The Open Championship Betting Preview 2017

Open Championship 2017 Royal Birkdale The Open Championship 2017 Betting Preview

Royal Birkdale, Southport, England

Par 70, 7156 yards

The Course

Its Open Championship week and promises to be filled with a mixed bag of weather and plenty of drama. Royal Birkdale was established in 1889 and underwent a huge redesign in 1922 by Fred Hawtree and JH Taylor to create the current layout. It gained it “Royal” status in 1951 and has been on the Open rota since 1954 when it hosted the Open Championship for the first time. Peter Thompson was the first man to win here and he went on to win a further five Open Championships. He returned to Birkdale in 1965 to win his fifth and final title. This course has been one of the most regular venues for the Open along with Royal Lytham and St Andrews.

It last took place here in 2008 when Irishman Padraig Harrington won on a score of 283 (+3) beating his closest challenger Englishman Ian Poulter by four shots in total. From what we can tell, it was a tough, testing track back in 2008 and demanded accurate driving, GIR and most importantly a good touch on and around the greens.  2017 will be the tenth time Royal Birkdale will be hosting The Open.

Birkdale has a total of 12 par 4’s, four par 3’s and two par fives and like many links courses, can play either very difficult or fairly straight forward depending on weather conditions. It is a very spectator friendly course with high dunes spread around the golf course offering some great viewing points. Traditionally with all links courses, keeping the ball in the fairway and avoiding the challenging rough will be extremely advantageous. Judging from the 2008 Open driving accuracy, GIR, scrambling and hot putter are a must if players are going to contend here.

 

Adam Scott 25/1 The Open Championship Betting Preview 2017Adam Scott 28/1

The Aussie arrives in Birkdale on the back of a respectable T35 in Scotland and looks nicely warmed up coming into this week. He has been in great form over the last couple of months with three top 10’s in his last six starts. Scott had a good week in Augusta finishing T9, which included two rounds in the 60’s. He followed that with a T6 at the Players Championship in Sawgrass, a T31 at Memorial and a T10 at the FedEx St Jude Classic which included an impressive second round 64.

Scott has a great record at The Open Championship over the last few years with four top 10’s in his last five appearances. He finished second to Ernie Els at Lytham & St Annes in 2012 and followed that with a third place finish in Muirfield in 2013, fifth in Hoylake in 2014 and a T10 in St Andrews in 2015.

Statswise Scott ticks a few boxes here ranking 33rd in GIR, 23rd in driving distance averaging a little over 300 yards of the tee, and first in par 3 scoring. Given his Open pedigree and decent current form, Scott has to be well fancied this week.

 

Sergio Garcia 18/1 The Open Championship Betting Preview 2017Sergio Garcia 18/1 

After a sensational performance in Augusta beating Justin Rose in a playoff, I don’t think anyone would begrudge the Spaniard a major especially after coming oh so close so many times. He’s one player that jumps off the page in terms of Open Championship form. He has an impressive 10 top 10 finishes in the Open over the last few years and came close to winning in 2007 when he was denied victory by Padraig Harrington in a playoff in Carnoustie.

His results over the last few years have been particularly impressive with three top 6’s in his last three Open starts. He finished second in Hoylake in 2014 and followed that with a sixth place finish in St Andrews in 2015 and a fifth in Troon last year.

After victory at The Masters, Sergio kept up his good form with a T30 at The Players, T20 at the Byron Nelson, T12 in Colonial, T21 at the US Open and T2 at the BMW International Open in Germany.

Statswise he is averaging just under 300 yards off the tee and ranks 30th in driving accuracy, sixth in GIR, third in SGTTG and 17th in par 4 scoring. Sergio seems to be a different man since winning in Augusta and has to be respected here especially with great performances in the Open over the last few years.

 

Henrik Stenson 25/1 The Open Championship Betting Preview 2017Henrik Stenson 25/1 

Its hard not to back Stenson after last years final round performance in Troon. We saw two heavyweights of the game with Stenson and Mickelson going toe to toe in the final round and it turned out to be one of the best final rounds in major championship history. Stenson was on fire from the get go and ended up carding, what turned out to be an unbelievable 63, winning by three from Mickelson who shot a none-too shabby 65.

The Swedes form in this event is excellent over the last ten years or so. He has three top three finishes including a win last year. He played well in Birkdale in 2008 finishing third and followed that with a T13 in Turnberry in 2009, third in St Andrews in 2010, second in Muirfield in 2013 and a superb win last year in Troon.

Stenson has been back showing some good form over the last couple of months finishing T3 at the BMW PGA in Wenworth, T16 at the Players Championship in Sawgrass, T26 at The Nordea Masters, T10 at the BMW International Open and a respectable T26 last week in Scotland, which included a final round 68. Stenson is hitting just under 75% of greens in regulation ranking 21st and ranks eighth in driving accuracy. He seems to be warming up nicely coming into this week and could be one to watch here.

 

Alex Noren 40/1 The Open Championship Betting Preview 2017Alex Noren 40/1

The in-form Swede is in superb form over the last year or so and when it comes to links courses, Noren has to be on the shortlist. He won the Scottish Open in Castlestuart in 2016 and went on to win four more times winning the European Masters, The British Masters, The Nedbank Challenge and the BMW PGA Championship. It’s also worth mentioning Noren was runner up to Anthony Wall at the Paul Lawrie Matchplay in 2016 in Archerfield Links in Scotland. He has also played well at the Alfred Dunhill Links over the last few years finishing T11 in 2016 and solo third in 2012.

Since winning the PGA in Wentworth, Noren went on to finish T15 at the Nordea Masters, tenth at The Players Championship and T10 at the Open De France. He hasn’t the best record in the Majors but Alex played well here in Birkdale in 2008 finishing T19. He also had a good week at the 2012 Open Championship finishing T9 at Lytham and St Annes. With a great links record and great current form, the world number nine could be another huge danger man here.

 

Padraig Harrington 50/1 The Open Championship Betting Preview 2017Padraig Harrington 50/1 

The 2008 champion has bounced back well after an elbow injury and looks to be back playing some good golf again. The Irishman played excellent last time the Open was held here in Birkdale and shot a superb final round 67 to beat Ian Poulter by four and lift the Claret Jug. Harrington played well last week in Scotland holding the 36 hole lead after shooting 67,68 in the first two rounds. The weather got the better of him on Saturday which resulted in a disappointing 79 but he bounced back with a final round 66 to finish T4. He has had a couple of good results over the last few weeks finishing T17 at the Travelers at the end of June shooting three rounds in the 60’s.

He has two Open Championships under his belt, the first one coming at Carnoustie in 2007 where he beat Sergio Garcia in a playoff and the second here in Birkdale in 2008. He also finished T20 in St Andrews in 2015 and T36 last year in Troon. He seems to be in a good place with his game and he’s the only one in the field that knows what its like to win here in Birkdale. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see him floating around the leaderboard come Sunday afternoon.

 

Ian Poulter 70/1 The Open Championship Betting Preview 2017Ian Poulter 70/1

I thought Poulter looked great value considering he’s back playing some good golf lately. As I mentioned above Poulter finished runner up to Harrington in 2008 on this course and has some good results at The Open over the last few years. He finished ninth in 2012 at Lytham and St Annes and followed that with a third place finish in 2013 in Muirfield.

He had a good week at the RBC Heritage in Harbour Town finishing T11 posting 11 under in total. Poulter then tee’d it up in Sawgrass and played solid throughout the week and putted very well finishing T2. He travelled to Scotland last week and finished T9 at the Scottish Open finishing seven under par in total. After a decent performance in Scotland and a runner up finish here in 2008, Poulter could be worth a small punt here this week.

 

Final Selections – 

Adam Scott 28/1 1pt EW

Henrik Stenson 25/1 1 pt EW

Sergio Garcia 18/1 1 pt EW

Alex Noren 40/1 0.5pts EW

Padraig Harrington 50/1 0.5pts EW

Ian Poulter 70/1 0.5pts EW

Total staked = 9 pts

 

*Most bookies paying seven places (PP paying 8)*

 

Good luck and enjoy the golf,

Doublebogey6

 

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Arnold Palmer Invitational Betting Preview 2017

Arnold Palmer Invitational Betting Preview 2017Bay Hill Club & Lodge, Orlando, Florida 

Par 72, 7,419 yards 

The Course 

Owned by the late Arnold Palmer since 1974, the famous Bay Hill Country Club is a par 72 measuring 7,419 yards and has hosted the annual Arnold Palmer Invitational since 1979. The course was designed by Dick Wilson in 1961, and illustrates his typical approach of slightly elevating the putting surfaces to improve visibility and drainage. The course covers 270 acres and lies between the community of Bay Hill, Florida and the Butler Chain of Lakes.

This course is a typical Florida setup with plenty of water and green side bunkers coming into play. The course layout was changed in 2010 from a par 70 to a par 72 and has a total of four par 5’s, four par 3’s and 10 par 4’s. The reason for this was to allow the players to give themselves more opportunities to make birdies. The course is situated along the Butler Chain of Lakes and has a tendency to get windy. The fairways are quite forgiving here so driving accuracy isn’t too much of an issue. Like a lot of the Florida courses we have seen over the last few weeks, water hazards come into play on roughly 9 of the 18 holes.

There are four par 3’s which are among the most difficult on the PGA Tour so par 3 scoring will be an important here. Good par 5 scoring stats will certainly be a big plus along with good ball striking, scrambling, putting and hitting plenty of GIR.

 

Henrik Stenson 9/1 Arnold Palmer Invitational Betting Preview 2017Henrik Stenson 9/1

Stenson had a superb start last week in Copperhead opening with an impressive 64 in round one at the Valspar. He was steady as a rock for the following three rounds shooting 71,71,70 to post 8 under par in total and T7 for the tournament. He has been playing well over the last few months with seven top 10’s in his last seven starts. He had a good week at the WGC HSBC Champions finishing T2 and followed that with a solo eighth at the Nedbank in South Africa, T9 at the DP World in Dubai, T8 in Abu Dhabi, solo second at the Hero World Challenge and a solo second at the Dubai Desert Classic recently.

Stenson has a great record here in Bay Hill finishing 15,8,5,2,3 in his last five appearances here. Staswise he ranks fourth in stroke average, sixth in driving accuracy and third in GIR so far this season on the European Tour. If he putts well he could go very well this week.

 

Brandt Snedeker 33/1 Arnold Palmer Invitational Betting Preview 2017Brandt Snedeker 33/1 

Snedeker’s game has been in great shape since the New Year with four top 15’s in his last six starts. He played well at the SBS Tournament of Champions in Hawaii finishing T14 and followed that with a T9 at The Farmers in Torrey Pines, solo fourth in Pebble Beach and a T7 at the WGC Mexico Championship.

He is another player with a decent record here with two top 15’s in his last three appearances here finishing eighth in 2014 and T13 in 2015. Staswise Snedeker ranks 30th in GIR, 27th in SG around the green, sixth in par 3 scoring and 37th in par 4 scoring.

 

Wesley Bryan 50/1 Arnold Palmer Invitational Betting Preview 2017Wesley Bryan 50/1 

The Web.com rookie didn’t have the best start to the season but he is certainly finding his stride over the last couple of weeks. He had his third top 10 finish in a row last week at The Valspar finishing T7 on eight under for the tournament. He also played well in LA at the Genesis Open shooting 69,69,63,72 to post 11 under in total and T4 for the week. Bryan then teed it up at the Honda and finished T4 on seven under, which included an opening round 64.

He is another player that looks like he could suit this course ranking 27th in SG approaches to the green, 21st in SG around the green and 13th in par 3 scoring.

 

Tommy Fleetwood 50/1 Arnold Palmer Invitational Betting Preview 2017Tommy Fleetwood 50/1 

The Englishman has been in great form over the last three months with a win already under his belt along with two top 10’s and a top 15 in his last six starts. Fleetwood had a great week at the Hong Kong Open where he didn’t shoot worse than a 68 throughout the tournament to finish T3. He followed that with a win in Abu Dhabi and a T12 at The Maybank Championship in Malaysia. Tommy then travelled to Mexico where he teed it up at the WGC Mexico Championship and played superbly all week to finish solo second which included a pair of 66’s over the weekend.

This will be his first appearance here in Bay Hill and this course could suit his game. He ranks seventh in stroke average, 25th in driving accuracy and first in GIR on the European Tour this season.

 

Final Selections –

Henrik Stenson 9/1 1pt EW

Brandt Snedeker 33/1 0.5pts EW

Wesley Bryan 50/1 0.5pts EW

Tommy Fleetwood 0.5pts EW

Total Staked = 5pts

 

Good luck and enjoy the golf,

Doublebogey6

 

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Valspar Championship Betting Preview  2017

Valspar Championship Betting Preview 2017Copperhead Course, Innisbrook Resort, Palm Harbour, Florida  

Par 71, 7,340 yards  

The Course  

There are four golf courses at Innisbrook all designed by Larry Packard, the oldest of which is the Island Course which was completed in 1970. The Copperhead Course came next in 1974, and originally had 27 holes before nine were used as the basis of the Highlands North Course. The final addition was the Highlands South Course.

The Copperhead course underwent some subtle changes in 2015 with bigger tee boxes, re shaped bunkers around the greens and re grassed fairways. It is a lengthy par 71 and has four par 5’s, five par 3’s and nine par 4’s.  All but one of the par 3’s measure over 200 yards and will demand good accurate iron play to score on the greens which are smaller than average for PGA Tour standards.

Three of the four par 5’s, the first, 11th and 14th are pretty easy and should offer up plenty of birdies. Players that can work the ball both directions should also have a big advantage with two out of the four par 5’s having double doglegs.  Although this course is long, there is more of an emphasis on accuracy with players reaping the rewards with accuracy off the tee on some holes.

Water will be a key feature and comes into play on 9 out of the 18 holes. This course features three tricky closing holes on the back nine 16, 17 and 18 which are called the “Snake Pit”. It consists of two very tricky par 4’s and a difficult par 3 and is known as one of the most difficult closing three hole stretches on Tour.

There are a few stats to consider on this course, the first one being accuracy off the tee. It also boasts five par 3’s and four par 5’s so be on the lookout for good par 3 and par 5 performance stats. The greens here are Bermuda greens and are quite small and tricky to read so be on the lookout for good GIR stats and accurate iron players.

 

Henrik Stenson 11/1 Valspar Championship Betting Preview 2017Henrik Stenson 11/1

Despite withdrawing last week in Mexico with a stomach virus, Stenson seems to be back to full health here this week. The Swede has been in great form over the last few months with six top 10’s in his last seven starts. He had a good week at the WGC HSBC Champions finishing T2 and followed that with a solo eighth at the Nedbank in South Africa, T9 at the DP World in Dubai, T8 in Abu Dhabi, solo second at the Hero World Challenge and a solo second at the Dubai Desert Classic a couple of weeks ago.

He has played well here at Copperhead in the past finishing T11 last year and fourth in 2015. Stenson could suit this course ranking sixth in driving accuracy, fourth in GIR and fourth in stroke average so far this season in Europe. He should be well rested after last week and looks a worthy favourite here.

 

Daniel Berger 25/1 Valspar Championship Betting Preview 2017Daniel Berger 25/1

I backed Daniel a couple of weeks ago at the Honda where he didn’t play his best but after an encouraging performance last week in Mexico, Im willing to give him another shot here. He has been playing some good golf recently and comes here with five top 20’s in his last eight starts. He had a good week at the WGC HSBC Champions back in October finishing T2 and followed that with a T14 at the SBS Tournament of Champions finishing 12 under. Berger had another solid performance at the Phoenix Open in February finishing T7 which included rounds of 71,66,66,68 to post 13 under par in total.

Last week in Mexico he played well for the first three rounds shooting 70,66,70 and was right in contention but fell away on Sunday shooting a final round 72 to finish T16. Berger played well here last year finishing T11 but comes here in much better form this time around. Growing up in Florida, Berger is a good Bermuda player and ranks 25th in SGP, 10th in scrambling and 27th in par 3 scoring.

 

Gary Woodland 25/1 Valspar Championship Betting Preview 2017Gary Woodland 25/1

Although Chapltapec didn’t really suit him last week, I reckon the big hitting American could feel more at home here in Copperhead this week. Woodland is in great form with four top 10’s and a top 20 in his last seven events. He had a good week at the OHL Classic finishing solo second and followed that with a T6 at The Sony Open in Hawaii and a T20 at The Farmers Insurance Open in Torrey Pines.

Most recently he played well at the Pebble Beach Pro-Am shooting 67,65 over the weekend to finish T5 on 12 under. He followed that with another solid performance at The Honda Classic in Florida shooting rounds of 71,66,66,69 to finish eight under and T2 for the tournament. Woodland has played well here over the last few years and had his first PGA Tour win here back in 2011. He also finished T29 in 2012 and T8 in 2014. Statswise Woodland is averaging just over 305 off the tee and ranks 15th in SG Approach to the green, 18th in SGTTG and 27th in GIR. If he putts well he could be dangerous.

 

Wesley Bryan 45/1 Valspar Championship Betting Preview 2017Wesley Bryan 45/1

Ive been keeping an eye on this guy over the last 6 months and he’s really turning into a superb player. Although he hasn’t had the best start to the season, Bryan has played really well in his last two tournaments posting two top 5’s. He played well in LA at the Genesis Open shooting 69,69,63,72 to post 11 under in total and T4 for the tournament. He then went to Florida and had another good week finishing T4 on seven under, which included an opening round 64.

Statswise Bryan looks like another player that could suit this course ranking 35th in SG approaches to the green, 25th in SG around the green and 18th in par 3 scoring. He looks great value for a player bang in form.

 

Final selections –

Henrik Stenson 11/1 1pt EW

Daniel Berger 25/1 0.5 pts EW

Gary Woodland 25/1 0.5 pts EW

Wesley Bryan 45/1 0.5 pts EW

Total staked = 5 pts

 

Good luck and enjoy the golf,

Doubleboegy6

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WGC-HSBC Champions Betting Preview 2016

WGC-HSBC Champions Betting Preview 2016Sheshan International GC (West), Sheshan, China

Par 72, 7,266 yards

The Course

The WGC-HSBC Champions returns to Sheshan International Golf Club this week which has been the host venue of this event over the last number of years. The field includes most the world’s top golfers including FedExCup champion Rory McIlroy, Bubba Watson, Adam Scott and Dustin Johnson. Previous winners include Francesco Molinari (2010), Martin Kaymer (2011), Dustin Johnson (2013), Bubba Watson (2014) and Russell Knox (2015).

Sheshan is a par 72 measuring 7,266 yards and has four par 5’s, four par 3’s and 10 par 4’s. The course has some elevation changes along with some man-made lakes and tree lined fairways. Length will be an advantage here as two of the par 5’s measure over 590 yards. The par 4’s will also favour the big hitters with half of them measuring 450 yards or longer and the par 3’s measuring 200 yards or longer. The fairways are fairly wide and forgiving and the greens are also quite large so scoring should be good this week.

The main areas of focus here are previous form/current form, driving distance, GIR, SGP, par 4 scoring and par 5 scoring.

 

Henrik Stenson 20/1 WGC-HSBC Champions Betting Preview 2016Henrik Stenson 20/1 

The Swede has been battling injury post Ryder Cup with his right knee but looks back to full fitness here. He played superb in The Ryder Cup and took US Superstar Jordan Spieth apart in the singles on Sunday driving and putting beautifully. He hasn’t played much over the last few weeks but played with huge dominance at the Open shooting rounds 68,65,68,63 to beat his nearest challenger Phil Mickelson by three strokes. He followed that with a T7 at The PGA and a solo second in Rio at The Olympics.

Stenson has a good record here in Sheshan finishing ninth in ’07, fifth on ’08, ninth in ’09, 13th in ’10, 24th in ’14 and 11th last year. He has the mix of accuracy and distance ranking first in SG approach to the green, 16th in SGP and first in GIR. If he is back fit and healthy I expect Henrik to have a solid week here at a venue that should suit his game.

 

Patrick Reed 33/1 WGC-HSBC Champions Betting Preview 2016Patrick Reed 33/1 

Despite a poor finish last week in Malaysia, Patrick Reed has been playing some great golf over the last few weeks and was superb in the Ryder Cup particularly against Rory McIlroy in the singles. Reed finished T51 last week at The CIMB Classic which was his first finish outside the top 25 in 11 starts. After a fantastic win at The Barclays, Reed followed that with a T5 at The Deutsche Bank, T13 at The BMW and a T24 at The Tour Championship.

He has played well here in the past finishing seventh last year and 22nd in 2014. Statswise he ranks eighth in SG around the green, eighth in scrambling, 22nd in par 3 scoring and tenth in par 5 scoring. He looks a generous price here this week and could have a good week.

 

Russell Knox 40/1 WGC-HSBC Champions Betting Preview 2016Russell Knox 40/1 

The defending champion finished off the season well and comes here in decent form. He had a good week in Malaysia finishing in a respectable T10 at The CIMB Classic and hit over 80% of greens in regulation. He had a superb win at the Travelers Championship and didn’t shoot worse than a 68 all week to finish 14 under in total. He followed that with a T15 at The Deutsche Bank and a T17 at The BMW. He had a brilliant week here last year shooting 67,65,68,68 to finish 20 under par in total beating his closest challenger Kevin Kisner by two strokes.

Knox is one of the most accurate players on tour ranking eighth in driving accuracy, ninth in GIR and 34th in par 4 scoring. If he putts well he could have a great chance here.

 

Alexander Levy 80/1

The Frenchman looks extremely overpriced here this week considering his current form and excellent record in China. Levy won the 2014 China Open and finished third the following year and was runner up at the 2014 BMW Masters which he should’ve won if it weren’t for a disastrous final round 78. He played well at The Sheshan International this year on the European Tour finishing fourth. He has been playing well over the last few weeks with a T18 at The European Masters, T7 at The Italian Open, a win at The European Open and a T4 at The British Masters.

He has only played this event once finishing T14 in 2014 and could have the game to suit this course. With a great record here in China over the last few years and a promising debut here in 2014 Levy looks fantastic value here.

 

Final selections –

Henrik Stenson 1pt EW 20/1

Patrick Reed 1pt EW 33/1

Russell Knox 0.5pt EW 40/1

Alexander Levy 0.5pt EW 80/1

Total staked = 6 pts

 

Good luck and enjoy the golf,

 

Doublebogey6

 

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US PGA Championship Betting Preview 2016

PGA Championship Betting Preview 2014Baltusrol Golf Club, Lower Course, Springfield, New Jersey

7,428 yards par 70

The Course

The Baltusrol Golf Club is a private 36-hole golf club in Springfield, New Jersey located about 30 km west of New York City. It was founded 121 years ago in 1895 by Louis Keller and was named after Baltus Roll, who farmed the land on which the club resides today.

In 1985, Baltusrol became the first club to have hosted both the U.S. Open and Women’s U.S. Open on two different courses. Both courses were originally designed by A. W. Tillinghast in 1918. The club’s original 9-hole course was designed by George Hunter in 1895, and expanded to 18 holes in 1898.  The first national championship on the Upper Course was the U.S. Open in 1936. Among the many major tournaments it has hosted, the club was most recently the site of the 2005 PGA Championship.

In 1948, Robert Trent Jones was retained to update and lengthen the Lower course for tournament play. The Lower course was lengthened again by his son Rees Jones in 1992 in preparation for the U.S. Open in 1993. He also updated and lengthened the Upper course in advance of the 2000 U.S. Amateur.

The course is spread out over rolling parkland with ponds and other man-made and natural hazards that come into play. It has four par 3’s, 12 par 4’s and only two par 5’s. The 4th hole and the 18th hole have ponds which will add a slight intimidation factor for the players. The three signature holes of the are the fourth, a par three of 194 yards where players must hit their ball over the pond to a two-tiered green; the seventeenth, a par five of 650 yards and the eighteenth, a par five of 533 yards which will be reachable in two for most of the field. The pond on the left hand side of the eighteenth has been made bigger since 2005 and could be a bit intimidating for the players with a draw or a fade for the leftys. Six of the par 4’s measure over 450 yards with the longest being the 505 yard 7th. The longest of the par 3’s is the 16th which measures a lengthy 230 yards.

This course is a tricky and lengthy par 70 with average size fairways. The rough looks like its going to be particularly penal so keeping it in the fairway will be advantageous. There will also be some tricky fairway bunkers to contend with so driving accuracy looks to be important. The greens are quite small and sloppy so GIR will be one stat to pay particular attention to here along with good putting.

Phil Mickelson won here back in 2005 on a score of four under par. Other previous winners at Baltusrol include Jack Nicklaus and Lee Janzen.

 

Rory McIlroy 8/1 US PGA Championship 2016 Betting PreviewRory McIlroy 8/1

The more I look at Baltusrol the more I think it could be a great fit for Rory. He fought hard for a T5 finish at Troon and was a bit unlucky with the draw and the weather. Despite that he still shot rounds of 69,71,73,67 to finish four under par in total. Rory has been playing well over the last few weeks with a win and four top 5’s in his last seven events. He had a good week at The Wells Fargo finishing T4 and followed that with a win at The Irish Open, T4 at Memorial, solo third at The French Open and a T5 at The Open.

He has a superb PGA Championship record with two wins which came in Valhalla in 2014 and Kiawah Island in 2012, a third place finish in 2010, T8 in 2013 at Oak Hill and a T17 last year in Whisling Straits. He ranks first in strokes gained off the tee, third in strokes gained tee to green and 13th in driving distance. With a great record at this event and good current form Rory looks a good bet here and the pick of the favs.

 

Henrik Stenson 16/1 USPGA Championship 2016 Betting PreviewHenrik Stenson 16/1

After the heroics of Royal Troon a couple of weeks ago The Swede looks to have his game in superb shape coming to Baltustrol. He broke all sorts of records at The Open and didn’t shoot worse than a 68 all week posting an impressive 20 under par in total. He also had a good week in Scotland finishing in a respectable T13 and recovered well after opening with a 76. Stenson has six top 25’s in his last nine starts and seems to be in the best form of his life. He played well in Houston finishing solo second and followed that with a T24 in Augusta, a T4 at The Nordea Masters, a win at The BMW International Open, a T13 in Castle Stuart and a win in Troon.

Statswise he ranks first in driving accuracy, second in GIR and seventh in SGTTG. He has played well in previous USPGA’s finishing 25th last year in Whistling Straits, third in 2014 in Valhalla and third in 2013 at Oak Hill. With Baltusrol demanding accuracy off the tee along with hitting plenty of greens this will be right up Stenson’s street and he could add a second major to his trophy cabinet this week.

 

Phil Mickelson 20/1 USPGA Championship 2016 Betting Preview Phil Mickelson 20/1

After going toe to toe with Stenson in Troon, Mickelson finished three strokes behind The Swede after shooting a superb final round 65 to finish solo second. He played great golf all week opening with an impressive 63 and followed that with a 69,70,65 over the weekend to finish 17 under par in total. Mickelson has been playing well this season with five top 30’s in his last seven starts. He played well at The Wells Fargo finishing T4 and followed that with a T20 in Memorial, T2 at The St Jude, T27 at The Bridgestone and a solo second at The Open.

He has won around Baltusrol in the past winning the 2005 USPGA Championship on four under par. He has a good record over the last few years finishing T12 in 2010 at Whistling Straits, T19 in 2011 in Athletic Club, second in 2014 in Valhalla and T18 last year in Whistling Straits. Statswise Phil ranks 16th in strokes gained tee to green, fourth in SGP, fist in par 3 scoring and 10th in par 5 scoring. With being a previous winner here in Baltusrol, a decent record in USPGA Championships and a superb performance at Troon recently, Phil has to have a good chance here.

 

Zach Johnson 55/1 USPGA Championship 2016Zach Johnson 55/1

Although Johnson isn’t the biggest hitter on Tour he may have the edge here with his accurate driving and great putting. He has been playing well over the last few weeks and hasn’t finished worse than T17 in his last four starts. He had a good week at The Dean and Deluca Invitational finishing T17 and followed that with a T8 at The US Open, T10 at The WGC Bridgestone and a T12 at The Open Championship in Troon which would have been a lot better if it weren’t for a third round 75. He has played well around Baltusrol before finishing T17 here in 2005.

He has decent PGA Championship form finishing third in 2010 at Whistling Straits and eighth in 2013 at Oak Hill. With great current form and a good performance here in ’05 Johnson is another player with a good chance here.

 

JB Holmes 66/1 USPGA Championship 2016J.B. Holmes 66/1

As we all know, J.B. can be a little bit unpredictable but after seeing his rather generous price I thought he was worth a look here. He played well in two of the last three majors finishing T4 in Augusta after a super final round 68, and solo third at The Open after shooting two 69’s over the weekend. He also finished T13 in Texas and T4 at Memorial recently after shooting 67,69 over the weekend so his current form is very good.

He finished T24 in Whistling Straits in 2010 and T24 again in Whistling Straits last year. Statswise he ranks second in driving distance and seventh in strokes gained off the tee which could be a big advantage around here. If he gets the putter rolling he could be one to watch here.

 

Jason Dufner 80/1 USPGA Championship 2016Jason Dufner 80/1

The 2013 Champion has had a decent season so far and seems to be returning to form lately with four top 25’s in his last seven events. He has won already this season shooting 64,65,64,70 to win the CareerBuilder Challenge back in January. He played well at The Byron Nelson finishing T24 and followed that with a T6 in Colonial, T8 at The US Open and T22 at The Open Championship in Troon.

His USPGA record in quite impressive. He finished fifth in 2010 at Whistling Straits, second in 2011, T27 in 2012 in Kiawah and a win in 2013 at Oak Hill. Dufner looks to have the game that could suit this course ranking eighth in GIR, 23rd in strokes gained tee to green and 16th in par 4 scoring. For a guy that’s a good record in this event and is playing well he looks a tad overpriced here.

 

Final selections – 

Rory McIlroy 2pts EW 8/1

Henrik Stenson 1.5pts EW 16/1 

Phil Mickelson 1.5pts EW 20/1 

Zach Johnson 1pt EW 55/1 

J.B. Holmes 1pt EW 66/1

Jason Dufner 1pt EW 80/1 

Total staked = 16 pts 

 

Good luck and enjoy the golf,

Doublebogey6

 

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The Open Championship Betting Preview 2016

The Open Championship Betting Preview 2016 Royal TroonThe Old Course, Royal Troon Golf Club, Troon, South Ayrshire, Scotland

Par 71, 7,064 yards

The Course

The Open Championship is the oldest of the four majors and always takes place on a tricky links style setup in the month of July. The last time Troon hosted the Open Todd Hamilton was the surprise winner beating Ernie Els in a playoff.

Royal Troon Golf Club is a links golf course located in Troon, South Ayrshire, southwest of Glasgow. The club was founded 138 years ago in 1878, initially with five holes. George Strath was appointed in 1881 as the club’s first golf professional. Adjacent to the Firth of Clyde, Troon was granted its “Royal” accolade in 1978, during its centennial.

Past Open champions at Royal Troon include Justin Leonard, Mark Calcavecchia, Tom Watson, Tom Weiskopf, Arnold Palmer, Bobby Locke, and Arthur Havers. The last six Opens at Troon have been won by Americans.

The course has 11 par 4’s, 3 par 5’s and 4 par 3’s. The toughest holes at the 2004 Open were the par 4 eleventh and the par 5 sixth which measures a daunting 601 yards.

The teeth of this course are the blind bunkers off the tee, some of which are deep pot bunkers, the prevailing wind howling in off the coast and the penal gorse. Royal Troon is home to both the longest and shortest holes in Open Championship golf. Regarded as one of the top holes in the world, the par-3 8th hole “Postage Stamp” measures a short 123 yards, but its diminutive green measures a mere 420 square feet and can be difficult to hit if the wind gets up. The main areas to look at here are GIR, driving distance/accuracy, strokes gained putting and above all else previous Open/links experience.

Usually players that have played well in previous Opens and contended in majors over the last few years are the guys to keep an eye on here. Have no doubt about it, experience will be key.

 

Dustin Johnson 9/1 Open Championship 2016Dustin Johnson 9/1

What an incredible few weeks it’s been for DJ. He has played superb golf this season and comes to Troon this week after back to back wins at The US Open and The WGC Bridgestone. I noticed on Twitter last week Johnson played a round in Portmarnock Links and St Annes in Dublin getting in some practice for Troon and played very well apparently. The American has been in superb form recently finishing fourth in Riviera, third in Houston, T4 in Augusta, T12 at The Byron Nelson, third in Memorial, fifth at the St. Jude and back to back wins in Oakmont and Firestone.

His Open Championship CV is also quite good with a T14 in 2010 at St Andrews, second in 2011 at Royal St Georges, ninth in 2012 at Lytham and T12 at Hoylake in 2014. He led after two rounds in St Andrews last year but fell behind after a couple of 75’s over the weekend to finish T49. Johnson ranks second in driving distance, 30th in GIR, 38th in strokes gained putting, second in proximity to the hole and leads par 4 scoring. After playing with such dominance over the last few weeks, Johnson has to be the man to beat here.

 

Adam Scott 25/1 Open Championship 2016 Royal Troon Adam Scott 25/1

After back to back wins at The WGC Cadillac and The Honda Classic earlier this season not to mention his good current form, Scott could be one to watch here this week. The Aussie has been playing well lately with four top 20’s in his last five starts. He had a good week at The Wells Fargo finishing T17 and followed that with a T12 at The Players, T18 at The US Open and a T10 at The WGC Bridgestone. He has been in Troon over the last week practicing and said on Sky Sports News his game “felt really good”.

Scott has a great Open Championship record finishing second in 2012 at Lytham & St Annes, third in 2013 in Muirfield, fifth in 2014 in Hoylake and T10 last year in St Andrews. He had a great chance to win in 2012 but his tee shot found a pot bunker just off the 18th fairway and Scott was left with no other option only to chip out sideways. This led to an unfortunate bogey and he ended up losing by one stroke to Ernie Els. He ticks a lot of boxes statswise here ranking first in SGTTG, 15th in driving distance, 23rd in GIR and sixth in proximity to the hole. With such a great record in The Open over the last few years Scott has a really good chance here.

 

Henrik Stenson 28/1 Open Championship 2016 Royal Troon Henrik Stenson 28/1

The Swede had a good week in Scotland finishing in a respectable T13 and recovered well after opening with a 76. Stenson has five top 25’s in his last eight starts and looks to have his game in great shape coming into this week. He played well in Houston finishing solo second and followed that with a T24 in Augusta, a T4 at The Nordea Masters, a win in Germany at The BMW International Open and a T13 last week in Castle Stuart.

He has a mixed bag of results at The Open over the last few years but most notably finished third in 2010 in St Andrews and second in 2013 in Muirfield. Statswise he ranks first in driving accuracy, second in GIR and seventh in SGTTG. In 2013 Stenson finished T3 in Castle Stuart at The Scottish Open and followed that up with a second place finish in Muirfield. Let’s hope history repeats itself here and Henrik goes one better this time around.

 

Branden Grace 30/1 Open Championship 2016 Royal Troon Branden Grace 30/1

Grace started well last week in Castle Stuart shooting 71,67 in the first two rounds but fell away over the weekend shooting a disappointing 74,71 to finish T29. However he has been in great form lately and had a great win at The RBC Heritage a few weeks ago. He followed that with a T5 in Oakmont at The US Open and a T10 in Firestone at The WGC Bridgestone. He won at the windy Doha Golf Club Qatar in 2014 and again earlier this year and is no stranger to windy conditions.

He has won on links style setups before winning the Alfred Dunhill Links in 2012, a second place finish in Castle Stuart at The Scottish Open in 2013 and a respectable T25 at The Alfred Dunhill Links 2014. He has played the Open four times in the past and his best finish was T20 last year in St Andrews but he could improve on that here in Troon. The South African ticks the boxes here ranking 20th in driving distance averaging just under 300 yards off the tee, 23rd in GIR and seventh in strokes gained putting. With a decent links CV and good current form Grace could be worth keeping on side here.

 

Martin Kaymer 45/1 The Open Championship 2016 Royal TroonMartin Kaymer 45/1

The German has been playing very well recently and looks to have his game in great shape with five top 15’s in his last six starts. His good run began in Valderrama where he finished T6 at The Open De Espana in wet and windy conditions. He followed that with a T5 in The Irish Open at another wet and windy venue The K Club in Co. Kildare negotiating the conditions superbly finishing with a final round 65. Kaymer had another good week in Wentworth finishing T7 and the BMW PGA and followed that with a T5 at The Open De France and a T13 last week in Castle Stuart.

He has a good Open Championship record finishing T12 in St Andrews last year, T12 at Royal St Georges in 2011 and T7 at St Andrews in 2010. Kaymer has a decent links record winning The Alfred Dunhill Links in 2010 and finishing T7 at the same tournament in 2013. With excellent current form and a decent links record, Kaymer could be another danger man here at a decent price.

 

Graeme McDowell 80/1 Open Championship 2016 Royal Troon Graeme McDowell 80/1

The Portrush man played well in Castle Stuart finishing T10 and didn’t shoot worse than a 71 to finish nine under for the week. He has been showing glimpses of decent form finishing T9 at The Players Championship which included two 69’s over the weekend. He then followed that with a T27 at The BMW PGA in Wentworth and a T18 at The US Open in Oakmont. He won The OHL Classic at Mayakoba earlier this season at the windy El Camaleon in Mexico. Gmac has a decent record at The Open over the last few years finishing T9 in Hoylake in 2014, T5 in Lytham and St Annes in 2012 and T23 in St Andrews in 2010. He is another player with decent Links credentials finishing T19 at The Alfred Dunhill Links in 2015 and T3 in 2011 and winning the US Open around the windy Pebble Beach in 2010. McDowell is an accomplished links player and looks great value here at 80/1.

 

Nicolas Colsaerts 125/1 The Open Championship 2016 Royal Troon Nicolas Colsaerts 125/1

The Belgian bomber looked really impressive last week in Scotland especially on the back 9 on Sunday. He had four birdies and an eagle to card an impressive 30 strokes on the way in to finish T3 for the tournament. He has been playing well lately with seven top 25’s in his last eight starts. He had a good week in China finishing T15 and then followed that with a T3 in Mauritius, T23 at The Irish Open, T22 at The BMW PGA, solo third at The Nordea Masters, T22 at The Open De France and a T3 last week in Castle Stuart.

Colsaerts was one of four players to claim a spot for the Open in Scotland and has only played in three Open Championships before. Despite missing the cut at both St Andrews last year and Muirfield in 2013, he did play well in Lytham and St Annes in 2012 finishing an impressive T7 which included two 65’s. He has played well on links setups in the past finishing T3 in 2011 and T8 in 2013 in Castle Stuart, T19 at The Johnnie Walker at Gleneagles in 2012 and T9 at The Alfred Dunhill Links in 2011. Statswise he ranks 12th in driving distance averaging 301 yards off the tee and seventh in GIR hitting 75% of greens on average. If the Belgian heats up and makes a few putts he could be a big contender at a huge price.

 

Final selections –

Dustin Johnson 2.5pts EW 9/1

Adam Scott 1pt EW 25/1

Henrik Stenson 1pt EW 28/1

Branden Grace 1pt EW 30/1

Martin Kaymer 1pt EW 45/1

Graeme McDowell 1pt EW 80/1

Nicholas Colsaerts 1pt EW 125/1

Total staked = 17 pts

 

Good luck and enjoy the golf,

Doublebogey6

 

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Arnold Palmer Invitational Betting Preview 2016

Arnold Palmr Invitational Betting Preview 2016

Bay Hill Club & Lodge, Orlando, Florida

Par 72, 7,419 yards

The Course

The next stop on the PGA Tour is The Arnold Palmer Invitational in Bay Hill. Tiger Woods has won this event an impressive eight times, but won’t be playing this week. This course is a par 72 and is a lengthy 7,419 yards. The course was designed by Dick Wilson in 1961, and illustrates his typical approach of slightly elevating the putting surfaces to improve visibility and drainage. The course covers 270 acres and lies between the community of Bay Hill, Florida and the Butler Chain of Lakes. Owned by Arnold Palmer since 1974, it has hosted the annual Arnold Palmer Invitational since 1979.

This course is a typical Florida setup with plenty of water and greenside bunkers coming into play. The course layout was changed in 2010 from a par 70 to a par 72 and has a total of four par 5’s, four par 3’s and 10 par 4’s. The reason for this was to allow the players to give themselves more opportunities to make birdies. The course is situated along the Butler Chain of Lakes and has a tendency to get windy. The fairways are quite forgiving here so driving accuracy isn’t too much of an issue. Like a lot of the Florida courses we have seen over the last few weeks, water hazards come into play on roughly 9 of the 18 holes.

There are four par 3’s which are amongst the most difficult on the PGA Tour so par 3 scoring will be an important here. Good par 5 scoring stats will certainly be a big plus along with good ball striking, scrambling, putting and GIR. Good current form and good form around Bay Hill are also a big plus this week.

 

Adam Scott 8/1 Arnold Palmer Invitational Betting Preview 2016

Adam Scott 8/1

The big question on everyone’s lips this week is can Adam Scott do the hat trick and make it three in a row? In my opinion, yes. With two wins and a second in his last three events the Aussie is in absolutely flying form and is without a doubt the favourite here this week.

He played brilliantly in Riviera and just came up short despite chipping in on the 18th for a birdie to finish T2. He followed that with a win at The Honda shooting 70,65,66,70 to finish nine under for the tournament. He then had another great week at The WGC Cadillac in Doral recording his second win in two weeks finishing one clear after a miraculous up and down on the 18th. He has played well at Bay Hill in the past finishing T3 in 2014 which included an opening round course record 62.

Scott looks like he could suit this course ranking ninth in driving distance, sixth in GIR and first in SGTTG. He also ranks ninth in par 3 scoring and first in par 5 scoring which are two stats that will stand to him here at Bay Hill this week.

 

Henrik Stenson 12//1 Arnold Palmer Invitational Betting Preview 2016

Henrik Stenson 12/1

The Swede had a good performance at The Valspar last week shooting 71,70,70,72 on his way to a respectable T11 finish. He also had a good week in Doral finishing in a respectable T28, which would have been a lot better if it weren’t for a third round 76. Stenson started the year off with two top 6’s in the Desert Swing finishing T3 in Abu Dhabi and T6 the following week in Dubai.

He has a superb record around Bay Hill finishing second last year, fifth in 2014, T8 in 2013 and T15 in 2012. Stenson ticks a lot of boxes statswise here ranking fourth in stroke average, 22nd in driving accuracy, 13th in GIR and third in strokes gained putting. With some decent performances over the last few weeks and a great record here, Henrik Stenson could right the wrongs of last year and get the job done this week.

 

Ryan Moore 33/1 Arnold Palmer Invitational Betting Preview 2016

Ryan Moore 33/1

After another solid performance at The Valspar last week, I’ve decided to give Ryan Moore another go here in Bay Hill. He added another top 10 finish to the list last week finishing solo third at Copperhead making that five top 11’s in seven starts. He started the season with a T10 at The Frys, T10 at The CIMB Classic, T11 in Phoenix and a solo 10th in Riviera at The Northern Trust Open which included a superb ace on the 16th in the final round.

Moore has played well here in the past finishing fourth here in 2012 and 12th in 2011. Statswise he ranks 30th in driving distance, 18th in SGTTG, second in par 3 scoring and ninth in par 4 scoring. If he putts well here this week he could be right in the mix.

 

Brandt Snedeker 40/1 Arnold Palmer Invitational Betting Preview 2016

Brandt Snedeker 40/1

It seems Sneds has recovered from sore ribs after withdrawing from the WGC Cadillac in Doral a couple of weeks and could come back with a bang here at Bay Hill. He has had a superb season so far which began with a T17 at The Frys and a win at The Franklin Templeton with partner Jason Dufner.

He started 2016 off with a T3 at The Hyundai Tournament of Champions, lost out in a playoff at The Sony in Hawaii and had a superb win in Torrey Pines which included a superb final round 69 in almost unplayable conditions. He’s gone a bit quiet lately finishing T33 in Phoenix and T35 in Pebble but can come back to good form on a course he has played well on in the past.

He finished 13th here last year and eighth in 2014 and ticks a lot of boxes statistically. He is averaging just over 295 off the tee and ranks sixth in SGP. He also ranks 12th in par 3 scoring and ninth in par 4 scoring. If he’s fit and healthy he should be right in the mix.

 

Jason Kokrak 60/1 Arnold Palmer Invitational Betting Preview 2016

Jason Kokrak 60/1

Kokrak came close to victory in Riviera and played solidly all week. He began with a 68 in round one and followed that with a 64,70,68 to finish 14 under just falling one short of winner Bubba Watson. He has had a mixed bag of form this season finishing T12 at The Sanderson Farms and followed that with a T17 at The OHL Classic. He started 2016 with a respectable T25 at The Farmers in Torrey pines and had another decent week in Pebble with a T30 finish.

He’s gone a bit cold over the last couple of weeks but has a great record here finishing sixth here last year and fourth in 2014. Kokrak is a huge hitter averaging 310 off the tee ranking seventh in driving distance. With four par 5’s and a good record over the last two years, Kokrak can go well here at a big price.

 

Final Selections –

Adam Scott 8/1 2pts EW

Henrik Stenson 12/1 2pts EW

Ryan Moore 33/1 1pt EW

Brandt Snedeker 40/1 1pt EW

Jaosn Kokrak 60/1 1pt EW

Total Staked = 14 pts

 

Paddypower paying 7 places this week. 

 

Good luck and enjoy the golf,

 

Doublebogey6

 

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WGC Cadillac Championship Betting Preview 2016

WGC Cadillac Betting Preview 2016

Blue Monster Course, Doral Resort, Florida Par 72, 7,543 yards 

The Course 

This course has undergone some serious surgery in the last two years with Donald Trump pumping 250 million dollars into the course to add length and increase the overall difficulty of the blue monster.

The course has four par 5’s, four par 3’s and 10 par 4’s and has an extra 47 yards added onto it. The par 5 first measures a lengthy 605 yards, the par 3 fourth has an extra 24 yards and the par 4 eighteenth has an extra 5 yards added to it. These changes have made the Trump Doral inside the top five longest host courses on the PGA Tour.

Dustin Johnson won here last year on nine under and Patrick Reed won this event in 2014 shooting the highest score in the tournaments history finishing on 284 on four under par. Over the years, length has been of particular importance in this event. With this course now over 7,500 yards in length, it will be even more important so be on the lookout for bombers with good driving stats that are showing good recent form.

There are some main stats to consider going on previous years. Although length is key, par 4 scoring, par 5 scoring and GIR will be important here. The usual mix of good current form and good previous form on this course will also be worth checking out especially over the last two years since the course changes took place.

 

Bubba Watson 11/1 WGC Cadillac Betting Preview 2016

Bubba Watson 11/1

Bubba comes into this week in good form and played superbly well recently in Riviera shooting a 68 in the final round to win by one stroke over Jason Kokrak and Adam Scott. He has two wins and two top 15’s in his last four starts. He won The Hero World Challenge back in December and followed that with a T10 at The Hyundai Tournament of Champions and a T14 at The Phoenix Open.

He has a great record here at Doral finishing T3 last year, T2 in 2014, T18 in 2013 and T2 in 2012. Bubba also ticks a lot of boxes statistically here ranking sixth in driving distance, sixth in GIR and fourth in SGTTG. He also ranks 28th in par 4 scoring and 19th in par 5 scoring and should feel at home on this course where he has played well on in the past and seems to suit his game.

 

Dustin Johnson 12/1 WGC Cadillac Championship Betting Preview 2016

Dustin Johnson 12/1

I thought DJ looked more confident at Riviera and played well all week finishing solo fourth and showed a lot of consistency shooting 68,66,68,69 to finish 13 under in total. His form has been good finishing T5 at The WGC HSBC Champions, 15th at The Hero World Challenge, T10 at the Hyundai Tournament of Champions and T18 at The Farmers in Torrey Pines which would have been a lot better if it weren’t for a final round 80 in near unplayable conditions.

Johnson is another player with a great record in Doral with a win last year, T4 in 2014, T12 in 2013 and T2 in 2011. He also ticks a lot of boxes here ranking seventh in driving distance, ninth in SGTTG, 28th in par 4 scoring and 13th in par 5 scoring. After playing well over the last few weeks DJ should be a huge contender here.

 

JB Holmes 30/1 WGC Cadillac Championship Betting Preview 2016

J.B. Holmes 30/1

Regular readers of this blog will know I have tipped J.B a lot over the last few weeks and ive decided to give him another go this week. Despite not winning me anything over the last few weeks, he has been playing decent with six top 12’s in his last seven events. He started the season well with a T8 at the Hero World Challenge and followed that with a T12 at The Franklin Templeton Shootout, T6 at The Farmers, T6 in Phoenix, T11 in Pebble and T11 at The Northern Trust Open.

J.B finished T2 here last year shooting an impressive 62 in round one and is another bomber off the tee which should suit this course. He ranks third in driving distance, sixth in SGTTG and 20th in par 4 scoring. With some quality performances over the last few weeks and a good week here in Doral last year, J.B looks a solid bet here this week.

 

Henrik Stenson 28/1 WGC Cadillac Championship Betting Preview 2016

Henrik Stenson 28/1

The Swede has bounced back well after an injury and has been playing well over the last couple of months. He played well at the WGC HSBC Champions finishing T11 and followed that with a T3 at The BMW Masters. He also had a good week at The Nedbank before Christmas finishing solo second and started the New Year with a T3 in Abu Dhabi and a T6 in Dubai.

Stenson is another player with a good record here finishing T4 here last year and T16 in 2013. He also fits the bill here ranking 11th in GIR, second in strokes gained putting and 18th in driving accuracy. Stenson is another big hitter and should go well here especially after playing so well in the desert swing.

 

First Round Leader –

Dustin Johnson 18/1

With such a good record at this venue, Dustin Johnson has gone low here in round one over the last few years and hasn’t shot worse than a 69 in four of his last five opening rounds in Doral. He started with a 69 in 2011, 68 in 2013, 69 in 2014 and a 68 last year.

In his last six opening rounds he has only shot over 70 once, which was at The Hyundai Tournament of Champions where he opened with a 73 and bounced back with a 67,68,69 to finish -14. Most recently he opened with a 70 in Torrey Pines in The Farmers Insurance Open, 70 in Pebble Beach and an impressive 68 in Riviera at The Northern Trust Open. After a solo fourth in Riviera and four rounds in the 60’s, I fancy DJ to start strongly and open with a low one here.

 

Final Selections –

Bubba Watson 11/1 2pts EW

Dustin Johnson 12/1 2pts EW

J.B. Holmes 30/1 1pt EW

Henrik Stenson 28/1 1pt EW

Dustin Johsnon 18/1 1pt EW First Round Leader

Total Staked = 14 pts

 

Good luck and enjoy the golf,

 

Doublebogey6

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Deutsche Bank Championship Betting Preview 2015

 

Deutsche Bank Championship 2015 FedExCup Playoffs

Field: Top 100 in FedExCup Standings 

TPC Boston, Norton, MA 

Par 71, 7,242 yards

The Course

This week the FedExCup Playoffs travels to TPC Boston where it has hosted this event since 2003. It is a par 71 layout with three par 5’s, four par 3’s and 11 par 4’s and has a tendency to give up very low scores. Chris Kirk was the winner last year finishing on 15 under par and Henrik Stenson won here in 2013 finishing on 22 under par.

Other previous winners include Rory McIlroy (2012), Webb Simpson (2011), Charley Hoffman (2010), Steve Stricker (2009) and Vijay Singh (2008). When you see the list of previous winners, it certainly indicates that the cream certainly rises to the top.

This course has 11 par 4’s, four par 3’s and three par 5’s. The greens are wide and forgiving and should suit the big hitters. They also offer players the opportunity to be aggressive so be on the lookout for guys with good GIR, strokes gained tee to green and strokes gained putting stats.  With 11 par 4’s, par 4 scoring is another stat worth checking. There will also be a particular emphasis on birdie average as this event has been a bit of a birdie fest over the years.

The fairways here are quite wide and forgiving so driving accuracy will not be as important as driving distance. The par 5 second and 18th will be reachable in two for most of the field so there will be a particular emphasis on ball striking and distance.

 

Jason Day 6/1 Deutsche Bank Championship

Jason Day 6/1

It’s hard to leave out Day after yet another superb performance last week and playing with such dominance over the last few weeks. After last week’s win at The Barclays that makes it four wins for Jason Day this season. He won the Farmers Insurance Open back in February beating J.B. Holmes in a playoff and followed that with a superb win at The RBC Canadian Open, a win at The PGA in Whistling Straits and a win last week in Plainfield which makes that three wins in his last four starts.

Day has played well here in the past finishing T7 last year, T13 in 2013, third in 2011 and second in 2010. He ranks third in driving distance, ninth in GIR, eighth in strokes gained tee to green and second in strokes gained putting. He also ranks first in par 3 scoring and second in par 4 scoring. With absolutely superb current form and good course form here at TPC Boston over the years, Jason Day is without a doubt the man to beat here this week.

 

Henrik Stenson 14/1 Deutsche Bank Championship 2015

Henrik Stenson 14/1

The Swede cones here after a great performance last week at The Barclays finishing solo second on 13 under for the tournament. He seems to be coming into some form just at the right time with a solo second last week, T25 at The PGA and a T6 at The WGC Bridgestone in his last three tournaments. Stenson has played well at this event in the past finishing T26 last year and a win here in 2013.

He also ticks a lot of statistical boxes averaging just under 300 yards off the tee and ranks 14th in driving accuracy. He ranks first in GIR, second in strokes gained tee to green and 22nd in strokes gained putting. He also ranks sixth in par 4 scoring and looks to be hitting form at just the right time. With a good history here and good current form, Stenson could have another good week here.

 

Bubba Watson 22/1 Deutsche Bank Championship 2015

Bubba Watson 22/1

Bubba is playing great golf at present and has a win and three top 3’s in his last seven events. He won the Travelers Championship beating Paul Casey in a playoff an followed that with a T13 at The Greenbrier, solo second at The RBC Canadian Open, solo second at The WGC Bridgestone, T21 at The PGA and a solo third last week at The Barclays. He has played well here at TPC Boston over the years with his best finishes coming in 2011 finishing T16 and T12 in 2006.

Watson should suit this course with his length and ranks second in driving distance averaging just over 316 yards off the tee, perfect for these wide fairways. He also ranks 23rd in GIR, first in strokes gained tee to green and fifth in birdie average. He ranks ninth in par 3 scoring, eighth in par 4 scoring and first in par 5 scoring. Bubba is in fine form at the moment and that could continue here at TPC Boston.

 

Brooks Koepka 40/1 Deutsche Bank Championship FedExCup Playoffs

Brooks Koepka 40/1

I wouldn’t be too concerned about Brooks missing the cut last week at The Barclays, in fact I think it could do him some good coming into this week after a bit of a rest last weekend. He is another player in fine form with five top 10’s and two top 20’s in his last seven starts. His good run of form started back at The Fedex St Jude where he finished T3 and followed that with a T18 in Chambers Bay, T10 at The Open Championship and a T18 at The RBC Canadian Open. He then had three top sixes in a row finishing T6 at The WGC Bridgestone, T5 at The PGA and T6 at The Wyndham.

I reckon Brooks should suit this course averaging 309 off the tee ranking seventh in driving distance, 11th in GIR, 22nd in strokes gained tee to green and 11th in strokes gained putting. He also ranks 17th in birdie average, sixth in par 4 scoring and fourth in par 5 scoring. Koepka should be well rested after a weekend off last week and should go well on a course that could suit his game.

 

Tony Finau 70/1 Deautsche Bank Championship FedExCup Playoffs

Tony Finau 70/1

The big hitting Tony Finau should be another player that could suit TPC Boston and comes here with ten top 25’s in his last 12 starts. He looks to be showing some great consistency over the few months and was right in the mix at The Barclays after the first two rounds. Finau’s good run of form began back at The Wellls Fargo where he finished T16. He followed that with a T19 in Colonial, T10 at The Byron Nelson, T8 at Memorial, T14 in Chambers Bay and T13 at The Greenbrier. Most recently, Finau finished T22 at The RBC Canadian Open, T10 at The PGA and T16 last week at The Barclays, which he lead after 54 holes.

He averages 309 off the tee ranking eighth in driving distance, 29th in strokes gained tee to green and seventh in birdie average. He also ranks 20th in par 4 scoring and 34th in par 5 scoring and looks to be in fine form coming to a course that could suit his game.

 

Final Selections –

Jason Day 3pts EW 6/1

Henrik Stenson 2pts EW 14/1

Bubba Watson 2pts EW 22/1

Brooks Koepka 1pt EW 40/1

Tony Finau 1pt EW 70/1

Total Staked = 18 pts

 

That’s all from me this season folks, I’m away on holidays for the next couple of weeks and will not be covering the last two FedexCup events. Ill be back for the first PGA Tour event of the new season in October.

Many thanks for reading my posts and best of luck for the last two events, lets finish on a high note this week!

Chat to you in October,

Doublebogey6

 

 

The Open Championship Betting Preview 2015

The Open Championship 2015 Betting Preview and Tips

The Old Course, St Andrews Links, Fife, Scotland

7,305 yards Par 72

The Open Championship takes place at The Old Course for the 28th time with the most recent editions taking place in 2005 and 2010. St Andrews is one of the oldest courses in the world and believed to be the home of golf because the game was first played there in the 15th century. It has two par 5’s, two par 3’s and 14 par 4’s. The par 5’s measure 568 yards (5th) and 618 yards (14th) and could be drivable in two depending on weather conditions. Some of the par 4’s could also be drivable namely the 352 yard 9th and the 348 yard 12th, which will also depend on wind and weather conditions.

This course also features a variety of typical links features with wide fairways, some of them are shared double fairways with plenty of deep grass and gorse bushes which run alongside them. Players that are long and straight off the tee will have a big advantage here.

One of the unique features of the Old Course is the large double greens. Seven greens are shared by two holes each, the 2nd paired with 16th, 3rd with 15th, all the way up to 8th and 10th. Only the 1st, 9th, 17th and 18th holes have their own greens. The Swilcan Bridge, spanning the first and 18th holes, has become a famous icon for golf around the world.

The Old Course has 112 bunkers, which will be its main defence and are all individually named and have their own unique story and history behind them. The two most famous are the 10 ft deep “Hell Bunker” on the 14th hole, and the “Road Hole Bunker” on the 17th hole. Countless professional golfers have seen their dreams of winning the Open Championship squandered by hitting their balls in those bunkers.

This course is favourable for punters having a bet on this tournament as there is plenty pf course history to work with. The Alfred Dunhill Links is played here every year on The European Tour so previous form at that event will be worth checking. Similar to The US Open at Chambers Bay, landing your ball in the right part of the greens will be important here as the greens are large, undulating and unpredictable in terms of bounces. Players that are good long distance putters should also have an advantage here.

The main areas of focus here are:

  • Previous form in 2005,2010, previous Open
  • Previous form at The Alfred Dunhill Links
  • Recent form and links form
  • Driving Distance/Accuracy
  • Strokes gained putting
  • Strokes gained tee to green
  • Approaches from 100-250 yards
  • Scrambling

 

Rickie Fowler 18/1 The Open Championship 2015 St Andrews

Rickie Fowler 18/1

Rickie was outstanding in Gullane last week at The Scottish Open. He played a fabulous approach shot into 18 and rolled in the birdie to clinch victory by one stroke over fellow American Matt Kuchar. Despite a poor performance in Chambers Bay, the young American has proven to be somewhat of a Links specialist over the last few years and has a solid Open Championship record.

His first appearance at The Open was here at St Andrews in 2010, where he finished in a respectable T14. He finished T5 in 2011 in Sandwich at a very tricky Royal St Georges and followed that with a respectable T31 at Lytham and St Annes. Last year in Hoylake, Fowler finished T2 with Sergio Garcia on 15 under in pretty tricky conditions in the final round, which didn’t seem to bother him. He also finished T8 last year in Royal Aberdeen at The Scottish Open.

Fowler also played well at The Irish Open recently, where he finished in a respectable T30. He started the tournament with two 71’s and had a poor third round 76 but bounced back with a 73 in round 4 in very tricky conditions. He has had a great season so far with a win at The Players, T9 at The WGC Matchplay and a respectable T12 at The Masters.

Statwise Rickie ranks 47th in driving distance, first in approaches from 200-225, fourth in approaches from 75-100 and second in approaches from 150-175. With a good record at The Open and a good performance here in the past, Rickie will be feeding off the good vibes from Gullane last week and should be right in the mix here at St Andrews.

 

Henrik Stenson 22/1 The Open Championship 2015 St Andrews

Henrik Stenson 22/1

After an impressive solo second in Germany recently, Henrik Stenson looks to be peaking just at the right time in terms of form. He has played well at The Old Course in the past finishing T3 at The Open in 2010 finishing on eight under par for the tournament. His record in The Open has been good over the last few years finishing T3 in Royal Birkdale in 2008, T13 in Turnberry in 2009, T3 in St Andrews in 2010 and solo second in Muirfield in 2013. He seems to have recovered from an illness he got just before The Masters and has signs of coming back into some good form.

As well as his solo second in Germany, he also had a good week at The Nordea Masters finishing T13 and was right in the mix after shooting an opening round 65 in Chambers Bay, but sadly fell off the pace and finished a respectable T27. He showed some great early season form finishing T4 at the WGC Cadillac, solo fourth at The Valspar and solo second at The Arnold Palmer Invitational.

Statswise, Stenson could be a good fit here ranking seventh in driving accuracy, first in GIR, seventh in strokes gained tee to green and 15th in strokes gained putting. He also ranks seventh in approaches from 125-150, 16th in approaches from 200 yards, second in approaches from 175-200 and 13th in par 4 scoring. With a great record at The Open over the years and decent current form, Henrik Stenson looks to be a good bet here at The Old Course.

 

Louis Oosthuizen 22/1 The Open Championship 2015 St Andrews

Louis Oosthuizen 22/1

Louis seems to be injury free and playing great golf at the moment. He started poorly in Chambers Bay shooting a disappointing 77 in round one but bounced back very well shooting 66,66,67 finishing T2 on four under for the tournament, which included five birdies in a row on the back nine on Sunday. Louis also played well at the WGC Matchplay finishing T5, T7 at The RBC Heritage and a T19 at The Masters.

He has a great record at St Andrews over the last few years. He won The Open here in 2010 by an impressive seven strokes over his nearest contender Lee Westwood and finished in a respectable T19 at Lytham and St Annes. He also has a great record at The Alfred Dunhill Links, which is also played at St Andrews, finishing T6 in 2014 and T5 in 2011.

Louis is averaging 295 yards off the tee ranking 41st in driving distance, 40th in GIR and 27th in strokes gained tee to green. He also ranks 19th in approaches from 175-200 yards, fifth in approaches from 200-225 and second in approaches from 50-75 yards. The South African has a lot of experience around this course and has already shown that he can contend in the majors so far this year.

 

Shane Lowry 45/1 The Open Championship 2015

 Shane Lowry 45/1

After a great start last week in Gullane, opening with rounds of 66,66 in rounds one and two, Lowry fell off the pace shooting 72,71 over the weekend to finish T31 for the tournament. Despite the average performance over the weekend, his game looks to be in great shape especially off the tee and around the greens. His first appearance in an Open Championship was here at St Andrews in 2010, where he finished in a respectable T37 for the tournament. Shane is no stranger to links golf and won The Irish Open in Baltray in 2009 as an amateur beating Robert Rock in a playoff. He has been improving steadily every year finishing T32nd in 2013 in Muirfield and recorded a top 10 at Hoylake last year finishing solo ninth. He also has great form at The Alfred Dunhill Links over the last few years finishing T6 last year and T3 in 2013 so he will be familiar with the layout of The Old Course.

Lowry has been showing some great form this season with a super performance at Chambers Bay at The US Open finishing T9 on level par for the tournament. He also had a good week at The BMW PGA in Wentworth finishing T6 on 11 under for the week. Shane has also played well on other links layouts over the last few years with three top 15’s in The Scottish Open since 2011 finishing T14 at Castle Stuart, T11 in 2012 again at Castle Stuart and T4 last year at Royal Aberdeen. Lowry also finished T10 at The Johnnie Walker at Gleneagles in 2013. With great form at St Andrews and great current form, Shane Lowry looks to be superb value at 45/1.

 

Branden Grace 45/1 The Open Championship 2015 St Andrews

Branden Grace 45/1

With the exception of one erratic tee shot, Branden Grace could have been hoisting the US Open trophy up in the air on Sunday and not Jordan Spieth. He played steadily all week long opening with a 69 and following that with a 67,70,71 to finish T4 and three under par in total. The South African has been showing some solid form over the last few months. He finished T11 at The BMW PGA at Wentworth, T9 at The WGC Matchplay and T7 at The RBC Heritage.

His best finish at The Open Championship was last year in Hoylake, where he finished a respectable T36. Although his Open form isn’t exactly jumping off the page, Grace is no stranger to links golf and has played well here at The Old Course in the past.

He won the Alfred Dunhill Links here in 2012 by two strokes over Thorbjorn Olesen on 22 under par and also finished T25 last year so he is very familiar with this course. He also nearly won the Scottish Open in Castle Stuart in 2013, but was beaten by Phil Mickelson in a playoff and finished second. Statswise he ranks 18th in driving distance hitting an average of 300 yards off the tee. He also ranks fifth in GIR, ninth in putts per GIR and 10th in approaches from 150-175. After a near miss at The US Open, returning to The Old Course could see Branden stir up some good memories and get right into contention again.

 

Tommy Fleetwood 80/1 The Open Championship 2015 St Andrews

Tommy Fleetwood 80/1

Tommy has been having a steady season so far with four top 11’s and two top 30’s in his last six starts. He was right in the mix last week at Gullane, but couldn’t quite get going in the final round shooting a final round 72 finishing T10 for the tournament. He also a good week at The BMW International in Germany recently finishing T11 and finished in a respectable T27 in Chambers Bay the week before. He also finished T21 at The Irish Open in Royal County Down, T6 at The BMW PGA Championship in Wentworth and T5 at The WGC Matchplay. Tommy has shown great form on links courses over the last few years, particularly at The Alfred Dunhill Links finishing T2 in 2014, solo fifth in 2013 and T5 in 2011. His only European Tour victory came at Gleneagles, where he won the Johnnie Walker Championship in a playoff against Stephen Gallacher and Ricardo Gonzalez.

Statswise Tommy is averaging just under 300 yards off the tee and ranks 27th in driving distance. He also ranks fifth in GIR hitting 73% of greens in regulation on The European Tour so far this season. He has a proven track record at The Old Course at St Andrews and could be a big contender here at a very generous price.

 

Final selections –

Rickie Fowler 18/1 2pts EW

Henrik Stenson 22/1 2pts EW

Louis Oosthuizen 22/1 1.5 pts EW

Shane Lowry 45/1 1 pt EW

Branden Grace 45/1 1 pt EW

Tommy Fleetwood 80/1 1pt EW

Total staked = 17 pts

 

Good luck and enjoy the golf,

 

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