Arnold Palmer Invitational Betting Preview 2016

Arnold Palmr Invitational Betting Preview 2016

Bay Hill Club & Lodge, Orlando, Florida

Par 72, 7,419 yards

The Course

The next stop on the PGA Tour is The Arnold Palmer Invitational in Bay Hill. Tiger Woods has won this event an impressive eight times, but won’t be playing this week. This course is a par 72 and is a lengthy 7,419 yards. The course was designed by Dick Wilson in 1961, and illustrates his typical approach of slightly elevating the putting surfaces to improve visibility and drainage. The course covers 270 acres and lies between the community of Bay Hill, Florida and the Butler Chain of Lakes. Owned by Arnold Palmer since 1974, it has hosted the annual Arnold Palmer Invitational since 1979.

This course is a typical Florida setup with plenty of water and greenside bunkers coming into play. The course layout was changed in 2010 from a par 70 to a par 72 and has a total of four par 5’s, four par 3’s and 10 par 4’s. The reason for this was to allow the players to give themselves more opportunities to make birdies. The course is situated along the Butler Chain of Lakes and has a tendency to get windy. The fairways are quite forgiving here so driving accuracy isn’t too much of an issue. Like a lot of the Florida courses we have seen over the last few weeks, water hazards come into play on roughly 9 of the 18 holes.

There are four par 3’s which are amongst the most difficult on the PGA Tour so par 3 scoring will be an important here. Good par 5 scoring stats will certainly be a big plus along with good ball striking, scrambling, putting and GIR. Good current form and good form around Bay Hill are also a big plus this week.

 

Adam Scott 8/1 Arnold Palmer Invitational Betting Preview 2016

Adam Scott 8/1

The big question on everyone’s lips this week is can Adam Scott do the hat trick and make it three in a row? In my opinion, yes. With two wins and a second in his last three events the Aussie is in absolutely flying form and is without a doubt the favourite here this week.

He played brilliantly in Riviera and just came up short despite chipping in on the 18th for a birdie to finish T2. He followed that with a win at The Honda shooting 70,65,66,70 to finish nine under for the tournament. He then had another great week at The WGC Cadillac in Doral recording his second win in two weeks finishing one clear after a miraculous up and down on the 18th. He has played well at Bay Hill in the past finishing T3 in 2014 which included an opening round course record 62.

Scott looks like he could suit this course ranking ninth in driving distance, sixth in GIR and first in SGTTG. He also ranks ninth in par 3 scoring and first in par 5 scoring which are two stats that will stand to him here at Bay Hill this week.

 

Henrik Stenson 12//1 Arnold Palmer Invitational Betting Preview 2016

Henrik Stenson 12/1

The Swede had a good performance at The Valspar last week shooting 71,70,70,72 on his way to a respectable T11 finish. He also had a good week in Doral finishing in a respectable T28, which would have been a lot better if it weren’t for a third round 76. Stenson started the year off with two top 6’s in the Desert Swing finishing T3 in Abu Dhabi and T6 the following week in Dubai.

He has a superb record around Bay Hill finishing second last year, fifth in 2014, T8 in 2013 and T15 in 2012. Stenson ticks a lot of boxes statswise here ranking fourth in stroke average, 22nd in driving accuracy, 13th in GIR and third in strokes gained putting. With some decent performances over the last few weeks and a great record here, Henrik Stenson could right the wrongs of last year and get the job done this week.

 

Ryan Moore 33/1 Arnold Palmer Invitational Betting Preview 2016

Ryan Moore 33/1

After another solid performance at The Valspar last week, I’ve decided to give Ryan Moore another go here in Bay Hill. He added another top 10 finish to the list last week finishing solo third at Copperhead making that five top 11’s in seven starts. He started the season with a T10 at The Frys, T10 at The CIMB Classic, T11 in Phoenix and a solo 10th in Riviera at The Northern Trust Open which included a superb ace on the 16th in the final round.

Moore has played well here in the past finishing fourth here in 2012 and 12th in 2011. Statswise he ranks 30th in driving distance, 18th in SGTTG, second in par 3 scoring and ninth in par 4 scoring. If he putts well here this week he could be right in the mix.

 

Brandt Snedeker 40/1 Arnold Palmer Invitational Betting Preview 2016

Brandt Snedeker 40/1

It seems Sneds has recovered from sore ribs after withdrawing from the WGC Cadillac in Doral a couple of weeks and could come back with a bang here at Bay Hill. He has had a superb season so far which began with a T17 at The Frys and a win at The Franklin Templeton with partner Jason Dufner.

He started 2016 off with a T3 at The Hyundai Tournament of Champions, lost out in a playoff at The Sony in Hawaii and had a superb win in Torrey Pines which included a superb final round 69 in almost unplayable conditions. He’s gone a bit quiet lately finishing T33 in Phoenix and T35 in Pebble but can come back to good form on a course he has played well on in the past.

He finished 13th here last year and eighth in 2014 and ticks a lot of boxes statistically. He is averaging just over 295 off the tee and ranks sixth in SGP. He also ranks 12th in par 3 scoring and ninth in par 4 scoring. If he’s fit and healthy he should be right in the mix.

 

Jason Kokrak 60/1 Arnold Palmer Invitational Betting Preview 2016

Jason Kokrak 60/1

Kokrak came close to victory in Riviera and played solidly all week. He began with a 68 in round one and followed that with a 64,70,68 to finish 14 under just falling one short of winner Bubba Watson. He has had a mixed bag of form this season finishing T12 at The Sanderson Farms and followed that with a T17 at The OHL Classic. He started 2016 with a respectable T25 at The Farmers in Torrey pines and had another decent week in Pebble with a T30 finish.

He’s gone a bit cold over the last couple of weeks but has a great record here finishing sixth here last year and fourth in 2014. Kokrak is a huge hitter averaging 310 off the tee ranking seventh in driving distance. With four par 5’s and a good record over the last two years, Kokrak can go well here at a big price.

 

Final Selections –

Adam Scott 8/1 2pts EW

Henrik Stenson 12/1 2pts EW

Ryan Moore 33/1 1pt EW

Brandt Snedeker 40/1 1pt EW

Jaosn Kokrak 60/1 1pt EW

Total Staked = 14 pts

 

Paddypower paying 7 places this week. 

 

Good luck and enjoy the golf,

 

Doublebogey6

 

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Shell Houston Open Betting Preview 2015

Shell Houston Open 2015 betting preview 2015

Golf Club of Houston, Humble, Texas

7,441 yards, par 72

Last week at The Valero Texas Open –

How tricky did TPC San Antonio look last week? The players struggled around for the four days in very windy conditions. Jimmy Walker was a class act from start to finish shooting 71,67,69,70 on his way to an 11 under par victory, four clear of his nearest challenger Jordan Spieth.

As for last week’s selections, we ended up with a nice each way return on Daniel Summerhays at 66/1, who finished T4th along with Chesson Hadley. That gave us a little bit of profit and a total profit of +191.93 for the season so far. Let’s keep it going this week in Houston and tee us up nicely for The Masters next week!

 

The Course

The Golf Club of Houston was designed by Reese Jones and was established in 2003. Since 2007, the tournament has been held the week before the Masters, giving the players one last chance to get into the field through a win. This course is a decent test measuring just short of 7,500 yards.

It is set up to replicate Augusta for next week and has a particular emphasis on length. For example, the four par 5’s on this course all measure over 550 yards and will require a decent drive if players are going for the green in two. The par 4’s will also require length with the 5th, 6th, 17th and 18th all measuring over 460 yards. Players that average between 295 and 300+ yards off the tee will be leaving themselves between an eight iron and a wedge into some of the longer par 4’s.

The main stats to consider here is obviously length, along with good par 3, par 4, par 5 scoring stats. The greens here are also quite tricky (like Augusta) with tight banks and plenty of run off areas so be on the lookout for guys with good greens in regulation stats.  The greens here will be pretty quick measuring roughly 13 on the stimp so strokes gained putting will be another stat to consider on this course.

 

Patrick Reed 16/1 Shell Houston Open

Patrick Reed 16/1

After taking a week off last week, Reed will come to Houston feeling rested and confident after coming close to winning the Valspar a couple of weeks ago. He got into a playoff with Jordan Spieth and Sean O Hair and put on a masterclass with his shortgame. He got up and down out from everywhere and putted superbly, but was beaten by Ryder Cup team mate Spieth after he holed a superb 30 footer on the third playoff hole for a birdie and the win. I believe the confident Texan will take that good form into this week in Houston.

His current form is good with a win, two top 10’s and two top 25’s in his last seven events. He won the Hyundai Tournament of Champions in Kapalua in early January and continued that good run of form with a T24 at The Humana, T29 at Pebble Beach, T7 at The Honda and a T23 at Doral.

Reed is averaging 290 off the tee and ranks 13th in strokes gained tee to green, 11th in strokes gained putting, fourth in approaches from 250-275 and 27th in approaches from 150-175, which Is a good stat for approaches into the long par 4’s. He also ranks 23rd in par 3 scoring, fifth in par 4 scoring and 19th in par 5 scoring. After coming close a couple of weeks ago, Reed could go one better this week and be right in the mix come Sunday.

 

JB Holmes 25/1 Shell Houston Open

J.B. Holmes 25/1

With three top 10’s and a top 25 in his last five events, J.B. Holmes is another player that took last week off and should be well rested and ready to contend in Houston. Despite a missed cut at Bay Hill, Holmes has been playing very well over the last few weeks and came close to winning at Torrey Pines, but was beaten in a playoff by Jason Day at The Farmers Insurance Open at the beginning of February.

He continued that good run of form and finished T10 at Pebble Beach, which included a superb first round 64. He then had another good week at The Northern Trust Open finishing T22, which could have been a lot better if it weren’t for a disappointing final round 76. He led after round one in Doral after opening with an impressive 62 and went on to finish solo 2nd.

Holmes has played well here in the past finishing T12 last year, T8 in 2012, T4 in 2011 and P2 in 2009 when he lost in a playoff to Paul Casey. Statswise he ranks 11th in driving distance averaging 303 off the tee, ninth in strokes gained tee to green and 30th in approaches from 150-175,which is a good stat for approaches into the long par 4’s. He also ranks 35th in par 3 scoring, 30th in par 5 scoring and seventh in par 4 birdie or better leaders. With great current form and a good history here, Holmes will be one to watch.

 

Louis Oosthuizen 28/1 Shell Houston Open

Louis Oosthuizen 28/1

The South African has only played in a handful of events this year on The PGA Tour and has been showing glimpses of good form. He had a good week at Doral shooting 71,74,67,73 on his way to a solo 6th. He then missed the cut at The Valspar, but bounced back very well at The Arnold Palmer in Bay Hill finishing T9th. Louis is a horse for the course here and has played well in the past finishing T10 in 2013, solo 3rd in 2012 and T16 in 2011.

He is a decent driver of the ball averaging 294 off the tee and hitting just short of 70% greens in regulation in his last four events on the PGA Tour. After finishing solo 3rd in 2012, he went on to get into a playoff with Bubba Watson in The Masters the following week so keep an eye on Louis here this week.

 

Jason Kokrak 40/1 Shell Houston Open 2015

Jason Kokrak 40/1

Jason Kokrak is a player that could really suit this track with his length. He was unlucky not to finish with another top 10 last week in Texas where he carded five bogeys in his final round to finish with a two over 74. Despite that, he still finished in a respectable T11 for the tournament. He has been playing well over the last couple of weeks finishing with a T7 at The Valspar and a T6 at The Arnold Palmer. Kokrak has played well here in the past finishing solo 9th in 2013 and comes to The Golf Club of Houston in much better form this time around.

Statswise he ranks 12th in driving distance averaging 304 yards off the tee and 49th in both strokes gained tee to green and strokes gained putting. His approach stats are also good ranking 16th in approaches from 175-200 and 25th in approaches from 150-175. He also ranks seventh in par 5 scoring and 32nd in par 4 scoring. With Kokrak’s current form and length, he could be a serious danger here at an attractive price.

 

Sean Stefani top 10 finis Shell Houston Open 4/1

Top 10 Finish –

Shawn Stefani 4/1

Shawn Stefani has been playing well this season with three top 15 finishes earlier this year. He played well at The OHL Classic finishing solo 2nd, T6 at The Sony Open in Hawaii and a T15 at The Humana Challenge at the end of January. Most recently, he had a good week at The Valspar finishing T17 and followed that with a T21 at Bay Hill. Last week, he finished in a respectable T26 at The Texas Open, which could have been a lot better if it weren’t for a disappointing first round 79.

Stefani played very well here last year finishing solo 5th on 10 under par for the tournament. He ranks 45th in driving distance, 27th in GIR and sixth in approaches from 200-225, which is a good stat for approaches into the par 5’s. He also ranks 13th in par 5 scoring and 38th in par 4 scoring. With a good finish here last year and good current form, Stefani is more than capable of finishing in the top 10 this week.

 

Final selections –

Patrick Reed 1.5pts EW 16/1

J.B. Holmes 1.5pts EW 25/1

Louis Oosthuizen 1 pt EW 28/1

Jason Kokrak 1 pt EW 40/1

Shawn Stefani 2 pts Top 10 finish 4/1

Total staked = 12 pts

 

Good luck and enjoy the golf,

Doublebogey6

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