6,987 Yards, Par 71
The PGA Tour returns to El Camaleon for its tenth year for The OHL Classic at Mayakoba. Previous winners here include Graeme McDowell (2015), Charley Hoffman (2014), Harris English (2013), John Huh (2012), Johnson Wagner (2011) and Cameron Beckman (2010).
This course was designed by Greg Norman and is classed as one of the easiest courses on The PGA Tour. It has three par 5’s, four par 3’s and 12 par 4’s. The fairways here are quite large and forgiving but there are hazards to be wary of. It winds between three different landscapes – Tropical jungle, dense mangroves, sand lined oceanfront and thick vegetation.
Looking at previous winners here, it appears that accuracy off the tee is a key indicator along with GIR. Key stats on this course are driving accuracy, GIR and par 4 scoring. Good wind players will also fare well at this venue as it’s located on the Caribbean Sea. It may also be worth looking at players who have played well on other similar seaside courses such as Waialae Country Club, host of the Sony Open in Hawaii and Harbour Town Golf Links which hosts the RBC Heritage.
Graeme McDowell won last year beating Jason Bohn and Russell Knox in a playoff. Gmac hit an absolutely superb second shot into the first playoff hole and made the birdie to seal victory. This is traditionally a very low scoring event so expect plenty of birdies.
The Scot has started the season with two top tens in a row and has to be fancied here. He had a good week in Malaysia finishing in a respectable T10 at The CIMB Classic and hit over 80% of greens in regulation and followed that with a T9 at the WGC HSBC in Shanghai which could have been a lot better if it weren’t for a final round 74. He had a superb win at the Travelers Championship and didn’t shoot worse than a 68 to finish 14 under in total. He followed that with a T15 at The Deutsche Bank and a T17 at The BMW.
Knox has a decent record here over the years and came close to a win last year but got knocked out in a playoff against Graeme McDowell and Jason Bohn. He has the game to suit this course ranking fourth in driving accuracy, 24th in GIR and fifth in par scoring. He has to be one to watch here this week.
John Rahm 18/1
The young Spaniard has been playing some great golf since turning pro and started the season with two top 15’s in his last two starts. He had a good week at the Safeway open finishing T15 and followed that with another T15 in Vegas last week after shooting four rounds in the 60’s including an opening round 65. He showed some great form at the end of last season finishing T3 at The Quicken Loans, T2 in Canada and a T14 at The John Deere.
He played well here last year finishing T10 and didn’t shoot worse than a 70 throughout the tournament finishing 11 under in total. Statswise he ranks 14th in GIR, sixth in SGTTG and 10th in SG off the tee. After a good start to the season and a decent performance last year Rahm looks a decent shout here.
Piercy had a super start in Vegas last week but fell behind in round 4 finishing T24 on 12 under after a final round 71. He started well with two 68’s and a 65 so he will take that into this week. Despite a slight dip in form in China, Piercy has started the season well and comes here in good form. He had a good week at The Safeway finishing T3 and followed that with a T10 at The CIMB in Malaysia. He had some great finishes towards the end of last season with a T2 at The US Open, a solo second at The WGC Bridgestone, T22 at The Barclays and a T24 at the BMW.
He has played well here in the past finishing T16 in 2014 and T20 in 2009. He ranks fifth in SG off the tee, ninth in SG approach to the green and tenth in SGTTG. If he can get four solid rounds together he could be a big danger man here.
Johnson Wagner 60/1
The 2011 champion is playing some decent golf lately and started with an impressive T3 at The Safeway a couple of weeks ago. He shot 65,67,70,70 on his way to a 16 under par total and finished last season very strongly. He finished T5 at The John Deere, T5 at The Wyndham and T22 at The Barclays. He seems to like this course and has a super record here at El Camaleon with a win in 2011, T16 in 2014 and a T8 last year.
Statswise he ranks 22nd in SGP, 37th in GIR, 33rd in par 4 scoring and 34th in par 3 scoring. Wagner clearly likes this venue and looks incredibly good value at 60/1.
Russell Knox 14/1 1pt EW
John Rahm 18/1 1pt EW
Scott Piercy 28/1 0.5 pts EW
Johnson Wagner 60/1 0.5 pts EW
Total staked = 6 pts
Good luck and enjoy the golf,
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