WGC Mexico Championship Betting Preview 2018

WGC Mexico Championship Betting Preview 2018Club de Golf Chapultepec, Mexico City 

Par 71, 7,330 yards

We came agonizingly close on Noren making the playoff last week at the Honda but unfortunately, he came up just short, but he did get us a full each way place.  

We leave Florida and head to Mexico City for the WGC Mexico Championship. The course was designed by Scottish brothers Willie and Alex Smith and opened in 1928 and hosted to the Mexico Open from 1944 to 1960. It has three par 5’s, two of which measure just over 600 yards, four par 3’s and 11 par 4’s.  

It is a similar grass type to Riviera with kikuyu fairways and a mix of poa annua and bentgrass greens. The fairways are tree lined but forgiving so accuracy shouldn’t be a massive issue. There are also some water hazards to contend with, one in particular is the par 3 17th with a lake protecting the front and left side of the green that could offer an interesting finish on Sunday.  

Scoring doesn’t seem to be too difficult here. Dustin Johnson took the title last year and didn’t shoot worse than a 70 throughout the week to post 14 under par in total. The Mexico Open was last played here in 2014 and was won by Columbia’s Óscar David Álvarez who finished 17 under par in total.  

The course is at high altitude which plays into the bigger hitters hands a bit. If you look at the top 10 on last year’s leaderboard names like Rory, DJ, Rahm, Pieters and Thomas all featured and ranked inside the top 20 for driving distance last year so that could be a bit of a clue. DJ, Fisher and Fleetwood all ranked inside the top 5 in GIR and five of the top six ranked inside the top 20 for scrambling.  

Players that hit it long, putt well and avoid the deep greenside bunkers should score well.  A good indicator could be looking at players who had a good week in Riviera a couple of weeks ago as this course has the same grass type.  

The weather looks sunny and dry with moderate wind so scoring should be good.  

 

Tommy Fleetwood 16/1 WGC Mexico Championship Betting Preview 2018Tommy Fleetwood 16/1  

The current number 2 in the Race to Dubai is trending in the right direction and judging by last week’s performance in Florida, looks to be hitting the ball nicely coming into this week.  

He has been playing solid over the last couple of months showing form figures 4,37,6,1,3,6,21,10 in his last eight starts.  

The Englishman had a great week at the Nedbank Challenge in South Africa in November finishing T10 (which is also a high-altitude course) and followed that with a T21 at the DP World in Dubai and a solo sixth in Hong Kong.  

Fleetwood had a super start to 2018 and successfully defended in Abu Dhabi at the end of January where he didn’t shoot worse than a 68 all week to finish on 22 under in total. He then travelled to the Dubai Desert Classic where he shot rounds of 69,69,66,68 to finish T6 on -16 for the week.  

Most recently on the PGA Tour, Tommy has kept up his good form finishing a respectable T37 in Riviera and a solo fourth last week at the Honda which included a 68,67,69 over the weekend. Fleetwood played well here in Mexico last year shooting four rounds of 70 or better to finish solo second and ranked fifth in GIR and seventh in par 5 scoring.  

Statswise he is leading GIR on the European Tour this season and ranks sixth in DA, 37th in DD and third in stroke average. The Englishman looks to be in great shape coming into this week and has to be respected here.  

 

Alex Noren 25/1 WGC Mexico Championship Betting Preview 2018Alex Noren 25/1 

I’ve decided to give the Swede another rattle this week based on last week’s impressive performance in Florida. He has been making a statement in the US over the last few weeks showing some impressive form and has the look of a man on the cusp of a win.  

He came very close to getting into the playoff last week with Justin Thomas and Luke List and was a bit unlucky not birdie the last after his third shot pulled up short of the green. That being said he still finished with an impressive final round 67 to finish solo third.  

Noren has been playing some great golf over the last year or so with form figures 3,16,21,2,12,31,45,12 in his last eight tournaments. His form has been particularly impressive over the last four weeks and despite losing a playoff, he had a great week in Torrey Pines shooting rounds of 70,66,,69,73 and followed that with a T21 in Phoenix. He then travelled to Riviera and shot four rounds of 71 or better to finish T16 on four under par for the week.  

After shooting an opening round 76 here last year, the Swede was left with an uphill battle but bounced back very well with rounds of 71,72,69 which is a huge positive.  

Statswise he is averaging just over 300 yards off the tee and ranks seventh in SGP, 37th in scrambling and fourth in par 5 scoring. Noren comes here in much better form this time around and could be a huge danger man here.  

 

Thomas Pieters 35/1 WGC Mexico Championship Betting Preview 2018Thomas Pieters 35/1  

The big hitting Belgian is playing some decent golf lately and after a great performance here last year, Chapultepec looks like it could really suit his game.  

Pieters has had a mixed bag of form over the last few months but there has been some decent stand out performances. He finished T11 at the Turkish Airlines Open at the end of November where he didn’t shoot worse than a 70 all week and followed that with a very strong performance in Abu Dhabi where he posted 17 under in total shooting three rounds of 67 or better to finish T5.  

He started well in Riviera with three 71’s but had a poor final round 78 to finish T68, which was a bit unusual for a player of his calibre. However, he did rebound well with an impressive T13 last week in Florida where he ranked 11th in strokes gained putting which will give him great confidence on the greens coming into this week.  

He had a great week here last year finishing T5 shooting three 68’s and a 69. Pieters is no stranger to stepping up to the plate in the big events finishing T14 at the WGC HSBC Champions last year, T4 at the Masters and solo fourth at the WGC Bridgestone. One to watch.  

 

Tony Finau 40/1 WGC Mexicio Championship Betting Preview 2018Tony Finau 40/1 

There’s some courses out there that seem to suit certain players and I think Chapultepec could be right up Tony’s street. He has been in great form this season with form figures 2,MC,6,32,16,11,26,2 with four top 11 finishes in eight starts.  

He started the New Year with a respectable T32 in Hawaii at the Sony, which included three 67’s in a row and followed that with an impressive T6 in Torrey Pines, which included an opening round 65. Finau then missed the cut in Phoenix but he bounced back in style in Riviera shooting three rounds in the 60’s to finish T2 where he led the field in strokes gained tee to green.  

The American made his WGC debut at the HSBC Champions in China back in October and played very well finishing T11 so that’s a huge positive here.   

He is leading the PGA Tour in driving distance averaging an impressive 327 off the tee this season. He also ranks sixth in SGTTG, 16th in par 5 scoring and 20th in par 3 scoring. He looks great value here to have a good week on a course that should suit him.  

 

Final Selections –  

Tommy Fleetwood 1pt EW 

Alex Noren 1pt EW 

Thomas Pieters 1pt EW 

Tony Finau 1pt EW 

Total staked = 8pts  

*Some bookies paying 6 places*  

 

Good luck and enjoy the golf.  

Doublebogey6 

 

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Genesis Open Betting Preview 2018

Genesis Open Betting Preview 2018Riviera Country Club, California  

Par 71, 7,349 Yards  

The Course  

The PGA Tour stays in California and travels to Riviera Country Club, which is located in Pacific Palisades, California. It was designed by George C. Thomas, Jr in 1926 and was redesigned by Tom Fazio in 2008. It has been the primary host for the Genesis Open (originally the Los Angeles Open and formerly the Northern Trust Open) and is a par 71 measuring 7,349 yards.  

Riviera has hosted three major championships: the U.S. Open in 1948, and the PGA Championship in 1983 and 1995. It also hosted the U.S. Senior Open in 1998.  

Previous winners include Dustin Johnson (last year), Bubba Watson (2016 & 2014) James Hahn (2015), John Merrick (2013), Bill Haas (2012), Aaron Baddeley (2011), Steve Stricker (2010) and Phil Mickelson (2009,2008). It has three very different par 5’s and a reachable par 4. The par 3’s are tricky and will require good, accurate iron play to hit the greens.  

The first of the par 5’s is the opening hole and offers a very makeable birdie by most of the field. The other two are on the back 9 and will favour the bigger hitters with the 11th measuring just over 560 yards and the 17th measuring a lengthy 590. Players that can shape the ball will have an advantage around this course as there is quite a few doglegs and tricky par 4’s. The par 4 10th is reachable by the bigger hitters in the field measuring around 315 yards. Depending on the hole location, it can be a tricky hole to score on.  

This course has a couple of signature holes, for example, there is a bunker in the middle of sixth green, which is a par 3 and could force some players to chip from one part of the green to the other. The fairways are quite forgiving and there are no water hazards to contend with. The fairways are Kikuyu, which is common in South Africa and the greens are poa annua and are quite small so be on the lookout for guys that have good GIR stats. This course will certainly favour the bombers, who should be able to take advantage of the par 5’s and some of the short par 4’s. The main stats to look at here are driving distance, GIR, strokes gained putting, SGTTG and par 4 scoring.  

 

Paul Casey 25/1 Genesis Open Betting Preview 2018Paul Casey 25/1 

In the last four events he has played, Englishman Paul Casey has not finished outside the top 20. His form reads 7,19,11,8 since last October and comes to Riviera on the back of a top 10 finish last week in Pebble Beach.  

Casey started the season with a T7 at the CIMB Classic in Malaysia. He started with a disappointing 77 in round one but bounced back with an impressive 63 in round two followed by a 69,65 over the weekend. He then teed it up at the CJ Cup in Korea posting a respectable two under par and T19 for the tournament and followed that with a T11 at the WGC-HSBC Champions in China finishing T11.  

He came close to victory here back in 2015 getting himself into a playoff with Dustin Johnson and James Hahn after a final round 68, but just came up short to finish T2 with DJ. Casey has played well here in the past finishing T12 in 2011 and T22 in 2008 so he’s no stranger to Riviera.  

Statswise he ranks 17th in driving accuracy, seventh in GIR and first in SGTTG. Form wise Casey is playing sold golf at the moment and could follow up his top 10 last week in Pebble with another good week here.  

 

Phil Mickelson 25/1 Genesis Open Betting Preview 2018Phil Mickelson 25/1  

Phil seems to be warming up nicely lately with back to back to 5’s in his last two starts.  

He has been in good shape since the start of the season posting a T3 at the Safeway Open back in October and followed that with a T15 at the WGC-HSBC Champions in China, which included a final round 67.   

In his last eight competitive rounds Mickelson has shot a 70 or better seven times and looks to be putting superbly over the last couple of weeks.  

He had a great week in Phoenix shooting an opening round 70 followed by a 65,66,69 to finish T5. Phil then followed that with another solid performance last week in Pebble where he shot three rounds of 69 or better to finish T2 on 14 under.  

Phil has a great record here in Riviera with form figures 2,1,1,44,35,2,21,34 since 2007 including  back to back wins in 2008 and 2009. Statswise he is averaging just under 305 off the tee and ranks 12th in SG approaches to the green. He also ranks 28th in scrambling and fifth in SGP which are two important stats around Riviera.  

With great current form and a red hot putter, Phil is definitely someone to keep on side here.  

 

Ollie Schneiderjans 40/1 Genesis Open Betting Preview 2018Ollie Schneiderjans 40/1 

I backed this man a couple of weeks ago in Torrey where he unfortunately missed the cut but I’m willing to roll the dice on him once again here on a course he top 10’d on last year.  

He has been in great form over the last few weeks finishing 19,MC,7,MC,3 in his last five starts. He had a good week at the CJ Cup in Korea finishing a respectable T19 back in October.  

In his first event of 2018, he started strongly with a T7 at the Sony open in Hawaii shooting rounds of 66,65,67,68 on his way to a 14 under par total. The youngster then travelled to Arizona for the Phoenix Open where he showed some great consistency with three 68’s and a closing 65 to finish T3.  

Schneiderjans played great here last year, again showing great consistency with rounds of 68,69,69,68 on his way to a T8 where he was one of only two players to shoot sub 70 in every round. He ticks a lot of boxes here ranking 19th in driving distance, 15th in SGTTG, 53rd in SGP and ranks inside the top 36 for par 3 – par 5 scoring.  

With good current form and a great performance here last year, Schneiderjans looks a decent bet at 40’s.  

 

Chez Reavie 40/1 Genesis Open Betting Preview 2018Chez Reavie 40/1  

Reavie has been in great shape since the start of the season with seven top 20’s including, back to back top 5’s, in his last nine starts. 

He started strongly with a T13 at the Safeway Open back in October and followed that with a T17 at the CIMB Classic, T15 at the CJ Cup, T24 at the WGC-HSBC Champions, T14 at the OHL Classic and T18 at the Sony Open in Hawaii in January.  

Reavie has been playing particularly well over the last couple of weeks with back to back seconds. He came close to victory in Phoenix getting himself into a playoff with Gary Woodland after shooting an impressive final round 66 but lost the sudden death playoff to a par on the tricky 18th. He then followed that up with another solid performance last week in Pebble posting 14 under and T2 for the tournament.  

The American has played well here in Riviera before finishing solo seventh in 2016 shooting three rounds of 69 or better to finish on 11 under. Statswise Reavie ranks 10th in driving accuracy, 22nd in GIR, fifth in SGTTG and inside the top 10 for both par 3 and par 4 scoring.    

 

Final Selections –  

Paul Casey 1pt EW 

Phil Mickelson 1pt EW 

Ollie Schneiderjans 0.5pts EW 

Chez Reavie 0.5pts EW 

Total staked = 6pts (Some bookies paying 7 places)  

 

Good luck and enjoy the golf.  

Doublebogey6 

 

WGC Mexico Championship Betting Preview 2017

WGC Mexico Championship Betting Preview 2017Club de Golf Chapultepec, Mexico City

Par 71, 7,330 yards

It’s a bit of an unknown this week as we move from the familiar Blue Monster in Doral to Club de Golf Chapultepec in Mexico City for what’s now called the WGC Mexico Championship. The course was designed by Scottish brothers Willie and Alex Smith and opened in 1928 and was the permanent venue for the Mexico Open from 1944 to 1960. It has three par 5’s, two of which measure just over 600 yards, four par 3’s and 11 par 4’s.

It is a similar grass type to Riviera with kikuyu fairways and a mix of poa annua and bentgrass on the greens. The fairways are tree lined but not too narrow so accuracy shouldn’t be a massive issue. There are also some water hazards to contend with, one in particular is the par 3 17th with a lake protecting the front and left side of the green that could offer an interesting finish on Sunday.

The course looks fairly tight but not too difficult to score on. The Mexico Open was last played here in 2014 and was won by Columbia’s Óscar David Álvarez who finished 17 under par in total. The course is at high altitude making the ball travel further which could make things interesting. Two of the three par 5’s could be reachable in two and a couple of the par 4’s could be driveable by some of the bigger hitters so that could be a big advantage here. Players that hit it long, putt well and avoid the penal and sometimes deep greenside bunkers should score well.  A good indicator could be looking at players who had a good week in Riviera a couple of weeks ago as this course has a similar same grass type with kikuyu fairways and poa annua/bentgrass greens.

The weather looks a bit mixed with some showers forecast but the winds will be moderate so scoring should be good.

 

Dustin Johnson 13/2 WGC Mexico Championship Betting Preview 2017Dustin Johnson 13/2

DJ has been in superb form lately with a win and three top six’s in his last five starts. He had a good week in Riviera last time out shooting rounds of 66,66,64,71 on his way to a 17 under total and a five stroke victory. His good form began back in December at the Hero World Challenge where he finished T3 on 13 under for the tournament. He followed that with a T6 at the SBS Tournament of Champions and a solo third at the Pebble Beach Pro-Am. What stands out is his recent performances on poa annua/bentgrass greens with a win and a third in Riviera and Pebble Beach so that could be a big box ticked here.

Johnson could overpower this venue ranking second in driving distance, third in GIR, 31st in SGP, 12th in par 4 scoring and 16th in par 5 scoring. With excellent current form and a razor sharp game DJ looks like the man to beat here.

 

Jon Rahm 28/1 WGC Mexico Championship Betting Preview 2017Jon Rahm 28/1

This guy is a serious player and comes here in great form with a win, two top 10’s and a top 20 in his last five starts. Rahm played well at the World Cup of Golf back in December finishing T8 on 13 under par in total. He began the New Year in style with a win at The Farmers Insurance Open in Torrey Pines after a superb final round 65, which included an impressive eagle three on the par 5 18th. He followed that with a T16 at the Phoenix Open and didn’t shoot worse than a 70 throughout the week. Rahm then travelled to Pebble Beach where he started with a disappointing 73 in round one, but bounced back with a 67,67,68 finish to post 12 under in total and T5 for the tournament.

The Spaniard is one of the biggest hitters on tour averaging just under 300 yards off the tee. He ranks fifth in SG off the tee, second in SGTTG, 16th in GIR and fourth in par 4 scoring. Rahm is turning into a superb player and he has the power and the game to be a serious contender here.

 

Gary Woodland 45/1 WGC Mexico Championship Betting Preview 2017Gary Woodland 45/1

The big hitting American is in great form coming to Mexico this week with four top 10’s and a top 20 in his last six events. He played well at the OHL Classic at the starts of the season finishing solo second and followed that with a T6 at The Sony Open in Hawaii and a T20 at The Farmers Insurance Open in Torrey Pines. Most recently Woodland had a super performance at the Pebble Beach Pro-Am shooting 67,65 over the weekend to finish T5 on 12 under. He followed that with another solid performance last week at The Honda shooting rounds of 71,66,66,69 to finish eight under and T2 for the tournament.

He is a solid ball striker averaging just over 300 yards off the tee and ranks 20th in SGP, 16th in SGTTG, 17th in GIR and eighth in par 4 scoring.

 

Louis Oosthuizen 50/1 WGC Mexico Championship Betting Preview 2017Louis Oosthuizen 50/1

The South African has been playing some decent golf lately with four top 10’s in his last seven tournaments. He had a good week at the Nedbank Challenge finishing solo 9th and followed that with another solo 9th at the Hero World Challenge, which included two opening 67’s. He then travelled to Phoenix and didn’t shoot worse than a 68 throughout the week to finish solo third. Louis then teed it up in Australia and shot another three rounds in the 60’s to finish solo fifth at the Super 6 in Perth. Last week at the Honda he finished a respectable T21 in Florida posting three under par in total for the tournament.

Growing up in South Africa, Oosthuizen would be used to kikuyu grass which shouldn’t be any problem for him here. Statswise he ticks a lot of boxes here averaging just under 295 off the tee and ranks 31st in GIR, eighth in SGTTG and ranked eighth in driving accuracy and 11th in driving distance at the Honda last week.

 

Final Selections –

Dustin Johnson 13/2 1pt EW

Jon Rahm 28/1 0.5pts EW

Gary Woodland 45/1 0.5pts EW

Louis Oosthuizen 50/1 0.5pts EW

Total staked = 5pts

 

Good luck and enjoy the golf,

Doublebogey6

 

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