Farmers Insurance Open Betting Preview 2015

Farmers Insurance Open 2015

The Course:
Torrey Pines GC, San Diego, California

This week, the PGA Tour travels to Torrey Pines for The Farmers Insurance Open. It sits on the coastal cliffs overlooking the Pacific Ocean in the community of La Jolla, just south of Torrey Pines State Reserve. There are two courses played here this week.

Both the North and South courses were designed by William F. Bell. The South Course was redesigned by Rees Jones in 2001, and is now 7,643 yard par 72. Since the late 1960s, Torrey Pines has hosted the Farmers Insurance Open. The tournament uses both courses for the first two rounds and the South Course for the final two rounds. It hosted the 2008 U.S. Open on the South Course, which was won by Tiger Woods in a playoff.

Here’s a more in depth look at the courses.

North Course 6,874 Yards, par 72
This is the easier of the two courses and roughly measures around 550 yards less than The South Course. It has four par 5’s, four par 3’s and 10 par fours. It is situated along the coastal cliffs of the Pacific Ocean and has a tendency to get a bit windy.

The fairways are a narrower and will be tricky to hit so driving accuracy will be a big plus. The greens on both courses are poa annua greens, which tends to get a bit bumpy as the day goes on so good poa annua putters will be worth considering.

South Course 7,643 Yards, par 72
The South Course is played in the final two rounds and tends to be a lot more difficult than the North course. It has four par 5’s and four par 3’s and sits next to the pacific ocean and is also prone to windy conditions. The fairways here are a little wider and more forgiving than The North Course, but length and power will be required here, which will favour the bigger hitters in the field. There a more hazards guarding the greens, so good scramblers could also be worth considering.

The main stats that jump out at me here are, good poa annua putters, power, par 4 scoring, good current form and good previous form on this course. The total driving stat is also important, as missing the fairway can be extremely costly. There are a lot of slopes and greenside bunkers around the greens so good GIR and scrambling stats will be required.

Jason Day edited pic 1

Jason Day 14/1
Jason Day started his season very well finishing T3 at The Hyundai Tournament of Champions in Kapalua a couple of weeks ago. He had a mixed bag of form shooting an opening round 70 and followed that with a 69 in round 2 and 71 in round 3. He began a late charge in the final round shooting a superb 62 finishing on -20, just one stroke behind the winner Patrick Reed.

He followed that with a respectable T17 at The Sony finishing on 10 under in total. After an injury stricken 2014, he started showing some signs of good form in December and went on to win The Franklin Templeton Shootout with Cameron Tringale. He also had a good week at The Hero World Challenge finishing solo 5th on 14 under par, which included an impressive final round 66.

After a win at The World Cup of Golf and The Accenture World Matchplay, Day also performed well in the last of the FedExCup playoffs at the end of October finishing T2 at The Barclays, T7 at The Deutsche Bank and T4 at The Tour Championship at East Lake. In his last two appearances here at Torrey Pines, Day finished T2 last year and T15 in 2013.

Statswise, Day ranks 28th in driving distance, first in GIR and birdie average and first in putting average. He also ranks first in par 4 scoring and 15th in par 3 scoring, which are two stats that will certainly be favorable on these courses.

Brandt Snedeker pic 1

Brandt Snedeker 25/1
After a good performance last week in Phoenix finishing T10 on 10 under par, Snedeker will be feeling confident coming back to a course where he has played so well on in the past. He comes here in good form with three top 10’s in his last four competitive starts. He started the season with a T57 at The Frys.com and followed that with a T10 at The Shriners Open and another T10 at The WGC HSBC Champions.

Sneds has a great record at this event with a win and three top 10’s in his last five starts in this tournament. He finished T3 in 2013, won in 2012, T9 in 2011 and T2 in 2010, so it’s fair to say he is a horse for the course. He is also a bit of a poa annua specialist and seems to putt very well on this grass type. This is further proven with his previous win here at Torrey Pines, Pebble Beach and Glen Abbey, which was the venue for the 2013 RBC Canadian Open.

Sneds found a solid putting stroke last week last week in Phoenix and will take that forward into this week. With three top 10’s in his last four starts, Snedeker could be one to watch here on a course he has played so well on in the past.

Marc Leishman pic 1

Marc Leishman 40/1
Leishman had a good end to 2014 with a solo ninth place finish at the WGC HSBC Champions in November. He followed that with a respectable T37 at The Sony Open in Hawaii, finishing on seven under for the tournament.

He is another player that has a good record here over the years with three top 10’s in his last five starts. He finished T2 last year to the eventual winner Scott Stallings, T9 in 2011 and second once again to the winner Ben Crane in 2010.

Leishman has the length to power his way around this golf course hitting the ball an average of 300 yards off the tee ranking 27th in driving distance. He also ranks 20th in strokes gained putting, 21st in total putting and third in approaches from 150-175, which is a good stat for approaches into the par 4’s. With a good finish to 2014 and a good history on this course, Leishman could go well here at a good price.

Justin Thomas pic 1 edited

Justin Thomas 35/1
Justin Thomas is a player I have been keeping an eye on over the last few weeks and looks to be playing with a lot of consistency. He hasn’t finished outside the top 25 in his last five events, which included three top 10’s. His run of good form began back in November at The Sanderson Farms where he finished T4 on 13 under par for the week. He followed that with a T23 at the OHL Classic and a T6 at The Sony Open in Hawaii. He played very well at The Humana Challenge finishing T7 on 20 under par, which included a second round 63. Most recently, he had another good week in Phoenix finishing in a respectable T17 on eight under par.

Thomas played very well in this event last year finishing T10 on six under par for the tournament. Statswise he ranks 16th in driving distance, 34th in strokes gained tee to green, 13th in birdie average and seventh in putting average. He also ranks fourth in par 4 scoring and 11th in birdie or better conversion percentage. He comes here this year in much better form than he was last year and should have a good week considering his current form.

First Round Leader – North Course

Brandt Snedeker 20/1
As I said above, Snedeker has a great record around this course and has shot no worse than 71 in five of his last six opening rounds. He opened with a 65 in 2013, a 67 in 2012 and a 70 in 2011. He has also shot an impressive 64 in round 2 in 2012, so he knows how to go low around Torrey Pines.
In his last five starts on the PGA Tour, he has shot no worse than a 71. He started strongly at The Shriners Open shooting an opening 67 and went on to open with a 69 at The WGC HSBC Champions. He also started well last week in Phoenix shooting a 70 in round 1. With Snedeker’s previous form here and experience with these poa annua greens, he could potentially go low in round 1.

Final Selections –
Jason Day 14/1 1.5 pts EW
Brandt Snedeker 25/1 1 .5 pts EW
Marc Leishman 1 pt EW
Justin Thomas 35/1 1 pt EW

First Round Leader –
Brandt Snedeker 28/1 1 pt EW
Total staked = 12 pts

Good luck and enjoy the golf,

Doublebogey6

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Farmers Insurance Open Betting Preview

Farmers Insurance Logo

The Course:
Torrey Pines GC, San Diego, California

There are two courses played here this week.

North Course 6,874 Yards, par 72
Clearly the easier of the two. This course is used in one of the first two rounds and has four par fives in total.

South Course 7,698 Yards, par 72
This course is the only one played in the final two rounds and is a lot more difficult than the North course. It has five par fives in total and requires power, accurate long iron play and good scrambling.

There are a few different stats to consider. The first factor is grass type. The greens here are poa annua which is a grass that tends to be a bit bumpy. The local Californians will certainly take a shine to this grass type so keep in mind locals that are in good form at present.
The total driving stat is also important, as missing the fairway can be extremely costly. There are a lot of slopes and greenside bunkers around the greens so good GIR and scrambling stats will be other important stats to consider.

The Top Two in the Market:
Tiger Woods has a phenomenal record on this course with a total of eight wins which includes the 2008 US Open in which he famously played with a broken leg. His recent performances include a third place finish at The Turkish Airlines Open back in November and a second place finish at The Northwestern Mutual in mid-December.

Phil Mickelson is another player that has a good past at Torrey Pines recording three wins and two runner ups. He starts his first event of the PGA Tour this week and should be feeling confident after an impressive second place finish in Abu Dhabi last week, which included a superb 63 in the third round.

Tiger Woods Torrey Pines

Tiger Woods 5/2
He just simply has to be backed this week in my opinion. A lot of you will be saying he is too short a price and I agree 100% percent, however, his record around this golf course simply cannot be ignored. As I mentioned above, Tiger has a superb record at Torrey Pines with eight wins in total including the 2008 US Open. He also holds the course record on the South Course with 62 strokes and always seems to dominate here.

This course requires a lot of power to get around the massive 7,698 yards, accurate long iron play will be important with good GIR stats and good scrambling. Tiger ticks all of those boxes. His current form is decent recently finishing second to Zach Johnson at The Northwestern Mutual back in mid-December.
He was a bit unlucky not to win with Zach Johnson’s fabulous short game clinching him victory after holing a superb chip shot from the drop zone. He also had a good performance in Turkey finishing in third place The Turkish Airlines Open back in November.

Statswise last season he ranked seventh in approaches from 200+, third in GIR percentage from 150-200 yards, first in approaches from 150-175, third in approaches from 200-225 and 17th in total driving. With all of these stats in mind, it’s easy to see why Tiger always dominates here year in year out. He is always the man to beat at Torrey Pines and is a 100% must for me this week.

Bubba Watson 33/1
I was quite surprised to see Bubba at such a big price here this week. In only three events played so far this season, Bubba has two top ten’s which came at the WGC-HSBC Champions in Shanghai where he finished in tied eighth and The Northwestern Mutual where he finished 3rd in mid-December. He is another player that has a good record around this course with a win in 2011 and a 13th place finish in 2012.

He is one of the biggest hitters on tour ranking fifth in driving distance hitting it an average 303.7 yards last season. As I mentioned above, power is going to be a key factor on this course and Bubba certainly fits the bill in that department. He also ranked fifth in GIR and 22nd in total driving last season which will work in his favour on this course. He is great value for a previous winner and is another player who fits the bill here at Torrey Pines.

Bill Haas 25/1
Haas had a great performance at the Humana Challenge last week in La Quinta shooting four superb rounds in the 60’s to finish in T6th on -23. He has had a good start to the PGA Tour season finishing T16th at The CIMB Classic, T21st at The WGC-HSBC Champions and followed that with a top 10 at The Northwestern Mutual finishing in T9th.

He has a great record on this course with three top ten finishes in his last three years. He finished T9th last year, T4th in 2012 and T9th in 2011. Statswise he ranked 21st in GIR, ninth in GIR Percentage from 200+, second in GIR between 150-175 yards and ranked an all-important 18th in scrambling last season. After a good performance at The Humana last week combined with a good previous record, Bill Haas gets my vote here.

Hunter Mahan 33/1
Mahan had a decent finish at the end of last season where he put in good performances in the FedEx Cup playoffs. He had two top 25’s at The Tour Championship and The Barclays, a top 15 at The Deutsche Bank and a top five which came at The BMW Championship in which he finished T4th. Most recently he played well in The Presidents Cup where he was part of the winning US Team. His last competitive round was in Thailand in mid-December where he finished in T13th.

Mahan has a good record on this course finishing in T15th last year, T6th in 2012 and T6th in 2011. Statswise last season he ranked eighth in total driving, 25th in GIR and 27th in strokes gained putting. He also has good GIR percentage stats ranking 10th from 125 + and second from 100-125 yards hitting 95% of greens. Hunter is another player that seems generously priced and is certainly worth considering here this week given his history.

Jason Day 33/1
Jason Day had a good performance here last year finishing in a respectable T9th shooting a superb 66 in the final round. He always plays well in the bigger events on the PGA Tour and has proven he can compete at the very top level. He won the World Cup of Golf back at the end of November at Royal Melbourne shooting ten under par for the singles tournament. Day had a solid finish to the 2012/2013 season playing well in the FedEx Cup playoffs.

He finished T13th at The Deutsche Bank, T4th at The BMW and T14th at The Tour Championship. Looking at his stats from last year, he ranked 16th in driving distance hitting it an average of just under 300 yards off the tee. He also ranked 11th in scoring average and 27th in scrambling. With good power and distance and good scrambling, Day could be a big threat here this week. He only has one win on the PGA Tour and this could be the ideal place to get his second.

Final Selections:
Tiger Woods 4pts to win
Bubba Watson 1.5pts/3 pts EW
Bill Haas 1.5pts/3 pts EW
Hunter Mahan 1 pt/2 pts EW
Jason Day 1 pt/2 pts EW
Total staked: 14 pts

Good luck and enjoy the golf.

Doublebogey6

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