Farmers Insurance Open Betting Preview 2018

Farmers Insurance Open Betting Preview 2018The Courses:   

Torrey Pines GC, San Diego, California

Torrey Pines sits on the coastal cliffs overlooking the Pacific Ocean in the community of La Jolla, just south of Torrey Pines State Reserve. There are two courses played this week both of which were designed by William F. Bell.  

The South Course was redesigned by Rees Jones in 2001, and is now 7,698 yard par 72. The tournament uses both courses for the first two rounds and the South Course for the final two rounds. It hosted the 2008 U.S. Open on the South Course where Tiger Woods beat Rocco Mediate in a playoff. The man himself makes his 2018 debut this week on a course he has so many good memories on with seven wins in total. The question is, will punters be backing him at 22/1?  

North Course 7,258 Yards, par 72  

This is the easier of the two courses and roughly measures around 550 yards less than The South Course. It has four par 5’s, four par 3’s and 10 par fours. It is situated along the coastal cliffs of the Pacific Ocean and has a tendency to get windy.  

The fairways are a narrower and will be tricky to hit so driving accuracy will be a big plus. The greens on both courses are poa annua greens so good poa annua putters will be worth considering.  

South Course 7,698 Yards, par 72   

The South Course is played in three of the four rounds and tends to be pose a much stiffer challenge than the North course. It has four par 5’s and four par 3’s and will certainly favour the longer hitters on TOUR.  

The fairways here are a little wider and more forgiving than the North Course but length and power will be a huge advantage.    

The main stats to consider are good poa annua putters, driving distance, par 4 scoring, good current form and good previous form on this course. The total driving stat is also important, as missing the fairway can be extremely costly. There are a lot of slopes and greenside bunkers around the greens so good GIR and scrambling stats will be required.   

 

Jon Rahm 15/2 Farmers Insurance Open Betting Preview 2018Jon Rahm 15/2  

Rahm is in fine fettle and comes back to the site of his first PGA Tour title where he won by three strokes last year after holing a phenomenal 60ft putt for an eagle on the 18th green. The Spaniard has been playing superb over the last three or four months finishing 3,4,5,7,1 in his last five events of the season including a win at the DP World in Dubai in November.  

He comes here on the back of a second and a win so far in 2018 and even though he’s a measly 15/2, I’m still willing to nail my colours to the mast based on the fact that I think this course is right up his street.  

Only for the fact that he missed a few putts on Saturday in round three, he would’ve won by three or four last week in California. He played well throughout the week and opened with a very impressive 62 and followed that with two more 67’s and a 70 in round three. He played very solidly the week before in Kapalua finishing solo second which included a 67,69 over the weekend.    

Rahm looks very well suited to this course averaging just under 300 yards off the tee. He ranks sixth in SGTTG, fifth in SG off the tee, 23rd in scrambling and first in par 5 scoring. All in all its hard to bet against the in-form Spaniard here.    

 

Tony Finau 33/1 Farmers Insurance Open Betting Preview 2018Tony Finau 33/1  

Tony has been a player I’ve kept in mind for this event over the last few weeks. He has been playing well since the start of the season back in October with form figures of 32,16,11,26,2 in his last five starts. At the Safeway Open back in October, Finau shot rounds of 70,65,71,69 to post 13 under par to finish solo second. He followed that with a T26 at the CJ Cup, T11 at the WGC HSBC Champions in China and a T16 at the Shriners Open in Vegas which included three 69’s in a row.  

Finau started 2018 off with a respectable T26 at the Sony Open in Hawaii which included three 67’s. He is no stranger to playing well on tough, windy courses over the last few years finishing T9 in Kapalua last year, T27 at the Open in Birkdale last year, T18 at the Open in 2016 in Troon and a win at the blustery Puerto Rico Open in 2016.  

He has a good record here in Torrey Pines finishing T24 in 2015, T18 in 2016 and T4 last year. Big hitting Tony ticks the boxes here averaging just under 330 off the tee ranking second in driving distance. He also ranks ninth in SGTTG, eighth in SG approaches to the green and 18th in par 5 scoring. At 33’s he looks great value here.  

 

Ollie Schneiderjans 40/1 Farmers Insurance Open Betting Preview 2018Ollie Schneiderjans 40/1 

The big hitting youngster arrives to California after taking a week off last week and should be feeling nicely fresh. He has been in great form over the last few weeks finishing 17,23,19,MC,7 in his last five starts. He had a good week at the Safeway Open finishing T17 and followed that with a T23 at the CIMB Classic and a T19 at the CJ Cup in Korea.  

In his first event of 2018 he started strongly with a T7 at the Sony open in Hawaii shooting rounds of 66,65,67,68 on his way to a 14 under par total.   

Schneiderjans has shown he can play well on windy setups finishing second in Sedgefield CC last year at the Wyndham Championship where he was 1 stroke behind the winner Henrik Stenson. He also finished 12th at the Open in St Andrews in 2015 and finished third in Harbour Town at the RBC Heritage last April so he’s no stranger to windy courses.  

He played very solid here last year where he shot two 69’s and two 71’s to finish T9 on eight under for the tournament. Statswise he is averaging 306 off the tee (31st in driving distance) which is a big plus especially for the South Course. Given he is playing well and clearly has good form on exposed courses, Schneiderjans looks worth chancing here at 40/1.

 

Kyle Stanley 50/1 Farmers Insurance Open Betting Preview 2018Kyle Stanley 50/1  

Stanley has been having a good season so far and is a real horse for the course here at Torrey Pines. He has gone 21,19,5,30,10 in his last five starts and looks to be trending in the right direction.  

He started the season with a respectable T21 at the CIMB Classic and followed that with a T19 at the CJ Cup. The American had a great week at the WGC-HSBC Champions at the tricky SheshanGC back in November finishing T5 on eight under par in total shooting rounds of 71,68,69,72.    

Stanley then started 2018 in Kapalua at the Sentry TOC where he didn’t seem to take to the course finishing last in 30th, but he did bounce back well with an impressive T10 at The Sony. He started with an opening round 64 and followed that with 67,65,71 to post 13 under.  

Stanley has a good record in Torrey over the last few years and came close to victory in 2012.He had a healthy three shot lead on the 18th tee and ended up taking a disappointing triple bogey after finding water short of the 18th green and went on to lose a playoff to Brandt Snedeker. Despite that collapse, Stanley seems to like this course finishing T25 in 2016 and T14 last year and looks great value to have a good week here.  

 

 

Final selections – Most bookmakers paying 7 places  

Jon Rahm 1pt EW 

Tony Finau 1pt EW 

Ollie Schneiderjans 0.5pts EW 

Kyle Stanley 0.5pts EW 

Total staked = 6 pts 

 

Good luck and enjoy the golf.  

 

Doublebogey6 

 

Follow me on Twitter @DoubleboegyDB6

Follow me on Facebook Facebook.com/Doublebogey6

FedEx St. Jude Classic Betting Preview 2017

FedEx St Jude Classic Betting Preview 2017TPC Southwind, Memphis, Tennessee

Par 70 7,239 Yards 

The Course

Apologies for my absence folks it’s been a very busy few weeks but it’s great to be back. After the Duf winning on Jack’s stomping ground in Ohio, we move on to the FedEx St. Jude Classic, the last event before we head over to Erin Hills for the 2017 edition of the US Open. This event is held in Memphis, Tennessee and has been held annually since 1958 and is currently played at TPC Southwind, its home since 1989.

TPC Southwind is a 7,239 yard par 70 with two par 5’s, four par 3’s and 12 par 4’s.The fairways are undulating and narrow but the rough isn’t too penal so it’s not the end of the world if you’re a bit erratic off the tee. There are roughly 100 bunkers with 10 water hazards coming into play with various streams, lakes and ponds scattered around the course.  The greens here are Bermuda and are smaller than average by tour standards with tricky undulations. Players will need decent accuracy with their approach shots and a pretty warm putter to score well here. The main areas of focus here are GIR, strokes gained tee to green, strokes gained putting, par 4 and par 3 scoring and current/previous form.

The weather looks pretty good for the tournament days and should be relatively uninterrupted.

 

Adam Scott 12/1 FedEx St Jude Classic Betting Preview 2017Adam Scott 12/1

The Aussie has been playing well throughout the season and comes here on the back of two top 10’s in his last four starts. He had a good week at the Masters in Augusta finishing T9 and followed that with a T6 at The Players Championship shooting rounds of 70,72,71,70 to post five under par in total. Scott has had some good performances on tricky courses this year including a T11 in Riviera at the Genesis Open and T14 at The Honda at the end of February.

Scott has only played here once before finishing seventh in 2007 and also ticks a lot of boxes here ranking 17th in driving distance, 12th in birdie average and 293rd in par 4 birdie or better leaders. He is one of the best players in the field here this week and has to be respected given his decent record on Bermuda Greens.

 

Kyle Stanley Fedex St Jude Classic Betting Preview 2017Kyle Stanley 28/1

I’ve been keeping an eye on Kyle Stanley over the last few weeks and he seems to be coming into some nice form lately. He has been playing well over the last couple of months finishing T17 at Bay Hill, T8 in Houston, T4 at the Players and T6 last week at the Memorial.

Although Stanley has played here four times before, his best finish was T49 back in 2012 but he is in much better form this time around. Statswise he looks like he could really suit this course ranking 16th in driving accuracy, second in GIR, ninth in par 4 scoring and 11th in par 5 scoring. He looks to be in great shape coming into this week and could be one to watch.

 

 

Russell Henley 28/1 FedEx St Jude Classic Betting Preview 2017Russell Henley 28/1

Henley has had a great season so far and seems to be showing some great consistency over the last few months. He started with a T14 at the Sanderson Farms and followed that with a T10 at The RSM Classic, T13 at The Sony, T16 in Phoenix, T9 at the Valspar, a win in Houston and an impressive T11 at The Masters. He has fractionally gone off the boil lately but he has a good record here at TPC Southwind finishing 27th in 2013 and seventh last year.

Henley looks like another player that could suit this course statswise ranking 22nd in GIR, 20th in birdie average, ninth in par 4 scoring and 16th in par 5 scoring. I thought 28/1 was great value for a guy that’s in great form lately.

 

Kevin Tway 50/1 FedEx St Jude Classic Betting Preview 2017Kevin Tway 50/1

After a bit of a slow start to the PGA Tour season, Kevin Tway looks to be finding his feet over the last couple of months with some great performances on tricky courses. He had a great week at the Texas Open finishing T3 and followed that with a solo third in New Orleans after a superb final round 61. Tway then travelled to the Wells Fargo finishing T5 and followed that with a respectable T20 at the Byron Nelson and a T18 in Colonial.

Statswise he ranks sixth in driving distance and 29th in strokes gained off the tee. Tway seeme to be playing with some decent consistency recently and looks great value here this week.

 

Final selections

Adam Scott 12/1 1pt EW

Kyle Stanley 28/1 0.5pts EW

Russell Henley 28/1 0.5pts EW

Kevin Tway 50/1 0.5pts EW

Total staked = 5 pts

 

Good luck and enjoy the golf,

Doublebogey6

Follow me on Twitter @@DoublebogeyDB6

Like me on Facebook www.facebook.com/doublebogey6