Valspar Championship Betting Preview  2017

Valspar Championship Betting Preview 2017Copperhead Course, Innisbrook Resort, Palm Harbour, Florida  

Par 71, 7,340 yards  

The Course  

There are four golf courses at Innisbrook all designed by Larry Packard, the oldest of which is the Island Course which was completed in 1970. The Copperhead Course came next in 1974, and originally had 27 holes before nine were used as the basis of the Highlands North Course. The final addition was the Highlands South Course.

The Copperhead course underwent some subtle changes in 2015 with bigger tee boxes, re shaped bunkers around the greens and re grassed fairways. It is a lengthy par 71 and has four par 5’s, five par 3’s and nine par 4’s.  All but one of the par 3’s measure over 200 yards and will demand good accurate iron play to score on the greens which are smaller than average for PGA Tour standards.

Three of the four par 5’s, the first, 11th and 14th are pretty easy and should offer up plenty of birdies. Players that can work the ball both directions should also have a big advantage with two out of the four par 5’s having double doglegs.  Although this course is long, there is more of an emphasis on accuracy with players reaping the rewards with accuracy off the tee on some holes.

Water will be a key feature and comes into play on 9 out of the 18 holes. This course features three tricky closing holes on the back nine 16, 17 and 18 which are called the “Snake Pit”. It consists of two very tricky par 4’s and a difficult par 3 and is known as one of the most difficult closing three hole stretches on Tour.

There are a few stats to consider on this course, the first one being accuracy off the tee. It also boasts five par 3’s and four par 5’s so be on the lookout for good par 3 and par 5 performance stats. The greens here are Bermuda greens and are quite small and tricky to read so be on the lookout for good GIR stats and accurate iron players.

 

Henrik Stenson 11/1 Valspar Championship Betting Preview 2017Henrik Stenson 11/1

Despite withdrawing last week in Mexico with a stomach virus, Stenson seems to be back to full health here this week. The Swede has been in great form over the last few months with six top 10’s in his last seven starts. He had a good week at the WGC HSBC Champions finishing T2 and followed that with a solo eighth at the Nedbank in South Africa, T9 at the DP World in Dubai, T8 in Abu Dhabi, solo second at the Hero World Challenge and a solo second at the Dubai Desert Classic a couple of weeks ago.

He has played well here at Copperhead in the past finishing T11 last year and fourth in 2015. Stenson could suit this course ranking sixth in driving accuracy, fourth in GIR and fourth in stroke average so far this season in Europe. He should be well rested after last week and looks a worthy favourite here.

 

Daniel Berger 25/1 Valspar Championship Betting Preview 2017Daniel Berger 25/1

I backed Daniel a couple of weeks ago at the Honda where he didn’t play his best but after an encouraging performance last week in Mexico, Im willing to give him another shot here. He has been playing some good golf recently and comes here with five top 20’s in his last eight starts. He had a good week at the WGC HSBC Champions back in October finishing T2 and followed that with a T14 at the SBS Tournament of Champions finishing 12 under. Berger had another solid performance at the Phoenix Open in February finishing T7 which included rounds of 71,66,66,68 to post 13 under par in total.

Last week in Mexico he played well for the first three rounds shooting 70,66,70 and was right in contention but fell away on Sunday shooting a final round 72 to finish T16. Berger played well here last year finishing T11 but comes here in much better form this time around. Growing up in Florida, Berger is a good Bermuda player and ranks 25th in SGP, 10th in scrambling and 27th in par 3 scoring.

 

Gary Woodland 25/1 Valspar Championship Betting Preview 2017Gary Woodland 25/1

Although Chapltapec didn’t really suit him last week, I reckon the big hitting American could feel more at home here in Copperhead this week. Woodland is in great form with four top 10’s and a top 20 in his last seven events. He had a good week at the OHL Classic finishing solo second and followed that with a T6 at The Sony Open in Hawaii and a T20 at The Farmers Insurance Open in Torrey Pines.

Most recently he played well at the Pebble Beach Pro-Am shooting 67,65 over the weekend to finish T5 on 12 under. He followed that with another solid performance at The Honda Classic in Florida shooting rounds of 71,66,66,69 to finish eight under and T2 for the tournament. Woodland has played well here over the last few years and had his first PGA Tour win here back in 2011. He also finished T29 in 2012 and T8 in 2014. Statswise Woodland is averaging just over 305 off the tee and ranks 15th in SG Approach to the green, 18th in SGTTG and 27th in GIR. If he putts well he could be dangerous.

 

Wesley Bryan 45/1 Valspar Championship Betting Preview 2017Wesley Bryan 45/1

Ive been keeping an eye on this guy over the last 6 months and he’s really turning into a superb player. Although he hasn’t had the best start to the season, Bryan has played really well in his last two tournaments posting two top 5’s. He played well in LA at the Genesis Open shooting 69,69,63,72 to post 11 under in total and T4 for the tournament. He then went to Florida and had another good week finishing T4 on seven under, which included an opening round 64.

Statswise Bryan looks like another player that could suit this course ranking 35th in SG approaches to the green, 25th in SG around the green and 18th in par 3 scoring. He looks great value for a player bang in form.

 

Final selections –

Henrik Stenson 11/1 1pt EW

Daniel Berger 25/1 0.5 pts EW

Gary Woodland 25/1 0.5 pts EW

Wesley Bryan 45/1 0.5 pts EW

Total staked = 5 pts

 

Good luck and enjoy the golf,

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