AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Betting Preview 2018

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro Am Betting Preview 2018Pebble Beach Golf Links, Pebble Beach, California  

The Courses:  

Pebble Beach Golf Links – Par 72, 6,816 yards 

Spyglass Hill – Par 72, 6,953 yards 

Monterey Peninsula – Par 71, 6,867 yards 

This tournament is played on three courses – Pebble Beach, Spyglass Hill and Monterey Peninsula. It is a Pro-Am format taking place on all three courses over the first three rounds with everyone playing Pebble Beach on Sunday. All the courses measure less than 7,000 yards and all feature four par fives with Monterey playing as a par 71 and Pebble beach and Spyglass Hill playing as par 72’s. 

Pebble Beach is widely known and is a beautiful seaside links on the coast of California. It has a lot of history to it playing host to the US Open five times and the PGA Championship once. It is quite short by PGA Tour standards and is quite generous and forgiving off the tee. Pebble’s main defence is its smaller than average greens, not to mention the windy weather this time of year. 

Spyglass Hill is fractionally different from the other two courses as it a bit tighter with its narrow, tree lined fairways. The trees can work in the players favor especially if the wind gets up. 

Monterey Peninsula is a par 71 and is usually the easiest of the three courses but the greens here are bigger and play fractionally faster than the other two courses so a hot putter and long drive will be the key to making birdies here. 

Judging by previous history good putters (especially on poa annua), good scrambling and hitting plenty of greens have been the ingredients to victory in this event.  

The grass type on the greens is the same as Torrey Pines at the Farmers Insurance Open a couple of weeks ago so take that into consideration. This course tends to favor the bigger hitters so making birdie or better on the majority of the 16 par 5’s played here this week will be a big plus.  

 

Jason Day 10/1 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Betting Preview 2018Jason Day 10/1  

After winning in Torrey Pines a couple of weeks ago, Jason Day looks in great shape coming to Pebble this week. He has been playing some decent golf over the last couple of months with five top 11’s and a win in his last eight competitive starts.  

Day finished in a respectable T9 at the PGA Championship back in August followed by a T6 at the Northern Trust Open in Glen Oaks shooting a 69 or better in three of his four rounds. The Aussie then travelled to the BMW Championship in Conway Farms finishing solo fourth which included an opening 64 and a second round 65.  

He started the new season off at the CJ Cup in Korea finishing T11 and followed that with another T11 at the WGC HSBC Champions in China. Day then made his way to Torrey Pines and played solid throughout the week shooting rounds of 73,64,71,70 to post 10 under for the tournament and ended up beating Swede Alex Noren in a playoff on Monday morning.  

He has played well here in the past with four top 11 finishes in his last five starts with form figures 5,11,4,MC,6 since 2013.  

Statswise Day ranks third in driving distance, 27th in GIR, 25th in SGP, sixth in SG of the tee and second in par 4 scoring. After winning on the poa annua greens of Torrey Pines a couple of weeks ago along with his excellent record here, Day looks a good shout here at 10’s.  

 

Patrick Reed 33/1 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Betting Preview 2018Patrick Reed 33/1 

Patrick Reed looks to be trending in the right direction lately and could be a player to keep on side this week.  

Reed has been in decent shape over the last few months with two top 11’s and two top 25’s in his last seven starts. He played well at the CJ Cup finishing T11 followed by a decent T5 at the Hero World Challenge in the Bahamas back in December.  

After missing the cut at the CareerBuilder Challenge, he bounced back with a T23 in Torrey Pines posting three under for the tournament and followed that with a top 20 last week in Phoenix shooting rounds of 71,66,69,67 to finish T17, so he looks to be going in the right direction form wise.  

Reed has some great memories of Pebble over the last few years with three top 15’s and two top 30’s in five appearances showing form figures 23,6,29,13,7 since 2013.  

The Texan has shown some great form on windy setups over the last few years with a win and two top 10’s in Kapalua, top 20’s at the Open Championship the last three years and a couple of top 10’s at Copperhead in Florida (home of the Valspar Championship) which boasts smaller than average greens by PGA Tour standards, just like Pebble.   

He ranks 31st in SGP, 27th in SGTTG and seventh in SG around the green. With a good mix of current/previous form here Reed looks decent value.   

 

Pat Perez 35/1 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Betting Preview 2018Pat Perez 35/1  

Since winning the CIMB Classic back in October, Pat Perez has continued his good form with two top 5’s and a top 25 in his last four starts.  

Following his impressive four shot victory over Keegan Bradley at the CIMB with rounds of 66,65,64,69, Perez then travelled to Korea for the CJ Cup finishing T5 which included an opening 69 and a final round 68. He then played in the WGC-HSBC Champions in China posting a respectable T24 which included a pair of 69’s.  

Perez had another solid week at the Sentry Tournament of Champions in windy Kapalua where he shot rounds of 72,66,71,69 finishing T4 on 14 under par in total.  

He has a good record here with three top 15’s in his last four starts finishing T14 last year, T4 in 2015 and T7 in 2014.  

Statswise the Californian ticks all the boxes here ranking third in driving accuracy, fifth in GIR, fifth in SG putting and 16th in both par 3 and par 4 scoring.  

It’s worth mentioning that Perez has a good record on tricky windy courses with top 10’s in Waialae (Sony open) and Torrey Pines (Farmers Insurance Open) over the last four years and is generally a strong west coast performer. With great current form so far this season and I expect him to have a decent week especially with his record here.  

 

Chesson Hadley 45/1  Chesson Hadley AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Betting Preview 2018

I like the look of the in-form Chesson Hadley on a course he has expressed his liking for in the past. Hadley has been playing well over the last couple of months with four top 5’s and a top 25 in his last eight starts.  

He began the season in style with a T3 at the Safeway Open, a solo second at the Sanderson Farms which included four rounds of 70 or better and a T4 at the Shriners Open in Vegas, which included a 65,68,69 over the weekend to post eight under par for the tournament.  

Hadley then went off the boil a bit with a couple of mediocre results but bounced back well with a T23 in Torrey Pines firing rounds of 71,72,71,71 showing some great consistency.  

Last week in Phoenix he cracked the top 10 shooting an opening 66 followed by three 68’s to finish T5 on 14 under. 

He has played well on this course before with back to back T10’s in 2014 and 2015. I had a look at some quotes from the Fantasy Golfanac and came across this gem from the man himself –  

Chesson Hadley – “It’s just an awesome old school golf course [Monterey Peninsula’s Shore Course]. The greens are really old poa annua and the course is, it kind of has, almost has a slight links feel to it. Pebble Beach is my favourite, that’s my favourite course ever, but this course is in awesome shape and like I said, the weather is, this is as good as it gets in golf.” 

Hadley ticks some key statistical boxes here ranking 37th in GIR, sixth in SGTTG, 37th in SG putting, first in par 3 scoring, 38th in par 4 scoring and 27th in par 5 scoring.  

 

Final selections – PP Paying 7 places on 1/5 odds

Jason Day 1pt EW 10/1  

Pat Perez 1pt EW 35/1  

Patrick Reed 0.5pts EW 33/1  

Chesson Hadley 0.5pts EW 45/1  

 

Good luck and enjoy the golf. 

Doublebogey6 

Follow me on Twitter @DoublebogeyDB6 

Follow me on Facebook www.facebook.com/Doublebogey6 

AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am 2015 Betting Preview

AT&T National Pebble Beach Pro Am Betting Preview and Tips
Pebble Beach Golf Links, Pebble Beach, California

The Courses:

Pebble Beach Golf Links – Par 72, 6,816 yards and has three par 5’s and five Par 3’s.
Spyglass Hill – Par 72, 6,858 yards and has four par 5’s and four par 3’s.
Monterey Peninsula – Par 71, 6,838 yards and has four par 5’s and four par 3’s

This tournament is played on three courses which include Pebble Beach, Spyglass Hill and Monterey Peninsula. This is a Pro-Am format and is the same as The Humana Challenge, taking place on all three courses over the first three rounds with everyone playing Pebble Beach on Sunday. All the courses measure less than 7,000 yards and all feature four par fives with Pebble beach and Spyglass Hill playing as par 71’s.

Monterey Peninsula is a par 72 because it has five par 3’s. Straight away we notice that length is not a huge issue here, but the main defence for these courses is the wind coming off the water on the Monterey Peninsula. The weather can be a factor with rain and wind being quite common in California this time of year.

There are a few different factors to consider. The first factor is grass type. The greens here are poa annua which is a grass that tends to be a bit bumpy. The greens are also quite small so be on the lookout for players with good GIR and scrambling stats. The grass type on the greens is the same as Torrey Pines and the setup of the tournament is similar to last week so players that had a good performance last week are also worth considering.

Previous winners here include Dustin Johnson (2010), DA Points (2011), Phil Mickelson (2012), Brandt Snedeker (2013) and Jimmy Walker (2014). For some strange reason, this course tends to favour the bigger hitters. There are 16 par 5’s played here this week so par 5 scoring is worth checking out. As I said above, players with good GIR and scrambling are also worth looking at. Guys with good par 3 scoring stats that are good poa annua putters should also go well here this week.

Jimmy Walker pic 1

Jimmy Walker 8/1
Jimmy Walker is on a great run of form at the moment and hasn’t finished worse than 15th in his last five events. He had a great performance at The Hyundai Tournament of Champions, where he lost to Patrick Reed in a playoff finishing on 21 under par for the tournament. The following week, he successfully defended The Sony Open in Waialae shooting 62,63 in round three and four to secure the victory by nine strokes over Scott Piercy.

Walker also played well last week at Torrey Pines finishing T7 on seven under for the week. He seems to perform well here at Pebble Beach with three top 10’s and a win in his last four appearances. He finished T9 in 2011, T9 in 2012, T3 in 2013 and won last year finishing on 11 under par for the tournament. By looking through his record over the last few years, it appears that Walker plays well on poa annua greens judging by his past performances here at Pebble and his previous top 10’s at Torrey Pines.

There are many characteristics on these courses at Pebble that are very similar to Waialae Country Club, where the Sony Open is played. Both courses have small greens and are sometimes prone to wind coming off the sea, which will play into Walker’s favour in a big way given his previous record on both courses. Statswise he ranks 14th in driving distance, 29th in GIR and 10th in strokes gained putting. He also ranks 11th in par 4 scoring and 17th in par 5 scoring, which are two very strong stats for these courses. He successfully defended The Sony a couple of weeks and there is no reason why he shouldn’t do it again here at Pebble this week.

Patrick Reed pic 2

Patrick Reed 16/1
Patrick Reed has been playing steadily for the last six months and hasn’t missed a cut since The Open Championship back in July last year. He has been in great form over the last few weeks with two top 10’s and a win in his last five events. He played well at The Hero World Challenge back in December finishing T3 on 15 under par for the tournament. He then had another good performance at The Franklin Templeton Shootout finishing T10 with partner Brandnt Snedeker.

It was at The Hyundai Tournament of Champions in Kapalua where Reed had his first victory of 2015. He shot a final round 67 and forced Jimmy Walker into a playoff, which he went on to win on the first playoff hole. He has played well here in the past finishing T7 in 2013 and T13 last year.

Reed averages 294 off the tee and ranks 15th in strokes gained total. His approach stats are good for attacking the par 4’s and par 5’s ranking seventh in approaches from 100-125 and seventh in approaches from 175-200. He also ranks first in scrambling and first in putts from nine feet, which will be a plus on these small greens.

JB Holmes PIc 1

JB Holmes 40/1
I really thought JB was unlucky not to win last week in Torrey Pines, where he finished P2. Although I tipped Jason Day and was delighted to see him win, he was very lucky to get up and down on the 18th after chipping out of the rough and nearly into the water with his third shot. That being said, Holmes looked very threatening in the final round and played some great approach shots. With the exception of his second shot on the second playoff hole, which was buried in the deep rough, his short game looked in great shape for the whole week and he looks to be coming into some good form.

He has played well here over the years and has only missed the cut once since 2007. His best finish was coming second to Dustin Johnson in 2010. He also has two top 16’s finishing T16 in 2007 and T13 in 2011. JB is hitting it an average of 300 yards off the tee ranking 29th in driving distance. He also has good stats for approaching the par 4’s and par 5’s ranking fifth in approaches from 200-225 and 25th in approaches from 100-125. With good previous form on this course and a great week at Torrey Pines last week, JB could go well at a decent price.

Shane Lowry pic 1

Shane Lowry 50/1
It was great to see Shane Lowry play so well last week in Torrey Pines finishing in a very respectable T7 on seven under for the tournament, which included a final round 68. His form over the last few months has been superb and has four top 16’ in his last six events on the European Tour. It started back at The Volvo World Matchplay in October, where he finished T9 and followed that with a T16 at The BMW Masters.

Most recently, he had a great finish to The European Tour season with a solo 5th at The DP World Tour Championship and followed that with a solo 11th at The Nedbank Golf Challenge in South Africa. Lowry has played well on windy courses in the past with a great performance at The Alfred Dunhill Links back in October, where he played well on Carnoustie, Kingsbarns and St Andrews finishing T6, not to mention a T9 in Hoylake at The Open Championship in July.

Spencer Levin Smoking

Spencer Levin 66/1
Spencer played well last week in Torrey Pines finishing T11 and six under par for the tournament. He shot a 74 in the final round which could have been a lot better if it weren’t for a few too many bogeys on the front nine. However he fought back well and shot a level par 36 on the back nine. His season has been mixed with three top 20’s in his last seven events. He started the season well with a respectable T21 at The Frys.com back in November and followed that with a T11 at The Shriners Open in Vegas.

Since then he went a little off the boil missing two cuts in a row, but bounced back with a solid performance last week. He has played well here at Pebble in the past with two top 10’s and a top 15 in his last five appearances. He finished 14th in 2009, T4 in 2011 and T9 in 2012. Statswise Levin ranks 20th in driving accuracy, 26th in GIR, 21st in strokes gained total, 44th in scrambling and 16th in par 4 scoring. With a good record on this course and a solid performance last week, Levin could be another player that could go well at a big price.

Final Selections –
Jimmy Walker 2 pts EW
Patrick Reed 1 pt EW
JB Holmes 1 pt EW
Shane Lowry 1 pt EW
Spencer Levin 1 pt EW
Total staked = 12 pts

Good luck and enjoy the golf,

Doublebogey6

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