WGC Mexico Championship Betting Preview 2018

WGC Mexico Championship Betting Preview 2018Club de Golf Chapultepec, Mexico City 

Par 71, 7,330 yards

We came agonizingly close on Noren making the playoff last week at the Honda but unfortunately, he came up just short, but he did get us a full each way place.  

We leave Florida and head to Mexico City for the WGC Mexico Championship. The course was designed by Scottish brothers Willie and Alex Smith and opened in 1928 and hosted to the Mexico Open from 1944 to 1960. It has three par 5’s, two of which measure just over 600 yards, four par 3’s and 11 par 4’s.  

It is a similar grass type to Riviera with kikuyu fairways and a mix of poa annua and bentgrass greens. The fairways are tree lined but forgiving so accuracy shouldn’t be a massive issue. There are also some water hazards to contend with, one in particular is the par 3 17th with a lake protecting the front and left side of the green that could offer an interesting finish on Sunday.  

Scoring doesn’t seem to be too difficult here. Dustin Johnson took the title last year and didn’t shoot worse than a 70 throughout the week to post 14 under par in total. The Mexico Open was last played here in 2014 and was won by Columbia’s Óscar David Álvarez who finished 17 under par in total.  

The course is at high altitude which plays into the bigger hitters hands a bit. If you look at the top 10 on last year’s leaderboard names like Rory, DJ, Rahm, Pieters and Thomas all featured and ranked inside the top 20 for driving distance last year so that could be a bit of a clue. DJ, Fisher and Fleetwood all ranked inside the top 5 in GIR and five of the top six ranked inside the top 20 for scrambling.  

Players that hit it long, putt well and avoid the deep greenside bunkers should score well.  A good indicator could be looking at players who had a good week in Riviera a couple of weeks ago as this course has the same grass type.  

The weather looks sunny and dry with moderate wind so scoring should be good.  

 

Tommy Fleetwood 16/1 WGC Mexico Championship Betting Preview 2018Tommy Fleetwood 16/1  

The current number 2 in the Race to Dubai is trending in the right direction and judging by last week’s performance in Florida, looks to be hitting the ball nicely coming into this week.  

He has been playing solid over the last couple of months showing form figures 4,37,6,1,3,6,21,10 in his last eight starts.  

The Englishman had a great week at the Nedbank Challenge in South Africa in November finishing T10 (which is also a high-altitude course) and followed that with a T21 at the DP World in Dubai and a solo sixth in Hong Kong.  

Fleetwood had a super start to 2018 and successfully defended in Abu Dhabi at the end of January where he didn’t shoot worse than a 68 all week to finish on 22 under in total. He then travelled to the Dubai Desert Classic where he shot rounds of 69,69,66,68 to finish T6 on -16 for the week.  

Most recently on the PGA Tour, Tommy has kept up his good form finishing a respectable T37 in Riviera and a solo fourth last week at the Honda which included a 68,67,69 over the weekend. Fleetwood played well here in Mexico last year shooting four rounds of 70 or better to finish solo second and ranked fifth in GIR and seventh in par 5 scoring.  

Statswise he is leading GIR on the European Tour this season and ranks sixth in DA, 37th in DD and third in stroke average. The Englishman looks to be in great shape coming into this week and has to be respected here.  

 

Alex Noren 25/1 WGC Mexico Championship Betting Preview 2018Alex Noren 25/1 

I’ve decided to give the Swede another rattle this week based on last week’s impressive performance in Florida. He has been making a statement in the US over the last few weeks showing some impressive form and has the look of a man on the cusp of a win.  

He came very close to getting into the playoff last week with Justin Thomas and Luke List and was a bit unlucky not birdie the last after his third shot pulled up short of the green. That being said he still finished with an impressive final round 67 to finish solo third.  

Noren has been playing some great golf over the last year or so with form figures 3,16,21,2,12,31,45,12 in his last eight tournaments. His form has been particularly impressive over the last four weeks and despite losing a playoff, he had a great week in Torrey Pines shooting rounds of 70,66,,69,73 and followed that with a T21 in Phoenix. He then travelled to Riviera and shot four rounds of 71 or better to finish T16 on four under par for the week.  

After shooting an opening round 76 here last year, the Swede was left with an uphill battle but bounced back very well with rounds of 71,72,69 which is a huge positive.  

Statswise he is averaging just over 300 yards off the tee and ranks seventh in SGP, 37th in scrambling and fourth in par 5 scoring. Noren comes here in much better form this time around and could be a huge danger man here.  

 

Thomas Pieters 35/1 WGC Mexico Championship Betting Preview 2018Thomas Pieters 35/1  

The big hitting Belgian is playing some decent golf lately and after a great performance here last year, Chapultepec looks like it could really suit his game.  

Pieters has had a mixed bag of form over the last few months but there has been some decent stand out performances. He finished T11 at the Turkish Airlines Open at the end of November where he didn’t shoot worse than a 70 all week and followed that with a very strong performance in Abu Dhabi where he posted 17 under in total shooting three rounds of 67 or better to finish T5.  

He started well in Riviera with three 71’s but had a poor final round 78 to finish T68, which was a bit unusual for a player of his calibre. However, he did rebound well with an impressive T13 last week in Florida where he ranked 11th in strokes gained putting which will give him great confidence on the greens coming into this week.  

He had a great week here last year finishing T5 shooting three 68’s and a 69. Pieters is no stranger to stepping up to the plate in the big events finishing T14 at the WGC HSBC Champions last year, T4 at the Masters and solo fourth at the WGC Bridgestone. One to watch.  

 

Tony Finau 40/1 WGC Mexicio Championship Betting Preview 2018Tony Finau 40/1 

There’s some courses out there that seem to suit certain players and I think Chapultepec could be right up Tony’s street. He has been in great form this season with form figures 2,MC,6,32,16,11,26,2 with four top 11 finishes in eight starts.  

He started the New Year with a respectable T32 in Hawaii at the Sony, which included three 67’s in a row and followed that with an impressive T6 in Torrey Pines, which included an opening round 65. Finau then missed the cut in Phoenix but he bounced back in style in Riviera shooting three rounds in the 60’s to finish T2 where he led the field in strokes gained tee to green.  

The American made his WGC debut at the HSBC Champions in China back in October and played very well finishing T11 so that’s a huge positive here.   

He is leading the PGA Tour in driving distance averaging an impressive 327 off the tee this season. He also ranks sixth in SGTTG, 16th in par 5 scoring and 20th in par 3 scoring. He looks great value here to have a good week on a course that should suit him.  

 

Final Selections –  

Tommy Fleetwood 1pt EW 

Alex Noren 1pt EW 

Thomas Pieters 1pt EW 

Tony Finau 1pt EW 

Total staked = 8pts  

*Some bookies paying 6 places*  

 

Good luck and enjoy the golf.  

Doublebogey6 

 

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WGC Mexico Championship Betting Preview 2017

WGC Mexico Championship Betting Preview 2017Club de Golf Chapultepec, Mexico City

Par 71, 7,330 yards

It’s a bit of an unknown this week as we move from the familiar Blue Monster in Doral to Club de Golf Chapultepec in Mexico City for what’s now called the WGC Mexico Championship. The course was designed by Scottish brothers Willie and Alex Smith and opened in 1928 and was the permanent venue for the Mexico Open from 1944 to 1960. It has three par 5’s, two of which measure just over 600 yards, four par 3’s and 11 par 4’s.

It is a similar grass type to Riviera with kikuyu fairways and a mix of poa annua and bentgrass on the greens. The fairways are tree lined but not too narrow so accuracy shouldn’t be a massive issue. There are also some water hazards to contend with, one in particular is the par 3 17th with a lake protecting the front and left side of the green that could offer an interesting finish on Sunday.

The course looks fairly tight but not too difficult to score on. The Mexico Open was last played here in 2014 and was won by Columbia’s Óscar David Álvarez who finished 17 under par in total. The course is at high altitude making the ball travel further which could make things interesting. Two of the three par 5’s could be reachable in two and a couple of the par 4’s could be driveable by some of the bigger hitters so that could be a big advantage here. Players that hit it long, putt well and avoid the penal and sometimes deep greenside bunkers should score well.  A good indicator could be looking at players who had a good week in Riviera a couple of weeks ago as this course has a similar same grass type with kikuyu fairways and poa annua/bentgrass greens.

The weather looks a bit mixed with some showers forecast but the winds will be moderate so scoring should be good.

 

Dustin Johnson 13/2 WGC Mexico Championship Betting Preview 2017Dustin Johnson 13/2

DJ has been in superb form lately with a win and three top six’s in his last five starts. He had a good week in Riviera last time out shooting rounds of 66,66,64,71 on his way to a 17 under total and a five stroke victory. His good form began back in December at the Hero World Challenge where he finished T3 on 13 under for the tournament. He followed that with a T6 at the SBS Tournament of Champions and a solo third at the Pebble Beach Pro-Am. What stands out is his recent performances on poa annua/bentgrass greens with a win and a third in Riviera and Pebble Beach so that could be a big box ticked here.

Johnson could overpower this venue ranking second in driving distance, third in GIR, 31st in SGP, 12th in par 4 scoring and 16th in par 5 scoring. With excellent current form and a razor sharp game DJ looks like the man to beat here.

 

Jon Rahm 28/1 WGC Mexico Championship Betting Preview 2017Jon Rahm 28/1

This guy is a serious player and comes here in great form with a win, two top 10’s and a top 20 in his last five starts. Rahm played well at the World Cup of Golf back in December finishing T8 on 13 under par in total. He began the New Year in style with a win at The Farmers Insurance Open in Torrey Pines after a superb final round 65, which included an impressive eagle three on the par 5 18th. He followed that with a T16 at the Phoenix Open and didn’t shoot worse than a 70 throughout the week. Rahm then travelled to Pebble Beach where he started with a disappointing 73 in round one, but bounced back with a 67,67,68 finish to post 12 under in total and T5 for the tournament.

The Spaniard is one of the biggest hitters on tour averaging just under 300 yards off the tee. He ranks fifth in SG off the tee, second in SGTTG, 16th in GIR and fourth in par 4 scoring. Rahm is turning into a superb player and he has the power and the game to be a serious contender here.

 

Gary Woodland 45/1 WGC Mexico Championship Betting Preview 2017Gary Woodland 45/1

The big hitting American is in great form coming to Mexico this week with four top 10’s and a top 20 in his last six events. He played well at the OHL Classic at the starts of the season finishing solo second and followed that with a T6 at The Sony Open in Hawaii and a T20 at The Farmers Insurance Open in Torrey Pines. Most recently Woodland had a super performance at the Pebble Beach Pro-Am shooting 67,65 over the weekend to finish T5 on 12 under. He followed that with another solid performance last week at The Honda shooting rounds of 71,66,66,69 to finish eight under and T2 for the tournament.

He is a solid ball striker averaging just over 300 yards off the tee and ranks 20th in SGP, 16th in SGTTG, 17th in GIR and eighth in par 4 scoring.

 

Louis Oosthuizen 50/1 WGC Mexico Championship Betting Preview 2017Louis Oosthuizen 50/1

The South African has been playing some decent golf lately with four top 10’s in his last seven tournaments. He had a good week at the Nedbank Challenge finishing solo 9th and followed that with another solo 9th at the Hero World Challenge, which included two opening 67’s. He then travelled to Phoenix and didn’t shoot worse than a 68 throughout the week to finish solo third. Louis then teed it up in Australia and shot another three rounds in the 60’s to finish solo fifth at the Super 6 in Perth. Last week at the Honda he finished a respectable T21 in Florida posting three under par in total for the tournament.

Growing up in South Africa, Oosthuizen would be used to kikuyu grass which shouldn’t be any problem for him here. Statswise he ticks a lot of boxes here averaging just under 295 off the tee and ranks 31st in GIR, eighth in SGTTG and ranked eighth in driving accuracy and 11th in driving distance at the Honda last week.

 

Final Selections –

Dustin Johnson 13/2 1pt EW

Jon Rahm 28/1 0.5pts EW

Gary Woodland 45/1 0.5pts EW

Louis Oosthuizen 50/1 0.5pts EW

Total staked = 5pts

 

Good luck and enjoy the golf,

Doublebogey6

 

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