Farmers Insurance Open Betting Preview 2018

Farmers Insurance Open Betting Preview 2018The Courses:   

Torrey Pines GC, San Diego, California

Torrey Pines sits on the coastal cliffs overlooking the Pacific Ocean in the community of La Jolla, just south of Torrey Pines State Reserve. There are two courses played this week both of which were designed by William F. Bell.  

The South Course was redesigned by Rees Jones in 2001, and is now 7,698 yard par 72. The tournament uses both courses for the first two rounds and the South Course for the final two rounds. It hosted the 2008 U.S. Open on the South Course where Tiger Woods beat Rocco Mediate in a playoff. The man himself makes his 2018 debut this week on a course he has so many good memories on with seven wins in total. The question is, will punters be backing him at 22/1?  

North Course 7,258 Yards, par 72  

This is the easier of the two courses and roughly measures around 550 yards less than The South Course. It has four par 5’s, four par 3’s and 10 par fours. It is situated along the coastal cliffs of the Pacific Ocean and has a tendency to get windy.  

The fairways are a narrower and will be tricky to hit so driving accuracy will be a big plus. The greens on both courses are poa annua greens so good poa annua putters will be worth considering.  

South Course 7,698 Yards, par 72   

The South Course is played in three of the four rounds and tends to be pose a much stiffer challenge than the North course. It has four par 5’s and four par 3’s and will certainly favour the longer hitters on TOUR.  

The fairways here are a little wider and more forgiving than the North Course but length and power will be a huge advantage.    

The main stats to consider are good poa annua putters, driving distance, par 4 scoring, good current form and good previous form on this course. The total driving stat is also important, as missing the fairway can be extremely costly. There are a lot of slopes and greenside bunkers around the greens so good GIR and scrambling stats will be required.   

 

Jon Rahm 15/2 Farmers Insurance Open Betting Preview 2018Jon Rahm 15/2  

Rahm is in fine fettle and comes back to the site of his first PGA Tour title where he won by three strokes last year after holing a phenomenal 60ft putt for an eagle on the 18th green. The Spaniard has been playing superb over the last three or four months finishing 3,4,5,7,1 in his last five events of the season including a win at the DP World in Dubai in November.  

He comes here on the back of a second and a win so far in 2018 and even though he’s a measly 15/2, I’m still willing to nail my colours to the mast based on the fact that I think this course is right up his street.  

Only for the fact that he missed a few putts on Saturday in round three, he would’ve won by three or four last week in California. He played well throughout the week and opened with a very impressive 62 and followed that with two more 67’s and a 70 in round three. He played very solidly the week before in Kapalua finishing solo second which included a 67,69 over the weekend.    

Rahm looks very well suited to this course averaging just under 300 yards off the tee. He ranks sixth in SGTTG, fifth in SG off the tee, 23rd in scrambling and first in par 5 scoring. All in all its hard to bet against the in-form Spaniard here.    

 

Tony Finau 33/1 Farmers Insurance Open Betting Preview 2018Tony Finau 33/1  

Tony has been a player I’ve kept in mind for this event over the last few weeks. He has been playing well since the start of the season back in October with form figures of 32,16,11,26,2 in his last five starts. At the Safeway Open back in October, Finau shot rounds of 70,65,71,69 to post 13 under par to finish solo second. He followed that with a T26 at the CJ Cup, T11 at the WGC HSBC Champions in China and a T16 at the Shriners Open in Vegas which included three 69’s in a row.  

Finau started 2018 off with a respectable T26 at the Sony Open in Hawaii which included three 67’s. He is no stranger to playing well on tough, windy courses over the last few years finishing T9 in Kapalua last year, T27 at the Open in Birkdale last year, T18 at the Open in 2016 in Troon and a win at the blustery Puerto Rico Open in 2016.  

He has a good record here in Torrey Pines finishing T24 in 2015, T18 in 2016 and T4 last year. Big hitting Tony ticks the boxes here averaging just under 330 off the tee ranking second in driving distance. He also ranks ninth in SGTTG, eighth in SG approaches to the green and 18th in par 5 scoring. At 33’s he looks great value here.  

 

Ollie Schneiderjans 40/1 Farmers Insurance Open Betting Preview 2018Ollie Schneiderjans 40/1 

The big hitting youngster arrives to California after taking a week off last week and should be feeling nicely fresh. He has been in great form over the last few weeks finishing 17,23,19,MC,7 in his last five starts. He had a good week at the Safeway Open finishing T17 and followed that with a T23 at the CIMB Classic and a T19 at the CJ Cup in Korea.  

In his first event of 2018 he started strongly with a T7 at the Sony open in Hawaii shooting rounds of 66,65,67,68 on his way to a 14 under par total.   

Schneiderjans has shown he can play well on windy setups finishing second in Sedgefield CC last year at the Wyndham Championship where he was 1 stroke behind the winner Henrik Stenson. He also finished 12th at the Open in St Andrews in 2015 and finished third in Harbour Town at the RBC Heritage last April so he’s no stranger to windy courses.  

He played very solid here last year where he shot two 69’s and two 71’s to finish T9 on eight under for the tournament. Statswise he is averaging 306 off the tee (31st in driving distance) which is a big plus especially for the South Course. Given he is playing well and clearly has good form on exposed courses, Schneiderjans looks worth chancing here at 40/1.

 

Kyle Stanley 50/1 Farmers Insurance Open Betting Preview 2018Kyle Stanley 50/1  

Stanley has been having a good season so far and is a real horse for the course here at Torrey Pines. He has gone 21,19,5,30,10 in his last five starts and looks to be trending in the right direction.  

He started the season with a respectable T21 at the CIMB Classic and followed that with a T19 at the CJ Cup. The American had a great week at the WGC-HSBC Champions at the tricky SheshanGC back in November finishing T5 on eight under par in total shooting rounds of 71,68,69,72.    

Stanley then started 2018 in Kapalua at the Sentry TOC where he didn’t seem to take to the course finishing last in 30th, but he did bounce back well with an impressive T10 at The Sony. He started with an opening round 64 and followed that with 67,65,71 to post 13 under.  

Stanley has a good record in Torrey over the last few years and came close to victory in 2012.He had a healthy three shot lead on the 18th tee and ended up taking a disappointing triple bogey after finding water short of the 18th green and went on to lose a playoff to Brandt Snedeker. Despite that collapse, Stanley seems to like this course finishing T25 in 2016 and T14 last year and looks great value to have a good week here.  

 

 

Final selections – Most bookmakers paying 7 places  

Jon Rahm 1pt EW 

Tony Finau 1pt EW 

Ollie Schneiderjans 0.5pts EW 

Kyle Stanley 0.5pts EW 

Total staked = 6 pts 

 

Good luck and enjoy the golf.  

 

Doublebogey6 

 

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Farmers Insurance Open Betting Preview 2017

Farmers Insurance Open Betting Preview 2017 Betting PreviewThe Course: 

Torrey Pines GC, San Diego, California

This week, the PGA Tour travels to Torrey Pines for The Farmers Insurance Open. It sits on the coastal cliffs overlooking the Pacific Ocean in the community of La Jolla, just south of Torrey Pines State Reserve. Brandt Snedeker won in dramatic fashion last year when the tournament went to a Monday finish due to a weather delay. He went around in 69 in unbearable wet and windy conditions on Sunday beating KJ Choi by one single stroke.

There are two courses played here this week.

Both the North and South courses were designed by William F. Bell. The South Course was redesigned by Rees Jones in 2001, and is now 7,607 yard par 72. Since the late 1960s, Torrey Pines has hosted the Farmers Insurance Open. The tournament uses both courses for the first two rounds and the South Course for the final two rounds. It hosted the 2008 U.S. Open on the South Course, which was won by Tiger Woods in a playoff.

Here’s a more in depth look at the courses.

North Course 6,874 Yards, par 72

This is the easier of the two courses and roughly measures around 550 yards less than The South Course. It has four par 5’s, four par 3’s and 10 par fours. It is situated along the coastal cliffs of the Pacific Ocean and has a tendency to get a bit windy.

The fairways are a narrower and will be tricky to hit so driving accuracy will be a big plus. The greens on both courses are poa annua greens, which tends to get a bit bumpy as the day goes on so good poa annua putters will be worth considering.

South Course 7,607 Yards, par 72 

The South Course is played in three of the four rounds and tends to be a lot more difficult than the North course. It has four par 5’s and four par 3’s and is also prone to windy conditions. The fairways here are a little wider and more forgiving than The North Course, but length and power will be required here, which will favour the bigger hitters in the field. There a more hazards guarding the greens so good scramblers could also be worth considering.

The main stats to consider here are good poa annua putters, par 4 scoring, good current form and good previous form on this course. There are a lot of slopes and greenside bunkers around the greens so good GIR and scrambling stats will be required.

 

Brandt Snedeker Farmers Insurance Open Betting Preview 2017Brandt Snedeker 22/1 

Snedeker has been in good form in the early part of this season. He missed the cut at the Sony but played well in Kapalua the week before finishing in a respectable T14 on 12 under par for the week. He has been playing well over the last few weeks with a win at the Fiji International at the start of October and then went on to finish T6 in The Bahamas at The Hero World Challenge. He had another good performance with partner Jason Dufner at The Franklin Templeton Shootout finishing solo eighth on 20 under par in total.

He has a great record here in Torrey Pines and played superb in unbearable conditions last year shooting a final round 69 to beat his nearest challenger, Korean KJ Choi by one stroke. Snedeker has two wins (2016 and 2012) and five top 10’s in 10 appearances here. He ranks 23rd in GIR and seventh in scrambling so far this season and looks a good shout here to have another good week here.

 

Jimmy Walker 25/1 Farmers Insurance Open Betting Preview 2017Jimmy Walker 25/1

Walker seems to be back fit and healthy after a short illness at the Sony a couple of weeks ago and has been showing some decent form over the last couple of months. He played well at The World Cup of Golf at the end of November finishing T2 with fellow American Rickie Fowler and followed that with a T13 at The Hero World Challenge, which could have been better if it weren’t for a final round 73. Walker then started the New Year in style opening with a 65 in the first round of the SBS Tournament of Champions where he finished T9 on 14 under for the tournament.

He is another player with a great record in Torrey Pines with four top 10’s in his last five appearances. He was right in the mix going into the final round last year and managed a final round 77 to finish T4 in very tough wet and windy conditions. He finished T7 in 2015, T4 in 2013 and T8 in 2012. Statswise he ranks 14th in SG Approaches to the green, 28th in GIR and has great form playing on similar open, windy courses like Waialae and Pebble Beach. If Walker can get the putter rolling he could have a good chance here.

 

Pat Perez 80/1 Farmers Insurance Open Betting Preview 2017Pat Perez 80/1 

With the exception of a poor final round at the Sony, Pat has been playing well recently with a win and two top 10’s in his last four starts. He had a good week at The Shriners Open in Vegas where he finished 15 under par in total and T7 for the tournament. He then went on to win the OHL Classic at Myakoba on 21 under, which included an impressive third round 62. He had another good week in Kapalua finishing T3 at the SBS Tournament of Champions after shooting a final round 67.

Perez is another player that has a decent history here with one top five and three top 25’s in his last six appearances. Statswise he ranks 25th in SG around the green, fourth in par 5 scoring and 24th in birdie average. For a guy bang in form, Perez could be a good each way shout at a big price.

 

Martin Laird Farmers Insurance Open Betting Preview 2017Martin Laird 50/1

With an open, windy, “Linksy” setup, this could be right up the Scot’s street. Laird has had a decent start to the season with three top 15’s and a top 30 in his last four starts. He started with a top 10 at The Safeway Open back in October finishing T8 on 14 under for the tournament, which included three rounds in the 60’s. He followed that with a T27 at The Shriners Open in Vegas and a T13 at The OHL Classic. Laird’s first event of 2017 came last week at The CareerBuilder Challenge where he finished in a respectable T9 on 14 under for the week.

Martin has a good record here at Torrey with two top 10’s in his last two appearances. He finished T8 last year and shot a 77 in horrible conditions in the final round and posted a T7 in 2015 which included three round sin the 60’s. Statswise he ranks sixth in SG Approaches to the green, ninth in SGTTG, sixth in par 3 scoring and 18th in par 4 scoring.

 

Final Selections –

Brandt Snedeker 22/1 1pt EW

Jimmy Walker 25/1 0.5pts EW

Pat Perez 80/1 0.5 pts EW

Martin Laird 50/1 0.5 pts EW

Total staked = 5 pts

 

Good luck and enjoy the golf.

Doublebogey6

 

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Safeway Open Betting Preview 2016

Tiger Woods Safeway open 2016North Course, Silverado Resort & Spa, Napa Valley, California 

Par 72 7,203 yards

We’re hopefully going to see the return of a certain Mr Woods this week and I for one think it’s great to have him back playing competitively again. The word on social media is that Tiger seems to be hitting the ball well in practice and is in tip top shape coming into this week. He is paired with Phil Mickelson for the first two rounds so it should make for some very interesting viewing.

Silverado Resort & Spa measures a lengthy 7,203 yards and has four par 3’s, four par 5’s and 10 par 4’s. It was designed by Robert Trent Jones Jr in the 1960’s and was renovated by Johnny Miller in 2011. The fairways are tree lined with forgiving rough so missing the fairways here will not be a big deal. There are quite a lot of nice features around the course such as old Oak trees, elevation changes and water features and crossings. The greens are bent grass and are average size by PGA Tour standards and can get quite fast depending on weather conditions.

This will be the third time this course has hosted the tournament and judging by last year, length does not seem to be a huge advantage. Players that have accurate iron play and the ability to negotiate these tricky bent grass greens should go well here this week. Top stats to consider are par 4 and par 5 scoring, GIR, approach stats, SGTTG and SGP.

 

Paul Casey 25/1 Safeway Open Betting Preview 2016Paul Casey 12/1

Casey has to get a nod here based on the fact that he played superb throughout the FedExCup Playoffs. His good run of form began at the PGA Championship where he finished T10 and didn’t shoot worse than a 69 throughout the tournament. He followed that with a T17 at The Travelers, second at The Deutsche Bank, second at The BMW and a solo fourth at The Tour Championship. Casey has shot a 70 or better in 11 of his last 12 rounds and could have the game that suits this course.

This is his first appearance here at Silverado but statistically he seem to fit the bill. He ranks 21st in SG off the tee, 11th in SG approaches to the green, second in GIR and seventh in SGTTG. After playing solidly throughout the playoffs Casey could be the man to beat here especially in a weakened field.

 

Emiliano Grillo Safeway Open Betting Preview 2016Emiliano Grillo 20/1 

This man started with a bang last year and won this tournament in style beating Kevin Na on the second playoff hole. He has been playing some great golf over the last few months and comes into this with four top 15’s in his last six starts. He had a good week at the PGA finishing T13 and followed that with a T8 in Rio at The Olympics, T2 at The Barclays and a respectable T10 in East Lake at The Tour Championship.

He played superb last year and shot 68,71,65,69 to post 15 under in total. Grillo also ticks a lot of statistical boxes ranking 28th in SG off the tee, 27th in GIR and 26th in birdie average. He comes here in great form and could have another good week.

 

Justin Thomas Safeway Open Betting Preview 2016Justin Thomas 25/1 

Thomas came within a whisker of getting into the playoff with Grillo and Na last year but just came up one short. He had a good season and finished well with three top 10’s in his last six tournaments. He played well at The Quicken Loans finishing T12 and didn’t shoot worse than a 70 throughout the tournament. He followed that with a T3 at The Travelers which included a superb final round 62 to post 12 under par in total. Thomas then went on to play well in The Playoffs finishing T10 at The Barclays and a T6 at The Tour Championship shooting rounds of 68,71,69,67.

He played great here last year finishing T3 and was a bit unlucky not to finish better and make the playoff. Thomas is averaging just over 300 yards off the tee and ranks 17th in par 5 scoring and 20th in SG approaches to the green.

 

Jhonattan Vegas 50/1 

The streaky Johnny Vegas had a good season and has been playing well since early July. After a T4 at the Barbasol, Vegas then went on to win the RBC Canadian Open after shooting a superb final round 64 to finish 12 under in total beating Dustin Johnson, Martin Laird and Jon Rahm by one stroke. He followed that with a T22 at The PGA, T22 at The Barclays, T24 at The BMW and a T24 at the Tour Championship. Vegas had a great week here last year opening with a 64 in round one and ended up finishing T10 on 11 under for the tournament.

He ranks 23rd in SG off the tee, 14th in driving distance, 10th in GIR and 24th in par 5 scoring. After a solid performance here last year and decent form towards the end of last season, Vegas is worth chancing here.

 

Final Selections – 

Paul Casey 1pt EW 12/1 

Emiliano Grillo 0.5pts EW 20/1 

Justin Thomas 0.5pts EW 25/1 

Jhonattan Vegas 0.5pts EW 50/1

Total staked = 5 pts 

 

Good luck and enjoy the golf.

Doublebogey6

 

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Frys.com Open Betting Preview 2015

Frys.com Open Betting Preview 2015

North Course, Silverado Resort & Spa, Napa Valley, California

Par 72 7,203 yards

It’s great to be back! Let’s hope we have yet another profitable year for the 2015/2016 season.

Silverado Resort & Spa measures a lengthy 7,203 yards and has four par 3’s, four par 5’s and 10 par 4’s. It was designed by Robert Trent Jones Jr in the 1960’s and was renovated by Johnny Miller in 2011. The fairways are tree lined with forgiving rough so missing the fairways here will not be a big deal. There are quite a lot of nice features around the course such as old Oak trees, elevation changes and water features and crossings. The greens are bent grass and are average size by PGA Tour standards and can get quite fast depending on weather conditions.

There is not a lot of data to go on here as this is only the second time this course has hosted the tournament but judging by last year, length does not seem to be a huge advantage. Players that have accurate iron play and the ability to negotiate these tricky bent grass greens should go well here this week. Top stats to consider are par 4 and par 5 scoring, GIR, approach stats, SGTTG and SGP.

Last year’s champion Sang-Moon Bae will not be able to defend his title as he has to serve two years military service, which is a compulsory requirement in all South Korean men. However, there are some big names in the field including World No. 3 Rory McIlroy, No. 7 Justin Rose, Brooks Koepka, Hideki Matsuyama, Charl Schwartzel and Chris Kirk. The weather is set to be sunny, dry and warm with light winds with the possibility of some showers over the weekend.

 

Justin Rose 8/1 Frys.com Open 2015

Justin Rose 8/1

After taking the last couple of weeks off, Justin Rose comes into this week in good form. He had a great finish to the 2014/15 season at The Tour Championship where he finished T2 shooting a superb final round 66 at East Lake. He has been playing some great golf over the last couple of months. He lost a playoff to David Lingmerth at The Memorial finishing P2 and followed that with a T6 at The Open, T4 at The Quicken Loans, T3 at The WGC Bridgestone, solo fourth at The PGA, T16 at The Barclays and a T13 at The BMW.

Rose ticks a lot of statistical boxes ranking ninth in GIR, 18th in par 4 scoring, fourth in par 5 scoring and sixth in strokes gained tee to green. He also ranks first in approaches from 75-100, first in approaches from 175-200 and first in approaches from 200-225, which are good stats for approaches into the par 4’s and par 5’s. With top notch accuracy stats, Rose should score well here on his first visit to Silverado.

 

Hideki Matsuyama 18/1 Frys.com Open Betting Preview 2015

Hideki Matsuyama 18/1

After winning two and a half points for the International Team at The Presidents Cup last week, Hideki Matsuyama will come to California this week feeling good about his game. As well as playing super last week in Korea, Matsuyama has been playing well for the last few months with 14 top 25’s in his last 17 tournaments. He had a good week at The Barclays finishing T13 and followed that with a T25 at The Deutsche Bank, T7 at The BMW and a T12 in East Lake at The Tour Championship. He had a great week here last year finishing T3 on 12 under for the tournament.

Statswise he ranks 21st in GIR, eighth in strokes gained tee to green, third in par 4 scoring and 24th in par 5 scoring. He also ranks 14th in approaches from 125-150, seventh in approaches from 175-200 and 15th in approaches from 50-75. After a solid performance in Korea last week, Matsuyama could be a big danger man here.

 

Brooks Koepka 22/1 Frys.com Open 2015

Brooks Koepka 22/1

The young American has been playing steady golf all season on both The PGA Tour and The European Tour. He had a great week at The Alfred Dunhill Links recently finishing T2 after shooting 64,67 over the weekend to finish on 16 under for the tournament. He also played well in the FedEx Cup Finale finishing T18 at The Tour Championship. Koepka put in huge performances at this year’s majors finishing T18 at The US Open, T10 at The Open Championship and T5 recently at The PGA Championship.

His form at this event has been good over the last couple of years. He finished T8 here on this course last year and T3 at Cordevalle in 2013. Statswise he ranks 17th in GIR, 34th in strokes gained tee to green and 17th in strokes gained putting. He also ranks second in approaches from 175-200, 10th in approaches from 200, 10th in par 4 scoring and seventh in par 5 scoring. With good finishes at The Tour Championship and The Dunhill Links recently, Koepka is one of the better players in this field and could be one to keep an eye on here.

 

Robert Streb 35/1 Frys.com Open 2015

Robert Streb 35/1

I was quite surprised to see a player of Streb’s calibre priced at 35/1. After winning the McGladrey Classic at the beginning of last season, Streb went on to have a great year finishing with seven top 25’s in his last nine events. He lost a playoff to Danny Lee at The Greenbrier Classic finishing P2 and followed that with a T14 at The John Deere, T18 at The Open Championship, solo fifth at The Bridgestone, T10 at The PGA, T23 at The BMW and T18 at The Tour Championship.

He played this event last year and finished in a respectable T31. He ranks 27th in GIR, 24th in strokes gained putting and seventh in approaches from 200-225. He also ranks second in par 3 scoring and 18th in par 4 scoring which will be a big help here with its ten par 4’s and four par 3’s. Streb is a better player coming here this time around and is most certainly one of the better players in this field.

 

Steven Bowditch 80/1 Frys.com Open 2015

Stephen Bowditch 80/1

The Aussie was part of the losing Presidents Cup team last week but played quite well himself throughout the week. He was drawn to play Jimmy Walker in the Sunday Singles and beat him 2 up so his game looks in good shape. Along with his win at The Byron Nelson, Bowditch had a good finish to the season with three top 15’s in his last six events. He finished T12 at The WGC Bridgestone, T13 at The Barclays and T12 at The Tour Championship.

Bowditch played well here last year shooting 67,67 over the weekend to finish solo second. He ranks 11th in approaches from 125-150, third in scrambling, 25th in par 3 scoring and 30th in par 4 scoring. After a solid performance at The Presidents Cup, the Aussie comes here in good form and could go well at a decent price.

 

Final Selections –

Justin Rose 8/1 2pts EW

Hideki Matsuyama 18/1 1.5 pts EW

Brooks Koepka 22/1 1.5 pts EW

Robert Streb 35/1 1 pt EW

Stephen Bowditch 80/1 1 pt EW

Total staked = 14 pts

 

Good luck and enjoy the golf,

Doublebogey6

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