Par 71, 7,101 yards.
This event has been played at Harbour Town Golf Links for many years now and the same players seem to play well here. The course is a short 7,101 yards and has three par 5’s, four par 3’s and 11 par 4’s. It is a tight course with tree lined fairways and small greens, which are ranked among the most difficult to hit on the PGA Tour. History suggests that the good, accurate ball strikers and good putters tend to do well around here. The greens here are quite small by Tour standards so GIR and good scrambling will be two key stats to look at. Hilton Head also tends to be quite windy so be on the lookout for good wind players.
The main stats to consider here are driving accuracy, GIR, par 4 scoring, scrambling and proximity to the hole. Unlike last week in Augusta National, you don’t need to be long on this course so a lot of the shorter more accurate players should come into the mix. Weather forecast is set to be mainly dry with a mix of sunny conditions and some scattered cloud with moderate winds.
After shooting an opening round 72 last week in Augusta, Johnson fell right back after a second round 80 and ended up missing the cut. Despite a disappointing second round, last weeks missed cut could be a big positive as he will be fresh coming into this week.
ZJ has been playing well lately and looked superb at the Matchplay. He looked to be hitting his irons beautifully and putted really well all week and got into the final 16 but just fell short losing against McIlroy losing the match one down. He has been going through an equipment change and seems to have settled in with some good performances over the last few weeks. He started the season with a T9 at the Sony and followed that with a T14 in Phoenix which included three rounds in the 60’s finishing seven under for the week. Johnson had another great week in Bay Hill recently at The Arnold Palmer Invitational shooting two 68’s over the weekend to finish solo fifth.
He has played well here in the past finishing sixth in 2007 and second in 2012. This tight track seems to suit his game and statistically he ranks 30th in GIR and 22nd in par 3 scoring. After some solid performances over the last few weeks Johnson looks to be in good form and a big contender here.
Snedeker played great golf last week in Augusta and looked to be putting very well on those tricky undulating greens. He eventually finished T10 after a final round 72 and has had a superb season so far which began with a T17 at The Frys and a win at The Franklin Templeton with partner Jason Dufner.
He started 2016 off with a T3 at The Hyundai Tournament of Champions, lost out in a playoff at The Sony in Hawaii and had a superb win in Torrey Pines which included a superb final round 69 in almost unplayable conditions. He had a bit of a dip in form but seems to be back contending over his last two events recording two top 10 in Augusta and The Matchplay.
Sneds has a good record here over the last few years finishing 16th in 2007, a win in 2011, 17th in 2012 and 26th last year. After two good recent performances Snedeker is one to keep on side here.
The accurate American started the season off with with a win and three top 10’s but has gone off the boil a bit lately. He played well in Augusta last week and shot two 72’s sandwiched between an opening 77 and a third round 76 to finish in a respectable T37. Kisner started the season with a solo second at The WGC HSBC in Shanghai, which included an opening round 64 and followed that with a win at The RSM Classic shooting 64, 64 over the weekend to seal the victory. Kisner then started 2016 off with a solo ninth at the Hyundai Tournament of Champions and a T5 at The Sony, which included an opening round 63.
He was unlucky not to win this event last year and lost to Jim Furyk on the second playoff hole, which would be his first of three playoff losses from last year. He ranks seventh in driving accuracy, 37th in GIR, fifth in par 4 scoring and 25th in par 5 scoring. After a decent performance last week on a course that shouldn’t really suit his game Kisner could be another one to watch here.
Casey has been back showing some good form over the last few weeks and comes here on the back of a T4 finish in Augusta last week and a T9 in Bay Hill. His Iron play in particular was superb and if the putter heated up a little bit he wouldn’t have been far away. He also had a good week in Doral finishing solo seventh at The WGC Cadillac which included two 68’s in round two and four.
Casey has played well here in the past finishing 11th in 2009, 22nd in 2010 and 18th in 2014. The Englishman ranks 20th in GIR, 21st in SGTTG and 33rd in par 4 scoring. His form is getting warm and Casey looks to be another player with a solid game for this course.
The young Englishman played superb over the weekend in Augusta shooting an impressive final round 67 to finish T7 for the week. Matt looked to be hitting a lot of fairways off the tee, hitting alot of green in regulation and lead GIR in the final round on Sunday in Augusta. He has been playing on US soil over the last few weeks finishing T35 in Doral at The WGC Cadillac and T38 at The Matchplay.
He doesn’t hit it a mile but he is known as one of the most accurate players around hitting over 60% of fairways off the tee and ranking 22nd in GIR. Matt finished 23rd here in 2014 and can better that performance after a superb week in Augusta.
Final selections –
Zach Johnson 22/1 1.5 pts EW
Brandt Snedeker 18/1 1.5 pts EW
Paul Casey 18/1 1 pt EW
Kevin Kisner 25/1 1pt EW
Matt Fitzpatrick 25/1 1pt EW
Total staked = 12 pts
Good luck and enjoy the golf,
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