PGA Championship Betting Preview 2017 – Quail Hollow

PGA Championship Betting Preview 2017The Quail Hollow Club, Charlotte, North Carolina  

7,600 yards, Par 71

The Course 

Quail Hollow is the host course of the Wells Fargo Championship since 2003 and is a tough test measuring a lengthy 7,600 yards. Previous winners here include Brian Harman (2017), James Hahn (2016), Rory McIlroy (2015 and 2010) J.B. Holmes (2014), Derek Ernst (2013), Rickie Fowler (2012) and Lucas Glover (2011). 

The course was originally designed by golf course architect George Cobb in 1961 to capture the beauty as well as challenging terrain of the Piedmont region. In the intervening years, the course underwent a series of improvements, including modifications of several holes by Arnold Palmer in 1986, and a redesign by Tom Fazio in 1997 and 2003. 

The course has undergone some fairly big changes in preparation for this event and promises to a little more challenging than in previous years. They greens have had some major surgery changing from bentgrass to Bermuda. A lot of trees have also been removed to allow for more sunlight to hit the greens and re-shape the golf course. Some of the opening holes have had some renovations done with the old first and second being brought together and posing as a testing 540 yard par 4. The fifth has been changed from a par 5 to a par 4, the eighth hole is now a driveable 340 yard par 4 and the second hole is now a new par 3. The 11th hole has been lengthened and had some extra bunkers added to it.

Length looks to be a huge advantage along with hitting plenty of greens. The main stats that stand out here are driving distance, par 4 and par 5 scoring, GIR and good previous/current form.  

 

Hideki Matsuyama 11/1 PGA Championship Betting Preview 2017Hideki Matsuyama 11/1 

Matsuyama was outstanding last Sunday in the final round in Firestone shooting a flawless 61 to win his second WGC title and his third PGA Tour win this season. Its hard to find any fault in any part of his game from driving it bullet straight to stitching his approach shots and holing everything on the greens.

His form has been pretty good this season and he seems to be really heating up lately with a win, a top five and a top 15 in his last three starts. He had a great week in Erin Hills finishing T2 at the US Open after an impressive final round 65. He followed that with a T14 at The Open Championship in Royal Birkdale and seemed to be striking the ball very well but missed a few putts. Matsuyama won in Phoenix earlier this year which also has Bermuda greens so that looks to be a big positive for this weeks venue.

His record around Quail Hollow is decent finishing T38 in 2014, T20 in 2015 and 11th last year. Statswise he ranks 22nd in driving distance averaging just over 304 off the tee. He also ranks sixth in GIR, first in par 5 scoring and second in par 4 scoring. He is the man in form coming to the PGA this week and it could be his time to win his first major.

 

Rickie Fowler 16/1 PGA Championship Betting Preview 2017Rickie Fowler 16/1 

Rickie Fowler is another player in fine form coming into this week and has to be respected here. He has four top 10’s in his last six starts three of which were top fives. He had a good week at the Memorial finishing T2 and followed that with a T5 at The US Open and a T3 at the Quicken Loans National which included a 68,65 over the weekend. He then travelled to Birkdale and didn’t shoot worse than a 71 to finish a respectable T22. Last week at the WGC Bridgestone, Fowler was steady as a rock throughout the week shooting 70,71,67,66 on his way to a solo ninth.

He has a good record here in Quail Hollow getting his first PGA Tour win here in 2012. He also finished T6 in 2010 and T4 last year. Fowler is averaging just over 300 yards off the tee ranking 32nd in driving distance, 36th in GIR, first in SG putting and fifth in par 5 scoring. With great current form and a good history on this course, Fowler looks another big contender here.

 

Daniel Berger 60/1 PGA Championship Betting Preview 2017Daniel Berger 60/1

I am sticking to my guns and backing Berger for the second week running here. He has been in great form lately with a win and two top 5’s in his last six starts. He had a great week at the FedEx St Jude Classic shooting two 66’s to win by one. He followed that with a solo second at the Travelers where he lost in a dramatic playoff to Jordan Speith. He then traveled to TPC Deere Run where he finished T5 at the John Deere Classic  which included an impressive third round 63.

Berger has played well here in the past finishing T17 last year and T28 in 2015. He has played well in the Majors over the last couple of years finishing T10 in Augusta last year, T27 at the Masters this year and a T27 at The Open in Birkdale. Statswise he ranks 44th in GIR, 26th in SG putting, 24th in SGTTG, 18th in par 4 scoring and 21st in par 5 scoring.

 

Tony Finau PGA Championship Betting Preview 2017Tony Finau 80/1 

When it comes to bombers, Tony Finau is up there with the longest on tour off the tee and this could be a course that suits his powerful game. He looks to be in great shape coming to Quail Hollow with two top 10’s and two top 30’s in his last four starts. He played well at the Travelers Championship and didn’t shoot worse than a 70 all week to finish a respectable T17. He followed that with a T29 at The Quicken Loans and a T7 at The Greenbrier where he didn’t shoot worse than a 69 throughout the week. Finau then travelled to Royal Birkdale and finished in a respectable T27 at The Open and had a great performance in Canada a week later finishing T5 at the Canadian Open.

He has played well here in the past finishing T16 in 2015 and T28 last year. Finau is averaging just over 306 yards off the tee ranking sixth in driving distance, fifth in GIR, sixth in SGTTG, 10th in par 4 scoring and 10th in par 5 scoring. With great current form, a long golf course and an average drive of over 300 yards, this course could set up well for big hitting Finau.

 

Xander Shauffele PGA Championship Betting Preview 2017Xander Shauffele – Top 20 Finish – 4/1 

The young American has made quite an impression this season and looks to be playing some great golf lately. He had a good week at the US Open shooting rounds of 66,73,70,69 to finish T5 at Erin Hills in his first major appearance. He followed that with a T14 at the Travelers, a win at the Greenbrier Classic where he didnt shoot worse than a 69, a T20 at the Open Championship and a T13 in Firestone last week at the WGC Bridgestone.

Statswise Shauffele ticks alot of boxes here for Quail Hollow ranking 17th in driving distance averaging just over 305 off the tee. He also ranks 20th in GIR, 23rd in SG Putting and 10th in par 4 scoring. He has put together some huge performances in big events this season and with his length he looks a great bet for a top 20 this week.

 

Final Selections – 

Hideki Matsuyama 11/1 1pt EW

Rickie Fowler 16/1 1pt EW

Daniel Berger 60/1 0.5pts EW

Tony Finau 80/1 0.5pts EW

Xander Shauffele Top 20 – 4/1 2pt win 

Total staked = 8pts 

*Most bookies paying 8 places*

 

Good luck and enjoy the golf,

Doublebogey6

 

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Deutsche Bank Championship Betting Preview 2015

 

Deutsche Bank Championship 2015 FedExCup Playoffs

Field: Top 100 in FedExCup Standings 

TPC Boston, Norton, MA 

Par 71, 7,242 yards

The Course

This week the FedExCup Playoffs travels to TPC Boston where it has hosted this event since 2003. It is a par 71 layout with three par 5’s, four par 3’s and 11 par 4’s and has a tendency to give up very low scores. Chris Kirk was the winner last year finishing on 15 under par and Henrik Stenson won here in 2013 finishing on 22 under par.

Other previous winners include Rory McIlroy (2012), Webb Simpson (2011), Charley Hoffman (2010), Steve Stricker (2009) and Vijay Singh (2008). When you see the list of previous winners, it certainly indicates that the cream certainly rises to the top.

This course has 11 par 4’s, four par 3’s and three par 5’s. The greens are wide and forgiving and should suit the big hitters. They also offer players the opportunity to be aggressive so be on the lookout for guys with good GIR, strokes gained tee to green and strokes gained putting stats.  With 11 par 4’s, par 4 scoring is another stat worth checking. There will also be a particular emphasis on birdie average as this event has been a bit of a birdie fest over the years.

The fairways here are quite wide and forgiving so driving accuracy will not be as important as driving distance. The par 5 second and 18th will be reachable in two for most of the field so there will be a particular emphasis on ball striking and distance.

 

Jason Day 6/1 Deutsche Bank Championship

Jason Day 6/1

It’s hard to leave out Day after yet another superb performance last week and playing with such dominance over the last few weeks. After last week’s win at The Barclays that makes it four wins for Jason Day this season. He won the Farmers Insurance Open back in February beating J.B. Holmes in a playoff and followed that with a superb win at The RBC Canadian Open, a win at The PGA in Whistling Straits and a win last week in Plainfield which makes that three wins in his last four starts.

Day has played well here in the past finishing T7 last year, T13 in 2013, third in 2011 and second in 2010. He ranks third in driving distance, ninth in GIR, eighth in strokes gained tee to green and second in strokes gained putting. He also ranks first in par 3 scoring and second in par 4 scoring. With absolutely superb current form and good course form here at TPC Boston over the years, Jason Day is without a doubt the man to beat here this week.

 

Henrik Stenson 14/1 Deutsche Bank Championship 2015

Henrik Stenson 14/1

The Swede cones here after a great performance last week at The Barclays finishing solo second on 13 under for the tournament. He seems to be coming into some form just at the right time with a solo second last week, T25 at The PGA and a T6 at The WGC Bridgestone in his last three tournaments. Stenson has played well at this event in the past finishing T26 last year and a win here in 2013.

He also ticks a lot of statistical boxes averaging just under 300 yards off the tee and ranks 14th in driving accuracy. He ranks first in GIR, second in strokes gained tee to green and 22nd in strokes gained putting. He also ranks sixth in par 4 scoring and looks to be hitting form at just the right time. With a good history here and good current form, Stenson could have another good week here.

 

Bubba Watson 22/1 Deutsche Bank Championship 2015

Bubba Watson 22/1

Bubba is playing great golf at present and has a win and three top 3’s in his last seven events. He won the Travelers Championship beating Paul Casey in a playoff an followed that with a T13 at The Greenbrier, solo second at The RBC Canadian Open, solo second at The WGC Bridgestone, T21 at The PGA and a solo third last week at The Barclays. He has played well here at TPC Boston over the years with his best finishes coming in 2011 finishing T16 and T12 in 2006.

Watson should suit this course with his length and ranks second in driving distance averaging just over 316 yards off the tee, perfect for these wide fairways. He also ranks 23rd in GIR, first in strokes gained tee to green and fifth in birdie average. He ranks ninth in par 3 scoring, eighth in par 4 scoring and first in par 5 scoring. Bubba is in fine form at the moment and that could continue here at TPC Boston.

 

Brooks Koepka 40/1 Deutsche Bank Championship FedExCup Playoffs

Brooks Koepka 40/1

I wouldn’t be too concerned about Brooks missing the cut last week at The Barclays, in fact I think it could do him some good coming into this week after a bit of a rest last weekend. He is another player in fine form with five top 10’s and two top 20’s in his last seven starts. His good run of form started back at The Fedex St Jude where he finished T3 and followed that with a T18 in Chambers Bay, T10 at The Open Championship and a T18 at The RBC Canadian Open. He then had three top sixes in a row finishing T6 at The WGC Bridgestone, T5 at The PGA and T6 at The Wyndham.

I reckon Brooks should suit this course averaging 309 off the tee ranking seventh in driving distance, 11th in GIR, 22nd in strokes gained tee to green and 11th in strokes gained putting. He also ranks 17th in birdie average, sixth in par 4 scoring and fourth in par 5 scoring. Koepka should be well rested after a weekend off last week and should go well on a course that could suit his game.

 

Tony Finau 70/1 Deautsche Bank Championship FedExCup Playoffs

Tony Finau 70/1

The big hitting Tony Finau should be another player that could suit TPC Boston and comes here with ten top 25’s in his last 12 starts. He looks to be showing some great consistency over the few months and was right in the mix at The Barclays after the first two rounds. Finau’s good run of form began back at The Wellls Fargo where he finished T16. He followed that with a T19 in Colonial, T10 at The Byron Nelson, T8 at Memorial, T14 in Chambers Bay and T13 at The Greenbrier. Most recently, Finau finished T22 at The RBC Canadian Open, T10 at The PGA and T16 last week at The Barclays, which he lead after 54 holes.

He averages 309 off the tee ranking eighth in driving distance, 29th in strokes gained tee to green and seventh in birdie average. He also ranks 20th in par 4 scoring and 34th in par 5 scoring and looks to be in fine form coming to a course that could suit his game.

 

Final Selections –

Jason Day 3pts EW 6/1

Henrik Stenson 2pts EW 14/1

Bubba Watson 2pts EW 22/1

Brooks Koepka 1pt EW 40/1

Tony Finau 1pt EW 70/1

Total Staked = 18 pts

 

That’s all from me this season folks, I’m away on holidays for the next couple of weeks and will not be covering the last two FedexCup events. Ill be back for the first PGA Tour event of the new season in October.

Many thanks for reading my posts and best of luck for the last two events, lets finish on a high note this week!

Chat to you in October,

Doublebogey6

 

 

John Deere Classic Betting Preview 2015

John Deere Classic Betting Preview 2015

TPC Deere Run, Silvis, Illinois

7,268 yards, par 71

Over the years, some big names have dominated this event namely the in form Jordan Spieth, Steve Stricker and Zach Johnson. TPC Deere Run is a 7,268 yard par 71 and has three par 5’s, four par 3’s and 11 par 4’s with the average winning score being roughly 18 under par. With the three par 5’s all reachable in two and the fairly easy par 4’s, there will be a lot of birdies on offer, which explains the extremely low scoring over the years. The course sits along rolling woodlands alongside a rock river and has some small ponds and ravines.  It also has rolling fairways that are quite generous off the tee so driving accuracy won’t be hugely important.

The course has undergone elevation changes on several holes. The 14th is a downhill par 4 measuring just 358 yards and can be drivable in the right conditions. There is also water present on five holes, but shouldn’t pose too much of a problem for the players. This course is relatively easy but will demand good putting and accurate approach shots in order to make birdies. The key stats to look at here are approaches from 125-150, par 4 scoring, strokes gained putting, GIR, previous history and current form.

 

Zach Johnson John Deere Classic 9/1

Zach Johnson 9/1

There is no other player in the field with a better record at TPC Deere Run than Zach Johnson. He has a win here in 2012, second last year, second in 2013, third in 2011 and second again in 2009. He has been showing some great form recently finishing solo sixth at The Travelers, solo fifth at the Byron Nelson, T19 in Colonial and T13 at The Players Championship in Sawgrass.

Johnson also ticks a lot of boxes statistically ranking ninth in driving accuracy, 16th in strokes gained tee to green, 10th in approaches from 50-125 yards and 17th in approaches from 150-175, which are two good stats for approaches into the par 4’s. He also ranks 35th in par 4 scoring and 34th in par 5 scoring. With great current form and a great history here, Johnson is playing well enough to record his second win here at TPC Deere Run this week.

 

Kevin Kisner 16/1 John Deere Classic

Kevin Kisner 16/1

We came close to landing Kisner at 30/1 last week at The Greenbrier, where he sadly lost in a playoff to David Hearn and Danny Lee. Despite that, he played very well in the final round shooting a superb final round 64. That sadly makes him 0/3 in playoffs this season, however a win doesn’t look to far away and it could very well come this week at TPC Deere Run, where he finished in a respectable T20 last year.

Kisner has a further five top 12’s in his last seven starts and lost two playoffs against, the first of which came at The RBC Heritage losing to Jim Furyk and second was at The Players Championship losing to Rickie Fowler. He followed that with a T5 at The Crowne Plaza Invitational in Colonial, which included three 67’s and a 69. He then finished T8 at The Memorial and followed that with a T12 at The US Open in Chambers Bay.

Staswise he ranks 18th in driving accuracy, 40th in strokes gained tee to green and 14th in approaches from 225-250, which is a good stat for approaches into the par 5’s. He also ranks 10th in scrambling, 24th in par 3 scoring, 22nd in par 4 scoring and 27th in par 5 scoring. With great current form and missing out on three playoffs recently, this could be the week Kisner gets his long awaited win.

 

Brian Harman 33/1 John Deere Classic

Brian Harman 33/1

The 2014 champion comes here in good form this week after playing well recently at The Travelers finishing solo third and was unlucky not to win. He was very steady throughout the week shooting rounds of 66,65,65,69 to finish 15 under for the tournament. Harman also played well at The Crowne Plaza Invitational recently shooting rounds of 68,66,69,68 to finish T10 on nine under for the week.

He also played well at The Players finishing T8. He has played well here in the past with a win here last year and a T19 finish in 2012. Harman ranks 49th in strokes gained putting and ninth in approaches from 250 yards, which is a good stat for approaches into the par 5’s. With good previous performances here and decent current form, Brian Harman is great value here at 33/1.

 

Tony Finau 33/1 John Deere Classic

Tony Finau 33/1

Finau has easily been one of the most consistent players on tour over the last few weeks and looks to be right on the cusp of a win any day now. He put together another steady week at The Greenbrier last week finishing T13 on ten under par for the tournament. Finau also had another respectable performance at The Travelers, where he finished T25. He has been very consistent finishing inside the top 25 in seven of his last eight starts. He played well at Chambers Bay finishing T14, T8 at Memorial, T10 at The Byron Nelson, T19 at Colonial and T16 at The Wells Fargo in Quail Hollow.

He ranks seventh in driving distance,33rd in strokes gained tee to green, eighth in approaches from 150-175, 32nd in approaches from 75-100 and 35th in par 4 scoring. He also ranks 43rd in par 5 scoring and 47th in par 3 scoring. Finau is on a great run of form and I don’t see any reason why that shouldn’t continue here this week.

Final Selections –

Zach Johnson 9/1 2pts EW

Kevin Kisner 16/1 2pts EW

Brian Harman 33/1 1pt EW

Tony Finau 33/1 1pt EW

Total staked = 12 pts

 

Good luck and enjoy the golf,

Doublebogey6

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The Greenbrier Classic Betting Preview 2015

The Greenbrier Classic Betting Preview 2015

The Old White TPC, White Sulphur Springs, West Virginia

7,287 yards par 70

Last Week –

Well it was another super week for us last week at The Travelers tipping Bubba Watson at 11/1 making him our 11th winner of the season. He was a bit up and down over the weekend but managed to stay in the hunt and came into the final round one shot behind overnight leader Brain Harman. The turning point of the round came at the par 5 13th, where he hit a superb second shot out of the fairway bunker and rolled in the putt for an eagle to take a two shot lead. Meanwhile, Paul Casey was firing his approach shots close to the pins the all day and even holed out a wedge from the fairway for an eagle two on the par 4 3rd to get himself right into contention. With Bubba bogeying the 17th, Casey found himself tied for the lead and ended up losing to Watson in a two hole playoff after he bladed a sand wedge out of the bunker on 18. Bubba made the birdie putt and won in style.

It’s been a great year for us so far with 11 winners and 17 places in 30 PGA Tour events. Let’s keep it going in our The Greenbrier Classic Betting Preview 2015 this week! For a full list of our P&L this season, please click here

 

The Course

The Old White TPC is a par 70 measuring 7,287 yards. It has two par 5’s, four par 3’s and 12 par 4’s. The fairways are tree lined with water hazards featuring on a lot of holes throughout the course.

The course was taken apart by Stuart Appleby in 2010 when he shot a record breaking 59 to beat Jeff Overton by one stroke to win the tournament on 22 under par. The course was then made a little more difficult to make scoring a little more challenging after 2010. It was then lengthened by about 250 yards and all of the greens were reconstructed making them a little smaller, undulating and reseeded with bentgrass. Because the greens play smaller than the usual standard, players that rank well in putting between 10-15 feet are worth looking at.

The changes to the course were evident in 2011 as the course played noticeably harder than the previous year. Scott Stallings won the tournament on 10 under par, a huge 12 strokes less than Appleby in 2010.

On this course, driving accuracy isn’t massively important as these fairways are quite forgiving, but distance is a factor as the two par 5’s will require two solid shots to make the green in two. With 12 par 4’s to contend with, par 4 scoring will also be worth looking at along with good approach stats and birdie average. Good previous course form, good current from and good putting are all stats that are also worth checking this week. This tournament is a tough one to call and could be a good place for an in form player to bag his first win.

 

Webb Simpson 22/1 Greenbrier Classic 2015

Webb Simpson 22/1

Webb Simpson comes here showing a mixed bag of form over the last few weeks with only one top 10 finish in his last eight events. He had a great performance at The Wells Fargo in Quail Hollow finishing T2. He started the week very well shooting two 67’s and followed that with a 68 on Saturday and a disappointing final round 72 on Sunday. The putter never really heated up on Sunday but he did play quite solid and showed some great consistency all week. Simpson started the season well with a T4 at The Shriners, T7 at The Humana and a T7 in Doral.

He is a real horse for the course here with three top 10’s in his last four appearances. He finished third here last year, seventh in 2012 and ninth in 2011. Statswise he ranks eighth in strokes gained tee to green, 38th in both GIR and driving accuracy and ninth in par 3 scoring. His approach stats are excellent ranking seventh in approaches from 150-175, 15th in approaches from 200 and 16th in approaches from 200-225. With a great record here and a good finish recently at Quail Hollow, Simpson could be a big contender here this week.

 

Bill Haas 28/1 Greenbrier Classic 2015

Bill Haas 28/1

Despite missing the cut at Chambers Bay, Bill Haas has been showing some solid form this season. He has a win already under his belt, which came at the Humana Challenge back in January. He also has top 10’ at The WGC Cadillac in Doral finishing T7 and T4 at The Players. He played well recently at The Memorial shooting a final round 69 to finish in a respectable T18 in seven under for the tournament. Haas is another player that is a horse for the course finishing T23 last year, ninth in 2013 and second in 2011.

Haas ticks a lot of boxes statistically ranking 42nd in GIR, 31st in strokes gained tee to green and 15th in approaches from 225-250. He also ranks third in approaches from 125-150, 30th in par 4 scoring and 12th in putts from inside 10 feet, which is a good stat for putting on these small greens.

 

Kevin Kisner 30/1 Greenbrier Classic 2015

Kevin Kisner 30/1

With five top 12’s in his last seven starts, Kevin Kisner comes into this week in superb form. He lost two playoffs in the last few weeks, which came at The RBC Heritage losing to Jim Furyk and The Players Championship losing to Rickie Fowler. He followed that with a T5 at The Crowne Plaza Invitational in Colonial, which included three 67’s and a 69. He then finished T8 at The Memorial and followed that with a T12 at The US Open in Chambers Bay. Kisner has played here three times in the past and missed the cut on all three occasions, but he comes here in much better form this time around.

Kisner ranks 18th in driving accuracy, 45th in strokes gained tee to green and seventh in approaches from 225-250. He also ranks 39th in par 3 scoring, 30th in par 4 scoring, 28th in par 5 scoring and 11th in putts from inside 10 feet. With great current form and missing out on two playoffs recently, this could be the week Kisner gets his long awaited win.

 

Tony Finau 35/1 Greenbrier Classic 2015

Tony Finau 35/1

I tipped Tony last week at The Travelers where he put in yet another solid performance finishing in a respectable T25. Before last week, he hadn’t finished outside the top 20 in his previous five events. He played well at Chambers Bay finishing T14, T8 at Memorial, T10 at The Byron Nelson, T19 at Colonial and T16 at The Wells Fargo in Quail Hollow. This course could suit the big hitting Finau, who is averaging 307 yards off the tee ranking seventh in driving distance.

He also ranks 36th in strokes gained tee to green, fourth in approaches from 150-175, 30th in par 4 scoring and 44th in par 5 scoring. This will be his first appearance at The Greenbrier and with great current form, this course could really suit his eye.

 

Brendan Todd 45/1 Greenbrier Classic 2015

Brendan Todd 45/1

Todd played well last week at The Travelers finishing T15, which included two 67’s on Saturday and Sunday. He also had a good week at The Memorial finishing solo 17th, which would have been a lot better if it weren’t for a disappointing 74 in the final round. He showed some good early season form finishing T8 at The HTOC, T10 in Pebble Beach, T14 at The Northern Trust and more recently, a solo fourth in Harbour Town at The RBC Heritage.

Todd has played well here in the past finishing T4 last year and seems to tick a lot of statistical boxes. He ranks 10th in driving distance, 13th in strokes gained putting and fourth in approaches from 100-125. He also ranks sixth in putts inside 10 feet, 20th in par 3 scoring and 18th in scrambling. With a good finish here last year, Todd could be another contender at a big price.

 

Final selections –

Webb Simpson 22/1 2pts EW

Bill Haas 28/1 1.5 pts EW

Kevin Kisner 30/1 1.5 pts EW

Tony Finau 35/1 1 pt EW

Brendan Todd 45/1 1 pt EW

Total staked = 14 pts

 

Good luck and enjoy the golf,

 

Doublebogey6

 

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Travelers Championship Betting Preview 2015

Travelers Championship Betting Preview 2015

TPC River Highlands, Cromwell, Connecticut

6,841 yards, par 70

The Course 

TPC River Highlands is a small course by PGA Tour standards measuring only 6,841 yards and overlooks the Connecticut River. It was redesigned by Pete Dye in 1982 and has wide, rolling, tree lined fairways. It has four par 3’s, two par 5’s and 12 par 4’s. The two par 5’s measure 574 yards and 523 and will offer birdie opportunities. The par 4 second measures a mere 341 yards and will be driveable by the bigger hitters in the field and should also offer a lot of birdies.

These bentgrass greens will be a huge change from the poor greens in last week’s US Open at Chambers Bay. They are also smaller by tour standards so accurate approach shots will be required to get close to the pins.

There are some players in the field this week that have had great performances here over the years such as Ryan Moore (4 top 10’s), Hunter Mahan (3 top 10’s and a win) and Bubba Watson (3 top 10’sand a win). This suggests that previous form is certainly worth looking at.

Key stats to consider here are good course history, good putting, scrambling, par 4 scoring, par 3 scoring and approach stats between 150-200 yards. The fairways are quite wide and forgiving so expect the scoring to be low. There is quite a lot of water on the back 9 from holes 15-17, which play around a four acre lake and should offer quite a lot of excitement in the final round on Sunday.

 

Bubba Watson 11/1 Travelers Championship 2015

Bubba Watson 11/1

After opening with a 70 in round one last week in Chambers Bay, Bubba Watson shot a 77 in round two and ended up missing the cut, which isn’t a bad thing coming into this week’s Travelers. His form has been a bit hit and miss over the last few weeks, but he started the season off in style with a win at The HSBC Champions and has a further four top 10 finishes. Most recently, he played well at The WGC Cadillac in Doral finishing solo third on seven under for the tournament. He only played in four events since then.

He has played well here at TPC River Highlands in the past with a win in 2010, T2 in 2012 and a T4 in 2013. Statswise Bubba ranks fourth in driving distance, eighth in strokes gained tee to green, first in par 5 scoring and 14th in par 3 scoring. With such a good record here over the last few years, this could be place where he regains some of the great form he started with at the beginning of the season.

 

Brandt Snedeker 16/1 Travelers Championship 2015

Brandt Snedeker 16/1

Snedeker had another good performance last week in Chambers Bay making that his third top 10 in his last three starts. He played great golf at The Crowne Plaza Invitational shooting four rounds in the 60’s on his way to a T2 finish. He followed that with a T6 at The Byron Nelson shooting two 64’s on Saturday and Sunday finishing on 12 under for the week. He continued that good run of form shooting an impressive final round 68 to finish solo 8th in Chambers Bay last week. Sneds has played well here in the past finishing T11 last year and T24 in 2011.

He ranks sixth in strokes gained putting, 31st in approaches from 50-125 yards, fourth in scrambling and second in putts from 10 feet, which is a good stat for putting on these small greens. He also ranks 10th in par 4 scoring and 39th in par 3 scoring. Snedeker is in fine form at the moment and could be the man to beat here.

 

Marc Leishman 33/1 Travelers Championship

Marc Leishman 33/1

Leishman has been showing some decent form over the last couple of months with two top 10’s and two top 30’s in his last six events. He finished T9 at The WGC Matchplay, T24 at The Players, T27 at The Crowne Plaza Invitational and T5 at The Memorial. He is another player with a good record here over the last few years with a win in 2012, T30 in 2013 and a T11 last year.

Leishman seems to tick a lot of statistical boxes here ranking second in approaches from 150-175 and 23rd in approaches from 125-150, which are two good stats for approaches into the par 4’s. He also ranks first in putts from 10-15 feet and second in putts from eight feet. With good stats, good current form and a good record here, Leishman is a decent shout here at 33’s.

 

Russell Knox 40/1 Travelers Championship 2015

Russell Knox 40/1

Knox has been a pretty solid performer over the last few months with four top 25’s in his last seven events. He has top 10’s at The Shriners (3rd), The Honda Classic (T3) and most recently, the St Jude Classic, where he finished T8. He also finished T18 at The RBC Heritage, T17 at The Players, T24 at The Crowne Plaza and T18 at The Memorial. Knox has played well here in the past finishing T13 in 2013, but looks to be in much better form this time around.

Statswise Knox ranks 20th in driving accuracy, ninth in GIR, 21st in strokes gained tee to green and second in proximity to the hole. He also ranks 11th in approaches from 150-175, fourth in par 4 scoring and 23rd in par 3 scoring.

 

Tony Finau 40/1 Travelers Championship 2015

Tony Finau 40/1

Finau started very well last week in Chambers Bay shooting 69,68 in the first two rounds and looked to be hitting the ball beautifully all week, particularly off the tee and around the greens. He shot 74, 71 over the weekend and finished in a very respectable T14 on +2 for the tournament. He has been playing very steady over the last few weeks with three top 20’s and two top 10’s in his last five starts. His good form began back at The Wells Fargo, where he finished T16. He followed that with a T19 at Colonial, T10 at The Byron Nelson, T8 at The Memorial and T14 last week in Chambers Bay.

Finau is a huge hitter ranking third in driving distance, 33rd in strokes gained tee to green, second in approaches from 150-175 and 40th in par 4 scoring. TPC River Highlands has seen many first time winners over the years and this could be a course that really suits big hitting Tony Finau.

 

Final Selections –

Bubba Watson 11/1 2 pts EW

Brandt Snedeker 16/1 2 pts EW

Marc Leishman 33/1 1 pt EW

Russell Knox 40/1 1 pt EW

Tony Finau 40/1 1 pt EW

Total staked = 14 pts

 

Good luck and enjoy the golf,

 

Doublebogey6

 

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The McGladrey Classic Betting Preview

McGladrey Classic

Seaside Course, Sea Island, Georgia
7,055 yards, Par 70

The Course

The PGA Tour travels to the windy Seaside Course in Georgia this week, where local resident Chris Kirk is the defending champion. This course is a par 70 and was developed in 1999 by designer Tom Fazio and can be a tough test, especially if the wind gets up. It has two par 5’s, four par 3’s and 12 par 4’s.

Previous winners include Heath Slocum (2010), Ben Crane (2011), Tommy Gainey (2012), and Chris Kirk (2013). The main thing that stands out here is that length is not important, however SGP, greens in regulation and par 4 scoring stats are certainly worth mentioning.

The Seaside Course has links style bermuda greens that have tricky run off areas which could be penalizing if the ball doesn’t stay on the short grass. The fairways are quite generous but any wayward tee shots could find long grass or one of the many strategically placed bunkers.

The main areas of focus for me this week are the usual, current form and previous form, SGP,GIR, par 4 scoring, strokes gained tee to green and proximity to the hole.

Webb Simpson 2

Webb Simpson 14/1
Webb had a great start to the new season last week at The Shriners Open in Vegas shooting four rounds in the sixties to finish 15 under par and T4th for the week. He also had a good finish to the 2013/2014 season with a T5 at The Wyndham, T9 at The Deutsche Bank and a respectable T23 at The Tour Championship in East Lake.

Simpson has a great record here at The Seaside Course finishing T7 last year, second in 2011 losing to Ben Crane in a playoff and T12th in 2010. Last week Webb ranked second in GIR and GIR tee to green, 10th in par 4 birdie or better leaders and first in GIR from 75 yards and 100 yards. After a good week in Vegas combined with a great record here over the last few years, it’s hard to bet against Webb this week.

Bill Haas pic 1

Bill Haas 16/1
Haas played well towards the end of the season not finishing worse than T16 in his last five events. He finished T2 at The Wyndham which included a final round 64, a T15 at The Barclays, T9 at The Deutsche Bank, T16 at The BMW Championship and 16th place finish at The Tour Championship. Haas also has a good record at The Seaside course finishing second in 2010 in his one and only appearance.

He also ticks a lot of boxes statswise, ranking 15th in GIR, 17th in strokes gained tee to green, 38th in par 4 performance and third in par 5 performance last season. He also ranked sixth in GIR from 150 yards and eighth in proximity form the sand, which will be a big help if he gets himself into some of these tricky greenside and fairway bunkers. This could be an event where Haas could really flourish, especially after finishing the season so well recently.

Scott Brown Pic 1

Scott Brown 33/1
Scott Brown arrives to Sea Island this week with two top 12 finishes in his last two events. He started the season well at The Frys with a T12 finishing on ten under par for the tournament. He then followed that with another good performance in TPC Summerlin last week shooting a final round 66 to finish T10th on thirteen under par. In his previous two appearances here, Brown finished T20 in 2012 and T4 here last year.

So far this season he ranks 15th in strokes gained putting, 30th strokes gained tee to green, 14th in par 4 birdie or better leaders, fourth in par four scoring and 33rd in proximity to the hole. After starting the season well, I expect Brown to continue that good form this week in a weaker field.

Tony Finau pic 1

Tony Finau 50/1
Finau has been riding on the crest of a wave recently with five top 20 finishes, including two top 10’s, in his last six events. He finished the Web.com season well with good performances at The Hotel Fitness Championship (T19), The Nationwide Children’s Hospital Championship (T6) and The Web.com Tour Championship finishing T14th. He has started his PGA Tour season exceptionally well with a T12 at The Frys and a T7 at The Shriners Open last week in Vegas.

Statswise he ranks 20th in GIR, fourth in strokes gained tee to green, first in par 5 performance and 37th in par 4 birdie or better leaders. With a great start to the season, Finau could be one to watch here this week.

Robert Streb pic 1

Robert Streb 66/1
Streb is another player that as started the season well with a respectable T31 at The Frys and a T10 last week at The Shriners. He also had a good finish to the season with good performances at The Barracuda Championship (T14), The Wyndham (T18) and a T9 finish at The Deutsche Bank Championship.

He is also another player that seems to fit the bill in terms of stats. He ranks 35th in strokes gained tee to green, first in par 4 scoring, 25th in total putting and 15th in approaches from 125-150, which is a big plus for approaches into the par 4’s. With a T10 last week, he’ll be arriving here with a lot of confidence and should have a good week.

Final Selections
Webb Simpson 2pts EW at 14/1
Bill Haas 2pts EW at 16/1
Scott Brown 1 pt EW at 33/1
Tony Finau 1 pt EW at 50/1
Robert Streb 1 pt EW at 66/1
Total staked = 14 pts

Good luck and enjoy the golf,

DB

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