TPC Deere Run, Silvis, Illinois
7,268 yards, par 71
Over the years, some big names have dominated this event namely the in form Jordan Spieth, Steve Stricker and Zach Johnson. TPC Deere Run is a 7,268 yard par 71 and has three par 5’s, four par 3’s and 11 par 4’s with the average winning score being roughly 18 under par. With the three par 5’s all reachable in two and the fairly easy par 4’s, there will be a lot of birdies on offer, which explains the extremely low scoring over the years. The course sits along rolling woodlands alongside a rock river and has some small ponds and ravines. It also has rolling fairways that are quite generous off the tee so driving accuracy won’t be hugely important.
The course has undergone elevation changes on several holes. The 14th is a downhill par 4 measuring just 358 yards and can be drivable in the right conditions. There is also water present on five holes, but shouldn’t pose too much of a problem for the players. This course is relatively easy but will demand good putting and accurate approach shots in order to make birdies. The key stats to look at here are approaches from 125-150, par 4 scoring, strokes gained putting, GIR, previous history and current form.
Zach Johnson 9/1
There is no other player in the field with a better record at TPC Deere Run than Zach Johnson. He has a win here in 2012, second last year, second in 2013, third in 2011 and second again in 2009. He has been showing some great form recently finishing solo sixth at The Travelers, solo fifth at the Byron Nelson, T19 in Colonial and T13 at The Players Championship in Sawgrass.
Johnson also ticks a lot of boxes statistically ranking ninth in driving accuracy, 16th in strokes gained tee to green, 10th in approaches from 50-125 yards and 17th in approaches from 150-175, which are two good stats for approaches into the par 4’s. He also ranks 35th in par 4 scoring and 34th in par 5 scoring. With great current form and a great history here, Johnson is playing well enough to record his second win here at TPC Deere Run this week.
Kevin Kisner 16/1
We came close to landing Kisner at 30/1 last week at The Greenbrier, where he sadly lost in a playoff to David Hearn and Danny Lee. Despite that, he played very well in the final round shooting a superb final round 64. That sadly makes him 0/3 in playoffs this season, however a win doesn’t look to far away and it could very well come this week at TPC Deere Run, where he finished in a respectable T20 last year.
Kisner has a further five top 12’s in his last seven starts and lost two playoffs against, the first of which came at The RBC Heritage losing to Jim Furyk and second was at The Players Championship losing to Rickie Fowler. He followed that with a T5 at The Crowne Plaza Invitational in Colonial, which included three 67’s and a 69. He then finished T8 at The Memorial and followed that with a T12 at The US Open in Chambers Bay.
Staswise he ranks 18th in driving accuracy, 40th in strokes gained tee to green and 14th in approaches from 225-250, which is a good stat for approaches into the par 5’s. He also ranks 10th in scrambling, 24th in par 3 scoring, 22nd in par 4 scoring and 27th in par 5 scoring. With great current form and missing out on three playoffs recently, this could be the week Kisner gets his long awaited win.
Brian Harman 33/1
The 2014 champion comes here in good form this week after playing well recently at The Travelers finishing solo third and was unlucky not to win. He was very steady throughout the week shooting rounds of 66,65,65,69 to finish 15 under for the tournament. Harman also played well at The Crowne Plaza Invitational recently shooting rounds of 68,66,69,68 to finish T10 on nine under for the week.
He also played well at The Players finishing T8. He has played well here in the past with a win here last year and a T19 finish in 2012. Harman ranks 49th in strokes gained putting and ninth in approaches from 250 yards, which is a good stat for approaches into the par 5’s. With good previous performances here and decent current form, Brian Harman is great value here at 33/1.
Tony Finau 33/1
Finau has easily been one of the most consistent players on tour over the last few weeks and looks to be right on the cusp of a win any day now. He put together another steady week at The Greenbrier last week finishing T13 on ten under par for the tournament. Finau also had another respectable performance at The Travelers, where he finished T25. He has been very consistent finishing inside the top 25 in seven of his last eight starts. He played well at Chambers Bay finishing T14, T8 at Memorial, T10 at The Byron Nelson, T19 at Colonial and T16 at The Wells Fargo in Quail Hollow.
He ranks seventh in driving distance,33rd in strokes gained tee to green, eighth in approaches from 150-175, 32nd in approaches from 75-100 and 35th in par 4 scoring. He also ranks 43rd in par 5 scoring and 47th in par 3 scoring. Finau is on a great run of form and I don’t see any reason why that shouldn’t continue here this week.
Final Selections –
Zach Johnson 9/1 2pts EW
Kevin Kisner 16/1 2pts EW
Brian Harman 33/1 1pt EW
Tony Finau 33/1 1pt EW
Total staked = 12 pts
Good luck and enjoy the golf,
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