The European Tour ranking 24th in driving distance averaging 303 off the tee. He also ranks 3rd in GIR hitting 83% of greens so far this season. After two super performances over the last couple of weeks, Stenson comes back to Bay Hill in great form and could be a serious contender given his previous record here.

 

Keegan Bradley Arnold Palmer Invitational 35/1

Keegan Bradley 35/1

After a taking last week off, Keegan Bradley comes to Bay Hill well rested. He has been showing decent form over the last couple of months and had a good week at The Hero World Challenge finishing T3 and followed that with another T3 at The Franklin Templeton Shootout just before Christmas. He has been a bit up and down since with a T48 at The Humana and a T17 at The Phoenix Open. He finished T38 at The WGC Cadillac but had a great performance at The Northern Trust Open a couple of weeks before finishing T4 on five under for the tournament.

Bradley is another player that seems to suit this course with two top 5’s in his last two appearances finishing solo 2nd last year and T3 in 2013. He averages 302 yards off the tee ranking 15th in driving distance. He also ranks 12th in strokes gained tee to green, third in approaches from 250-275 and seventh in approaches from 200-225, which are two good stats for approaches into the four par 5’s.

 

Kevin Na 40/1 Arnold Palmer Invitational

Kevin Na 40/1

After a super final round 66 last week at The Valspar Championship, Kevin Na comes to Bay Hill showing some great form over the last couple of weeks. He was showing snippets of form since the beginning of the season back in October, with a T2 at The CIMB Classic and a T20 at The WGC HSBC Champions. Na also had a good week at The Phoenix Open finishing in a respectable T26 on six under par for the tournament. Most recently, he has posted two top 10’s in his last two tournaments finishing T9 in Doral and T10 last week.

He has played well here in the past finishing T14 last year, T4 in 2012, T30 in 2011 and T2 in 2010. He ranks 23rd in scrambling, 38th in par 3 scoring, 40th in par 4 scoring and 18th in par 3 birdie or better leaders. With a good current form and a good history at Bay Hill, Kevin Na could feature at a good price.

 

JB Holmes 45/1 Arnold Palmer Invitational

J.B. Holmes 45/1

J.B. Holmes is a player that should suit this course and has the power to make a lot of birdies. He is on a great run of form over the last few weeks with three top 10’s in his last four events. He came close to winning at The Farmers Insurance Open in Torrey Pines but lost on the third playoff hole to Jason Day. He had another good performance at Pebble Beach finishing T10 on 15 under for the tournament, which included an opening round 64. Most recently, Holmes played well at The Northern Trust Open finishing in a respectable T22nd and went close to winning yet again at The WGC Cadillac in Doral finishing solo 2nd, which included a superb first round 62.

J.B. has played well here in the past finishing T10 last year, T29 in 2012 and T21 in 2010. He is averaging 304 off the tee ranking 11th in driving distance. He also ranks fifth in strokes gained tee to green, sixth in birdie average, 38th in both par 3 and par 5 scoring and 11th in par 4 birdie or better leaders. Holmes has been knocking on the door of a win for the last few weeks and has the power and form to be a big danger man here this week.

J.B Holmes  45/1 – First Round Leader

In his last three starts at this event, J.B. has started with no worse than a 71. He started with a 68 last year, 71 in 2012 and a 66 in 2010. In his last five starts on the PGA Tour, Holmes has started with no worse than a 70 in round 1. He shot a record 62 in Doral, 70 at The Northern Trust Open, 64 in Pebble Beach, 69 at Torrey Pines and a 68 at The Phoenix Open. With a an early tee time of 08.47am and a good record at this event, Holmes could go very low here in round 1.

 

Final selections –

Henrik Stenson 2 pts EW

Keegan Bradley 1 pt EW

Kevin Na 1 pt EW

J.B. Holmes 1 pt EW

J.B. Holmes 1 pt EW – First Round Leader

Total staked = 12 pts

 

Good luck and enjoy the golf,

 

Doublebogey6

 

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