Sony Open Betting Preview 2015

Sony Open pic 1

Waialae Country Club, Honalulu, Hawaii
Par 70, 7,044 yards

The Course
After a great week at The Hyundai Tournament of Champions, which saw Patrick Reed beat Jimmy Walker in a playoff, the PGA Tour stays in Hawaii and travels to Waialae Country Club, which is located east of Honolulu.

Waialae is a par 70 measuring 7,044 yards and sits on Maunalua Bay, which can be prone to windy conditions. It has 12 par 4’s, four par 3’s and just two par 5’s, which measure 499 and 521 yards and should be reachable in two by most of the field. This course is different from Kapalua with Waialae being a lot tighter and flatter with small greens. The fairways are narrow and tree lined, which will favour the more accurate players. The greens here are much smaller compared to the generously sized greens last week at The Plantation Course.

Although these fairways are a tighter, there are also a lot of fairway bunkers to contend with so driving accuracy will be important this week. The tiny greens are Bermuda grass and are guarded by hazards, so look out for good GIR stats, good scramblers and good Bermuda putters with an emphasis on strokes gained tee to green.

Jimmy Walker pic 1

Jimmy Walker 16/1
After the disappointment of losing dramatically to Patrick Reed at The Hyundai Tournament of Champions, Jimmy Walker didn’t really put a foot wrong and played solid all week. I really thought he putted very well making a lot of putts when it mattered. He has been playing well so far this season with three top 15’s in his last five starts, including a T9 at The Franklin Templeton Shootout with partner Ryan Palmer.

Walker finished T4 at The Shriners Open, 15th at The Hero World Challenge just before Christmas and second last week at The Hyundai. He has played well at Waialae, winning this tournament last year and finishing solo fourth in 2011. Walker ranks 27th in strokes gained tee to green, 14th in GIR from 200+ yards, 17th in approaches from 100-125 yards and 10th in approaches from 125-150. With good previous form on this course and good GIR stats, Jimmy Walker looks a solid bet after coming so close last week.

Chris Kirk 3

Chris Kirk 20/1
After a course record equalling 62 in Kapalua on Monday, Chris Kirk is showing some good form coming back to a course where he has played so well on in the past. He has two top 10’s here in the last two years finishing solo second last year and T5 in 2013. He hasn’t finished no worse than 16th in his last four starts showing a lot of consistency. He started the season well with a T4 at The McGladrey and followed that with a respectable T14 at The WGC HSBC Champions.

Just before Christmas, he finished solo 16th at The Hero World Challenge and then put together rounds of 68,76,73,62 in Kapalua, finishing T14 on thirteen under for the week. Kirk ranks 27th in strokes gained putting, first in approaches from 100-125, fourth in approaches from 50-75 and 19th in approaches from 250-275. He also has good putting stats, ranking fourth in putts from 10-15 feet, which should be a big plus on these small Bermuda greens.

Tim Clark 1

Tim Clark 33/1
Tim Clark has been playing well over the last couple of months finishing second at The WGC HSBC in Shanghai back in November and T7 at The Nedbank Golf Challenge in South Africa the week before Christmas. Other than a disappointing second round 75, Tim was quite solid last week at The Hyundai shooting a 70 in round one and following that with 67,71 in round three and four finishing T25.

He has a good record here finishing solo second in 2013 and T2 in 2011. He was forced to withdraw from this event last year but seems to be injury free after competing last week. Clark ranks 27th in driving accuracy, 21st in approaches from 100-125 and 16th in approaches from 150-175, which are good stats for approaching some of the 12 par 4’s here. With this course being short, tight and tricky with small greens, this course seems to suit Clark’s game.

Russell Henley pic 1

Russell Henley 28/1
With an opening round 65 last week in Kapalua, Russell Henley recorded his second top five in his last three events finishing T3 at The Hyundai TOC on Monday, shooting an impressive final round 67. He started his season at The McGladrey Classic back at the end of October, where he shot rounds of 68,63,68,69 to finish twelve under par and T4 for the tournament. He also played well at the end of last season posting a T2 at The Deutsche Bank and a solo 12th at The Tour Championship.

Henley won this event back in 2013 shooting three 63’s and a third round 67 to finish on 24 under par, three strokes better than his closest challenger Tim Clark. Statswise, Russell is hitting 73% of greens and ranks fifth in strokes gained putting and 11th in birdie average. He also ranks second in par 4 performance, 15th in putts from 10-15 feet and 12th in putts from 20-25 feet, which is a big plus on these small, tricky Bermuda greens.

First Round Leader –

Jimmy Walker 25/1
Walker hasn’t shot worse than a 69 in his last eight rounds in Waialae and could start strongly. He opened with a 66 last year, 69 in 2013 and a 68 in 2011. He also shot a 67 or better in five of his last eight rounds here, one of which was a 63 in the final round last year. He carded a 69 or better in three of his last four competitive rounds and given his performance in Kapalua, he could start well and go very low again here in round one.

Chris Kirk 28/1
Chris Kirk is another player that has gone very low around this course carding a 69 or better in his last eight rounds in Waialae. He has shot a 66 or better in five of his last eight rounds including a 64 in the first round last year and a 62 in round three in 2013. Kirk has opened with a round in the 60’s in three of his last four competitive rounds and looks in great shape after a course record equalling 62 last Monday in Kapalua.

Final Selections –
Jimmy Walker 16/1 2 pts EW
Chris Kirk 20/1 1 pt EW
Tim Clark 33/1 1 pt EW
Russell Henley 28/1 1 pt EW

First Round Leader –
Jimmy Walker 25/1 1 pt EW
Chris Kirk 28/1 1 pt EW

Total staked = 14 pts

Good luck and enjoy the golf,

Doublebogey6
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Wyndham Championship Betting Preview 2014

Wyndham Championship.jpg pic 2014

Sedgefield Country Club, Greenboro, North Carolina
Par 70, 7127 yards

The Course
After all the excitement of The PGA Championship in Valhalla last week, the PGA Tour now travels to North Carolina for the Wyndham Championship, which is the last event before the FedEx Cup playoffs.

Sedgefield Country Club has been the host of this event for the last six years following a spell in Forest Oaks Country Club that ended in 2007. Sedgefield has small undulating greens, forgiving tree lined fairways and is quite short by PGA Tour standards. There wouldn’t be a huge emphasis on driving distance, but driving accuracy will be a big plus here. Par 3 and par 4 scoring will be important as there are 12 par 4’s, two par 5’s and four par 3’s.

The greens are tricky and undulating with some having big slopes so finding the right part of the green with your approach shots will be key this week. Good putters with good GIR, par 3 and par 4 scoring stats should be worth looking at here.

Bill Haas pic 1

Bill Haas 28/1
After a respectable six under par total finishing T27 in Valhalla last week, local boy Bill Haas comes here showing some steady form. With the exception of a W/D at The RBC Heritage, Bill hasn’t missed a cut once so far this season. He hasn’t exactly been in brilliant form, but he has played well the last few weeks with a top 10 at The Memorial back in June finishing in T8 and followed that with two top 20’s at The Greenbrier and The PGA in Valhalla last week.

He is very much a horse for the course here with two top 10’s and two top 20’s in his last six appearances. His best finishes came back in 2012 where he clinched a T7 and again in 2009 finishing T10. With a mediocre field this week, I think Bill has a big chance here.

Tim Clark 28/1
When it comes to short par 70’s, Tim Clark is the man to keep an eye on. He had a great week at The RBC Canadian Open shooting two opening 67’s and finishing 64, 65 to be crowned the winner on 17 under over Jim Furyk. Clark also played well the week before at TPC Deere Run settling for a T5, which included a second round 63 and third round 64.

Tim is another player with a good history at this event finishing a respectable T26 last year, second in 2012 and sixth in 2008. Statswise, he ranks third in driving accuracy, ninth in par 3 performance, first in proximity to the hole, first in GIR from 75-100 yards and 15th in GIR from 125+, which will be a big help with approaches into the 12 par 4’s.

Brian Harman pic 1

Brian Harman 33/1
After a brilliant performance at The John Deere Classic shooting rounds of 63,68,65,66 on his way to victory and 22 under par in total, Brian Harman is another man to keep your eye on here at Sedgefield this week. Since winning a few weeks ago, Harman hasn’t missed a cut in his last three events. He finished in a respectable T26th at The Open, 65th in Firestone and T41 last week in Valhalla, bearing in mind that two of these were majors and the other was a WGC.

However, Brian finished well here last year with a T3 and could be more comfortable with the field this week being similar to when he won the John Deere a couple of weeks ago. Harman ranks 11th in par 3 performance, 22nd in approaches from 100-125 yards and 13th in approaches from 150-175 yards, which will be a big plus hitting approaches into the par 4’s.

Nick Watney 40/1
Nick Watney has had come into some form late in the season and has posted three top 12 finishes including a top 10 in his last seven starts. His form took a turn for the better at The Travellers where he posted a ten under par total to finish T11. He then had another good week at The Canadian Open shooting four steady rounds to settle for a T12 and then followed that with a T8 at The Barracuda Championship.

Last week at Valhalla, Watney opened with two 69’s and finished 70,72 to post a respectable T33 and four under for the tournament. He ranks 10th in total driving, fourth in proximity to the hole and 48th in GIR. His best finish here is T31 back in 2012 but he comes into this week in much better form.

Carl Pettersson pic 1

Carl Pettersson 40/1
With two top 10’s in his last five starts, Pettersson comes here in reasonable form and should be well rested after taking last week off. He played well at The FedEx St Jude and finished T3 after shooting four very consistent rounds in the 60’s. Carl then did the same the following week at The Travellers Championship finishing T7 and 11 under for the tournament. It’s worth noting that both TPC Southwind and TPC River Highlands are both par 70’s, which seems to suit Pettersson’s game.

He has a superb record at this event with a win in 2008 and back to back T4’s in 2011 and 2012. He has proven he is a real horse for the course and shouldn’t be underestimated here at Sedgefield this week.

Final Selections
Bill Haas 1.5 pts EW
Tim Clark 1.5 pts EW
Brian Harman 1 pt EW
Carl Pettersson 1 pt EW
Nick Watney 1 pt EW
Total staked = 12 pts

Good luck and enjoy the golf,

DB

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Wyndham Championship Betting Preview

Wyndham Championship Betting Preview

Aug 15-18 Sedgefield CC, Greensboro, NC

 

 

Last week at Oak Hill –

What a week Mr Dufner had at Oak Hill, breaking his major duck to take the Wanamaker Trophy. He played flawless golf all week, shooting four great rounds including a second round course record of 63. I have to say, he was on my shortlist last week but I didn’t think he would go all the way so that was why I didn’t tip him. How wrong I was. It wasn’t all lost last week securing another two places in a major championship, with Stenson getting a solo third and Adam Scott finishing in tied 5th. Overall, profit was made so I can’t complain. Anyway, let’s move onto this week at The Wyndham in North Carolina.

 

 

Tim Clark 50/1

I actually backed Tim in this tournament last year when he placed solo 2nd to eventual winner Sergio Garcia. I just think this course really suits him with a solo second last year and a good finish in 2008, finishing in tied 6th. Tim’s recent form hasn’t been great with two missed cuts in his last five starts, however, there have been signs of good form, albeit a bit streaky, with three top 10’s under his belt already this season, most recently at The Crowne Plaza Invitational at the end of May, finishing in tied 7th. He also finished solo second at The Sony Open at the start of the season and tied 9th at The Accenture Matchplay. It’s important to note that Tim is 1st in Driving Accuracy on The PGA Tour this season, which will most certainly help here. He is also 10th in GIR percentage between 100-125 yards and 12th in approaches from 75-100 yards. For a player that has a good record here, he is most certainly worth considering at 50/1.

 

Chris Kirk 50/1

Kirk is another player, like Tim Clark, that could go well around here this week. Kirk had a top 10 finish at The Sanderson Farms Championship finishing in tied 9th a couple of weeks back and followed that up with a tied 21st finish at The RBC Canadian Open, so he is showing some form lately. Kirk has had 3 top 10’s this year finishing in tied 5th at The Sony Open in January, solo 2nd at The AT&T National and, most recently, tied 9th at The Sanderson Farms. Kirk ranks 24th in Strokes Gained, 10th in Birdie Average, 1st in Par 4 or better leaders, 5th in Birdie or better conversions and 6th in The All Around. Finishing tied 22nd last year with 4 good rounds of 66,69,69,67, he certainly has the game and potential to go one step further here. Very much a dark horse.

 

Patrick Reed 66/1

Reed is a really in form player at the moment with 3 top 10 finishes in his last 6 starts. He finished tied 9th at The RBC Canadian Open, tied 7th at The John Deere Classic and 5th on his own at The FedEx St Jude Classic. Stats wise he ranks 53rd in Driving Distance, 45th in Strokes Gained Putting, 14th in Sand Saves, 50th in Birdie Average and 31st in The All Around. As I said above, Reed is an in form player at the moment and I for one, was surprised to see him at such a high price considering his current form and stats, could be a serious each way contender here this week.

 

Hideki Matsuyama 33/1

This man has had a phenomenal start to his professional golf career, not finishing any higher than 21st since a missed cut in The Sony Open at the start of the year. This is the second time I’ve backed Matsuyama this season, backing him in The RBC Canadian Open, where he finished a respectable tied 16th. Two top 10’s in Major Championships this year, with a tied 10th finish at The US Open in Merion, beating some of the world’s best players, and following that with a tied 6th finish at The Open Championship in Muirfield. He had a respectable finish last week in PGA Championship finishing in a tie for 19th place. He ranks 19th in Eagles, 1st in Scoring Average, 12th in Par 3 or better leaders and 1st in Final Round Scoring Average. All in all, I reckon he is a great bet this week and is certainly worth backing at 33/1.

 

Zach Johnson 16/1

I backed Zach last week in Oak Hill where he got his 4th top 10 finish in a row, finishing in tied 8th place. The week before that he finished tied 4th at The Bridgestone Invitational, then finished tied 6th at The Open Championship at Muirfield. The week previously to that he lost in a playoff to Jordan Speith at The John Deere Classic. His 5th top 10 finish of the season so far came back in May finishing in third on his own at The Crowne Plaza Invitational. So it’s fair to say, he is most certainly an in form man at the moment. Stats wise he ranks 12th in Driving Accuracy, 60th in Strokes Gained Putting, 47th in Scoring Average and 4th in GIR Percentage between 125-150 yards. Stats combined with current form make Johnson lethal here this week, in my opinion.

 

Final Selections –

Tim Clark 1.5 pts ew/3 pts total

Chris Kirk 1pt ew/ 2 pts total

Patrick Reed 1pt ew/ 2 pts total

Hideki Matsuyama 1.5 pts ew/ 3 pts total

Zach Johnson 2pts ew/ 4 pts total

Total Staked = 14

 

Best of luck and enjoy the golf,

 

DoubleBogey6                                                                      

 

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