Farmers Insurance Open Betting Preview 2018

Farmers Insurance Open Betting Preview 2018The Courses:   

Torrey Pines GC, San Diego, California

Torrey Pines sits on the coastal cliffs overlooking the Pacific Ocean in the community of La Jolla, just south of Torrey Pines State Reserve. There are two courses played this week both of which were designed by William F. Bell.  

The South Course was redesigned by Rees Jones in 2001, and is now 7,698 yard par 72. The tournament uses both courses for the first two rounds and the South Course for the final two rounds. It hosted the 2008 U.S. Open on the South Course where Tiger Woods beat Rocco Mediate in a playoff. The man himself makes his 2018 debut this week on a course he has so many good memories on with seven wins in total. The question is, will punters be backing him at 22/1?  

North Course 7,258 Yards, par 72  

This is the easier of the two courses and roughly measures around 550 yards less than The South Course. It has four par 5’s, four par 3’s and 10 par fours. It is situated along the coastal cliffs of the Pacific Ocean and has a tendency to get windy.  

The fairways are a narrower and will be tricky to hit so driving accuracy will be a big plus. The greens on both courses are poa annua greens so good poa annua putters will be worth considering.  

South Course 7,698 Yards, par 72   

The South Course is played in three of the four rounds and tends to be pose a much stiffer challenge than the North course. It has four par 5’s and four par 3’s and will certainly favour the longer hitters on TOUR.  

The fairways here are a little wider and more forgiving than the North Course but length and power will be a huge advantage.    

The main stats to consider are good poa annua putters, driving distance, par 4 scoring, good current form and good previous form on this course. The total driving stat is also important, as missing the fairway can be extremely costly. There are a lot of slopes and greenside bunkers around the greens so good GIR and scrambling stats will be required.   

 

Jon Rahm 15/2 Farmers Insurance Open Betting Preview 2018Jon Rahm 15/2  

Rahm is in fine fettle and comes back to the site of his first PGA Tour title where he won by three strokes last year after holing a phenomenal 60ft putt for an eagle on the 18th green. The Spaniard has been playing superb over the last three or four months finishing 3,4,5,7,1 in his last five events of the season including a win at the DP World in Dubai in November.  

He comes here on the back of a second and a win so far in 2018 and even though he’s a measly 15/2, I’m still willing to nail my colours to the mast based on the fact that I think this course is right up his street.  

Only for the fact that he missed a few putts on Saturday in round three, he would’ve won by three or four last week in California. He played well throughout the week and opened with a very impressive 62 and followed that with two more 67’s and a 70 in round three. He played very solidly the week before in Kapalua finishing solo second which included a 67,69 over the weekend.    

Rahm looks very well suited to this course averaging just under 300 yards off the tee. He ranks sixth in SGTTG, fifth in SG off the tee, 23rd in scrambling and first in par 5 scoring. All in all its hard to bet against the in-form Spaniard here.    

 

Tony Finau 33/1 Farmers Insurance Open Betting Preview 2018Tony Finau 33/1  

Tony has been a player I’ve kept in mind for this event over the last few weeks. He has been playing well since the start of the season back in October with form figures of 32,16,11,26,2 in his last five starts. At the Safeway Open back in October, Finau shot rounds of 70,65,71,69 to post 13 under par to finish solo second. He followed that with a T26 at the CJ Cup, T11 at the WGC HSBC Champions in China and a T16 at the Shriners Open in Vegas which included three 69’s in a row.  

Finau started 2018 off with a respectable T26 at the Sony Open in Hawaii which included three 67’s. He is no stranger to playing well on tough, windy courses over the last few years finishing T9 in Kapalua last year, T27 at the Open in Birkdale last year, T18 at the Open in 2016 in Troon and a win at the blustery Puerto Rico Open in 2016.  

He has a good record here in Torrey Pines finishing T24 in 2015, T18 in 2016 and T4 last year. Big hitting Tony ticks the boxes here averaging just under 330 off the tee ranking second in driving distance. He also ranks ninth in SGTTG, eighth in SG approaches to the green and 18th in par 5 scoring. At 33’s he looks great value here.  

 

Ollie Schneiderjans 40/1 Farmers Insurance Open Betting Preview 2018Ollie Schneiderjans 40/1 

The big hitting youngster arrives to California after taking a week off last week and should be feeling nicely fresh. He has been in great form over the last few weeks finishing 17,23,19,MC,7 in his last five starts. He had a good week at the Safeway Open finishing T17 and followed that with a T23 at the CIMB Classic and a T19 at the CJ Cup in Korea.  

In his first event of 2018 he started strongly with a T7 at the Sony open in Hawaii shooting rounds of 66,65,67,68 on his way to a 14 under par total.   

Schneiderjans has shown he can play well on windy setups finishing second in Sedgefield CC last year at the Wyndham Championship where he was 1 stroke behind the winner Henrik Stenson. He also finished 12th at the Open in St Andrews in 2015 and finished third in Harbour Town at the RBC Heritage last April so he’s no stranger to windy courses.  

He played very solid here last year where he shot two 69’s and two 71’s to finish T9 on eight under for the tournament. Statswise he is averaging 306 off the tee (31st in driving distance) which is a big plus especially for the South Course. Given he is playing well and clearly has good form on exposed courses, Schneiderjans looks worth chancing here at 40/1.

 

Kyle Stanley 50/1 Farmers Insurance Open Betting Preview 2018Kyle Stanley 50/1  

Stanley has been having a good season so far and is a real horse for the course here at Torrey Pines. He has gone 21,19,5,30,10 in his last five starts and looks to be trending in the right direction.  

He started the season with a respectable T21 at the CIMB Classic and followed that with a T19 at the CJ Cup. The American had a great week at the WGC-HSBC Champions at the tricky SheshanGC back in November finishing T5 on eight under par in total shooting rounds of 71,68,69,72.    

Stanley then started 2018 in Kapalua at the Sentry TOC where he didn’t seem to take to the course finishing last in 30th, but he did bounce back well with an impressive T10 at The Sony. He started with an opening round 64 and followed that with 67,65,71 to post 13 under.  

Stanley has a good record in Torrey over the last few years and came close to victory in 2012.He had a healthy three shot lead on the 18th tee and ended up taking a disappointing triple bogey after finding water short of the 18th green and went on to lose a playoff to Brandt Snedeker. Despite that collapse, Stanley seems to like this course finishing T25 in 2016 and T14 last year and looks great value to have a good week here.  

 

 

Final selections – Most bookmakers paying 7 places  

Jon Rahm 1pt EW 

Tony Finau 1pt EW 

Ollie Schneiderjans 0.5pts EW 

Kyle Stanley 0.5pts EW 

Total staked = 6 pts 

 

Good luck and enjoy the golf.  

 

Doublebogey6 

 

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WGC Mexico Championship Betting Preview 2017

WGC Mexico Championship Betting Preview 2017Club de Golf Chapultepec, Mexico City

Par 71, 7,330 yards

It’s a bit of an unknown this week as we move from the familiar Blue Monster in Doral to Club de Golf Chapultepec in Mexico City for what’s now called the WGC Mexico Championship. The course was designed by Scottish brothers Willie and Alex Smith and opened in 1928 and was the permanent venue for the Mexico Open from 1944 to 1960. It has three par 5’s, two of which measure just over 600 yards, four par 3’s and 11 par 4’s.

It is a similar grass type to Riviera with kikuyu fairways and a mix of poa annua and bentgrass on the greens. The fairways are tree lined but not too narrow so accuracy shouldn’t be a massive issue. There are also some water hazards to contend with, one in particular is the par 3 17th with a lake protecting the front and left side of the green that could offer an interesting finish on Sunday.

The course looks fairly tight but not too difficult to score on. The Mexico Open was last played here in 2014 and was won by Columbia’s Óscar David Álvarez who finished 17 under par in total. The course is at high altitude making the ball travel further which could make things interesting. Two of the three par 5’s could be reachable in two and a couple of the par 4’s could be driveable by some of the bigger hitters so that could be a big advantage here. Players that hit it long, putt well and avoid the penal and sometimes deep greenside bunkers should score well.  A good indicator could be looking at players who had a good week in Riviera a couple of weeks ago as this course has a similar same grass type with kikuyu fairways and poa annua/bentgrass greens.

The weather looks a bit mixed with some showers forecast but the winds will be moderate so scoring should be good.

 

Dustin Johnson 13/2 WGC Mexico Championship Betting Preview 2017Dustin Johnson 13/2

DJ has been in superb form lately with a win and three top six’s in his last five starts. He had a good week in Riviera last time out shooting rounds of 66,66,64,71 on his way to a 17 under total and a five stroke victory. His good form began back in December at the Hero World Challenge where he finished T3 on 13 under for the tournament. He followed that with a T6 at the SBS Tournament of Champions and a solo third at the Pebble Beach Pro-Am. What stands out is his recent performances on poa annua/bentgrass greens with a win and a third in Riviera and Pebble Beach so that could be a big box ticked here.

Johnson could overpower this venue ranking second in driving distance, third in GIR, 31st in SGP, 12th in par 4 scoring and 16th in par 5 scoring. With excellent current form and a razor sharp game DJ looks like the man to beat here.

 

Jon Rahm 28/1 WGC Mexico Championship Betting Preview 2017Jon Rahm 28/1

This guy is a serious player and comes here in great form with a win, two top 10’s and a top 20 in his last five starts. Rahm played well at the World Cup of Golf back in December finishing T8 on 13 under par in total. He began the New Year in style with a win at The Farmers Insurance Open in Torrey Pines after a superb final round 65, which included an impressive eagle three on the par 5 18th. He followed that with a T16 at the Phoenix Open and didn’t shoot worse than a 70 throughout the week. Rahm then travelled to Pebble Beach where he started with a disappointing 73 in round one, but bounced back with a 67,67,68 finish to post 12 under in total and T5 for the tournament.

The Spaniard is one of the biggest hitters on tour averaging just under 300 yards off the tee. He ranks fifth in SG off the tee, second in SGTTG, 16th in GIR and fourth in par 4 scoring. Rahm is turning into a superb player and he has the power and the game to be a serious contender here.

 

Gary Woodland 45/1 WGC Mexico Championship Betting Preview 2017Gary Woodland 45/1

The big hitting American is in great form coming to Mexico this week with four top 10’s and a top 20 in his last six events. He played well at the OHL Classic at the starts of the season finishing solo second and followed that with a T6 at The Sony Open in Hawaii and a T20 at The Farmers Insurance Open in Torrey Pines. Most recently Woodland had a super performance at the Pebble Beach Pro-Am shooting 67,65 over the weekend to finish T5 on 12 under. He followed that with another solid performance last week at The Honda shooting rounds of 71,66,66,69 to finish eight under and T2 for the tournament.

He is a solid ball striker averaging just over 300 yards off the tee and ranks 20th in SGP, 16th in SGTTG, 17th in GIR and eighth in par 4 scoring.

 

Louis Oosthuizen 50/1 WGC Mexico Championship Betting Preview 2017Louis Oosthuizen 50/1

The South African has been playing some decent golf lately with four top 10’s in his last seven tournaments. He had a good week at the Nedbank Challenge finishing solo 9th and followed that with another solo 9th at the Hero World Challenge, which included two opening 67’s. He then travelled to Phoenix and didn’t shoot worse than a 68 throughout the week to finish solo third. Louis then teed it up in Australia and shot another three rounds in the 60’s to finish solo fifth at the Super 6 in Perth. Last week at the Honda he finished a respectable T21 in Florida posting three under par in total for the tournament.

Growing up in South Africa, Oosthuizen would be used to kikuyu grass which shouldn’t be any problem for him here. Statswise he ticks a lot of boxes here averaging just under 295 off the tee and ranks 31st in GIR, eighth in SGTTG and ranked eighth in driving accuracy and 11th in driving distance at the Honda last week.

 

Final Selections –

Dustin Johnson 13/2 1pt EW

Jon Rahm 28/1 0.5pts EW

Gary Woodland 45/1 0.5pts EW

Louis Oosthuizen 50/1 0.5pts EW

Total staked = 5pts

 

Good luck and enjoy the golf,

Doublebogey6

 

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AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Betting Preview 2017

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Betting Preview 2017

 

Pebble Beach Golf Links, Pebble Beach, California 

The Courses: 

Pebble Beach Golf Links – Par 72, 6,816 yards

Spyglass Hill – Par 72, 6,858 yards

Monterey Peninsula – Par 70, 6,838 yards

 

This tournament is played on three courses – Pebble Beach, Spyglass Hill and Monterey Peninsula. It is a Pro-Am format taking place on all three courses over the first three rounds with everyone playing Pebble Beach on Sunday. All the courses measure less than 7,000 yards and all feature four par fives with Monterey playing as a par 70 and Pebble beach and Spyglass Hill playing as par 72’s.

Pebble Beach is widely known to us golf fans and is a beautiful seaside links on the coast of California. It has played host to the US Open five times and the PGA Championship once. It is quite short by PGA Tour standards and is quite generous and forgiving off the tee. Pebble’s main defence is its smaller than average greens not to mention the windy weather this time of year.

Spyglass Hill is fractionally different from the other two courses as it a bit tighter with its tight, tree lined fairways. The trees can work in the players favour especially if the wind gets up.

Monterey Peninsula is a par 70 and is usually the easiest of the three courses boasting the lowest score average last year of just over 70. The greens here are bigger and play fractionally faster than the other two courses so a hot putter and long drive will be the key to making birdies here.

There are a few different factors to consider. The greens here are poa annua which is a grass that tends to be a bit bumpy. The greens are also quite small so be on the lookout for players with good GIR and scrambling stats. The grass type on the greens is the same as Torrey Pines at the Farmers Insurance Open a couple of weeks ago so take that into consideration. This course tends to favour the bigger hitters so making birdie or better on the majority of the 16 par 5’s played here this week will be a big plus. Guys with good par 3 scoring stats that are good poa annua putters should also go well here this week.

 

Brandt Snedeker AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Betting Preview 2017Brandt Snedeker 20/1 

Despite Snedeker’s questionable finish at Torrey Pines a couple of weeks ago, he could be worth keeping on side here this week. He played well at The Famers Insurance Open and really should’ve won it outright. He started well with a 68,69,70 and then finished poorly with a disappointing final round 73 to finish T9. He started 2017 with a good performance at the SBS Tournament of Champions finishing a respectable T14 on 12 under par for the week. He has been playing well over the last few weeks with a win at the Fiji International at the start of October and then went on to finish T6 in The Bahamas at The Hero World Challenge.

He has a great record here over the years finishing T21 and T8 (US Open) here in 2010 along with wins in 2013 and 2015. He ranks 23rd in GIR, seventh in scrambling and 22nd in par 3 scoring. Players with good records tend to go well here and Snedeker could follow up the disappointment of Torrey with a great performance this week.

 

Phil Mickelson 20/1 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Betting Preview 2017Phil Mickelson 20/1 

Phil is a real horse for the course here in Pebble and could be another good linksy style player to keep on side here. He hasn’t finished worse than T21 in his last four events and seems to be getting better and better every week. He finished T8 at the Safeway Open and followed that with a T21 at the CareerBuilder Challenge, T14 in Torrey Pines and a T16 last week in Phoenix which included a third round 65.

Mickelson has a superb record at Pebble Beach with three wins and four top tens in 12 appearances here. He has made himself a real links specialist over the years which was evident with his solo second and final round 65 in last year’s Open Championship in Troon. He ranks tenth in SG approaches the green, 23rd in SG around the green, 31st in SGP and seventh in scrambling. With Phil’s super record here and great current form, it could be his week.

 

Jon Rahm 22/1 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Betting Preview 2017Jon Rahm 22/1 

The Spaniard has been in fine form lately and comes here on the back of a superb win in Torrey Pines after shooting a flawless 65 in the final round which included a monster eagle on the 18th. He has been in great form this season which started with a T15 at The Safeway Open, T15 at The Shriners Open and a T8 at the World Cup of Golf. He began 2017 with a disappointing T34 at the CareerBuilder Challenge but bounced back with a win at The Farmers Insurance Open followed by a respectable T16 last week in Phoenix.

Rahm is a decent ball striker ranking ninth in SG off the tee, 18th in SGTTG and 13th in par 4 scoring. He looks like a player that could really suit this course and has to be respected here.

 

Patrick Reed 33/1 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Betting Preview 2017Patrick Reed 33/1 

Despite starting the season poorly, Reed has been showing some good signs over the last few weeks with some solid performances. He finished solo 10th at the Hero World Challenge and followed that with a T6 at the SBS Tournament of Champions, which included a second round 65. He then had a T12 at the CareerBuilder Challenge which included an opening round 69 and a closing 65.

Reed is another player with a decent record here finishing T7 in 2013, T13 in 2014, T29 in 2015 and T6 last year. Statswise his game looks to really suit this course ranking sixth in SG around the green, fifth in SGP and 32nd in SGTTG. Reed is a bit streaky lately but could be worth a risk here with his previous record.

 

Final selections – 

Brandt Snedeker 20/1 1pt EW

Phil Mickelson 20/1 0.5pts EW

Jon Rahm 22/1 0.5pts EW

Patrick Reed 33/1 0.5pts EW

Total staked = 5 pts 

 

Good luck and enjoy the golf,

Doublebogey6

 

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