Valspar Championship Betting Preview  2018

Valspar Championship Betting Preview 2018Copperhead Course, Innisbrook Resort, Palm Harbour, Florida   

Par 71, 7,340 yards   

The Course   

There are four golf courses at Innisbrook all designed by Larry Packard, the oldest of which is the Island Course, which was completed in 1970. The Copperhead Course came next in 1974, and originally had 27 holes before nine were used as the basis of the Highlands North Course. The final addition was the Highlands South Course.  

The Copperhead course underwent some subtle changes in 2015 with bigger tee boxes, re shaped bunkers around the greens and re grassed fairways. It is a lengthy par 71 and has four par 5’s, five par 3’s and nine par 4’s.  All but one of the par 3’s measure over 200 yards and will demand accurate iron play to score on the greens, which are smaller than average for PGA Tour standards.  

Three of the four par 5’s, the first, 11th and 14th are pretty easy and should offer up plenty of birdies. Two out of the four par 5’s have double doglegs so an accurate tee shot can be well rewarded.  Although this course is long, there is more of an emphasis on accuracy with players reaping the rewards with accuracy off the tee on some holes.     

Players that can work the ball both directions off the tee should also have a big advantage. Water will be a key feature and comes into play on 9 out of the 18 holes. This course features three tricky closing holes on the back nine in the shape of 16, 17 and 18 which are called the “Snake Pit”. It consists of two very tricky par 4’s and a difficult par 3 and is known as one of the most difficult closing three hole stretches on Tour.     

There are a few stats to consider on this course, the first one being accuracy off the tee. It also boasts five par 3’s and four par 5’s so be on the lookout for good par 3 and par 5 performance stats. The greens here are Bermuda greens and are quite small and tricky to read so be on the lookout for good GIR stats and accurate iron players.


Henrik Stenson 18/1 Valspar Betting Preview 2018Henrik Stenson 18/1

The Swede has only played a handful of events over the last couple of months but when he has teed it up, he has played very well.

Stenson travels to Florida on the back of three top 10’s in his last five starts and returns to a course where he has played exceptionally well on in the past.

He had a great week at the WGC HSBC Champions in China back in October finishing T2 which included four rounds of 70 or better to finish 12 under. After a disappointing T35 in Turkey in November, Stenson bounced back finishing solo eighth in Abu Dhabi which included an impressive final round 65. He then travelled to Dubai at the end of January and finished T6 at the Dubai Desert Classic where he didn’t shoot worse than a 70 throughout the week.

Stenson seems to be a player that consistently plays well on courses he has a good record on. For example, he hasn’t finished outside the top 10 at both the Dubai Desert Classic and Abu Dhabi in his last six appearances proving he’s a horse for the course type of player.

His record here at Copperhead is impressive with form figures 7,11,4 in his last three appearances and ticks a lot boxes here ranking third in driving accuracy, fourth in GIR and fourth in putts per GIR. With a great record here and good current form, the Swede looks a decent bet at 18’s.


Adam Hadwin Valspar Championship Betting Preview 2018Adam Hadwin 30/1

The defending Champion returns to the site of his one and only PGA Tour win in great form with three top 10’s in his last five starts.

The Canadian had a good week at the CareerBuilder Challenge at the end of January finishing T3 shooting four rounds of 68 or better. He followed that with an impressive T6 in Riviera at the Genesis Open which included two 66’s over the weekend. Hadwin then kept up that good run of form last week in Mexico where he finished T9 at the WGC Mexico where, again he finished strongly firing 67,66 on Saturday and Sunday to post 10 under.

He played pretty flawless golf last year shooting 68,64,67 in the opening three rounds and finished with a respectable 71 to win by one from Patrick Cantlay on 14 under. With two top 10’s in his last two starts, Hadwin will be feeling confident he can have another good week at Copperhead.


Ryan Moore 35/1 Valspar Championship Betting Preview 2018Ryan Moore 35/1

Like Stenson, Ryan Moore is another horse for the course here with two top 10’s and a top 20 in his last three appearances here.

Moore has had a fairly quiet season so far playing in only six events so far but he has two top 10’s in his last four starts which in encouraging. He started the season with a respectable T17 at the Safeway back in October and followed that with a T6 at the OHL Classic back in December shooting rounds of 70,66,67,68 to post 13 under.

After a missed cut in Phoenix, he bounced back with an impressive T9 in Riviera at The Genesis Open which included two opening 68’s.

Moore has a great record here over the last few years finishing T8 in 2007, T19 in 2009, solo fifth in 2015, solo third in 2016 and T18 last year.

Statswise he ticks some key boxes here ranking 33rd in SG Putting, 20th in strokes gained around the green and 33rd in par 5 scoring. With decent current form and a great record here Moore looks good value at 35/1.


Final selections – 

Henrik Stenson 1pt EW

Adam Hadwin 1pt EW

Ryan Moore 1pt EW

Total staked = 6pts *some bookies paying 7 places*


Good luck and enjoy the golf.


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