TPC Louisiana, Avondale, LA
Par 72, 7,425 yards
The PGA Tour travels to TPC Louisiana this week, where Seung-yul Noh is the defending champion. TPC Louisiana has hosted this tournament since 2007, with this year being the ninth year in a row. It was also host in 2005, but got badly damaged in hurricane Katrina. This resulted in some changes being made to the course making it fractionally shorter than it used to be.
The course is a Pete Dye design par 72 measuring just over 7,400 yards. It features four par 5’s, four par 3’s and 10 par 4’s. The course sits along the Mississippi River and has five ponds and over 100 bunkers, which will all come into play. Unlike last week at The RBC Heritage, the greens here are quite big and can get fast depending on the weather conditions. The fairways are wide and pretty forgiving so accuracy off the tee is not essential, but hitting the greens in regulation will be important. The greens have a lot of undulations so landing the ball in the right part of the green will be important. This is a course that is ranked one of the easiest on The PGA Tour with the average score of the winner shooting between 15-20 under par on average over the last five years.
All types of players seem to play well at this venue. It’s worth looking at players with good GIR stats, approach stats, strokes gained putting and strokes gained tee to green. Par 4, par 3 and par 5 scoring are also worth looking at. Traditionally, there are a lot of birdies on offer at this tournament so birdie average could be another metric worth taking a look at.
Dustin Johnson 8/1
With five top 6 finishes in his last six starts including a win, Dustin Johnson looks to be in great form lately and is contending in almost every tournament he plays in. He had a great performance at The Masters firing 70,67,73,69 on his way to a T6 finish on nine under par for the tournament. He then had another T6 in Texas, which would’ve been a lot better if it weren’t for a poor opening round 78. He had his first victory of 2015 at The WGC Cadillac in Doral, where he shot a superb final round 69 to clinch victory from J.B. Holmes and Bubba Watson. Johnson also came close to winning The Northern Trust Open, but was beaten by James Hahn in a playoff.
He also looks to fit the bill here statswise ranking first in strokes gained tee to green, first in driving distance, fourth in birdie average and second in approaches from 200+, which is a good stat for the par 5’s. He also ranks 28th in par 3 scoring and third in par 5 scoring. Johnson has the form and game to be a huge contender here this week.
Justin Rose 10/1
Justin Rose played superb at The Masters a couple of weeks ago and looked a serious contender throughout the whole week. He started with a 67 in round one and followed that with 70,67,70 to finish T2 and 14 under par for the tournament. His form has been mixed over the last few weeks with a T37 in Houston and missed cuts at The Valspar and The Honda Classic. He played well in the early part of the year in the Middle East recording two top 15 finishes. He had a good week in Abu Dhabi finishing T12 and followed that with a T13 at The Qatar Masters.
Rose has played well here in the past with three top 15’s in his last three appearances. He finished T8 last year, T15 in 2013 and T10 in 2012. Statswise Rose ranks 38th in GIR, 35th in birdie average, first in approaches from 75-100 and fifth in approaches from 200 yards. He also ranks 37th in par 5 scoring and 37th in par 3 birdie or better leaders. His game looked in superb shape at The Masters a couple of weeks ago and could be a big contender here given his previous record.
Sean O’Hair 45/1
It’s been great to see Sean O’Hair back playing some great golf this season after having a tough couple of years on tour. He has had four top 30’s and two top 10’s so far this season and his game looks in great shape. Most recently, he played well last week at The RBC Heritage last week shooting a superb final round 64 to finish solo sixth. He had another great week at The Valspar shooting a final round 67 to get himself into a playoff with Jordan Speith and Patrick Reed. However, he was eventually beaten by Jordan Speith but he putted very well all week, which will be a big plus here at TPC Louisiana.
O’Hair ranks 34th in strokes gained putting, 33rd in birdie average, 28th in approaches from 225-250 and 13th in approaches from 75-100. He also ranks fifth in three putt avoidance, 13th in par 4 scoring and sixth in par 4 birdie or better leaders. O’Hair has been knocking on the door of a win lately and it could very well come this week in New Orleans.
Morgan Hoffmann 50/1
Morgan Hoffmann has been showing some good form lately with two top 10’s in his last three starts. He played well last week at The RBC Heritage and showed some great consistency shooting 68,68,69,68 finishing T9 on 11 under for the tournament. He also played well at The Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill finishing solo 4th on 15 under. Hoffmann had another good performance at The WGC Cadillac in Doral posting a respectable T17 finish.
He has played well here at TPC Louisiana in the past finishing T34 last year and T21 in 2013. He ranks 31st in driving distance, 32nd in strokes gained putting and 12th in approaches from 250-275. He also ranks second in three putt avoidance and 29th in par 5 scoring and comes here in much better form this year than he has in previous years.
Cameron Tringale 50/1
Despite missing the cut last week at The RBC Heritage, Cameron Tringale has been in good form over the last few weeks with a top five and a top 20 in his last five starts. He played well at The Valspar Championship a few weeks back finishing T17 on three under par for the tournament. He started very well shooting a 71, 69 in the first two rounds. He fell away a little bit after shooting a disappointing 73 in round 3, but fought back well firing a final round 68. Tringale also played well in Houston shooting 68,70,69,68 on his way to a 13 under par total and a T5 finish.
Tringale has played well here over the last few years finishing T17 last year, T7 in 2012, T18 in 2011 and T28 in 2010. Statswise, he is hitting just over 65% of fairways off the tee and ranks 25th in approaches from 250-275 and 13th in approaches from 50-125 yards, which are two good stats for approaches into the par 5’s and par 4’s. With a good history here and good current form, this could be the place where Tringale has a great week at a decent price.
Final Selections –
Dustin Johnson 2pts EW 8/1
Justin Rose 2pts EW 10/1
Sean O’Hair 1pt EW 45/1
Morgan Hoffmann 1pt EW 50/1
Cameron Tringale 1pt EW 50/1
Total staked = 14 pts
Good luck and enjoy the golf,
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