North Course, Silverado Resort & Spa, Napa Valley, California
Par 72 7,203 yards
It’s great to be back! Let’s hope we have yet another profitable year for the 2015/2016 season.
Silverado Resort & Spa measures a lengthy 7,203 yards and has four par 3’s, four par 5’s and 10 par 4’s. It was designed by Robert Trent Jones Jr in the 1960’s and was renovated by Johnny Miller in 2011. The fairways are tree lined with forgiving rough so missing the fairways here will not be a big deal. There are quite a lot of nice features around the course such as old Oak trees, elevation changes and water features and crossings. The greens are bent grass and are average size by PGA Tour standards and can get quite fast depending on weather conditions.
There is not a lot of data to go on here as this is only the second time this course has hosted the tournament but judging by last year, length does not seem to be a huge advantage. Players that have accurate iron play and the ability to negotiate these tricky bent grass greens should go well here this week. Top stats to consider are par 4 and par 5 scoring, GIR, approach stats, SGTTG and SGP.
Last year’s champion Sang-Moon Bae will not be able to defend his title as he has to serve two years military service, which is a compulsory requirement in all South Korean men. However, there are some big names in the field including World No. 3 Rory McIlroy, No. 7 Justin Rose, Brooks Koepka, Hideki Matsuyama, Charl Schwartzel and Chris Kirk. The weather is set to be sunny, dry and warm with light winds with the possibility of some showers over the weekend.
Justin Rose 8/1
After taking the last couple of weeks off, Justin Rose comes into this week in good form. He had a great finish to the 2014/15 season at The Tour Championship where he finished T2 shooting a superb final round 66 at East Lake. He has been playing some great golf over the last couple of months. He lost a playoff to David Lingmerth at The Memorial finishing P2 and followed that with a T6 at The Open, T4 at The Quicken Loans, T3 at The WGC Bridgestone, solo fourth at The PGA, T16 at The Barclays and a T13 at The BMW.
Rose ticks a lot of statistical boxes ranking ninth in GIR, 18th in par 4 scoring, fourth in par 5 scoring and sixth in strokes gained tee to green. He also ranks first in approaches from 75-100, first in approaches from 175-200 and first in approaches from 200-225, which are good stats for approaches into the par 4’s and par 5’s. With top notch accuracy stats, Rose should score well here on his first visit to Silverado.
Hideki Matsuyama 18/1
After winning two and a half points for the International Team at The Presidents Cup last week, Hideki Matsuyama will come to California this week feeling good about his game. As well as playing super last week in Korea, Matsuyama has been playing well for the last few months with 14 top 25’s in his last 17 tournaments. He had a good week at The Barclays finishing T13 and followed that with a T25 at The Deutsche Bank, T7 at The BMW and a T12 in East Lake at The Tour Championship. He had a great week here last year finishing T3 on 12 under for the tournament.
Statswise he ranks 21st in GIR, eighth in strokes gained tee to green, third in par 4 scoring and 24th in par 5 scoring. He also ranks 14th in approaches from 125-150, seventh in approaches from 175-200 and 15th in approaches from 50-75. After a solid performance in Korea last week, Matsuyama could be a big danger man here.
Brooks Koepka 22/1
The young American has been playing steady golf all season on both The PGA Tour and The European Tour. He had a great week at The Alfred Dunhill Links recently finishing T2 after shooting 64,67 over the weekend to finish on 16 under for the tournament. He also played well in the FedEx Cup Finale finishing T18 at The Tour Championship. Koepka put in huge performances at this year’s majors finishing T18 at The US Open, T10 at The Open Championship and T5 recently at The PGA Championship.
His form at this event has been good over the last couple of years. He finished T8 here on this course last year and T3 at Cordevalle in 2013. Statswise he ranks 17th in GIR, 34th in strokes gained tee to green and 17th in strokes gained putting. He also ranks second in approaches from 175-200, 10th in approaches from 200, 10th in par 4 scoring and seventh in par 5 scoring. With good finishes at The Tour Championship and The Dunhill Links recently, Koepka is one of the better players in this field and could be one to keep an eye on here.
Robert Streb 35/1
I was quite surprised to see a player of Streb’s calibre priced at 35/1. After winning the McGladrey Classic at the beginning of last season, Streb went on to have a great year finishing with seven top 25’s in his last nine events. He lost a playoff to Danny Lee at The Greenbrier Classic finishing P2 and followed that with a T14 at The John Deere, T18 at The Open Championship, solo fifth at The Bridgestone, T10 at The PGA, T23 at The BMW and T18 at The Tour Championship.
He played this event last year and finished in a respectable T31. He ranks 27th in GIR, 24th in strokes gained putting and seventh in approaches from 200-225. He also ranks second in par 3 scoring and 18th in par 4 scoring which will be a big help here with its ten par 4’s and four par 3’s. Streb is a better player coming here this time around and is most certainly one of the better players in this field.
Stephen Bowditch 80/1
The Aussie was part of the losing Presidents Cup team last week but played quite well himself throughout the week. He was drawn to play Jimmy Walker in the Sunday Singles and beat him 2 up so his game looks in good shape. Along with his win at The Byron Nelson, Bowditch had a good finish to the season with three top 15’s in his last six events. He finished T12 at The WGC Bridgestone, T13 at The Barclays and T12 at The Tour Championship.
Bowditch played well here last year shooting 67,67 over the weekend to finish solo second. He ranks 11th in approaches from 125-150, third in scrambling, 25th in par 3 scoring and 30th in par 4 scoring. After a solid performance at The Presidents Cup, the Aussie comes here in good form and could go well at a decent price.
Final Selections –
Justin Rose 8/1 2pts EW
Hideki Matsuyama 18/1 1.5 pts EW
Brooks Koepka 22/1 1.5 pts EW
Robert Streb 35/1 1 pt EW
Stephen Bowditch 80/1 1 pt EW
Total staked = 14 pts
Good luck and enjoy the golf,
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