US PGA Championship Betting Preview 2016

PGA Championship Betting Preview 2014Baltusrol Golf Club, Lower Course, Springfield, New Jersey

7,428 yards par 70

The Course

The Baltusrol Golf Club is a private 36-hole golf club in Springfield, New Jersey located about 30 km west of New York City. It was founded 121 years ago in 1895 by Louis Keller and was named after Baltus Roll, who farmed the land on which the club resides today.

In 1985, Baltusrol became the first club to have hosted both the U.S. Open and Women’s U.S. Open on two different courses. Both courses were originally designed by A. W. Tillinghast in 1918. The club’s original 9-hole course was designed by George Hunter in 1895, and expanded to 18 holes in 1898.  The first national championship on the Upper Course was the U.S. Open in 1936. Among the many major tournaments it has hosted, the club was most recently the site of the 2005 PGA Championship.

In 1948, Robert Trent Jones was retained to update and lengthen the Lower course for tournament play. The Lower course was lengthened again by his son Rees Jones in 1992 in preparation for the U.S. Open in 1993. He also updated and lengthened the Upper course in advance of the 2000 U.S. Amateur.

The course is spread out over rolling parkland with ponds and other man-made and natural hazards that come into play. It has four par 3’s, 12 par 4’s and only two par 5’s. The 4th hole and the 18th hole have ponds which will add a slight intimidation factor for the players. The three signature holes of the are the fourth, a par three of 194 yards where players must hit their ball over the pond to a two-tiered green; the seventeenth, a par five of 650 yards and the eighteenth, a par five of 533 yards which will be reachable in two for most of the field. The pond on the left hand side of the eighteenth has been made bigger since 2005 and could be a bit intimidating for the players with a draw or a fade for the leftys. Six of the par 4’s measure over 450 yards with the longest being the 505 yard 7th. The longest of the par 3’s is the 16th which measures a lengthy 230 yards.

This course is a tricky and lengthy par 70 with average size fairways. The rough looks like its going to be particularly penal so keeping it in the fairway will be advantageous. There will also be some tricky fairway bunkers to contend with so driving accuracy looks to be important. The greens are quite small and sloppy so GIR will be one stat to pay particular attention to here along with good putting.

Phil Mickelson won here back in 2005 on a score of four under par. Other previous winners at Baltusrol include Jack Nicklaus and Lee Janzen.

 

Rory McIlroy 8/1 US PGA Championship 2016 Betting PreviewRory McIlroy 8/1

The more I look at Baltusrol the more I think it could be a great fit for Rory. He fought hard for a T5 finish at Troon and was a bit unlucky with the draw and the weather. Despite that he still shot rounds of 69,71,73,67 to finish four under par in total. Rory has been playing well over the last few weeks with a win and four top 5’s in his last seven events. He had a good week at The Wells Fargo finishing T4 and followed that with a win at The Irish Open, T4 at Memorial, solo third at The French Open and a T5 at The Open.

He has a superb PGA Championship record with two wins which came in Valhalla in 2014 and Kiawah Island in 2012, a third place finish in 2010, T8 in 2013 at Oak Hill and a T17 last year in Whisling Straits. He ranks first in strokes gained off the tee, third in strokes gained tee to green and 13th in driving distance. With a great record at this event and good current form Rory looks a good bet here and the pick of the favs.

 

Henrik Stenson 16/1 USPGA Championship 2016 Betting PreviewHenrik Stenson 16/1

After the heroics of Royal Troon a couple of weeks ago The Swede looks to have his game in superb shape coming to Baltustrol. He broke all sorts of records at The Open and didn’t shoot worse than a 68 all week posting an impressive 20 under par in total. He also had a good week in Scotland finishing in a respectable T13 and recovered well after opening with a 76. Stenson has six top 25’s in his last nine starts and seems to be in the best form of his life. He played well in Houston finishing solo second and followed that with a T24 in Augusta, a T4 at The Nordea Masters, a win at The BMW International Open, a T13 in Castle Stuart and a win in Troon.

Statswise he ranks first in driving accuracy, second in GIR and seventh in SGTTG. He has played well in previous USPGA’s finishing 25th last year in Whistling Straits, third in 2014 in Valhalla and third in 2013 at Oak Hill. With Baltusrol demanding accuracy off the tee along with hitting plenty of greens this will be right up Stenson’s street and he could add a second major to his trophy cabinet this week.

 

Phil Mickelson 20/1 USPGA Championship 2016 Betting Preview Phil Mickelson 20/1

After going toe to toe with Stenson in Troon, Mickelson finished three strokes behind The Swede after shooting a superb final round 65 to finish solo second. He played great golf all week opening with an impressive 63 and followed that with a 69,70,65 over the weekend to finish 17 under par in total. Mickelson has been playing well this season with five top 30’s in his last seven starts. He played well at The Wells Fargo finishing T4 and followed that with a T20 in Memorial, T2 at The St Jude, T27 at The Bridgestone and a solo second at The Open.

He has won around Baltusrol in the past winning the 2005 USPGA Championship on four under par. He has a good record over the last few years finishing T12 in 2010 at Whistling Straits, T19 in 2011 in Athletic Club, second in 2014 in Valhalla and T18 last year in Whistling Straits. Statswise Phil ranks 16th in strokes gained tee to green, fourth in SGP, fist in par 3 scoring and 10th in par 5 scoring. With being a previous winner here in Baltusrol, a decent record in USPGA Championships and a superb performance at Troon recently, Phil has to have a good chance here.

 

Zach Johnson 55/1 USPGA Championship 2016Zach Johnson 55/1

Although Johnson isn’t the biggest hitter on Tour he may have the edge here with his accurate driving and great putting. He has been playing well over the last few weeks and hasn’t finished worse than T17 in his last four starts. He had a good week at The Dean and Deluca Invitational finishing T17 and followed that with a T8 at The US Open, T10 at The WGC Bridgestone and a T12 at The Open Championship in Troon which would have been a lot better if it weren’t for a third round 75. He has played well around Baltusrol before finishing T17 here in 2005.

He has decent PGA Championship form finishing third in 2010 at Whistling Straits and eighth in 2013 at Oak Hill. With great current form and a good performance here in ’05 Johnson is another player with a good chance here.

 

JB Holmes 66/1 USPGA Championship 2016J.B. Holmes 66/1

As we all know, J.B. can be a little bit unpredictable but after seeing his rather generous price I thought he was worth a look here. He played well in two of the last three majors finishing T4 in Augusta after a super final round 68, and solo third at The Open after shooting two 69’s over the weekend. He also finished T13 in Texas and T4 at Memorial recently after shooting 67,69 over the weekend so his current form is very good.

He finished T24 in Whistling Straits in 2010 and T24 again in Whistling Straits last year. Statswise he ranks second in driving distance and seventh in strokes gained off the tee which could be a big advantage around here. If he gets the putter rolling he could be one to watch here.

 

Jason Dufner 80/1 USPGA Championship 2016Jason Dufner 80/1

The 2013 Champion has had a decent season so far and seems to be returning to form lately with four top 25’s in his last seven events. He has won already this season shooting 64,65,64,70 to win the CareerBuilder Challenge back in January. He played well at The Byron Nelson finishing T24 and followed that with a T6 in Colonial, T8 at The US Open and T22 at The Open Championship in Troon.

His USPGA record in quite impressive. He finished fifth in 2010 at Whistling Straits, second in 2011, T27 in 2012 in Kiawah and a win in 2013 at Oak Hill. Dufner looks to have the game that could suit this course ranking eighth in GIR, 23rd in strokes gained tee to green and 16th in par 4 scoring. For a guy that’s a good record in this event and is playing well he looks a tad overpriced here.

 

Final selections – 

Rory McIlroy 2pts EW 8/1

Henrik Stenson 1.5pts EW 16/1 

Phil Mickelson 1.5pts EW 20/1 

Zach Johnson 1pt EW 55/1 

J.B. Holmes 1pt EW 66/1

Jason Dufner 1pt EW 80/1 

Total staked = 16 pts 

 

Good luck and enjoy the golf,

Doublebogey6

 

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Wells Fargo Championship Betting Preview 2016

Wells Fargo Championship Betting Preview 2016The Quail Hollow Club, Charlotte, North Carolina

7,562 yards, Par 72

The Course

The Quail Hollow Club is located in Charlotte and is a lengthy 7,562 yards. It has four par 5’s, four par 3’s and ten par 4’s. Previous winners include Rory McIlroy (2015 and 2010), J.B. Holmes (2014), Derek Ernst (2013), Rickie Fowler (2012), Lucas Glover (2011) and Sean O’Hair (2009).

The course was originally designed by golf course architect George Cobb in 1961 to capture the beauty as well as challenging terrain of the Piedmont region. In the intervening years, the course underwent a series of improvements, including modifications of several holes by Arnold Palmer in 1986, and a redesign by Tom Fazio in 1997 and 2003.

It has narrow, tree lined fairways which can be tricky to hit with bunkers and water hazards coming into play so accuracy and length off the tee will be important here. The final three holes are known as the green mile, which includes the 508 yard par 4 16th, the 221 yard par 3 17th and the tricky par 4 18th. The main stats that stand out here are driving accuracy/distance, par 4 and par 5 scoring, GIR and good previous/current form.

 

Rory McIlroy 9/2 Wells Fargo Championship Betting Preview 2016Rory McIlroy 9/2

Rory is playing some good golf at present with three top 10’s in his last four tournaments and has a superb record here in Quail Hollow. He completely dominated this event last year winning by a massive seven strokes and shot a 61 on the Saturday in round three.

He had a good week in Doral at The WGC Cadillac and held the 54 hole lead but sadly shot a final round 74 to finish T3. He followed that with a T27 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, solo 4th at the WGC Matchplay and a T10 in Augusta at The Masters.

McIlroy boasts a superb record on this course over the last few years. He has two wins and three top 10’s in six appearances in Quail Hollow. He won in 2010 and 2015 and came T8 in 2014, T10 in 2013 and 2nd in 2012. He also ticks a lot of boxes here ranking 13th in driving distance, 29th in GIR and first in par 5 scoring. Length will be a big plus around this course and we know that’s right up Rory’s street. With a superb record here and good current form Rory looks the man to beat.

 

Hideki Matsuyama 25/1 Wells Fargo Championship Betting Preview 2016Hideki Matsuyama 25/1

Matsuyama is a player to keep on side this week and could be a huge contender. He has two top 10’s in his last three starts and has already won on The PGA Tour this season beating Rickie Fowler in a playoff in Phoenix. He followed that win with a T11 at The Northern Trust Open in Riviera, T6 at The Arnold Palmer Invitational and a T7 at The Masters.

He has played well here in the past finishing in a respectable T20 last year and T38 in 2014. He ticks a lot of boxes here averaging just over n292 off the tee, 12th in GIR and fifth in SGTTG. He also ranks fifth in par 4 scoring and 16th in par 5 scoring. Matsuyama looks to be hitting the ball great lately and could improve on his finish from last year.

 

JB Holmes 30/1 Wells Fargo Championship Betting Preview 2016J.B. Holmes 30/1

Big hitting J.B has been playing well this season with six top 15’s in his last eight starts. He looked to be back his best after a shooting a 68 in the final round of The Masters to finish T4 and followed that with a respectable T13 in Texas. His good run of form started with a T6 in Torrey Pines at The Farmers Insurance Open, T6 in Phoenix, T11 in Riviera at the Northern Trust Open and a T11 the week before at The AT&T in Pebble Beach.

He has played well at this course in the past with a win in 2014 and a T9 in 2011. J.B is averaging over 310 off the tee ranking third in driving distance, 33rd in par 4 scoring and 17th in SGTTG. Holmes is playing solid golf at the moment and has the length to dominate the par 5’s and the long par 4’s.

 

Byeong Hun An 33/1 Wells Fargo Championship Betting Preview 2016Byeong Hun An 33/1 

He played well here last year finishing in a respectable T28. He ranks 25th in driving distance, 29th in GIR and 29th in par 4 scoring. With a good performance here last year Berger has the length and is playing well enough to go better again this time around.

Ben An came agonisingly close to winning his first PGA Tour event last week in New Orleans. He played solid all week shooting rounds of 68,68,65 to get into a playoff with Jamie Lovemark and Brian Stuard but was knocked out on the first playoff hole. He has been playing well on both tours lately finishing second last week in New Orleans and T9 at The WGC Dell Matchplay.

He started well on The European Tour earlier this year with T4 in Dubai which included a 69,65 over the weekend and followed that with a T5 in Abu Dhabi. He is no stranger to winning on the big stage with a huge win at the European Tour’s flagship event The BMW PGA Championship in Wentworth.

An is a big hitter averaging just under 300 yards off the tee and ranks 13th in GIR and 13th in SGTTG so far this season. He is a top class player and looks to have the game to suit this course.

 

Kevin Chappell 45/1 Wells Fargo Championship Betting Preview 2016Kevin Chappell 45/1

Chappell has been in great form over the last few weeks with three top 10’s in his last four starts. He played well at The Valero Texas Open a couple of weeks ago and finished T4 for the tournament. He came close to winning in Bay Hill the week before but was denied by the in from Jason Day and finished second. He went on to have a T26 at Riviera in The Northern Trust Open, second in Bay Hill, T9 at The RBC Heritage and a T4 in Texas.

Chappell has a good record at this event finishing 16th last year and 11th in 2014. He is averaging just under 300 yards off the tee and ranks 29th in par 4 scoring and 20th in strokes gained tee to green. He looks an in form player at the moment and looks good value to have a decent week here.

 

Final Selections – 

Rory McIlroy 3pts EW 9/2

Hideki Matsuyama 1pt EW 25/1 

J.B. Holmes 1pt EW 30/1 

Byeong Hun An 1pt EW 33/1 

Kevin Chappell 1pt EW 45/1 

Total staked = 14 pts 

 

Good luck and enjoy the golf,

 

Doublebogey6

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