WGC Dell Matchplay Betting Preview 2016

WGC Dell Matchplay Betting Preview 2016

Austin Country Club, Texas

Par 71, 7,043 Yards

The Course

Austin Country Club is located on a challenging Pete Dye-designed par 71 built in 1984 which overlooks Lake Austin. It has three par 5’s, four par 3’s and 11 par 4’s. The course has a lot of new features after being renovated last year. It now has deep pot bunkers, undulating turf and dramatic fairway falls and tree lined fairways. The front nine is on higher ground and has some elevated and hilly fairways with some of the tee shots being played over canyons and creeks.

The back nine is on flatter ground and runs along the picturesque Lake Austin. Some tee shots and approach shots will have to be played over the lake which should offer some excitement. There will be a bit of emphasis on accuracy here as there are a lot of pot bunkers scattered on the fairways and some are quite deep and penalizing. The greens are Bermuda and look to be fractionally bigger than usual. The main areas of focus here are driving accuracy, GIR, good matchplay experience and decent current form.

 

Format: (Taken from PGATOUR.com)

The 64-player Dell Match Play field will be divided into 16 four-player groups. Each group will play round-robin matches within their group on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday (March 23, 24 and 25). The player with the best record in each of the four player groups advances to the Round of 16 for single-elimination match play (in the event of a two-way tie in a group, head-to-head match results will be used as the tiebreaker; a three-way tie will require a sudden-death stroke play hole by hole playoff).

Group Play (Round Robin) Matches: 18 hole matches played to either a conclusion or a halve (matches will not be extended beyond 18 holes).

  • Wednesday, Round 1 – 32 matches (64 players)
  • Thursday, Round 2 – 32 matches (64 players)
  • Friday, Round 3 – 32 matches (64 players)

Players in the field are assigned a seed number for the competition determined by their position on the Official World Rankings, as of Monday the week of the tournament (March 21, 2016 – after the Arnold Palmer Invitational).  The highest ranked player in the field Seed #1, and the lowest ranked player in the field Seed #64.

Players are then placed into four pools of 16 players:

  • 1-16/Pool A
  • 17-32/Pool B
  • 33-48/Pool C
  • 49-64/Pool D

The top 16 players will be the top player in each of the 16 groups. So the No. 1 seed is the top player in Group 1, No. 2 seed is the top player in Group 2 and so on.

The remaining players in each group will be picked randomly live on the Golf Channel as part of the Dell Match Play Draw show on Monday, March 21, at the Paramount Theatre in downtown Austin (more info below).

Rounds 1, 2 and 3 (Group Play): Players play 18 hole matches against each of the other players in their group.  Matches played to either a conclusion or a halve.  Matches all square after 18 holes are not extended.  Points awarded to players based on results of each match as follows:  Winner 1 point, Loser 0 point, Halved each player ½ point.

The player in each group with the highest point total at the end of group play advances to the 16-player, single-elimination matches.  In the event two or more players in a group are equal with the highest point totals, a stroke play hole-by-hole playoff will determine the player that advances to the 16 player, single-elimination matches.

Group play hole-by-hole playoffs will be conducted after the matches in a group are complete and after all of the group play matches have started their third round match.  Group play hole-by-hole playoffs will start on the first hole and play holes 1 through 18 in sequence repeated if necessary, until the player is determined who will advance to the elimination play matches.

*Single-elimination matches – 18 hole matches played to a conclusion.  No halved matches.  Matches all square after 18 holes will be extended until a winner is determined.

Round 4 (Saturday morning): Eight matches (16 players) – winners advance to round 5/quarter-final matches.  Matches all square after 18 holes in round 4 extended on holes 10 through 18 and repeated if necessary.

Round 5 (Saturday afternoon): Four quarter-final matches (eight players) – winners advance to round 6 (semi-final) matches.  Matches all square after 18 holes in rounds 5 are extended on holes 12 through 18 and repeated if necessary.

Round 6 (Sunday morning): Two semi-final matches (four players) – winners advance to the championship match, losers advance to match for third place.  Matches all square after 18 holes in rounds 6 are extended on holes 12 through 18 and repeated if necessary.

Round 7 (Sunday afternoon): Match for third place (two players) and championship match (two players).  Matches all square after 18 holes in rounds 7 are extended on holes 12 through 18 and repeated if necessary.

 

Selections –

Jordan Spieth 12/1 WGC Dell Matchplay 2016

Jordan Spieth 12/1 

The young Texan is playing on home turf and will have a lot of support here this week. He comes into this after taking last week off and should be fresh and ready to contend. Although he has gone off the boil a bit over his last few events, Spieth has played well this season with a T7 at the WGC HSBC Champions, solo fourth at The Hero World Challenge and a win at The Hyundai Tournament of Champions. He has had a couple of uncharacteristic performances recently finishing T17 at The Valspar and T18 at The WGC Cadillac but could bounce back strong this week.

He has a decent matchplay record over the last few years and also has a great record in Texas finishing solo second in The Texas Open last year, solo 10th in 2014 and a P2 in Houston last year. Spieth looks to have the game to suit this course ranking 13th in SGTTG, 22nd in SGP and first in par 4 scoring. After taking some time off and playing in front of a home crowd, Jordan could be the man to beat here on home turf.

 

Paul Casey 30/1 WGC Dell Matchplay 2016

Paul Casey 30/1 

Casey has been back showing some good form over the last few weeks and comes here on the back of a T9 finish in Bay Hill last week. His Iron play in particular was superb and if the putter heated up a little bit he wouldn’t have been far away. He also had a good week in Doral finishing solo seventh at The WGC Cadillac which included two 68’s in round two and four. Casey ticks alot of boxes here statswise ranking ninth in GIR, 19th in SGTTG and 21st in par 4 scoring.

Casey played superb here last year and finished fifth after losing to Rory McIlroy on the 22nd hole. He has a great matchplay record and was a finalist in this event in 2009 and 2010. He also a former winner of The Volvo World Matchplay so he’s no stranger to this kind of format and is peaking in form at just the right time.

 

Danny Willett 35/1 WGC Dell Matchplay 2016

Danny Willett 35/1

Danny has been playing well over the last few months and had a great finish to the year with a T4 at The DP World Tour Championship followed by another T4 at The Nedbank. He began 2016 with a T54 in Abu Dhabi but bounced back with a win in Dubai at the start of February which included a 65,65,69 finish to post 19 under in total. He then had another superb performance at The WGC Cadillac to finish T3. He put himself in a great position to win but pulled his tee shot fractionally left on 18 into the water and got a bit unlucky.

He played superb here last year finishing third and only lost one match out of the six. The Englishman could suit this course and ranks 35th in GIR and 15th in strokes gained putting on the European Tour this season. With a solid performance here last year and great current form Danny looks great value here.

 

Marc Leishman 50/1 WGC Dell Matchplay 2016

Marc Leishman 50/1 

The Aussie played well last week in Bay Hill and only for a third round 74, he would have finished a hell of a lot better than T17. He has been showing glimpses of good form lately finishing T28 at The WGC Cadillac and T5 at The Northern Trust Open in Riviera shooting four steady rounds in the 60’s. Leishman has played well in this neck of the woods in the past finishing T3 in TPC Four Seasons at The Byron Nelson in 2014, T12 in 2013 and T3 in 2012.

He also played well here at The Matchplay in the past finishing ninth last year playing five matches and losing two and played well in The Presidents Cup winning two from two for the International Team. He ranks 15th in SGTTG, ninth in scrambling and third in par 4 scoring. With decent form lately and good matchplay form, Leishman looks good value here.

 

Final Selections – 

Jordan Spieth 12/1 2pts EW

Paul Casey 30/1 1.5pts EW

Danny Willett 35/1 1.5pts EW

Marc Leishman 50/1 1pt EW

 

Total staked = 12 pts 

 

Good luck and enjoy the golf,

Doublebogey6 

 

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Arnold Palmer Invitational Betting Preview 2016

Arnold Palmr Invitational Betting Preview 2016

Bay Hill Club & Lodge, Orlando, Florida

Par 72, 7,419 yards

The Course

The next stop on the PGA Tour is The Arnold Palmer Invitational in Bay Hill. Tiger Woods has won this event an impressive eight times, but won’t be playing this week. This course is a par 72 and is a lengthy 7,419 yards. The course was designed by Dick Wilson in 1961, and illustrates his typical approach of slightly elevating the putting surfaces to improve visibility and drainage. The course covers 270 acres and lies between the community of Bay Hill, Florida and the Butler Chain of Lakes. Owned by Arnold Palmer since 1974, it has hosted the annual Arnold Palmer Invitational since 1979.

This course is a typical Florida setup with plenty of water and greenside bunkers coming into play. The course layout was changed in 2010 from a par 70 to a par 72 and has a total of four par 5’s, four par 3’s and 10 par 4’s. The reason for this was to allow the players to give themselves more opportunities to make birdies. The course is situated along the Butler Chain of Lakes and has a tendency to get windy. The fairways are quite forgiving here so driving accuracy isn’t too much of an issue. Like a lot of the Florida courses we have seen over the last few weeks, water hazards come into play on roughly 9 of the 18 holes.

There are four par 3’s which are amongst the most difficult on the PGA Tour so par 3 scoring will be an important here. Good par 5 scoring stats will certainly be a big plus along with good ball striking, scrambling, putting and GIR. Good current form and good form around Bay Hill are also a big plus this week.

 

Adam Scott 8/1 Arnold Palmer Invitational Betting Preview 2016

Adam Scott 8/1

The big question on everyone’s lips this week is can Adam Scott do the hat trick and make it three in a row? In my opinion, yes. With two wins and a second in his last three events the Aussie is in absolutely flying form and is without a doubt the favourite here this week.

He played brilliantly in Riviera and just came up short despite chipping in on the 18th for a birdie to finish T2. He followed that with a win at The Honda shooting 70,65,66,70 to finish nine under for the tournament. He then had another great week at The WGC Cadillac in Doral recording his second win in two weeks finishing one clear after a miraculous up and down on the 18th. He has played well at Bay Hill in the past finishing T3 in 2014 which included an opening round course record 62.

Scott looks like he could suit this course ranking ninth in driving distance, sixth in GIR and first in SGTTG. He also ranks ninth in par 3 scoring and first in par 5 scoring which are two stats that will stand to him here at Bay Hill this week.

 

Henrik Stenson 12//1 Arnold Palmer Invitational Betting Preview 2016

Henrik Stenson 12/1

The Swede had a good performance at The Valspar last week shooting 71,70,70,72 on his way to a respectable T11 finish. He also had a good week in Doral finishing in a respectable T28, which would have been a lot better if it weren’t for a third round 76. Stenson started the year off with two top 6’s in the Desert Swing finishing T3 in Abu Dhabi and T6 the following week in Dubai.

He has a superb record around Bay Hill finishing second last year, fifth in 2014, T8 in 2013 and T15 in 2012. Stenson ticks a lot of boxes statswise here ranking fourth in stroke average, 22nd in driving accuracy, 13th in GIR and third in strokes gained putting. With some decent performances over the last few weeks and a great record here, Henrik Stenson could right the wrongs of last year and get the job done this week.

 

Ryan Moore 33/1 Arnold Palmer Invitational Betting Preview 2016

Ryan Moore 33/1

After another solid performance at The Valspar last week, I’ve decided to give Ryan Moore another go here in Bay Hill. He added another top 10 finish to the list last week finishing solo third at Copperhead making that five top 11’s in seven starts. He started the season with a T10 at The Frys, T10 at The CIMB Classic, T11 in Phoenix and a solo 10th in Riviera at The Northern Trust Open which included a superb ace on the 16th in the final round.

Moore has played well here in the past finishing fourth here in 2012 and 12th in 2011. Statswise he ranks 30th in driving distance, 18th in SGTTG, second in par 3 scoring and ninth in par 4 scoring. If he putts well here this week he could be right in the mix.

 

Brandt Snedeker 40/1 Arnold Palmer Invitational Betting Preview 2016

Brandt Snedeker 40/1

It seems Sneds has recovered from sore ribs after withdrawing from the WGC Cadillac in Doral a couple of weeks and could come back with a bang here at Bay Hill. He has had a superb season so far which began with a T17 at The Frys and a win at The Franklin Templeton with partner Jason Dufner.

He started 2016 off with a T3 at The Hyundai Tournament of Champions, lost out in a playoff at The Sony in Hawaii and had a superb win in Torrey Pines which included a superb final round 69 in almost unplayable conditions. He’s gone a bit quiet lately finishing T33 in Phoenix and T35 in Pebble but can come back to good form on a course he has played well on in the past.

He finished 13th here last year and eighth in 2014 and ticks a lot of boxes statistically. He is averaging just over 295 off the tee and ranks sixth in SGP. He also ranks 12th in par 3 scoring and ninth in par 4 scoring. If he’s fit and healthy he should be right in the mix.

 

Jason Kokrak 60/1 Arnold Palmer Invitational Betting Preview 2016

Jason Kokrak 60/1

Kokrak came close to victory in Riviera and played solidly all week. He began with a 68 in round one and followed that with a 64,70,68 to finish 14 under just falling one short of winner Bubba Watson. He has had a mixed bag of form this season finishing T12 at The Sanderson Farms and followed that with a T17 at The OHL Classic. He started 2016 with a respectable T25 at The Farmers in Torrey pines and had another decent week in Pebble with a T30 finish.

He’s gone a bit cold over the last couple of weeks but has a great record here finishing sixth here last year and fourth in 2014. Kokrak is a huge hitter averaging 310 off the tee ranking seventh in driving distance. With four par 5’s and a good record over the last two years, Kokrak can go well here at a big price.

 

Final Selections –

Adam Scott 8/1 2pts EW

Henrik Stenson 12/1 2pts EW

Ryan Moore 33/1 1pt EW

Brandt Snedeker 40/1 1pt EW

Jaosn Kokrak 60/1 1pt EW

Total Staked = 14 pts

 

Paddypower paying 7 places this week. 

 

Good luck and enjoy the golf,

 

Doublebogey6

 

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The Barclays Betting Preview: FedEx Cup Playoffs

The Barclays

Ridgewood Country Club. Paramus, New Jersey
Par 71, 7,319 yards

The Course
The Barclays returns to Ridgewood CC this week where it hosted this event back in 2008 and 2010. Matt Kuchar defeated Martin Laird in a playoff to win in 2010 and Vijay Singh defeated Sergio Garcia and Kevin Sutherland in a playoff in 2008.

Ridgewood is a tree lined par 71 that measures 7,319 yards with three par 5’s, four par 3’s and 11 par 4’s. The course was designed by A.W Tillinghast in 1929 and is one of the oldest country clubs in the United States. Tillinghast has also designed courses that hosted major championship’s over the years such as Bethpage Black, which hosted the US Open in 2002 and 2009, Baltusrol which hosted the 2005 PGA and the west course at Winged Foot which played host to the 1997 PGA and 2006 US Open.

There will be an emphasis on driving accuracy on this course with its narrow tree lined fairways and penal rough. Par 4 scoring will be important along with good ball striking and putting. The greens here are undulating and will be tricky and fast depending on the weather.

Sergio Garcia pic 1

Sergio Garcia 20/1
With four top fives in his last six starts, Sergio comes to Ridgewood in superb form with his game in great shape. At The Players back in May, he finished solo third on 11 under par for the tournament and followed that with a T2 at The Travelers and another T2 at The Open Championship at Hoylake. Garcia then had yet another great week at Firestone at The WGC Bridgestone, which included a third round 61, to finish on 13 under par and solo second.

Sergio has course form here and came close to winning in 2008, but was defeated by Vijay Singh in a playoff to settle for second with Kevin Sutherland and came close again in Bethpage in 2012 finishing T3. Statswise he ranks 49th in driving accuracy, fourth in GIR, 35th in SGP and third in par 4 scoring. He ticks all the boxes here and looks like he could have a great week.

Phil Mickelson pic 1

Phil Mickelson 22/1
After a great performance last week at The PGA, Phil will be coming to The Barclays this week feeling confident. His season hasn’t been anything to shout about, however he has shown signs of good form over the last few weeks with good performances at The FedEx St Jude Classic (T11), The Bridgestone Invitational (T15) and a solo second last week at Valhalla.

Phil’s previous performances on Tillighast designs have been decent with a two second place finishes at The US Open in 2002 and 2009 in Bethpage Black and a win at the PGA Championsip back in 2005 at Baltusrol. Statswise he ranks 47th in SGP, 17th in par 4 performance and 31st in total putting.

Jimmy Walker 40/1
Jimmy Walker started the season off in style with wins at The Frys.com Open, The Sony Open and the AT&T at Pebble Beach. With solid performances at the majors so far this year, Jimmy Walker could be a man to keep your eye on here at The Barclays this week.

He has proven he can contend in the big events with great performances at The Masters (T8), The US Open (T9) and a respectable T26 at The Open. Walker also played great golf at Sawgrass closing with a 65 to finish T6th. Last week in Valhalla Walker shot an impressive final round 65 to finish T7th.

He ranks 30th in GIR, seventh in SGP, second in birdie average and 10th in scoring average. He also ranks third in total putting, 10th in par 4 performance and 11th in par 3 performance.

Hunter Mahan 45/1
Mahan has been showing some good form lately with good performances in his last two events. He had a good week at Firestone shooting 71,65,71,68 on his way to a T15 and played well last week at The PGA shooting a final round 67 to finish T7th. Mahan has played here before finishing in a respectable T31 in both 2008 and 2010. However in 2008, he shot a 62 to lead after round one and has proven he can go low around this course.

Mahan ranks 40th in driving accuracy, 42nd in GIR, 41st in strokes gained putting and 45th in par 4 performance. With decent performances here in the past, Hunter comes here in good form and could have a good week at a generous price.

Brandt Snedeker pic 1

Brandt Snedeker 33/1
Snedeker has been keeping a low profile lately with seven top 25’s in his last eight starts on the PGA Tour. He played well at The US Open (T9), The Travellers (T11) which included a final round 64, The Quicken Loans National (T21) and The Bridgestone Invitational (T12). In his last two events he finished T5 at The Wyndham and T13 at The PGA in Valhalla.

He comes here with his game in good shape and ranks 15th in SGP and is hitting 63% of fairways off the tee. He also ranks 29t in total putting and 23rd in par 5 performance. He played well at this event in 2012 at Bethpage finishing solo second and again at Plainfield in 2011 finishing T3 with Vijay Singh.

Final Selections:

Sergio Garcia 2 pts EW
Phil Mickelson 1.5pts EW
Jimmy Walker 1.5 pts EW
Hunter Mahan 1 pt EW
Brandt Snedeker 1 pt EW

Total Staked = 14 pts

Good luck and enjoy the golf,

DB

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