Valspar Championship Betting Preview 2015

Valspar Championship Betting Preview 2015

Copperhead Course, Innisbrook Resort, Palm Harbour, Florida

Par 71, 7,340 yards

The Course

There are four golf courses at Innisbrook, all designed by Larry Packard, the oldest of which is the Island Course, which was completed in 1970. The Copperhead Course came next in 1974, and originally had 27 holes before nine were used as the basis of the Highlands North Course. The final addition was the Highlands South Course

The Copperhead course is a lengthy par 71 and has four par 5’s, five par 3’s and nine par 4’s. All but one of the par 3’s measure over 200 yards and will demand good accurate iron play to score on the greens, which are smaller than average for PGA Tour standards. The par 5’s measure between 560-605 yards and should be difficult to hit in two for most of the field. Two out of the four par 5’s have double doglegs so an accurate tee shot can be well rewarded. Although this course is long, there is more of an emphasis on accuracy. Players will score well if they place their tee shot in the right part of the fairways here.

Players that can work the ball both directions off the tee should also have a big advantage. Just like last week in Doral, water will be a key feature this week with it coming into play on 9 out of the 18 holes so expect some drama. This course features three tricky closing holes on the back 9 in the shape of 16, 17 and 18 which are called the “Snake Pit”. It consists of two very tricky par 4’s and a difficult par 3 and is known as one of the most difficult closing three hole stretches on Tour.

There are a few stats to consider on this course, the first one being accuracy off the tee. It also boasts five par 3’s and four par 5’s so be on the lookout for good par 3 and par 5 performance stats and good all round driving. The greens here are Bermuda greens and are quite small and tricky to read so be on the lookout for good GIR stats and accurate approach stats.

 

Jordan Spieth 14/1 Valspar ChampionshipJordan Spieth 14/1

After a respectable T17 last week at The WGC Cadillac, Jordan Spieth comes to Copperhead in great form. Other than a missed cut at The Farmers, Spieth hasn’t finished worse than T17 in his last six events. He had a great week at The Hero World Challenge in December shooting 26 under par in total to win the tournament. He followed that with another win, which came at The Australian Open, a T7 at The Phoenix Open, another T7 at The AT&T National in Pebble Beach and a T4 at The Northern Trust Open.

He has a good record here finishing T20 last year and T7 in 2013. Statswise he ranks 30th in driving distance, ninth in strokes gained tee to green, fourth in approaches from 275 and ninth in approaches from 200-225. He also ranks seventh in approaches from 150-175 and first in approaches from 100 yards. Spieth also ranks number one in putting from 15-20 feet, which is a good stat for these small greens. With great current form, good previous performances here and great approach stats, Jordan Spieth could be the man to beat here this week.

 

Jim Furyk 22/1 Valspar Championship 2015Jim Furyk 22/1

Furyk has been frustrating to watch over the last few years failing to get the job done on numerous occasions when in contention, falling off the pace after a bogey or two on the back nine on a Sunday. However, I think he will get that monkey off his back one of these days and Copperhead could be the place to do it. Furyk hasn’t finished worse than T14 in his last three starts and is one of the most consistent players on tour. He held the 54 hole lead in Pebble Beach a couple of weeks ago only to shoot a disappointing final round 74 to finish T7. He followed that with a respectable T14 at The Northern Trust Open finishing on two under for the tournament. Furyk also had a good performance at The WGC Cadillac last week finishing T12, which included a final round 69.

His record on this course is super with a win in 2010, T13 in 2011, T2 in 2012, T7 in 2013 and a T20 last year. Furyk ranks 10th in driving accuracy, 18th in GIR, first in strokes gained tee to green and second in approaches from 200 yards. He also ranks fourth in approaches from 100 yards, fourth in approaches from 175-200 and 27th in par 3 scoring. If he is going to get a win anywhere, it could be here.

 

Luke Donald 25/1 Valspar ChampionshipLuke Donald 25/1

Luke Donald has been showing some good form lately finishing T7 at The Honda Classic a couple of weeks ago, which included two 67’s to finish on three under for the tournament. He was showing some good form before Christmas playing well at The Nedbank Challenge in South Africa finishing solo 3rd on 12 under. He also had a good finish to the 2014 European Tour season finishing T26 at The DP World Championship in Dubai.

He has a great record on this course and hasn’t finished worse than T6 in his last four appearances. He played well here last year finishing T4, T4 again in 2013, won in 2012 and finished T6 in 2010. Donald is another player with good approach stats ranking 20th in approaches from 275 yards, 12th in approaches from 125-150, 12th from 150-175 and 18th in approaches from 100 yards. He also ranks second in putts from 8 feet, which is a good stat for these small Bermuda greens.

 

Kevin Na 50/1 Valspar Championship 2015Kevin Na 50/1         

After a respectable T9 last week at The WGC Cadillac, Kevin Na comes back to Copperhead showing some good recent form. He showed good consistency last week shooting 74,71,71,71 to finish one under for the tournament. He has been showing snippets of form over the last few months finishing T2 at The CIMB Classic back in November, T20 at The WGC HSBC Champions and more recently a T26 at The Phoenix Open. Na played well here last year shooting 70,68,68,70 on his way to a six under finish and solo second, one stroke behind the winner John Senden.

Statswise Na ranks 27th in par 3 scoring, 13th in approaches from 100-125 yards and 26th in approaches from 200-225 yards, which is a good stat for approaches into the long par 5’s. With a good performance last week and a top five last year, Na could feature at a good price.

 

Will MacKenzie 66/1 Valspar ChampionshipWill MacKenzie 66/1

After being off with an injured hand for the last couple of months, Will MacKenzie played his first event of 2015 in Puerto Rico last week and finished with an impressive T6. In his last five starts, he has finished with three top 10’s since the end of October. He started the season with a P2 at The McGladrey Classic, where he got into a playoff with eventual winner Robert Streb and was knocked out but played solid all week. He followed that with a T9 at The OHL Classic, which included an opening round 65 and a closing round 66 to post 11 under for the tournament.

MacKenzie ranks 25th in driving accuracy, third in GIR, third in strokes gained tee to green, second in strokes gained total and eighth in par 4 scoring. After a great performance last week in Puerto Rico and a top 5 here last year, MacKenzie could be another player that could feature at a big price.

 

Final Selections –

Jordan Spieth 2 pts EW 14/1

Jim Furyk 1 pt EW 22/1

Luke Donald 1 pt EW 25/1  

Kevin Na 1 pt EW 50/1

Will MacKenzie 1 pt EW 66/1

Total staked = 12 pts

 

Good luck and enjoy the golf,

 

Doublebogey6

 

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OHL Classic at Mayakoba Betting Preview 2014

OHL Classic 2014 pic 1

The Course – El Camaleon GC, Playa Del Carmen, Mexico
6,987 Yards, Par 71

The Course

It’s the final PGA Tour event of 2014 with El Camaleon Golf Club in Mexico playing host for The OHL Classic at Mayakoba. Previous winners here include Harris English (2013), John Huh (2012), Johnson Wagner (2011), Cameron Beckman (2010), Mark Wilson (2009) and Brian Gay (2008).

Looking at previous winners here, it appears that accuracy off the tee is a key indicator along with GIR. Key stats on this course are driving accuracy, GIR and par 4 scoring. Good wind players will also fare well at this venue as it’s located on the Caribbean Sea. It may also be worth looking at players who have played well on other similar seaside courses such as Waialae Country Club, host of the Sony Open in Hawaii and Harbour Town Golf Links, which hosts the RBC Heritage.

This course was designed by Greg Norman and is classed as one of the easiest courses on The PGA Tour. It has three par 5’s, four par 3’s and 12 par 4’s. The fairways here are quite large and forgiving but there are hazards to be wary of. It winds between three different landscapes – Tropical jungle, dense mangroves, sand lined oceanfront and thick vegetation.

Harris English won here last year shooting the tournament record of 21 under par 263 for the tournament. The weather is to be a bit cloudy but very warm and dry with some moderate winds. With the weather being good, expect the scoring to be low.

Brian Stuard pic 1

Brian Stuard 33/1
I think Stuard could be a popular selection among us golf punters this week given his history at this event. Stuard has been runner up here twice in two appearances finishing second to Cameron Beckman in 2010 and again to Harris English last year, so he seems to be a horse for the course. Despite a poor start to the season, he played well at The CIMB Classic recently, finishing T13 on nine under par for the tournament.

Stuard also played very well in Waialae at The Sony Open finishing solo sixth and also put in a good week at The RBC Heritage in Harbour Town finishing T5th earlier in the season, which are similar set ups to this week’s venue. After taking last week off and with such a good record here at El Camaleon and a good performance recently at The CIMB Classic, this could be the week Brian Stuard breaks through with a win.

Jason Bohn pic 1

Jason Bohn 33/1
Bohn has started the new season well despite missing the cut at The Frys. He finished T18 at The Shriners in Vegas and followed that with a T2 last week at The Sanderson Farms Championship shooting 68,71,66,69 on his way to a 14 under par finish. He is another player that has played well here in the past finishing T3 last year and had a top 20 here in 2011 finishing T19th.

When you look at his stats, he seems to fit the bill ranking 48th in driving accuracy, seventh in GIR and 20th in strokes gained tee to green. He also ranks 20th in approaches from 100-125 yards, which is a good stat for approaches into some of the short par 4’s. After a good performance last week and a good previous record here, Bohn looks like a good bet here this week.

Rory Sabbatini pic 1

Rory Sabbatini 35/1
Rory Sabbatini is another player that has started the season well with a T22 at The McGladrey Classic and a T8 at The CIMB Classic in Malaysia. He has proven to be another horse for the course at El Camaleon finishing T3 here last year and T5 in 2011. Sabbatini had a disappointing season last year finishing with only three top 10’s, one of which came at The RBC Heritage earlier in the year where he finished T9th on five under par, which is a good indicator for this week.

Staswise he ranks seventh in GIR, 26th in strokes gained tee to green and sixth in par 4 performance. He also ranks first in GIR from 100-125 and GIR from 75-100 yards, which is a good stat for the short par 4’s. Sabbatini is a complete horse for the course and comes here after a good finish at The CIMB Classic. I expect that good form to continue here this week.

Hudson Swafford pic 1

Hudson Swafford 50/1
Hudson Swafford is another player to enjoy a promising start to the 2014/2015 season. He started with a T8 at the Frys.com Open, which included a final round 67 to finish on 11 under par. He followed that with a good week at The Shriners Open in Vegas shooting 69,67,68,69 showing superb consistency to finish T18. At The McGladrey Classic, he continued showing good consistency shooting rounds of 70,67,66,67 to finish T12 and 12 under par for the tournament.

Swafford is hitting just over 60% of fairways so far this season and ranks 45th in GIR, 18th in birdie average, third in par 3 performance and 19th in par 5 performance. Despite this being his first visit to this event, I reckon he can continue his good form here in a relatively weakened field.

Will MacKenzie pic 1

Will MacKenzie 50/1
MacKenzie had a superb start to the season getting into a playoff with Robert Streb and Brendon De Jonge at The McGladrey Classic. He dramatically bogeyed the par 4 16th in the final round to drop one stroke behind the leaders and then went on to birdie the par 3 17th to get into the playoff. He was knocked out of the playoff and had to contend for second, but played super golf all week. He showed great consistency shooting rounds of 65,68,65,68 to finish on 14 under par for the tournament. MacKenzie also played in the CIMB Classic, which was his first visit to Kuala Lumpur finishing T52 after a disappointing final round 76.

He has played well here at El Camaleon in the past finishing T12 last year and hasn’t missed a cut in his last three appearances. MacKenzie also seems to fit the bill statswise ranking 29th in driving accuracy, third in strokes gained tee to green and first in strokes gained total. After coming close in a similar field at The McGladrey, MacKenzie has the game and potential to have a good week on a course he has played well on in the past.

Final selections
Brian Stuard 1.5 pts EW 33/1
Jason Bohn 1 pt EW 33/1
Rory Sabbatini 1.5 pts EW 35/1
Hudson Swafford 1 pt EW 50/1
Will MacKenzie 1pt EW 60/1
Total staked = 12 pts

Good luck and enjoy the golf,
DB

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