US Open Betting Preview 2017 – Erin Hills

US Open Betting Preview 2017 - Erin Hills Erin Hills, Erin, Wisconsin

Par 72, 7,693 Yards 

The Course 

The US Open has always traditionally been a very tricky test with deep rough, fast greens and lots of run off areas and Erin Hills looks to be keeping up with that trend. This course is relatively young with construction taking place in 2004 and opening two years later in 2006. It was designed on 400 acres of pasture land and has been left relatively untouched. The designers decided to leave it as is using the natural contours of the land leaving it wide open with plenty of wind an very few trees. A mix of dunes, fescue grasses and penal bunkers give Erin Hills a “Linksy” look and feel to it.

There are four par 3’s, ten par 4’s and four par 5’s in total. Although it measures a lengthy 7,693 yards, it can play shorter depending on wind direction and tee position. The fairways have been described as dry and bouncy so this will allow for a lot of run on the ball. Kevin Na posted a video on Instagram showing the depth of the rough and it looks pretty awful, measuring roughly between one and two feet in places. If your tee shot ends up in there, forget about it.

The front nine seems fairly manageable but the back nine looks a far stiffer challenge. There are some blind tee shots with some very tricky bunkers so good scrambling will be a big plus. Some of the bentgrass greens are elevated like an upturned saucer shape with lots of run off areas, similar to Pinehurst No.2, the venue for the 2014 US Open. The greens are fractionally larger than previous US Open greens and could run quite fast if the wind gets up.

Going by this course and previous US Opens, the main areas of focus are GIR, driving accuracy, driving distance, putting average and scrambling. You can view Erin Hills hole by hole guide by clicking here

 

Rickie Fowler 20/1 US Open Betting Preview 2017 Erin HillsRickie Fowler 20/1

It could be Rickie’s time to bag his first major and who would begrudge him? He arrives in Erin Hills in the best form of his career with a win and six top 10’s so far this season. He had a great win at the Honda Classic in Florida at the end of February and kept up his good form with a solo 12th in Bay Hill, T3 in Houston, T11 in Augusta and a T2 recently at the Memorial Tournament in Ohio.

Fowler has proven to be a great wind and links player over the last few years with a win at the 2015 Scottish Open in Gullane, a T8 in Royal Aberdeen in 2014 and a T2 at The Open Championship in 2014 in Hoylake. He has also played well at the US Open in the past finishing T10 in Merion in 2013 and a T2 in Pinehurst in 2014.

Fowler also ticks a lot of statistical boxes here ranking 33rd in driving distance, 25th in driving accuracy, 29th in GIR, seventh in strokes gained putting and 22nd in scrambling. When you weigh it all up its hard not to fancy Rickie’s chances here in Erin Hills.

 

Jon Rahm 20/1 US Open Betting Preview 2017 Erin Hills Jon Rahm 20/1 

Big hitting Spaniard Jon Rahm has made quite an impact on the PGA Tour this season with a win and seven top 10’s under his belt so far. After shooting a final round 65 at the Farmers Insurance Open in February, Rahm bagged his first PGA Tour win at previous US Open venue, Torrey Pines, finishing on 13 under par in total. He has shown some great consistency this year finishing T5 at Pebble Beach, T3 at the WGC Mexico Championship, solo second at the WGC Matchplay, T10 in Houston, solo fourth at the Wells Fargo and a T2 at the Dean & Deluca in Colonial recently. Rahm has one appearance at The US Open which was last year in Oakmont where he finished in a respectable T23.

Statswise he has the length to score around this course averaging just over 305 yards off the tee ranking 13th in driving distance. He also ranks 15th in GIR, 19th in scrambling and second in par 4 scoring. Rahm is a serious talent and its only a matter of time before he wins not one, but multiple major championships in the future.

 

Thomas Pieters 40/1 US Open Betting Preview 2017 - Erin Hills Thomas Pieters 40/1 

Pieters has had a good season so far and could be another player that could suit a long, tricky test like Erin Hills. He played well at the Dubai Desert Classic back in February finishing T23 and followed that with a T5 at the WGC Mexico Championship and a T4 in Augusta, which included two 68’s. Thomas then went to Wentworth for the BMW PGA Championship and finished T14 shooting three rounds in the 60’s to finish four under par in total.

The big hitting Belgian is averaging just over 309 off the tee ranking 22nd in driving distance. He also ranks 11th in putting average and 21st in stroke average on the European Tour this season. If he can keep the ball in short grass off the tee, Pieters looks good value to have a good week here.

 

Branden Grace 40/1 US Open Betting Preview 2017 Erin Hills Branden Grace 40/1

The South African has been coming into some good form lately and has proven himself to be a great wind player. He finished T27 at The Masters at the end of April and followed that with a T11 at the RBC Heritage, a T10 in Texas and a respectable T24 in New Orleans. Grace is the kind of player that has proven he can really tough it out on the stiffer US Open tests with two top 10’s over the last two years. He finished T5 last year in Oakmont and came close to winning in Chambers Bay in 2015 but pulled his tee shot left on the 16th out of bounds which ended up costing him a double bogey.

He is a proven wind player with two wins at The Qatar Masters in the windy Doha Golf Club, a win at Harbour Town Golf Links at the RBC Heritage in 2016 and a T13 this year at The Sony Open in Hawaii. Grace is playing well at the moment and has the game to be a big danger man here.

 

Kevin Kisner 55/1 US Open Betting Preview 2017 Erin Hills Kevin Kisner 55/1

Kisner has been in fine fettle this season showing some great consistency. His good run of form began back in January where he finished T4 at the windy Waialae Country Club, home of the Sony Open. He followed that with a T10 in Pebble Beach, T2 at the Arnold Palmer in Bay Hill, T11 at the RBC Heritage, a win at the Dean & Deluca Invitational in Colonial and an impressive T6 at The Memorial in Ohio.

Kisner has had some good finishes in the Majors over the last couple of years finishing T12 at The US Open in Chambers Bay  in 2016 and T18 at The US PGA Champonship in Baltusrol. The American also ticks a few key statistical boxes here ranking 12th in driving accuracy, 23rd in strokes gained putting and 28th in scrambling. Kisner is another proven wind specialist and could be another one to keep an eye on here.

 

Final Selections – 

Rickie Fowler 1pt EW 20/1 

Jon Rahm 1pt EW 20/1 

Thomas Pieters 0.5pts EW 40/1 

Branden Grace 0.5pts EW 40/1 

Kevin Kisner 0.5pts EW 55/1 

Total staked = 7 pts

 

*Paddypower paying 8 places* 

 

Good luck and enjoy the golf,

 

Doublebogey6

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USPGA Championship 2015 Betting Preview

USPGA Championship 2015 Betting Preview

Whistling Straits, Kohler, Wisconsin

7,790 yards, par 72

The Course

The Straits Course is a Pete Dye designed par 72 and is the flagship course at Whistling Straits. It has 10 par 4’s, four par 5’s and four par 3’s. It is a links style course and replicated the old links courses of the UK and Ireland. It hosted the 2004 PGA Championship won by Vijay Singh in a playoff over Chris DiMarco and Justin Leonard, the 2007 U.S. Senior Open won by Brad Bryant, and the 2010 PGA Championship won by Martin Kaymer in a playoff over Bubba Watson. The course is host the championship for a third time in 2015 and the 2020 Ryder Cup.

Nestled along a two-mile stretch of Lake Michigan, the course has eight holes hugging the lake, elevation changes of approximately 80 feet, and three stone bridges. The stone bridges are located on holes 1,9,10 and 18 with many scattered sand dune areas. It has vast rolling greens, deep pot bunkers, grass-topped dunes and winds that sweep in off the lake. The fairways are natural fescue fairways with bentgrass greens averaging 7,500 square feet. A lot of the greens are guarded by bunkers, over 500 scattered around the course in total, so good scramblers and bunker players will have an advantage.

There will be an element of accuracy needed around this course with a lot of scattered fairway and greenside bunkers so accuracy off the tee will be important. There are 14 water hazards in total with a lot of holes running along the coastline.

The 10 par 4’s will measure roughly 400+ yards long and will demand accurate iron play from between 100-200 yards in order to get the ball close to these pins. Some of the par 5’s could be reachable in two by some of the bigger hitters depending on the wind. The average length of the par 5’s measure around the 600 yard mark, so a lot of players will be laying up with their second shots. The par 3’s will offer a tricky test and measure between 140-220 and will demand accurate iron play to make birdies.

The key areas of focus are par 3,4 and 5 scoring, GIR, strokes gained putting, accurate iron play from 100-200 yards, scrambling, driving distance/accuracy and strokes gained tee to green.

 

Jaosn Day 14/1 USPGA Championship 2015

Jason Day 14/1

The Aussie has been playing super golf so far with two wins already this season. His first win came at The Farmers Insurance Open in Torrey Pines back in February beating J.B. Holmes on the second playoff hole. He also won The RBC Canadian Open recently shooting a superb final round 68 birdieing the last three holes in a row to beat Bubba Watson by one stroke. Day had a good performance last week in Firestone shooting a superb final round 69 to finish T12. He has put together some great performances in the Majors over the last few weeks finishing T9 at The US Open and T4 at The Open Championship in St Andrews. He did come close to winning and had a birdie putt on the 18th to get into the playoff with Johnson, Oosthuizen and Leishman, but it narrowly slid past the hole.

Day has played well here in Whistling Straits in the past finishing T10 in 2010, four strokes behind the winner Martin Kaymer. He has also played well in this tournament in the past finishing T15 last year in Valhalla and T8 in Oak Hill in 2013.

Statswise, Day ranks second in driving distance, 28th in GIR, 27th in strokes gained tee to green and 20th in strokes gained putting. He also ranks fourth in approaches from 200-225, seventh in approaches from 175-200 second in par 4 scoring, fourth in par 3 scoring and 10th in scrambling. Day has proven he can compete at the highest level and it is only a matter of time before he wins his first major and it could be here, where he has played well in the past.

 

Adam Scott 25/1 USPGA Championship 2015

Adam Scott 25/1

Scott has been showing some decent form over the last few weeks with two top 10’s in his last three starts. He played well in Chambers Bay shooting a superb final round 64 to finish T4 at The US Open and followed that with an impressive T10 in St Andrews at The Open Championship. He has played well at the USPGA in the past finishing T15 last year in Valhalla, T5 in Oak Hill in 2013, T11 in 2012 in Kiawah Island and solo 7th in 2011 at The Athletic Club in Georgia. Scott has played this course on both previous USPGA occasions finishing T9 in 2004 and T39 in 2010.

The Aussie seems to tick a lot of boxes here ranking fourth in driving distance, second in GIR, fifth in strokes gained tee to green, 26th in approaches from 150-175 and third in approaches from 100-125. Scott also ranks 22nd in par 4 scoring, 27th in par 5 scoring and 12th in par 4 birdie or better leaders, which is a good stat for scoring on the 12 par 4’s here. With good current form and a solid record around this course, Adam Scott could be a big threat here this week.

 

Louis Oosthuizen 35/1 USPGA Championship 2015

Louis Oosthuizen 35/1

Louis has been playing well recently and looks to have put any injury concerns behind him. He looked superb at The Open and putted extremely well all week, but sadly lost a playoff to in form Zach Johnson and ended up finishing second. Despite shooting a 77 in round one, Oosthuizen also had a superb week at The US Open in Chambers Bay and recovered well shooting rounds of 66,66,67 to get right back in the thick of things and finish T2 on four under for the tournament. Over the last two majors in particular, I think Louis has been particularly impressive with the putter. He has played well at all of the WGC’s, which are all elite fields finishing solo 6th at The WGC Cadillac earlier this year, T14 at the WGC HSBC Champions and T5 at The WGC Matchplay back in March.

Louis has played well in The USPGA in the past finishing in a respectable T15 in Valhalla last year and T21 in Oak Hill in 2013.He also ticks a lot of statistical boxes ranking 32nd in driving distance, 20th in GIR, 29th in strokes gained tee to green and 27th in approaches from 175-200 yards. He also ranks third in approaches from 200-225, sixth in approaches from 200+ and 13th in par 4 scoring. Oosthuizen always plays better on the bigger stages and is a bit overpriced here at 35/1.

 

Hideki Matsuyama 40/1 USPGA Championship 2015

Hideki Matsuyama 40/1

Matsuyama has been showing superb consistency throughout the year with eight top 10 finishes already under his belt. He has finished inside the top 25 in 10 of his 11 events including four top 10’s. His good run of form began back at The Northern Trust Open where he finished T4 and followed that with a T23 at The WGC Cadillac, T21 at The Arnold Palmer solo 5th at The Masters, T9 at The WGC Matchplay and a T17 at The Players. Most recently, he finished T20 at The Wells Fargo, T5 at Memorial, T18 at The US Open and T18 at The Open Championship.

He has played in two previous USPGA Championships finishing T35 in Valhalla last year and T19 in Oak Hill in 2013. Statswise he ranks fifth in total driving, ninth in GIR, first in strokes gained tee to green and ninth in approaches from 175-200. He also ranks 25th in approaches from 275, 18th in scrambling, second in par 4 scoring and 18th in par 5 scoring. Matsuyama is showing some superb consistency this season and I expect that to continue in Whistling Straits.

 

Zach Johnson 55/1 USPGA Championship 2015 Whistling Straits

Zach Johnson 55/1

Zach Johnson has been playing superb golf over the last few weeks with four top 10’s in his last six starts. After a brilliant win at St Andrews beating Louis Oosthuizen and Marc Leishman in a playoff, Johnson also finished T3 at The John Deere Classic the week before, solo sixth at The Travelers and solo fifth at The Byron Nelson. His best finish at a USPGA came here at Whistling Straits in 2010 finishing third and the next best coming at Oak Hill in 2013, where he finished T8. He also played here in 2004 and finished in a respectable T37, but comes here in much better form this time around.

Statswise, Johnson ranks third in driving accuracy, 34th in GIR, 13th in strokes gained tee to green, 21st in approaches from 175-200 yards and 18th in approaches from 150-175. He also ranks 28th in par 3 scoring, seventh in par 4 scoring and 18th in par 5 scoring. With a great record here and great current form, Zach Johnson could be a big danger here.

 

Branden Grace 80/1 USPGA Championship 2015

Branden Grace 80/1

With Whistling Straits being a linksy setup, this course could be a place where Branden Grace could flourish. He has five top 20’s in his last seven starts and comes here on the back of a respectable T17 at The WGC Bridgestone last week. He has played particularly well in the majors finishing T4 in Chambers Bay and T20 at The Open Championship. His good run of form began back at The RBC Heritage, where he finished T7 and followed that with a T9 at The WGC Matchplay.

Statswise Grace ranks 22nd in driving distance, 26th in strokes gained putting, 22nd in approaches from 175-200 yards and 22nd in scrambling. The South African has had a great year so far and I expect that to continue here at Whistling Straits this week on a course that could really suit his game.

 

Final Selections –

Jason Day 14/1 2pts EW

Adam Scott 25/1 1.5 pts EW

Louis Oosthuizen 35/1 1pt EW

Hideki Matsuyama 40/1 1 pt EW

Zach Johnson 55/1 1 pt EW

Branden Grace 80/1 1 pt EW

Total staked = 15 pts

 

Good luck and enjoy the golf,

Doublebogey6