Waste Management Phoenix Open Betting Preview 2018

TPC Scottsdale, Arizona  

Par 71, 7,266 Yards  

Well we came close last week with both Rahm and Finau sitting in second and third spot after 36 holes. Rahm had a poor finish but Finau finished T6 getting a full place (PP paying 1-7) for a small profit for the week. Let’s hope we can go one better this week in Scottsdale.     

Waste Management Phoenix Open Betting Preview 2018The Course  

The Waste Management Phoenix Open has long been the best attended event on the schedule and this year should be no different. This year particularly should be special for the hosts as this is the 30-year anniversary of the tournament. TPC Scottsdale underwent some major renovations back in in 2014 with over $12 million dollars spent on upgrading the course.   

Strategic changes have touched all 18 holes with some of the fairways being realigned and bunkers reshaped with a view to making them more punishing. The large Bermuda greens were also resurfaced and tend to be a bit on the quick side. Roughly 100 yards was added to the course but it hasn’t made a huge difference to the scoring. The fairways are quite forgiving but if a tee shot goes a little wayward, it could end up in the desert or a deep bunker.  

The course features three par 5’s that all measure between 550 and 560 yards and should be reachable in two by some of the bigger hitters in the field. The 15th is a reachable par 5 with water coming into play so the second shot will certainly get the players attention. The course also has four par 3’s and 11 par 4’s. The 17th is a driveable par 4 and also has water in play and has been known to trip up the leaders in the final round over the last few years.  

The signature 16th hole is an enclosed arena that holds some 20,000 spectators and tends to offer a football stadium feel to it with a great atmosphere. It is an arena that can erupt at the sight of a good tee shot and give any player who is in the hunt a good ego boost going into the final few holes on Sunday. 

This course doesn’t really favor length or accuracy but judging by previous winners, a hot putter and hitting plenty of greens appear to be the ingredients for success here. With 11 par 4’s in total, it’s also worth looking at par 4 scoring along with good scrambling.  

 

Webb Simpson 35/1 Waste Management Phoenix Open Preview 2018Webb Simpson 35/1  

Webb has been trending nicely in the right direction lately and given his excellent form here in Arizona over the last few years, he is well worth backing this week.   

He started the season with a respectable T17 at the Safeway and followed that with a T20 at the Shriners Open in Vegas which included three rounds of 70 or better. He began the New Year with an impressive T4 at the Sony shooting rounds of 67,70,63,65 to post 15 under par in total. Simpson was particularly impressive over the weekend in Waialae shooting a total of 12 under and putted superbly.  

His record here in Scottsdale is very impressive with form figures 2,14,10,8,8 since 2011.  Simpson has played a total of 20 competitive rounds here and has shot a 70 or better 16 times so this course clearly suits his eye.  

Statswise, Webb is hitting an average of 71% of greens in reg and ranks 38th in SGTTG. He seems to be getting used to the new putting regulations ranking an impressive 18th in strokes gained putting, fourth in scrambling and third in par 4 scoring. All in all, he looks great value at 35/1 here.

 

Daniel Berger 35/1 Waste Management Phoenix Open Betting Preview 2018Daniel Berger 35/1  

Daniel Berger is another player that seems to be trending in the right direction with three top 20’s and a top 25 in his last five starts. He played well at the WGC-HSBC Champions back at the end of October finishing T24. Berger then had another decent week in Bermuda at the Hero World Challenge finishing a respectable T14 which included two 70’s over the weekend.  

The Florida native started the New Year with a four rounds of level par or better in Kapalua finishing T11 at the Sentry Tournament of Champions posting 10 under par in total. He then travelled to Waialae for the Sony Open and shot four rounds of 69 or better to finish T14 for the tournament closing with an impressive final round 64.  

These large Bermuda greens could suit the American as both of his PGA Tour victories to date have come on the Bermuda greens of TPC Southwind in Tennessee, home of the St Jude Classic.  

He has a good record here with two top 10’s in three appearances finishing T7 last year and T10 in 2015. Statswise he is hitting just under 70% of GIR and ranks 19th in SG off the tee. With good current form and a good record here, Berger looks to be a good shout here.   

 

Alex Noren 35/1 Waste Management Phoenix Open Betting Preview 2018Alex Noren 40/1  

The Swede played brilliantly last week in Torrey Pines but just fell at the last hurdle. He got himself into a three-man playoff and ended up losing to Jason Day early on Monday morning in a six-hole playoff. Despite that, Noren played great throughout the week shooting rounds of 70,66,69,73 to post 10 under par in total.  

He has nine European Tour wins to date, one in 2017 in Wentworth and four in 2016. These wins came on various different courses from English parkland (BMW PGA 2017, Bristish Masters 2016) to tricky Scottish links courses (Scottish open 2016, Nordea Masters 2015) to mountainous South African courses (Nedbank Golf Challenge 2016), this guy seems to have the game to contend anywhere.  

He has been in decent form over the last couple of months finishing T31 at the WGC-HSBC Champions and followed that with a T12 at the Nedbank Challenge in South Africa. Noren then teed it up at the Hero World Challenge in Bermuda finishing T12 in early December.  

It’s also worth noting that the Swede has great form on desert style courses over the last few years finishing second in the Dubai Desert Classic in 2015 and T4 at the Qatar Masters in 2013. Noren has proven he can play, contend and win anywhere on any style of golf course. After coming close last week in Torrey, he could go one better in Arizona.  

 

Austin Cook 60/1 Waste Management Phoenix Open Betting Preview 2018Austin Cook 60/1 

I backed Austin Cook a couple of weeks ago at the CareerBuilder in California where he was in great shape after 54 holes holding a one-shot lead, and then went through a bad spell in round four shooting a disappointing, uncharacteristic 74 to finish T14. That being said I am willing to overlook that slight blip and give him another chance here on a course I think could suit.  

He has been playing well so far this season with a win and five top 25’s in his last seven starts. He started with a respectable T25 at the Sanderson Farms Championship back in October followed by a T20 at the Shriners Open in Vegas posting three under for the week.  

Cook then teed it up at the RSM Classic where he didn’t shoot worse than a 67 for the tournament (including a second round 62) to win by four from J.J Spaun on 21 under par. 

He then travelled to Kapalua and finished T22 and followed that with a T18 at the Sony where shot rounds of 67,71,65,66 to post 11 under in total.  

The young American looks like he could have the game to suit this week ranking 27th in GIR, 18TH in scrambling, 45TH in SGP, 14TH in par 3 scoring and 29th in par 4 scoring. With a precise long game, good putting and solid short game Austin Cook looks great value here. 

 

Final selections – 

Webb Simpson 35/1 1pt EW

Dan Berger 35/1 1pt EW

Alex Noren 40/1 0.5pts EW

Austin Cook 60/1 0.5pts EW

Total staked = 6 pts 

(PP and Coral paying 7 places on 1/5)

 

Good luck and enjoy the golf.

Doublebogey6

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The Tour Championship Betting Preview 2017 – FedEx Cup Playoffs

Tour Championship Betting Preview 2017 - FedEx Cup PlayoffsEast Lake Golf Club, Atlanta

Par 70, 7,385 yards

The Course

It’s the final event of the season and the FedExCup Series and it promises to be cracker. Only the top 30 in the FedEx Cup standings advance to the Tour Championship.

East Lake is a tricky test measuring 7,385 yards. It was restored back in 1994 after being neglected and was brought back to its glory by course designer Rees Jones. They made a small yet exciting change to the course layout for last years edition switching around the nines. The players ended playing a par 5 instead of a par 3 which offered an extra bit of drama at the end.

Previous winners include Rory Mcilroy (2016), Jordan Spieth (2015), Billy Horchel (2014), Henrik Stenson (2013) and Brandt Snedeker (2012).

Going by previous winners hitting plenty of greens is a huge plus along with a hot putter and accuracy off the tee. Players that can keep the ball in the fairway off the tee will give themselves a good look for their approaches into the greens.

The main areas of statistical importance here are GIR, SG Putting, SGTTG, scrambling and driving accuracy.

 

Jordan Spieth 9/2 Tour Championship Betting Preview 2017 - FedEx Cup PlayoffsJordan Spieth 9/2

It’s difficult to bet against the FedEx Cup leader coming to East Lake this week. He has been in great form recently with two wins, three top 10’s and a top 15 in his last seven starts. He had a superb win at the Travelers Championship where he holed a superb bunker shot beating Daniel Berger in a playoff. He then won again the following week at the Open Championship in Royal Birkdale where he overcame some early round jitters to beat Matt Kuchar by an impressive three strokes.

Spieth then finished in a respectable T13 at the WGC Bridgestone and followed that with a solo second at the Northern Trust and another solo second at the Dell Technologies Championship. Last week at the BMW, he had another solid performance finishing T7 on 13 under for the tournament which included an opening and a closing 65.

Jordan has a great record here in East Lake finishing second in 2013, a win in 2015 and a T17 last year. Statswise he ranks third in GIR, second in SGTTG, 30th in strokes gained putting and first in par 4 scoring. In his last 12 competitive rounds Spieth has shot in the 60’s nine times. He looks like the standout favourite here and looks like the man to beat.

 

Paul Casey 16/1 Tour Championship Betting Preview 2017 - FedEx Cup Playoffs Paul Casey 16/1

The Englishman has had a fantastic season on the PGA Tour so far and I fully expect him to keep that good form going this week in East Lake. Casey has four top 10’s and two top 15’s in his last seven starts. He had a great week at the Travelers shooting four rounds in the 60’s to post a T5 finish. He followed that with a T11 at the Open Championship in Birkdale, T5 at the WGC Bridgestone, T13 at The PGA Championship, solo fifth at The Northern Trust, T4 at the Dell Technologies and a respectable T33 at the BMW Championship.

Casey is a real horse for the course here finishing fourth in 2010, fifth in 2015 and fourth last year. Statswise he ranks fourth in GIR, second in SG approaches to the green, fifth in SG tee to green and sixth in scrambling. In his last 12 rounds around East Lake, Casey has only shot worse than a 70 twice.

 

Patrick Cantlay Tour Championship Betting Preview 2017 - FedEx Cup Playoffs Patrick Cantlay 33/1 

Cantlay has been very impressive this season and has done incredibly well to get to the Tour Championship given the amount of tournaments he’s played. He has played some great golf in some tricky events throughout the season including a solo second at the Valspar, a T3 at the RBC Heritage, T14 at the Zurich Classic in New Orleans and a respectable T22 at the Players Championship.

Most recently, Cantlay has two top 10’s and a top 15 in his last three starts. He had a good week at the Northern Trust shooting four rounds of 70 or better finishing T10 and followed that with a T13 at the Dell Technologies Championship which included three rounds in the 60’s. Last week at the BMW Cantlay had another solid week finishing T9 after shooting 67,65,70,70 to post 12 under par in total.

He ticks a few boxes here statswise ranking 17th in GIR, 15th in SG tee to green, 42nd in strokes gained putting and 28th in par 4 scoring.

 

Webb Simpson 40/1 Tour Championship Betting Preview 2017 - FedEx Cup PlayoffsWebb Simpson 40/1

Simpson looks very generously priced considering his good form lately. He has had some great performances over the last couple of months including a solo fifth at the Dean & Deluca Invitational, a T8 at the Travelers and a T14 at the Greenbrier.

More recently he has three top 10’s in his last four starts finishing solo third at the Wyndham which included a 63 and a 64 in in the first two rounds, a T6 at the Northern Trust which included a final round 65 and a T9 last week at the BMW which included three rounds of 68 or better to post 12 under in total.

Webb is another horse for the course here in East Lake finishing T22 in 2011, T5 in 2012, solo fourth in 2013 which included an impressive final round 63 and a T23 in 2014.

Simpson looks like another player that could suit this course ranking 29th in driving accuracy, 27th in SG tee to green, second in scrambling and seventh in par 4 scoring. He looks great value here and could go well at a generous price.

 

Final selections – 

Jordan Spieth 2pt WIN 9/2

Paul Casey 1pt EW 16/1 

Patrick Cantlay 1pt EW 33/1 

Webb Simpson 1pt EW 40/1 

Total staked = 8 pts 

 

*PP Paying 5 places*

 

Good luck and enjoy the golf.

Doublebogey6

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Wyndham Championship Betting Preview 2016

Wyndham Championship Betting Preview 2016Sedgefield Country Club, Greensboro, North Carolina

7,127 yards par 70

The Course

Sedgefield Country Club is a par 70 that stretches out 7,127 yards and has been the host of this event since 2008 following a spell in Forest Oaks Country Club that ended in 2007. It has small undulating greens, forgiving tree lined fairways and is quite short by PGA Tour standards.

There wouldn’t be a huge emphasis on driving distance, but driving accuracy will be an advantage here. Par 3 and par 4 scoring will be important as there are 12 par 4’s, two par 5’s and four par 3’s. The two par 5’s will be reachable in two by pretty much everybody in the field providing they keep the ball in the fairway.

The greens are tricky and undulating with some having big slopes so finding the right part of the green with your approach shots will be key this week. Good putters with good GIR, par 3 and par 4 scoring stats should be worth looking at here. Be on the lookout for players that are in good form and have played well here in Sedgefield in the past. The Wyndham Championship is the last tournament before the FedEx Cup playoffs starts next week.

 

Webb Simpson 25/1 Wyndham Championship Betting Preview 2016Webb Simpson 25/1 

Webb has been playing some decent golf over the last few weeks. He played well at The Dean and Deluca Invitational finishing T3 and didn’t shoot worse than a 67 throughout the week. He then finished T11 at Memorial, solo sixth at The Quicken Loans and T13 at the PGA Championship. His record around this course is solid finishing eighth in 2010, win in 2011, 22nd in 2012, 11th in 2013, second in 2014 and sixth last year.

He struggled with his putting when the anchoring ban came in but he seems to be putting a lot better over the last few weeks. He ranks seventh in SG approach to the green, 26th in SG around the green, 11th in SG tee to green and ninth in par 4 scoring. If the putter warms up Webb could be right in the mix here this week.

 

Brandt Snedeker 25/1 Wyndham Championship Betting Preview 2016Brandt Snedeker 25/1

Sneds has bounced back into some form lately and could be a player to keep on side this week. He finished in a respectable T17 at The Dean and Deluca Invitational and followed that with a T21 at The Bridgestone, T22 at The Open Championship and a T5 at The RBC Canadian Open.

He has a good record here in Sedgefield finishing fifth in 2014, 28th in 2012, eighth in 2010 and fifth in 2009. He ranks first in par 4 scoring, 40th in strokes gained tee to green and 18th in scrambling. Sneds is a real horse for the course around here and could be a big danger man here.

 

Jimmy Walker 28/1 Wyndham Championship 2016 Betting Preview Jimmy Walker 28/1

I was a tad surprised to see Jimmy at the 28/1 mark considering he’s just won the PGA. I noticed on social media that he seems to be doing a lot of practice over the last two weeks posting up pictures and videos of him nailing irons on the range which can only be a good thing! He has had a bit of a mixed bag this season but he’s been playing some great golf over the last couple of months.

He finished a respectable T24 at the Byron Nelson and followed that with a T29 in Colonial, T16 at The WGC Bridgestone, T14 in Canada and a win at The PGA where he didn’t shoot worse than a 68 over the four rounds. He has played well here in the past finishing fourth here in 2012. Walker is an accurate iron player especially from inside 150 yards and ranks 25th in strokes gained around the green and 15th in par 5 scoring. If Walker can keep the momentum going into this week he should be a big contender.

 

Wesley Bryan 33/1

I have to say I really thought this guy was going all the way last week at The John Deere. He was playing great and held the 54 hole lead and went on to finish in a very respectable T8. He has four top 10’s in his last five tournaments finishing T9 at The Nashville Open, T2 at The Lincoln Land Charity Championship and a win at The Digital Ally Open.

In his last 12 competitive rounds Bryan hasn’t shot worse than a 70 and looks to be in great shape coming here this week. He ranks first in strokes gained putting, first in par 3 scoring, third in par 4 scoring and 19th in par 5 scoring. Bryan is playing superb golf at the moment and I expect that to continue here at The Wyndham.

 

William McGirt 33/1 Wyndham Championship Betting Preview 2016William McGirt 40/1 

After a great win at Memorial a few weeks ago McGirt looks to have found some form over the last few weeks. He followed that with a T7 at The WGC Bridgestone which included an opening round 64, and a T10 at The PGA Championship in Baltusrol.

McGirt has played well here in the past finishing T14 here last year and T8 in 2014. He ranks 22nd in strokes gained putting, 29th in driving accuracy, 20th in par 4 scoring and 32nd in scrambling. With some good current form and a decent record at this course, McGirt could be worth a bet here.

 

Final Selections –

Webb Simpson 1pt EW 25/1 

Brandt Snedeker 1pt EW 25/1 

Jimmy Walker 1pt EW 28/1

Wesley Bryan 1pt EW 33/1  

William McGirt 1pt 40/1 

Total staked = 10pts 

 

Good luck and enjoy the golf,

Doublebogey6

 

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The Greenbrier Classic Betting Preview 2015

The Greenbrier Classic Betting Preview 2015

The Old White TPC, White Sulphur Springs, West Virginia

7,287 yards par 70

Last Week –

Well it was another super week for us last week at The Travelers tipping Bubba Watson at 11/1 making him our 11th winner of the season. He was a bit up and down over the weekend but managed to stay in the hunt and came into the final round one shot behind overnight leader Brain Harman. The turning point of the round came at the par 5 13th, where he hit a superb second shot out of the fairway bunker and rolled in the putt for an eagle to take a two shot lead. Meanwhile, Paul Casey was firing his approach shots close to the pins the all day and even holed out a wedge from the fairway for an eagle two on the par 4 3rd to get himself right into contention. With Bubba bogeying the 17th, Casey found himself tied for the lead and ended up losing to Watson in a two hole playoff after he bladed a sand wedge out of the bunker on 18. Bubba made the birdie putt and won in style.

It’s been a great year for us so far with 11 winners and 17 places in 30 PGA Tour events. Let’s keep it going in our The Greenbrier Classic Betting Preview 2015 this week! For a full list of our P&L this season, please click here

 

The Course

The Old White TPC is a par 70 measuring 7,287 yards. It has two par 5’s, four par 3’s and 12 par 4’s. The fairways are tree lined with water hazards featuring on a lot of holes throughout the course.

The course was taken apart by Stuart Appleby in 2010 when he shot a record breaking 59 to beat Jeff Overton by one stroke to win the tournament on 22 under par. The course was then made a little more difficult to make scoring a little more challenging after 2010. It was then lengthened by about 250 yards and all of the greens were reconstructed making them a little smaller, undulating and reseeded with bentgrass. Because the greens play smaller than the usual standard, players that rank well in putting between 10-15 feet are worth looking at.

The changes to the course were evident in 2011 as the course played noticeably harder than the previous year. Scott Stallings won the tournament on 10 under par, a huge 12 strokes less than Appleby in 2010.

On this course, driving accuracy isn’t massively important as these fairways are quite forgiving, but distance is a factor as the two par 5’s will require two solid shots to make the green in two. With 12 par 4’s to contend with, par 4 scoring will also be worth looking at along with good approach stats and birdie average. Good previous course form, good current from and good putting are all stats that are also worth checking this week. This tournament is a tough one to call and could be a good place for an in form player to bag his first win.

 

Webb Simpson 22/1 Greenbrier Classic 2015

Webb Simpson 22/1

Webb Simpson comes here showing a mixed bag of form over the last few weeks with only one top 10 finish in his last eight events. He had a great performance at The Wells Fargo in Quail Hollow finishing T2. He started the week very well shooting two 67’s and followed that with a 68 on Saturday and a disappointing final round 72 on Sunday. The putter never really heated up on Sunday but he did play quite solid and showed some great consistency all week. Simpson started the season well with a T4 at The Shriners, T7 at The Humana and a T7 in Doral.

He is a real horse for the course here with three top 10’s in his last four appearances. He finished third here last year, seventh in 2012 and ninth in 2011. Statswise he ranks eighth in strokes gained tee to green, 38th in both GIR and driving accuracy and ninth in par 3 scoring. His approach stats are excellent ranking seventh in approaches from 150-175, 15th in approaches from 200 and 16th in approaches from 200-225. With a great record here and a good finish recently at Quail Hollow, Simpson could be a big contender here this week.

 

Bill Haas 28/1 Greenbrier Classic 2015

Bill Haas 28/1

Despite missing the cut at Chambers Bay, Bill Haas has been showing some solid form this season. He has a win already under his belt, which came at the Humana Challenge back in January. He also has top 10’ at The WGC Cadillac in Doral finishing T7 and T4 at The Players. He played well recently at The Memorial shooting a final round 69 to finish in a respectable T18 in seven under for the tournament. Haas is another player that is a horse for the course finishing T23 last year, ninth in 2013 and second in 2011.

Haas ticks a lot of boxes statistically ranking 42nd in GIR, 31st in strokes gained tee to green and 15th in approaches from 225-250. He also ranks third in approaches from 125-150, 30th in par 4 scoring and 12th in putts from inside 10 feet, which is a good stat for putting on these small greens.

 

Kevin Kisner 30/1 Greenbrier Classic 2015

Kevin Kisner 30/1

With five top 12’s in his last seven starts, Kevin Kisner comes into this week in superb form. He lost two playoffs in the last few weeks, which came at The RBC Heritage losing to Jim Furyk and The Players Championship losing to Rickie Fowler. He followed that with a T5 at The Crowne Plaza Invitational in Colonial, which included three 67’s and a 69. He then finished T8 at The Memorial and followed that with a T12 at The US Open in Chambers Bay. Kisner has played here three times in the past and missed the cut on all three occasions, but he comes here in much better form this time around.

Kisner ranks 18th in driving accuracy, 45th in strokes gained tee to green and seventh in approaches from 225-250. He also ranks 39th in par 3 scoring, 30th in par 4 scoring, 28th in par 5 scoring and 11th in putts from inside 10 feet. With great current form and missing out on two playoffs recently, this could be the week Kisner gets his long awaited win.

 

Tony Finau 35/1 Greenbrier Classic 2015

Tony Finau 35/1

I tipped Tony last week at The Travelers where he put in yet another solid performance finishing in a respectable T25. Before last week, he hadn’t finished outside the top 20 in his previous five events. He played well at Chambers Bay finishing T14, T8 at Memorial, T10 at The Byron Nelson, T19 at Colonial and T16 at The Wells Fargo in Quail Hollow. This course could suit the big hitting Finau, who is averaging 307 yards off the tee ranking seventh in driving distance.

He also ranks 36th in strokes gained tee to green, fourth in approaches from 150-175, 30th in par 4 scoring and 44th in par 5 scoring. This will be his first appearance at The Greenbrier and with great current form, this course could really suit his eye.

 

Brendan Todd 45/1 Greenbrier Classic 2015

Brendan Todd 45/1

Todd played well last week at The Travelers finishing T15, which included two 67’s on Saturday and Sunday. He also had a good week at The Memorial finishing solo 17th, which would have been a lot better if it weren’t for a disappointing 74 in the final round. He showed some good early season form finishing T8 at The HTOC, T10 in Pebble Beach, T14 at The Northern Trust and more recently, a solo fourth in Harbour Town at The RBC Heritage.

Todd has played well here in the past finishing T4 last year and seems to tick a lot of statistical boxes. He ranks 10th in driving distance, 13th in strokes gained putting and fourth in approaches from 100-125. He also ranks sixth in putts inside 10 feet, 20th in par 3 scoring and 18th in scrambling. With a good finish here last year, Todd could be another contender at a big price.

 

Final selections –

Webb Simpson 22/1 2pts EW

Bill Haas 28/1 1.5 pts EW

Kevin Kisner 30/1 1.5 pts EW

Tony Finau 35/1 1 pt EW

Brendan Todd 45/1 1 pt EW

Total staked = 14 pts

 

Good luck and enjoy the golf,

 

Doublebogey6

 

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FedEx St. Jude Classic Betting Preview 2015

FedEx St Jude Classic Betting Preview 2015 pic 1

TPC Southwind, Memphis, Tennessee

Par 70 7,239 Yards

 

The Course

The FedEx St. Jude Classic is held in Memphis, Tennessee and has been held annually since 1958, and is currently played at TPC Southwind, its home since 1989. This will be the final tournament before the US Open next week in Chambers Bay. TPC Southwind is a 7,239 yard par 70 with two par 5’s, four par 3’s and 12 par 4’s.

The fairways here are undulating and narrow and will demand a fair amount of accuracy. The rough isn’t too penal so it’s not the end of the world if you’re a bit erratic off the tee. There are roughly 100 bunkers with 10 water hazards coming into play with various streams, lakes and ponds scattered around the course. The greens here are quite small and undulating and will demand accurate iron shots and good putting in order to make birdies. The main areas of focus here are GIR, strokes gained tee to green, strokes gained putting, par 4 and par 3 scoring and current/previous form.

 

Billy Horchel 14/1 FedEx St Jude Classic Betting Preview 2015

Billy Horchel 14/1

Billy Horchel has been playing well over the last couple of months. His good form began back at The Valero Texas Open where he finished solo 3rd on four under par for the tournament. He followed that with a T17 at The WGC Matchplay, T13 at The Players Championship and a T11 at The Memorial last week in Ohio. He has played well here in the past finishing T6 last year and T10 in 2013.

Horchel seems to tick a lot of boxes statswise ranking 44th in driving distance, 15th in GIR, 28th in strokes gained putting and third in putting from 10 feet. With a good record here and great current form, Billy Horchel looks to be a good shout here.

 

Phil Mickelson 16/1 FedEx St Jude Classic Betting Preview 2015

Phil Mickelson 16/1

Phil hasn’t been firing on all cylinders so far this season, but he has put in some solid performances over the last couple of months. He had a respectable T17 at The Honda Classic, T17 in Houston, T2 at The Masters and a T4 at The Wells Fargo which would have been a lot better if he played that tricky 18th hole a bit better. Phil has played well here in the past finishing T11 last year and T2 in 2013.

Mickelson ranks 28th in driving distance, seventh in birdie average, seventh in approaches from 175-200 and seventh in par 5 scoring. Phil will be looking to put in a good week before Chambers Bay next week and should have a good week on a course he has played well on in the past.

 

Webb Simpson 16/1 FedEx St Jude Classic Betting Preview 2015

Webb Simpson 16/1

Webb has been showing some good form this season with three top 10’s in his last nine starts. He finished T7 at The Humana Challenge earlier this year and followed that with a T7 WGC Cadillac at Doral. Most recently, he finished T17 at The WGC Matchplay and had a great week at The Wells Fargo finishing T2, which included two 67’s in rounds one and two. He has played well here in the past finishing T3 last year.

Simpson ranks 32nd in driving accuracy, 19th in GIR, fourth in strokes gained tee to green and sixth in approaches from 150-175 yards. He also ranks 15th in scrambling, eighth in par 3 scoring and fourth in par 5 scoring. With good form over the last few months, Simpson could be a big danger man this week.

 

Brian Harman 60/1 FedEx St Jude Classic Betting Preview 2015

Brian Harman 60/1

Harman has been put together some great performances over the last few weeks with two top 10’s in his last four starts. He finished T8 at TPC Sawgrass shooting steady rounds of 71,69, 70,70 on his way to an eight under par total. He followed that with a T10 at The Crowne Plaza Invitational at Colonial shooting four rounds in 60’s finishing nine under par in total. Harman played well here last year finishing T6, which included a superb second round 65.

Statswise he ranks ninth in putts from inside 10 feet and 11th in putts from six feet, which are two good stats for putts on these small, undulating greens. With good current form and a good previous performance here, Brian Harman could be a great each way bet here.

 

George McNeill 7/2 Top 20 Finish FedEx St Jude Classic Betting Preview 2015

George McNeill – Top 20 Finish 7/2

George McNeill has put in some great performances lately with six top 20’s in his last ten starts. He finished T11 at The Honda Classic, T20 at The Valero Texas Open, T12 in New Orleans, T17 at The Players, T5 at Colonial and T13 last week at The Memorial. McNeill has played well here before finishing T28 last year, but comes here this week in much better form.

He ranks 32nd in strokes gained putting, eighth in approaches from 200 yards, 15th in approaches from 150-175 and 11th in putts from 10-15 feet. McNeill also ranks 46th in par 4 scoring and 22nd in par 5 scoring. With great current form, George McNeill looks great value for a top 20 finish here.

 

Final Selections –

Billy Horchel 14/1 2pts EW

Webb Simpson 16/1 1.5 pts EW

Phil Mickelson 16/1 1.5 pts EW

Brian Harman 60/1 1 pt EW

George McNeill – Top 20 finish 2pts

Total staked = 14 pts

 

Good luck and enjoy the golf,

 

Doublebogey6

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RBC Heritage Betting Preview 2015

RBC Heritage Betting Preview 2015

Hilton Head, South Carolina

Par 71, 7,101 yards 

The Course

This event has been played at Harbour Town Golf Links for many years now and the same players seem to play well here. The course is a short 7,101 yards and has three par 5’s, four par 3’s and 11 par 4’s. It is a tight course with tree lined fairways and small greens, which are ranked among the most difficult to hit on the PGA Tour. History suggests that the good, accurate ball strikers and good putters tend to do well around here. The greens here are quite small by Tour standards so GIR and good scrambling will be two key stats to look at. Hilton Head also tends to be quite windy so be on the lookout for good wind players.

The main stats to consider here are driving accuracy, GIR, par 4 scoring, scrambling and proximity to the hole. Unlike last week in Augusta National, you don’t need to be long on this course so a lot of the shorter more accurate players should come into the mix. Weather forecast is set to be cloudy and humid with showers and the possibility of thunderstorms on Thursday and Friday. The weekend will be cloudy, dry and humid with gusts up to 20 mph.

 

Zach Johnson RBC Heritage 16/1

Zach Johnson 16/1

After a great performance last week in Augusta, Zach Johnson recorded his second top 10 finish in his last three starts finishing T9 at The Masters. He also played well the week before at The Valero Texas Open finishing T20, which would have been a lot better if it weren’t for a poor final round 76. He also played well the week before at The Arnold Palmer Invitational finishing T9, which included an impressive final round 66.

He has played well at Hilton Head in the past finishing solo second in 2012, five strokes behind the winner Carl Pettersson. He ranks 21st in driving accuracy, 19th in strokes gained tee to green, 22nd in par 4 scoring and 23rd in par 5 scoring. Statswise Johnson’s game should suit this course and he comes here in good form, especially after a good week at Augusta.

 

Webb Simpson 33/1 RBC Heritage

Webb Simpson 33/1

Webb is another player that had a good week at Augusta and looked to be hitting the ball well all week. He had a disappointing 75 in round 2, but shot a 72,71 at the weekend to finish in respectable T28 on -1 for the tournament. He hasn’t played in many tournaments this year but has recorded two top 10 finishes and a top 15 in his last six starts. He had a good week at The Sony Open back in January finishing T13 on -11 for the tournament, which included an opening round 62. He followed that with a T7 at The Humana Challenge and another T7 at The WGC Cadillac in Doral.

He has played well here in the past finishing solo 2nd in 2013, T14 in 2011 and T14 in 2010. Simpson is hitting just under 65% of fairways off the tee and ranks 15th in GIR, seventh in strokes gained tee to green and 12th in scrambling. He also ranks 17th in par 3 scoring, 31st in par 4 scoring and 2nd in par 5 scoring. He showed good form here over the years and could be one to watch this week.

 

Charley Hoffman 33/1 RBC Heritage

Charley Hoffman 33/1

Hoffman was right in the thick of it from the beginning at Augusta last week opening with a superb 67. He continued that good run with a 68 in round 2 and a 71 in round 3. He shot a disappointing final round 74 to finish T9 on -8 for the tournament but put in a great week overall. He has been showing some great form lately finishing T11 at The Shell Houston Open, which included a final round 67 to finish in -10 for the tournament. He also played well the week before in Texas and was right in contention from the beginning shooting an opening round 67 and eventually finished T11.

Hoffman has played well here before recording two top 10 finishes over the last three years finishing T6 in 2013 and T8 in 2012. Hoffman ranks 32nd in driving distance, 47th in GIR, first in scrambling from the fringe and 14th in par 4 scoring. With a good record here and good current form, Charley Hoffman looks to be a good shout at a decent price.

 

Russell Henley 33/1 RBC Heritage

Russell Henley 33/1

Henley started 2015 off with a T3 at The Hyundai Tournament of Champions and followed that with a T17 at The Sony Open in Hawaii. He went slightly off the boil for the next few events but didn’t miss a cut. Most recently, he played well at The Houston Open finishing solo 4th and showed great consistency shooting 69,68,68,69 to finish on -14 for the tournament. He continued that consistency in Augusta last week shooting 68,74,72,71 finishing on -3 for the week and solo 21st.

He is another player that has played well here in the past finishing T6 in 2013, which would have been a lot better if it weren’t for a poor opening round 73. However, he went on to shoot 70,67,69 in the last three rounds to finish -5. Henley is hitting just under 65% of fairways off the tee and ranks 15th in strokes gained putting, seventh in putts inside 10 feet and 31st in par 4 scoring.

 

Kevin Streelman 50/1 RBC Heritage

Kevin Streelman 50/1

Streelman’s game looked to be in great shape last week in Augusta, where he matched his personal best in a major finishing T12. He also won the Par 3 contest on Wednesday, which must have given him a bit of confidence going into the main event. He showed some good early season form with a solo 2nd at The Shriners Open back in October and followed that with a respectable T26 at The CIMB Classic. He seems to be coming back into some form and has made the last four cuts in a row with top 40’s at The Valspar and Houston.

He has a good record in Harbour Town over the last few years with a T3 in 2013 and a T17 in 2012. Streelman seems to fit the bill statswise ranking 18th in driving accuracy hitting just under 70% of fairways off the tee. He also ranks 17th in GIR and ninth in par 4 scoring and could be a great each way chance.

 

Final selections –

Zach Johnson 16/1 2 pts EW

Webb Simpson 1.5 pts EW 33/1

Charley Hoffman 1.5 pts EW 33/1

Russell Henley 1 pt EW 33/1

Kevin Streelman 1 pt EW 50/1

Total staked = 14 pts

 

Good luck and enjoy the golf,

 

Doublebogey6

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The McGladrey Classic Betting Preview

McGladrey Classic

Seaside Course, Sea Island, Georgia
7,055 yards, Par 70

The Course

The PGA Tour travels to the windy Seaside Course in Georgia this week, where local resident Chris Kirk is the defending champion. This course is a par 70 and was developed in 1999 by designer Tom Fazio and can be a tough test, especially if the wind gets up. It has two par 5’s, four par 3’s and 12 par 4’s.

Previous winners include Heath Slocum (2010), Ben Crane (2011), Tommy Gainey (2012), and Chris Kirk (2013). The main thing that stands out here is that length is not important, however SGP, greens in regulation and par 4 scoring stats are certainly worth mentioning.

The Seaside Course has links style bermuda greens that have tricky run off areas which could be penalizing if the ball doesn’t stay on the short grass. The fairways are quite generous but any wayward tee shots could find long grass or one of the many strategically placed bunkers.

The main areas of focus for me this week are the usual, current form and previous form, SGP,GIR, par 4 scoring, strokes gained tee to green and proximity to the hole.

Webb Simpson 2

Webb Simpson 14/1
Webb had a great start to the new season last week at The Shriners Open in Vegas shooting four rounds in the sixties to finish 15 under par and T4th for the week. He also had a good finish to the 2013/2014 season with a T5 at The Wyndham, T9 at The Deutsche Bank and a respectable T23 at The Tour Championship in East Lake.

Simpson has a great record here at The Seaside Course finishing T7 last year, second in 2011 losing to Ben Crane in a playoff and T12th in 2010. Last week Webb ranked second in GIR and GIR tee to green, 10th in par 4 birdie or better leaders and first in GIR from 75 yards and 100 yards. After a good week in Vegas combined with a great record here over the last few years, it’s hard to bet against Webb this week.

Bill Haas pic 1

Bill Haas 16/1
Haas played well towards the end of the season not finishing worse than T16 in his last five events. He finished T2 at The Wyndham which included a final round 64, a T15 at The Barclays, T9 at The Deutsche Bank, T16 at The BMW Championship and 16th place finish at The Tour Championship. Haas also has a good record at The Seaside course finishing second in 2010 in his one and only appearance.

He also ticks a lot of boxes statswise, ranking 15th in GIR, 17th in strokes gained tee to green, 38th in par 4 performance and third in par 5 performance last season. He also ranked sixth in GIR from 150 yards and eighth in proximity form the sand, which will be a big help if he gets himself into some of these tricky greenside and fairway bunkers. This could be an event where Haas could really flourish, especially after finishing the season so well recently.

Scott Brown Pic 1

Scott Brown 33/1
Scott Brown arrives to Sea Island this week with two top 12 finishes in his last two events. He started the season well at The Frys with a T12 finishing on ten under par for the tournament. He then followed that with another good performance in TPC Summerlin last week shooting a final round 66 to finish T10th on thirteen under par. In his previous two appearances here, Brown finished T20 in 2012 and T4 here last year.

So far this season he ranks 15th in strokes gained putting, 30th strokes gained tee to green, 14th in par 4 birdie or better leaders, fourth in par four scoring and 33rd in proximity to the hole. After starting the season well, I expect Brown to continue that good form this week in a weaker field.

Tony Finau pic 1

Tony Finau 50/1
Finau has been riding on the crest of a wave recently with five top 20 finishes, including two top 10’s, in his last six events. He finished the Web.com season well with good performances at The Hotel Fitness Championship (T19), The Nationwide Children’s Hospital Championship (T6) and The Web.com Tour Championship finishing T14th. He has started his PGA Tour season exceptionally well with a T12 at The Frys and a T7 at The Shriners Open last week in Vegas.

Statswise he ranks 20th in GIR, fourth in strokes gained tee to green, first in par 5 performance and 37th in par 4 birdie or better leaders. With a great start to the season, Finau could be one to watch here this week.

Robert Streb pic 1

Robert Streb 66/1
Streb is another player that as started the season well with a respectable T31 at The Frys and a T10 last week at The Shriners. He also had a good finish to the season with good performances at The Barracuda Championship (T14), The Wyndham (T18) and a T9 finish at The Deutsche Bank Championship.

He is also another player that seems to fit the bill in terms of stats. He ranks 35th in strokes gained tee to green, first in par 4 scoring, 25th in total putting and 15th in approaches from 125-150, which is a big plus for approaches into the par 4’s. With a T10 last week, he’ll be arriving here with a lot of confidence and should have a good week.

Final Selections
Webb Simpson 2pts EW at 14/1
Bill Haas 2pts EW at 16/1
Scott Brown 1 pt EW at 33/1
Tony Finau 1 pt EW at 50/1
Robert Streb 1 pt EW at 66/1
Total staked = 14 pts

Good luck and enjoy the golf,

DB

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The BMW Championship: Fedex Cup Playoffs

BMW Championship_Roundel Stacked

Cherry Hills Country Club, Colorado
Par 71, 7,466 yards

The Course
The third leg of the FedEx Cup Playoffs travels to Cherry Hills in Colorado this week for the BMW Championship. Cherry Hills is a 7,466 yard par 71 located just south of Denver. Previous winners of this event include Zach Johnson (2013), Rory McIlroy (2012), Justin Rose (2011), Dustin Johnson (2010), Tiger Woods (2009 and 2007) and Camilo Villegas (2008).

This course has some history attached to it with Arnold Palmer winning his one and only US Open title here back in 1960. It also played host to the 1990 US Amateur when Phil Mickelson was crowned the winner. Looking through the list of previous winners, it seems that this event proves that only the best players really contend here.

Cherry Hills has three par 5’s and four par 3’s with some of the par 4’s reachable in one. Accuracy will be important here as a lot of the fairways are tree lined, so keeping it straight off the tee will be a key. The rough around the greens is deep and tricky to manage so GIR will be another key factor here as these greens are a bit smaller than the average. This course is at high altitude so it may not play as long as the yardage suggests.

Bill Haas pic 1

Bill Haas 33/1
After a solid final round 69 last week at TPC Boston, Bill Haas recorded his third top 15 finish in his last three starts. Haas was very steady all week at The Barclays shooting three 70’s and a final round 67 to finish T15 and seven under for the tournament. He also played well the week before at The Wyndham carding a final round 64 to finish T2 on 17 under. He also had top 10’s at The WGC Cadillac finishing T6th and more recently, The Memorial finishing T8.

Haas ranks 11th in GIR, 18th in strokes gained tee to green and 12th in GIR from 150-175 yards. He was T1st last week in GIR along with Scott and Streelman hitting 55 greens from 72 and hasn’t missed a cut this season.

Jimmy Walker pic 1

Jimmy Walker 33/1
Walker seems to be a bit of a snake in the grass here this week and comes here after shooting a final round 67 finishing T9th. He started the season off in style with wins at The Frys.com Open, The Sony Open and the AT&T at Pebble Beach. He has performed well on the big stage this year and I don’t see this week being any different.

He had great performances at The Masters (T8), The US Open (T9), The PGA Championship (T7) and a respectable T26 at The Open. Walker also played great golf at Sawgrass closing with a 65 to finish T6th. Statswise, he ranks 18th in driving distance, seventh in SGP, second in birdie average, 30th in GIR and 33rd in rough proximity. He comes to Cherry Hills showing good form and cold be one to watch here this week.

Hunter Mahan 33/1
Mahan played great golf in the final round of The Barclays shooting a 65 to clinch victory. Before that, he had two top 15 finishes under his belt which came at The WGC Bridgestone Invitational (T15) and The PGA Championship at Valhalla finishing T7. Mahan had a less than impressive performance at The Deutsche Bank shooting 73,71,73 in the first three rounds but came back on Sunday and shot an impressive final round 68.

Mahan ranks third in total driving, 32nd in GIR, 39th in SGP and sixth in GIR from 150-175 yards. His stats seem to suit this course and if he keeps the ball straight off the tee, he could be a big danger man here.

Webb Simpson 2

Webb Simpson 40/1
Webb’s form has been a little bit up and down this season but he has put in some super performances recently. He recorded his ninth top 10 of the season last week at TPC Boston finishing T9th, bouncing back well after missing the cut at The Barclays. He also put in a great performance at The Wyndham finishing T5, which included an opening round 64. Simpson has a further two third place finishes recently coming at The FedEx St Jude and The Greenbrier.

His stats also look to suit this course ranking 20th in SGP, 15th in birdie average and 21st in par 4 performance. He also ranks 15th in GIR from 175-200 yards and third in both approaches from 100-125 and 75-100 yards. He is showing some good form and looks to be a good shout here at Cherry Hills this week.

Geoff Ogilvy 50/1
Ogilvy had a great performance last week at The Deutsche Bank and looked to be in contention right up to the end. He shot two 65’s in round three and four to finish 13 under and T2 for the tournament. He put in another superb performance a couple of weeks ago in Reno when he won The Barracuda Championship beating Justin Hicks and John Huh.

He ranks seventh in GIR percentage from other than fairway and eighth in rough proximity so if he misses the fairway this week, he should be ok. Last week at TPC Boston, he ranked 14th in GIR and sixth in scrambling. Ogilvy seems to be on form lately and looks to be good value at 50/1.

Final selections:
Bill Haas 1.5 pts EW
Jimmy Walker 1.5 pts EW
Hunter Mahan 1.5 pts EW
Webb Simpson 1.5 pts EW
Geoff Ogilvy 1 pt EW
Total staked = 14 pts

Good luck and enjoy the golf,

DB

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USPGA Championship Betting Preview

PGA Championship Betting Preview

August 8-11, Oak Hill Country Club, New York

Tiger’s Domination of Firestone –

What a week Tiger had in Firestone, winning by an impressive 7 shots over Henrik Stenson and Keegan Bradley. Let’s face it, it wasn’t a huge shocker considering he’s playing absolutely fantastic golf at the moment and given his record around Firestone, if he got away to a decent start, the rest of the field would be chasing, and that’s exactly how it played out. That’s another winner for me this week not to mention yet another place on my man of the season so far, Henrik Stenson. Overall, a very good week was had, I could get used to this….

Well it’s the last major of the year, with Oak Hill in New York playing host a second time to this illustrious tournament. Shaun Micheel won this last time it was played here on only 4 under par back in 2003, so that’ll give an indication of how tough it will be.  Oak Hill will be set up similar to the US Open at Merion with tight fairways and plenty of trees both sides so accuracy and distance off the tee will be of particular importance this week. Here are my thoughts on who to watch in The 2013 PGA Championship.

 

Tiger Woods 5/1

There’s not much I can say about Tiger that you don’t already know. He’s just having a phenomenal season so far with his fifth win of the 2013 season coming in Firestone last week, blitzing the field by 7 shots to win on 15 under. His other wins include The Farmers, The WGC Cadillac, The Arnold Palmer and The Players. In 11 starts, he has won 5 times, been in the top 10 twice at The Open Championship and The Masters, only because he was penalised in The Masters he probably would’ve won that as well. The last time he played in The PGA on this course he finished tied 39th on +12 but that wouldn’t concern me here this week. Some slight concerns are his driving accuracy and distance stats in which he is 53rd and 44th. However, he is ranked 4th in Strokes Gained, 2nd in Birdie Average, 1st in Scoring Average, 8th in Sand Saves and 8th in Total Driving. If Tiger can keep the ball on the short stuff, he will be right up there come Sunday.

 

Adam Scott 18/1

I’ve decided to take Scotty again this week, basically because he is always there or there about in the majors. He had a respectable finish last week in Firestone finishing in tied 14th. After a super performance in The Open Championship at Muirfield, finishing tied 3rd a couple of weeks ago, he is certainly a man that’s in great form at the moment. In 2003, Scott finished in tied 23rd shooting a 69 and a pair of 72’s only to shoot a disappointing 75 in the final round and without a doubt could’ve been better. After winning The Masters beating Angel Cabrera in a playoff and coming tied 3rd in The Open, Scott has two more top 10’s this season at The WGC Cadillac and The Northern Trust Open. Stats wise he ranks 21st in Driving Distance, 3rd in Scoring Average, 24th in GIR and 14th in total Driving. Stats combined with recent good form and a good overall season so far make Scott a good bet here this week and could bag yet another top 5 if not a win here in the last major of 2013.

 

Henrik Stenson 26/1

I’m going with Stenson again this week as I think he’s just a place machine at the moment with three top three finishes in his last three starts including tied 2nd last week to Tiger in Firestone (in which he got me a place), 2nd on his own in The Open Championship in (which he got me a place) and tied 3rd finish at The Scottish Open not to mention a Tied 10th finish in The BMW International Open in Germany the week before that. His European Tour stats are 4th in Stroke Average, 9th in Driving Distance and 6th in GIR. On the PGA Tour, his stats are 6th in Driving Accuracy, 2nd in GIR, 7th in Scoring Average and 4th in Total Driving. In my opinion, he’s on the cusp of a win and it very well come here at Oak Hill this week. Watch this space….

 

Webb Simpson 66/1

I have to say I thought Webb looked great in the first round in Firestone last week shooting an opening round 64 to take the lead after day one, only to fall off the pace after shooting rounds of 75,73 and finally shot a decent final round 66. I think it all boils down to consistency with his form being a little streaky at the moment but there are signs of him showing some decent form lately with a good finish at The Travellers to finish in Tied 5th. He has had a decent season so far, finishing in tied 6th at The Northern Trust Open, tied 5th the following week at the Accenture Matchplay, not to mention finishing in 2nd at The RBC Heritage back in April. If he can get a bit of consistency and shoot four good rounds he will certainly be well up there come the weekend.

 

Zach Johnson 50/1

A serious danger man here this week in my opinion. Johnson has 3 top 6’s in his last 3 events finishing in tied 4th last week at Firestone, tied 6th at The Open Championship in which he putted very poorly and finished in 2nd place at The John Deere Classic ( in which I had him backed ) only to lose in a playoff to Jordan Spieth. Johnson also had a good finish in The Crowne Plaza Invitational back in May finishing in 3rd place on his own. He ranks 12th in Driving Accuracy, hitting an average of 68.10% of fairways, which will be a big help here this week.

 

Ernie Els 90/1

Last time Ernie played Oak Hill he finished in tied 5th shooting very steady rounds of 71,70,70,71. As I expect this course to be a very similar layout to Merion, in which Ernie finished in tied 4th a couple of weeks ago, I think the big easy will dig up the good vibes he had when he played here in 2003 and have a good week. He has had a pretty good season with a win under his belt in The BMW International Open in Germany and also had a tied 6th finish at The BMW PGA in Wentworth. In his last 6 majors, Ernie has a winner and 2 top 10’s coming at the 2012 and 2013 US Open’s. At 90/1 I think he is a great each way shout.

 

Final Selections –

Tiger Woods – 3ptsEW/6pts total

Adam Scott – 2ptsEW/4pts total

Henrik Stenson – 2ptsEW/4pts total

Webb Simpson – 1.5ptsEW/3pts total

Zach Johnson – 1ptEW/2pts total

Ernie Els – 1ptEW/2pts total

 

Best of Luck and enjoy the last major of 2013.

DoubleBogey6                                                      – Follow me on Twitter @Doublebogey63