Field: Top 100 in FedExCup Standings
TPC Boston, Norton, MA
Par 71, 7,242 yards
This week the FedExCup Playoffs travels to TPC Boston where it has hosted this event since 2003. It is a par 71 layout with three par 5’s, four par 3’s and 11 par 4’s and has a tendency to give up very low scores. Chris Kirk was the winner last year finishing on 15 under par and Henrik Stenson won here in 2013 finishing on 22 under par.
Other previous winners include Rory McIlroy (2012), Webb Simpson (2011), Charley Hoffman (2010), Steve Stricker (2009) and Vijay Singh (2008). When you see the list of previous winners, it certainly indicates that the cream certainly rises to the top.
This course has 11 par 4’s, four par 3’s and three par 5’s. The greens are wide and forgiving and should suit the big hitters. They also offer players the opportunity to be aggressive so be on the lookout for guys with good GIR, strokes gained tee to green and strokes gained putting stats. With 11 par 4’s, par 4 scoring is another stat worth checking. There will also be a particular emphasis on birdie average as this event has been a bit of a birdie fest over the years.
The fairways here are quite wide and forgiving so driving accuracy will not be as important as driving distance. The par 5 second and 18th will be reachable in two for most of the field so there will be a particular emphasis on ball striking and distance.
Jason Day 6/1
It’s hard to leave out Day after yet another superb performance last week and playing with such dominance over the last few weeks. After last week’s win at The Barclays that makes it four wins for Jason Day this season. He won the Farmers Insurance Open back in February beating J.B. Holmes in a playoff and followed that with a superb win at The RBC Canadian Open, a win at The PGA in Whistling Straits and a win last week in Plainfield which makes that three wins in his last four starts.
Day has played well here in the past finishing T7 last year, T13 in 2013, third in 2011 and second in 2010. He ranks third in driving distance, ninth in GIR, eighth in strokes gained tee to green and second in strokes gained putting. He also ranks first in par 3 scoring and second in par 4 scoring. With absolutely superb current form and good course form here at TPC Boston over the years, Jason Day is without a doubt the man to beat here this week.
Henrik Stenson 14/1
The Swede cones here after a great performance last week at The Barclays finishing solo second on 13 under for the tournament. He seems to be coming into some form just at the right time with a solo second last week, T25 at The PGA and a T6 at The WGC Bridgestone in his last three tournaments. Stenson has played well at this event in the past finishing T26 last year and a win here in 2013.
He also ticks a lot of statistical boxes averaging just under 300 yards off the tee and ranks 14th in driving accuracy. He ranks first in GIR, second in strokes gained tee to green and 22nd in strokes gained putting. He also ranks sixth in par 4 scoring and looks to be hitting form at just the right time. With a good history here and good current form, Stenson could have another good week here.
Bubba Watson 22/1
Bubba is playing great golf at present and has a win and three top 3’s in his last seven events. He won the Travelers Championship beating Paul Casey in a playoff an followed that with a T13 at The Greenbrier, solo second at The RBC Canadian Open, solo second at The WGC Bridgestone, T21 at The PGA and a solo third last week at The Barclays. He has played well here at TPC Boston over the years with his best finishes coming in 2011 finishing T16 and T12 in 2006.
Watson should suit this course with his length and ranks second in driving distance averaging just over 316 yards off the tee, perfect for these wide fairways. He also ranks 23rd in GIR, first in strokes gained tee to green and fifth in birdie average. He ranks ninth in par 3 scoring, eighth in par 4 scoring and first in par 5 scoring. Bubba is in fine form at the moment and that could continue here at TPC Boston.
Brooks Koepka 40/1
I wouldn’t be too concerned about Brooks missing the cut last week at The Barclays, in fact I think it could do him some good coming into this week after a bit of a rest last weekend. He is another player in fine form with five top 10’s and two top 20’s in his last seven starts. His good run of form started back at The Fedex St Jude where he finished T3 and followed that with a T18 in Chambers Bay, T10 at The Open Championship and a T18 at The RBC Canadian Open. He then had three top sixes in a row finishing T6 at The WGC Bridgestone, T5 at The PGA and T6 at The Wyndham.
I reckon Brooks should suit this course averaging 309 off the tee ranking seventh in driving distance, 11th in GIR, 22nd in strokes gained tee to green and 11th in strokes gained putting. He also ranks 17th in birdie average, sixth in par 4 scoring and fourth in par 5 scoring. Koepka should be well rested after a weekend off last week and should go well on a course that could suit his game.
Tony Finau 70/1
The big hitting Tony Finau should be another player that could suit TPC Boston and comes here with ten top 25’s in his last 12 starts. He looks to be showing some great consistency over the few months and was right in the mix at The Barclays after the first two rounds. Finau’s good run of form began back at The Wellls Fargo where he finished T16. He followed that with a T19 in Colonial, T10 at The Byron Nelson, T8 at Memorial, T14 in Chambers Bay and T13 at The Greenbrier. Most recently, Finau finished T22 at The RBC Canadian Open, T10 at The PGA and T16 last week at The Barclays, which he lead after 54 holes.
He averages 309 off the tee ranking eighth in driving distance, 29th in strokes gained tee to green and seventh in birdie average. He also ranks 20th in par 4 scoring and 34th in par 5 scoring and looks to be in fine form coming to a course that could suit his game.
Final Selections –
Jason Day 3pts EW 6/1
Henrik Stenson 2pts EW 14/1
Bubba Watson 2pts EW 22/1
Brooks Koepka 1pt EW 40/1
Tony Finau 1pt EW 70/1
Total Staked = 18 pts
That’s all from me this season folks, I’m away on holidays for the next couple of weeks and will not be covering the last two FedexCup events. Ill be back for the first PGA Tour event of the new season in October.
Many thanks for reading my posts and best of luck for the last two events, lets finish on a high note this week!
Chat to you in October,