Sony Open Betting Preview 2018

Sony Open Betting Preview 2018Waialae Country Club, Honalulu, Hawaii    

Par 70, 7,044 yards   

The Course   

Its good to be back. After watching DJ romp to victory last week it looks like we could  have another entertaining year ahead!

The PGA Tour stays in Hawaii and travels to Waialae Country Club, which is located east of Honolulu for the 2018 Sony Open. Last year Justin Thomas dominated this event winning by an impressive seven shots from his nearest challenger Justin Rose. He shot a record 59 in round one and followed that with an impressive second round 64. He finished with a couple of 65’s to post 27 under par in total.   

Waialae is a par 70 measuring 7,044 yards and sits on Maunalua Bay, which can be prone to windy conditions. It has 12 par 4’s, four par 3’s and just two par 5’s which measure 499 and 521 yards and should be reachable in two by most of the field. This course is different from Kapalua with Waialae being a lot tighter and flatter with smaller trickier greens. The fairways are narrow and tree lined which will favour the more accurate players. The greens here are much smaller compared to the generously sized greens last week at the Plantation Course.  

Although these fairways are a tighter, there are also a lot of fairway bunkers to contend with so driving accuracy will be important this week. The tiny greens are Bermuda grass and are guarded by hazards so look out for good GIR stats, good scramblers and good Bermuda putters with an emphasis on strokes gained tee to green.    

 

Brian Harman 20/1 Sony Open Betting Preview 2018Brian Harman 20/1  

The steady and accurate Brian Harman looks to be in the form of his life with four top 10’s in his last four starts. He had a great start to the season finishing T5 at the CJ Cup and followed that with an impressive solo eighth at the WGC-HSBC Champions, which included a 68 and 69 in the first two rounds.  

Harman then travelled to Sea Island for the RSM Classic where he shot four rounds in the 60’s to finish on T4 on 14 under par in total. He started 2018 off in style with another solid performance last week in Kapalua shooting three rounds in the 60’s on his way to a solo third, where he led the GIR stats last week. In his last eight competitive rounds Harman has shot a 69 or better seven times so he is showing a lot of consistency.  

He has played well around Waialae in the past finishing 20,13,13 in his last three starts. Harman looks to be a good fit for this course ranking 11th in driving accuracy, fourth in GIR, 22nd in SGTTG and 11th in SG Putting. With a decent record here and excellent current form Harman looks worth backing here this week.  

 

Kevin Kisner 22/1 Sony Open Betting Preview 2018Kevin Kisner 22/1  

There seems to be a lot of players teeing it up this week that have a chance to win and I think Kevin Kisner is certainly one of them. He has been on top of his game lately and hasn’t been outside the top 20 in his last four competitive starts. The American finished the 2016/2017 season off in style with an impressive T3 at the Tour Championship in East Lake which included two opening 68’s and a 64 in round three. Kisner followed that with a T4 at the RSM Classic, T12 at the Hero World Challenge and a respectable T17 last week at The Sentry Tournament of Champions in Kapalua.  

He is another player with a decent record here over the last few years finishing T4 last year which included a third round 60, and a T5 in 2016 which included an opening round 63. Kisner tends to play well on seaside setup’s and putts well on Bermuda greens. He led the SGP stats last week at the Plantation Course which is a big plus coming to Waialae this week.   

 

Zach Johnson 33/`Sony Open Betting Preview 2018Zach Johnson 33/1  

Zach is showing some good early season form and hasn’t finished worse that T23 in his last three starts. He played well at the Safeway Open finishing a respectable T13 and followed that with a T23 at the OHL Classic. Johnson then travelled to Sea Island for the RSM Classic where he shot 64,67 over the weekend to finish T8 on 13 under par for the tournament so his current form looks decent.   

Zach has a great record here and really seems to have the game to fit this course. He won here back in 2009 and followed that with a T12 in 2010. Most recently he has three top 10’s in his last four appearances finishing T6 last year, T9 in 2016 and T8 in 2014. He is no stranger to windy seaside courses winning at venues such as St Andrews in 2015, Hyundai TOC in Kapalua in 2014 and the RBC Heritage in Harbour Town in 2012.   

 

Top 20 double – Charles Howell (Sony)/Jason Scrivener (SA Open) @10/1  

Charles Howell has a ridiculously good record here in Waialae with eight top 20’s (including seven top 10’s) in his last 12 appearances here. He has three top 20’s in his last four starts so far this season and looks to be in decent form and well worth backing.  

Aussie Jason Scrivener has a good record at Glendower finishing T12 in 2016 and T11 in 2015. He won the NSW Open back in November by six strokes and top 20’d in both the Aussie PGA and Australian Open before Christmas. Looks to be playing well and looks a good bet in the outright market at 50/1 too.   

 

Final Selections –  

Brian Harman 1pt EW 20/1  

Kevin Kisner 1pt EW 22/1  

Zach Johnson 1pt EW 33/1  

Top 20 Double 1pt 10/1  

Total staked = 7 pts  

Paddypower paying 7 places.

 

Good luck and enjoy the golf and Happy New Year!

Doublebogey6

 

John Deere Classic Betting Preview 2016

John Deere Classic 2016 Betting Preview TPC Deere Run, Silvis, Illinois

7,268 yards, par 71

Over the years some big names have dominated this event with Jordan Spieth, Steve Stricker and Zach Johnson all winning here in Illinois. TPC Deere Run is a 7,268 yard par 71 and has three par 5’s, four par 3’s and 11 par 4’s with the average winning score being roughly 18 under par.

With the three par 5’s all reachable in two and the fairly easy par 4’s, there will be a lot of birdies on offer, which explains the extremely low scoring over the years. The course sits along rolling woodlands alongside a rock river and has some small ponds and ravines. It also has rolling fairways that are quite generous off the tee so driving accuracy won’t be hugely important. Of the top 10 finishers last year, eight of them ranked inside the top 15 in GIR, six were inside the top 20 in strokes gained putting and eight were in the top 20 in scrambling. When Jordan Spieth won last year he putted superbly well all week and ranked seventh in strokes gained putting. With previous winners being Zach Johnson, Steve Stricker and Jordan Spieth it would appear that good putters seem to excel around TPC Deere Run.

The course has undergone elevation changes on several holes. The 14th is a downhill par 4 measuring just 358 yards and can be driveable in the right conditions. There is also water present on five holes, but shouldn’t pose too much of a problem for the players. This course is relatively easy but will demand good putting and accurate approach shots in order to make birdies. The key stats to look at here are par 4 scoring, strokes gained putting, GIR, previous form and current form.

 

Zach Johnson 6/1 John Deere Classic Betting Preview 2016Zach Johnson 6/1

It’s hard to see past Zach Johnson here especially in this particularly weakened field. His record around TPC Deere Run is ridiculously good with a win in 2012, second in 2009, third in 2011, second in 2013, second in 2014 and a third here last year. Johnson is also playing well lately with four top 20’s in his last six starts. He finished T17 in Colonial recently and followed that with a T8 at The US Open, T10 at The WGC Bridgestone and a T12 at The Open Championship in Troon.

Statswise he ranks 38th in strokes gained putting, 34th in scrambling and 24th in par 3 scoring. With a lot of key players either at The Olympics or taking the week off, Zach is a worthy favourite here and should be the man to beat.

 

Daniel Summerhays 22/1 John Deere Classic Betting Preview 2016Daniel Summerhays 22/1

Summerhays has been in fine form lately with seven top 25’s in 11 starts. He played well at The Valero Texas Open at the end of April finishing T13 and followed that with a T14 at The Wells Fargo, T23 at The Players, T8 at The US Open in Oakmont, T21 at The Quicken Loans, solo third at The PGA and a T11 last week at The Travelers.

He has a good record here at TPC Deere Run finishing T8 last year, T13 in 2014 and T4 in 2013. Statswise he ranks eighth in strokes gained putting and 31st in par 5 scoring. With excellent current form and a good record here Summerhays could have a good week here.

 

Gary Woodland 28/1 John Deere Classic Betting Preview 2016Gary Woodland 28/1

Big hitting Gary has been playing well over the last few months with eight top 30’s in 11 starts. He had a good week in New Orleans finishing T20 and followed that with a T24 at The Wells Fargo, T28 at The Players, T12 at The Byron Nelson, T4 at Memorial, T21 at The Quicken Loans, solo second at The Barracuda and a T12 at The Open in Troon.

He has only played this event twice with his best finish coming in 2010 with a T21. Statswise he ranks 15th in strokes gained tee to green, fifth in driving distance, 27th in GIR and 31st in par 4 scoring. With a weakened field Woodland could take full advantage here and be right in contention come Sunday.

 

Robert Streb 33/1 John Deere Classic Betting Preview 2016Robert Streb 33/1

I’ve been keeping one eye on Streb over the last few weeks as he seems to be coming back to some good form. He had a respectable T28 at The Wells Fargo and followed that with a T20 at Memorial, T21 at The Quicken Loans and a T7 at The PGA Championship which included a third round 63.

He has played well here in the past finishing T14 last year and didn’t shoot worse than a 70 in four rounds. He also finished T22 in 2013 which included three rounds in the 60’s. Streb tends to play well this time of year and could keep his good form going this week at TPC Deere Run.

 

Steve Wheatcroft 80/1

The American has had a pretty unflattering season so far but has played exceptionally well in the last four weeks. He had a great week at The Barracuda Championship finishing T5 and followed that with a T20 at The Barbasol and didn’t shoot worse than a 69 throughout the tournament. He then had another great performance at The RBC Canadian Open shooting 68,77,64,69 on his way to another T5. If it weren’t for that slight blemish in the second round in Canada it could’ve been a different story for Wheatcroft.

His best finish at TPC Deere Run came here last year when he finished T8 and didn’t shoot worse than a 70 through four rounds to finish 16 under par in total. If he keeps that momentum going into this week he could be a big contender at a decent price.

 

Final Selections – 

Zach Johnson 2pts EW 6/1 

Daniel Summerhays 1pt EW 22/1 

Gary Woodland 1pt EW 28/1 

Robert Streb 1pt EW 33/1 

Steve Wheatcroft 1pt EW 80/1 

Total Staked = 12pts 

PaddyPower paying 7 places 

 

Good luck and enjoy the golf,

 

Doublebogey6

 

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US PGA Championship Betting Preview 2016

PGA Championship Betting Preview 2014Baltusrol Golf Club, Lower Course, Springfield, New Jersey

7,428 yards par 70

The Course

The Baltusrol Golf Club is a private 36-hole golf club in Springfield, New Jersey located about 30 km west of New York City. It was founded 121 years ago in 1895 by Louis Keller and was named after Baltus Roll, who farmed the land on which the club resides today.

In 1985, Baltusrol became the first club to have hosted both the U.S. Open and Women’s U.S. Open on two different courses. Both courses were originally designed by A. W. Tillinghast in 1918. The club’s original 9-hole course was designed by George Hunter in 1895, and expanded to 18 holes in 1898.  The first national championship on the Upper Course was the U.S. Open in 1936. Among the many major tournaments it has hosted, the club was most recently the site of the 2005 PGA Championship.

In 1948, Robert Trent Jones was retained to update and lengthen the Lower course for tournament play. The Lower course was lengthened again by his son Rees Jones in 1992 in preparation for the U.S. Open in 1993. He also updated and lengthened the Upper course in advance of the 2000 U.S. Amateur.

The course is spread out over rolling parkland with ponds and other man-made and natural hazards that come into play. It has four par 3’s, 12 par 4’s and only two par 5’s. The 4th hole and the 18th hole have ponds which will add a slight intimidation factor for the players. The three signature holes of the are the fourth, a par three of 194 yards where players must hit their ball over the pond to a two-tiered green; the seventeenth, a par five of 650 yards and the eighteenth, a par five of 533 yards which will be reachable in two for most of the field. The pond on the left hand side of the eighteenth has been made bigger since 2005 and could be a bit intimidating for the players with a draw or a fade for the leftys. Six of the par 4’s measure over 450 yards with the longest being the 505 yard 7th. The longest of the par 3’s is the 16th which measures a lengthy 230 yards.

This course is a tricky and lengthy par 70 with average size fairways. The rough looks like its going to be particularly penal so keeping it in the fairway will be advantageous. There will also be some tricky fairway bunkers to contend with so driving accuracy looks to be important. The greens are quite small and sloppy so GIR will be one stat to pay particular attention to here along with good putting.

Phil Mickelson won here back in 2005 on a score of four under par. Other previous winners at Baltusrol include Jack Nicklaus and Lee Janzen.

 

Rory McIlroy 8/1 US PGA Championship 2016 Betting PreviewRory McIlroy 8/1

The more I look at Baltusrol the more I think it could be a great fit for Rory. He fought hard for a T5 finish at Troon and was a bit unlucky with the draw and the weather. Despite that he still shot rounds of 69,71,73,67 to finish four under par in total. Rory has been playing well over the last few weeks with a win and four top 5’s in his last seven events. He had a good week at The Wells Fargo finishing T4 and followed that with a win at The Irish Open, T4 at Memorial, solo third at The French Open and a T5 at The Open.

He has a superb PGA Championship record with two wins which came in Valhalla in 2014 and Kiawah Island in 2012, a third place finish in 2010, T8 in 2013 at Oak Hill and a T17 last year in Whisling Straits. He ranks first in strokes gained off the tee, third in strokes gained tee to green and 13th in driving distance. With a great record at this event and good current form Rory looks a good bet here and the pick of the favs.

 

Henrik Stenson 16/1 USPGA Championship 2016 Betting PreviewHenrik Stenson 16/1

After the heroics of Royal Troon a couple of weeks ago The Swede looks to have his game in superb shape coming to Baltustrol. He broke all sorts of records at The Open and didn’t shoot worse than a 68 all week posting an impressive 20 under par in total. He also had a good week in Scotland finishing in a respectable T13 and recovered well after opening with a 76. Stenson has six top 25’s in his last nine starts and seems to be in the best form of his life. He played well in Houston finishing solo second and followed that with a T24 in Augusta, a T4 at The Nordea Masters, a win at The BMW International Open, a T13 in Castle Stuart and a win in Troon.

Statswise he ranks first in driving accuracy, second in GIR and seventh in SGTTG. He has played well in previous USPGA’s finishing 25th last year in Whistling Straits, third in 2014 in Valhalla and third in 2013 at Oak Hill. With Baltusrol demanding accuracy off the tee along with hitting plenty of greens this will be right up Stenson’s street and he could add a second major to his trophy cabinet this week.

 

Phil Mickelson 20/1 USPGA Championship 2016 Betting Preview Phil Mickelson 20/1

After going toe to toe with Stenson in Troon, Mickelson finished three strokes behind The Swede after shooting a superb final round 65 to finish solo second. He played great golf all week opening with an impressive 63 and followed that with a 69,70,65 over the weekend to finish 17 under par in total. Mickelson has been playing well this season with five top 30’s in his last seven starts. He played well at The Wells Fargo finishing T4 and followed that with a T20 in Memorial, T2 at The St Jude, T27 at The Bridgestone and a solo second at The Open.

He has won around Baltusrol in the past winning the 2005 USPGA Championship on four under par. He has a good record over the last few years finishing T12 in 2010 at Whistling Straits, T19 in 2011 in Athletic Club, second in 2014 in Valhalla and T18 last year in Whistling Straits. Statswise Phil ranks 16th in strokes gained tee to green, fourth in SGP, fist in par 3 scoring and 10th in par 5 scoring. With being a previous winner here in Baltusrol, a decent record in USPGA Championships and a superb performance at Troon recently, Phil has to have a good chance here.

 

Zach Johnson 55/1 USPGA Championship 2016Zach Johnson 55/1

Although Johnson isn’t the biggest hitter on Tour he may have the edge here with his accurate driving and great putting. He has been playing well over the last few weeks and hasn’t finished worse than T17 in his last four starts. He had a good week at The Dean and Deluca Invitational finishing T17 and followed that with a T8 at The US Open, T10 at The WGC Bridgestone and a T12 at The Open Championship in Troon which would have been a lot better if it weren’t for a third round 75. He has played well around Baltusrol before finishing T17 here in 2005.

He has decent PGA Championship form finishing third in 2010 at Whistling Straits and eighth in 2013 at Oak Hill. With great current form and a good performance here in ’05 Johnson is another player with a good chance here.

 

JB Holmes 66/1 USPGA Championship 2016J.B. Holmes 66/1

As we all know, J.B. can be a little bit unpredictable but after seeing his rather generous price I thought he was worth a look here. He played well in two of the last three majors finishing T4 in Augusta after a super final round 68, and solo third at The Open after shooting two 69’s over the weekend. He also finished T13 in Texas and T4 at Memorial recently after shooting 67,69 over the weekend so his current form is very good.

He finished T24 in Whistling Straits in 2010 and T24 again in Whistling Straits last year. Statswise he ranks second in driving distance and seventh in strokes gained off the tee which could be a big advantage around here. If he gets the putter rolling he could be one to watch here.

 

Jason Dufner 80/1 USPGA Championship 2016Jason Dufner 80/1

The 2013 Champion has had a decent season so far and seems to be returning to form lately with four top 25’s in his last seven events. He has won already this season shooting 64,65,64,70 to win the CareerBuilder Challenge back in January. He played well at The Byron Nelson finishing T24 and followed that with a T6 in Colonial, T8 at The US Open and T22 at The Open Championship in Troon.

His USPGA record in quite impressive. He finished fifth in 2010 at Whistling Straits, second in 2011, T27 in 2012 in Kiawah and a win in 2013 at Oak Hill. Dufner looks to have the game that could suit this course ranking eighth in GIR, 23rd in strokes gained tee to green and 16th in par 4 scoring. For a guy that’s a good record in this event and is playing well he looks a tad overpriced here.

 

Final selections – 

Rory McIlroy 2pts EW 8/1

Henrik Stenson 1.5pts EW 16/1 

Phil Mickelson 1.5pts EW 20/1 

Zach Johnson 1pt EW 55/1 

J.B. Holmes 1pt EW 66/1

Jason Dufner 1pt EW 80/1 

Total staked = 16 pts 

 

Good luck and enjoy the golf,

Doublebogey6

 

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RBC Heritage Betting Preview 2016

RBC Heritage Betting Preview 2016Hilton Head, South Carolina 

Par 71, 7,101 yards.  

The Course 

This event has been played at Harbour Town Golf Links for many years now and the same players seem to play well here. The course is a short 7,101 yards and has three par 5’s, four par 3’s and 11 par 4’s. It is a tight course with tree lined fairways and small greens, which are ranked among the most difficult to hit on the PGA Tour. History suggests that the good, accurate ball strikers and good putters tend to do well around here. The greens here are quite small by Tour standards so GIR and good scrambling will be two key stats to look at. Hilton Head also tends to be quite windy so be on the lookout for good wind players.

The main stats to consider here are driving accuracy, GIR, par 4 scoring, scrambling and proximity to the hole. Unlike last week in Augusta National, you don’t need to be long on this course so a lot of the shorter more accurate players should come into the mix. Weather forecast is set to be mainly dry with a mix of sunny conditions and some scattered cloud with moderate winds.

 

Zach Johnson 22/1 RBC HeritageZach Johnson 22/1

After shooting an opening round 72 last week in Augusta, Johnson fell right back after a second round 80 and ended up missing the cut. Despite a disappointing second round, last weeks missed cut could be a big positive as he will be fresh coming into this week.

ZJ has been playing well lately and looked superb at the Matchplay. He looked to be hitting his irons beautifully and putted really well all week and got into the final 16 but just fell short losing against McIlroy losing the match one down. He has been going through an equipment change and seems to have settled in with some good performances over the last few weeks. He started the season with a T9 at the Sony and followed that with a T14 in Phoenix which included three rounds in the 60’s finishing seven under for the week. Johnson had another great week in Bay Hill recently at The Arnold Palmer Invitational shooting two 68’s over the weekend to finish solo fifth.

He has played well here in the past finishing sixth in 2007 and second in 2012. This tight track seems to suit his game and statistically he ranks 30th in GIR and 22nd in par 3 scoring. After some solid performances over the last few weeks Johnson looks to be in good form and a big contender here.

 

Brandt Snedeker 18/1 RBC Heritage Brandt Snedeker 18/1 

Snedeker played great golf last week in Augusta and looked to be putting very well on those tricky undulating greens. He eventually finished T10 after a final round 72 and has had a superb season so far which began with a T17 at The Frys and a win at The Franklin Templeton with partner Jason Dufner.

He started 2016 off with a T3 at The Hyundai Tournament of Champions, lost out in a playoff at The Sony in Hawaii and had a superb win in Torrey Pines which included a superb final round 69 in almost unplayable conditions. He had a bit of a dip in form but seems to be back contending over his last two events recording two top 10 in Augusta and The Matchplay.

Sneds has a good record here over the last few years finishing 16th in 2007, a win in 2011, 17th in 2012 and 26th last year. After two good recent performances Snedeker is one to keep on side here.

 

Kevin Kisner 25/1 RBC HeritageKevin Kisner 25/1

The accurate American started the season off with with a win and three top 10’s but has gone off the boil a bit lately. He played well in Augusta last week and shot two 72’s sandwiched between an opening 77 and a third round 76 to finish in a respectable T37. Kisner started the season with a solo second at The WGC HSBC in Shanghai, which included an opening round 64 and followed that with a win at The RSM Classic shooting 64, 64 over the weekend to seal the victory. Kisner then started 2016 off with a solo ninth at the Hyundai Tournament of Champions and a T5 at The Sony, which included an opening round 63.

He was unlucky not to win this event last year and lost to Jim Furyk on the second playoff hole, which would be his first of three playoff losses from last year. He ranks seventh in driving accuracy, 37th in GIR, fifth in par 4 scoring and 25th in par 5 scoring. After a decent performance last week on a course that shouldn’t really suit his game Kisner could be another one to watch here.

 

Paul Casey 18/1 RBC HeritagePaul Casey 18/1 

Casey has been back showing some good form over the last few weeks and comes here on the back of a T4 finish in Augusta last week and a T9 in Bay Hill. His Iron play in particular was superb and if the putter heated up a little bit he wouldn’t have been far away. He also had a good week in Doral finishing solo seventh at The WGC Cadillac which included two 68’s in round two and four.

Casey has played well here in the past finishing 11th in 2009, 22nd in 2010 and 18th in 2014. The Englishman ranks 20th in GIR, 21st in SGTTG and 33rd in par 4 scoring. His form is getting warm and Casey looks to be another player with a solid game for this course.

 

Matt Fitzpatrick RBC Heritage 2016 Matt Fitzpatrick 25/1

The young Englishman played superb over the weekend in Augusta shooting an impressive final round 67 to finish T7 for the week. Matt looked to be hitting a lot of fairways off the tee, hitting alot of green in regulation and lead GIR in the final round on Sunday in Augusta. He has been playing on US soil over the last few weeks finishing T35 in Doral at The WGC Cadillac and T38 at The Matchplay.

He doesn’t hit it a mile but he is known as one of the most accurate players around hitting over 60% of fairways off the tee and ranking 22nd in GIR. Matt finished 23rd here in 2014 and can better that performance after a superb week in Augusta.

 

Final selections –

Zach Johnson 22/1 1.5 pts EW

Brandt Snedeker 18/1 1.5 pts EW

Paul Casey 18/1 1 pt EW

Kevin Kisner 25/1 1pt EW

Matt Fitzpatrick 25/1 1pt EW

Total staked = 12 pts

 

Good luck and enjoy the golf,

Doublebogey6

 

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The Masters Betting Preview 2016

The Masters Betting Preview 2016

Augusta National Golf Club, Augusta, Georgia 

Par 72, 7,435 yards 

 

The Course 

Augusta National is one of the most beautiful, eye catching golf courses on the planet and has seen so much emotion over the years. Augusta National first opened 82 years ago in 1933, and has been modified many times by different architects. It is a long demanding test with very tricky greens and lots of run off areas.

The Masters was started by Clifford Roberts and Bobby Jones. Jones designed Augusta National with course architect  Alistair MacKenzie. The field of players is smaller than those of the other major championships because it is an invitational event, held by the Augusta National Golf Club.

This course measures just under 7,500 yards and will demand a mixture of power and accuracy. There are a few elements to consider at Augusta when compiling a list of players to bet on. The first element is experience. Players that have played well here in the past tend to go well again, even more so if they are showing some good current form. The second element is a hot putter and a good short game. Augusta National’s teeth are its lightning fast greens with its tricky slopes and run off areas.

If a player misses the fairway at here, the key is to land the ball in the right part of the green with a high penetrated ball flight. If a player has a high penetrated ball flight with a draw, or a fade if you’re a lefty, that will be a big advantage. The main reason for this is that many of the holes in Augusta are dog legs so players that can shape the ball should score well.

Greens in regulation is another stat to consider here as the greens are big and slopey so hitting the ball in the right portion of the green will be very important. Approach stats, strokes gained putting, scrambling, par 4 and par 5 scoring are other stats to take into consideration here.

 

Bubba Watson 11/1 Masters Betting Preview 2016

Bubba Watson 11/1

Bubba has two wins already under his belt this season with a win at The Hero World Challenge just before Christmas where he shot four rounds in the 60’s including a third round 63 to finish 25 under for the tournament. He followed that with a T10 at The Hyundai Tournament of Champions and a T14 in Phoenix. He had a great week in Riviera at The Northern Trust Open and didn’t shoot worse than a 68 in his four rounds to finish 15 under for the tournament. He continued that good form in Doral and again shot three rounds in the 60’s finishing 11 under for the week. He has a great record in Augusta with wins in 2014 and 2012.

Bubba ticks a lot of boxes here ranking fourth in driving distance averaging over 310 yards off the tee, which will be a big help here. He also ranks first in GIR and SGTTG. He is one of a few players that can shape the ball in both directions and can cut the corners on some of these tricky doglegs. With great current form and a great record here Bubba looks a huge contender here.

 

Phil Mickelson 20/1 Masters Betting Preview 2016

Phil Mickelson 20/1 

If it wasn’t for the dreaded sixth hole at The Golf Club of Houston last week, Phil would’ve finished a hell of a lot better than T13. He was a whopping six over par on that one hole and finished eight under in total and the winner was 15 under so he wasn’t far away. He comes into this with four top 11 finishes this season starting with a T3 at the CareerBuilder Challenge which included four steady rounds in the 60’s finishing 21 under in total. He followed that with a T11 in Phoenix, solo second in Pebble Beach and a solo fifth at The WGC Cadillac in Doral.

Phil is a veteran of Augusta and is a three time winner winning in 2004,2006 and 2010. He also finished solo second last year, third in 2012, fifth in 08 and 09 and 10th in 05 and comes here this week in much better form than he did last year. Mickelson has been putting particularly well ranking sixth in SGP and ninth in SGTTG. He also ranks sixth in scrambling, first in par 3 scoring and eighth in par 5 scoring. With a solid start to the season and a good performance last week, Phil looks set for a good week on a course he knows so well.

 

Louis Oosthuizen 28/1 Masters Betting Preview 2016

Louis Oosthuizen 33/1

The South African looked superb in The Matchplay beating Jordan Speith, Dustin Johnson and Rafa Cabrera Bello on his way to the final only to be beaten by the unstoppable Jason Day. His form has been superb over the last few weeks with a second place finish last week, a T7 at the Valspar and a T14 at The WGC Cadillac. He has also been in flying form on The European Tour with a win at The Perth International in Australia at the end of February, T12 at The Malaysian Open and a T7 in Qatar. Louis has played superb around Augusta over the last few years finishing second to Bubba Watson in 2012, T25 in 2014 and T19 last year.

He comes here in much better form this time around and is hitting it a long way off the tee averaging over 300 yards and ranks 16th in GIR and 12th in SGTTG. Louis looks in tip top form coming into this and could be another one to watch.

 

Charl Schwartzel 35/1 Masters Betting Preview 2016

Charl Schwartzel 35/1 

The South African has been in fine form lately with two wins and two top 20’s in his last six starts. He finished T9 in The Nedbank Challenge just before Christmas and followed that with a win in The Tshwane Open in his native South Africa shooting an impressive final round 63 to finish 16 under for the tournament. More recently Schwartzel finished in a respectable T17 at The WGC Cadillac and following that with a superb win at The Valspar. He had a good performance last week in Houston shooting a final round 69 to finish T13 for the week.

Schwartzel is another player that has a green jacket already tucked away with a win here in 2011, T30 in 2010 and a T25 in 2013. Charl ticks a lot of boxes statswise averaging just under 300 yards off the tee and ranks 18th in GIR, 10th in SGTTG, 11th in scrambling and 21st in par 4 scoring. Charl’s game looks great coming into this week and he could be a big contender at a decent price.

 

Zach Johnson 60/1 Masters Betting Preview 2016

Zach Johnson 60/1  

I really thought Zach looked superb at the Matchplay. He looked to be hitting his irons beautifully and putted really well all week and got into the final 16 but just fell short losing against McIlroy losing the match one down. He has been going through an equipment change and seems to have settled in with some good performances over the last few weeks. He started the season with a T9 at the Sony and followed that with a T14 in Phoenix which included three rounds in the 60’s finishing seven under for the week. Johnson had another great week in Bay Hill recently at The Arnold Palmer Invitational shooting two 68’s over the weekend to finish solo fifth.

Johnson is no stranger to Augusta winning here in 2007, T20 in 2008 and a T9 last year. He putted superbly well in the Matchplay which will be a big plus here. He ranks 25th in GIR, 21st in proximity to the hole and is incredibly accurate from 50-125 yards. With some good current form and a solid record here Johnson looks a great bet at 60’s

 

Final Selections –

Bubba Watson 11/1 2pts EW

Phil Mickelson 20/1 2pts EW

Louis Oosthuizen 28/1 1pt ew

Charl Schwartzel 35/1 1pt EW

Zach Johnson 60/1 1pt EW

Total Staked = 14 pts

 

Good luck and enjoy the golf,

 

Doublebogey6

 

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Career Builder Challenge Betting Preview 2016

Career Builder Challenge Betting Preview 2016

The Courses:  

La Quinta Country Club – Par 72, 7060 yards and has four par fives in total. It also has tree lined fairways which are not particularly narrow, with some water features that come into play. The greens are Bermuda grass and this course tends to be quite tricky and can play quite fast depending on the weather conditions.

PGA West Stadium Course – Par 72, 7,300 yards and has four par fives and four par 3’s. This course is played twice including the final round and has a lot of trees, streams and lakes that come into play.  The fairways are quite forgiving and shouldn’t be too difficult to hit. There are several bunkers that come into play, some are very deep and will be very challenging. The greens are also Bermuda grass and are also quite large but can also play very fast depending on weather conditions.

PGA West Tournament Course – Par 72, 7,204 yards. This course is being used for the first time this year and has four par 5’s and four par 3’s.The fairways are also very forgiving with large greens with water featuring on around seven holes.

The average score of the winner of this tournament has been around the 25 under mark. Also keep in mind that this is a Pro-Am for the first three rounds so pin positions will be in favourable locations to cater for the amateurs. With this, the pro’s will be taking full advantage so be on the lookout for good birdie average stats and good putters.

With the pro’s playing about 18 par 5’s this week, players with good par 5 scoring stats tend to go well here. Players that have had a good week at The Sony usually bring that momentum into this week as most of the cobwebs are dusted off. Any players that finished in the top 20 last week and have played well here in the past should be worth considering. It’s a tough one to call so approach with caution.

 

Patrick Reed 10/1 Career Builder Challenge 2016

Patrick Reed 10/1

The American comes here in fine form after another top five finish at The Hyundai Tournament of Champions finishing solo second. He also played great golf in Asia before Christmas with four top 10’s in five starts. He had a great week at The Hong Kong Open finishing T3 on 11 under for the tournament. He followed that with a T10 at The CIMB in Malaysia which included another four rounds in the 60’s to finish -17 for the tournament and a solo second finish at The BMW Masters where he lost a playoff to Kristoffer Broberg on the first playoff hole.

Reed had a great week at The Hero World Challenge at the start of December finishing solo second and was also part of the winning American Presidents Cup team in Korea. He had a good end to the season with a T15 at The WGC Bridgestone, T30 at The PGA and a T4 at The Deutsche Bank.

He has played well here in the past finishing T24 last year, a win in 2014 and T22 finish in 2012. If he brings that good form into this week he will be a huge contender and looks like he’s right on the cusp of a win any day now.

 

Zach Johnson 18/1 Career Builder Challenge 2016

Zach Johnson 18/1

Johnson had a good week at The Sony Open finishing with a T9 on 13 under par. He has been playing well over the last few weeks finishing solo 12th at The Hero World Challenge and a T21 at The Hyundai Tournament of Champions. He played well towards the end of the season in the FedExCup playoffs finishing T4 at The Barclays, T22 at The Deutsche Bank, T13 at The BMW and T8 at The Tour Championship.

Johnson has played well at this event in the past finishing third in 2014, T23 in 2012 and T11 in 2012. Statswise he ranks 22nd in GIR, 11th in proximity to the hole and 17th in par 4 scoring. After a good week at The Sony, these courses should suit Johnson as they demand very accurate iron play and good putters in order to make birdies.

 

Bill Haas 28/1 Career Builder Challenge 2016

 

Bill Haas 28/1

Haas was part of the winning Presidents Cup Team in Korea where he won an impressive two and a half points for his team and beat Sang Moon Bae in the final singles match on the Sunday to seal victory for the Americans. He has been playing well recently finishing T5 at The Hero World Challenge and finished T18 at The Hyundai Tournament of Champions on 12 under par for the week.

He has a fantastic record at this event with a win last year, sixth in 2014, second in 2011 and another win in 2010. He leads driving accuracy hitting over 80% of fairways and comes here this week in great form.

 

Jaosn Dufner 35/1 Career Builder Challenge 2016

Jason Dufner 35/1

Dufner comes here showing some solid form over the last few weeks with a win at The Franklin Templeton Shootout with partner Brandt Snedeker, where his iron play and putting looked superb all week. He also had a great week at The RSM Classic finishing T9 on 10 under and followed that with another top 10 finishing T9 at The Sony Open last week on 13 under for the tournament, which included a third round 65.

Despite missing the cut last year, Dufner has played well here in the past finishing T11 in 2012, T33 in 2011 and T18 in 2010. He is hitting just over 75% of greens in reg and ranks 16th in strokes gained tee to green. He also ranks 19th in par 5 scoring which will stand him well this week with an abundance of par 5’s to contend with.

 

Jason Bohn 40/1 Career Builder Challenge 2016

Jason Bohn 40/1

Bohn was showing some superb form before Christmas with two seconds and a third in four starts. He came close to a win at the OHL Classic where he was beaten by Graeme McDowell in a playoff after the Northern Irishman hit a majestic second shot into three feet and rolling it in for a birdie and the win on the first playoff hole. He had a great start to the new season finishing T3 at The Frys, which included a superb third round 64 to finish 14 under par for the tournament. He followed that with a T2 at The Shriners Open in Vegas shooting 68,66,69,68 on his way to a 15 under par total. He started strongly at The Sanderson Farms Championship shooting 67,70,70 in the first three rounds but fell off the pace after shooting a 73 in the final round to finish T39.

Statswise Bohn could suit this course ranking 29th in driving accuracy, 31st in GIR, 12th in strokes gained tee to green and 17th in par 4 scoring. His has played well here before finishing T30 last year, T33 in 2014 and T30 again in 2012. He comes here in much better form this time around and could be one to watch at a decent price.

 

Final Selections –

Patrick Reed 10/1 2pts EW

Zach Johnson 18/1 1pt EW

Bill Haas 28/1 1pt EW

Jason Dufner 35/1 1pt EW

Jason Bohn 40/1 1pt EW

Total Staked = 12 pts

 

Good luck and enjoy the golf,

Doublebogey6

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USPGA Championship 2015 Betting Preview

USPGA Championship 2015 Betting Preview

Whistling Straits, Kohler, Wisconsin

7,790 yards, par 72

The Course

The Straits Course is a Pete Dye designed par 72 and is the flagship course at Whistling Straits. It has 10 par 4’s, four par 5’s and four par 3’s. It is a links style course and replicated the old links courses of the UK and Ireland. It hosted the 2004 PGA Championship won by Vijay Singh in a playoff over Chris DiMarco and Justin Leonard, the 2007 U.S. Senior Open won by Brad Bryant, and the 2010 PGA Championship won by Martin Kaymer in a playoff over Bubba Watson. The course is host the championship for a third time in 2015 and the 2020 Ryder Cup.

Nestled along a two-mile stretch of Lake Michigan, the course has eight holes hugging the lake, elevation changes of approximately 80 feet, and three stone bridges. The stone bridges are located on holes 1,9,10 and 18 with many scattered sand dune areas. It has vast rolling greens, deep pot bunkers, grass-topped dunes and winds that sweep in off the lake. The fairways are natural fescue fairways with bentgrass greens averaging 7,500 square feet. A lot of the greens are guarded by bunkers, over 500 scattered around the course in total, so good scramblers and bunker players will have an advantage.

There will be an element of accuracy needed around this course with a lot of scattered fairway and greenside bunkers so accuracy off the tee will be important. There are 14 water hazards in total with a lot of holes running along the coastline.

The 10 par 4’s will measure roughly 400+ yards long and will demand accurate iron play from between 100-200 yards in order to get the ball close to these pins. Some of the par 5’s could be reachable in two by some of the bigger hitters depending on the wind. The average length of the par 5’s measure around the 600 yard mark, so a lot of players will be laying up with their second shots. The par 3’s will offer a tricky test and measure between 140-220 and will demand accurate iron play to make birdies.

The key areas of focus are par 3,4 and 5 scoring, GIR, strokes gained putting, accurate iron play from 100-200 yards, scrambling, driving distance/accuracy and strokes gained tee to green.

 

Jaosn Day 14/1 USPGA Championship 2015

Jason Day 14/1

The Aussie has been playing super golf so far with two wins already this season. His first win came at The Farmers Insurance Open in Torrey Pines back in February beating J.B. Holmes on the second playoff hole. He also won The RBC Canadian Open recently shooting a superb final round 68 birdieing the last three holes in a row to beat Bubba Watson by one stroke. Day had a good performance last week in Firestone shooting a superb final round 69 to finish T12. He has put together some great performances in the Majors over the last few weeks finishing T9 at The US Open and T4 at The Open Championship in St Andrews. He did come close to winning and had a birdie putt on the 18th to get into the playoff with Johnson, Oosthuizen and Leishman, but it narrowly slid past the hole.

Day has played well here in Whistling Straits in the past finishing T10 in 2010, four strokes behind the winner Martin Kaymer. He has also played well in this tournament in the past finishing T15 last year in Valhalla and T8 in Oak Hill in 2013.

Statswise, Day ranks second in driving distance, 28th in GIR, 27th in strokes gained tee to green and 20th in strokes gained putting. He also ranks fourth in approaches from 200-225, seventh in approaches from 175-200 second in par 4 scoring, fourth in par 3 scoring and 10th in scrambling. Day has proven he can compete at the highest level and it is only a matter of time before he wins his first major and it could be here, where he has played well in the past.

 

Adam Scott 25/1 USPGA Championship 2015

Adam Scott 25/1

Scott has been showing some decent form over the last few weeks with two top 10’s in his last three starts. He played well in Chambers Bay shooting a superb final round 64 to finish T4 at The US Open and followed that with an impressive T10 in St Andrews at The Open Championship. He has played well at the USPGA in the past finishing T15 last year in Valhalla, T5 in Oak Hill in 2013, T11 in 2012 in Kiawah Island and solo 7th in 2011 at The Athletic Club in Georgia. Scott has played this course on both previous USPGA occasions finishing T9 in 2004 and T39 in 2010.

The Aussie seems to tick a lot of boxes here ranking fourth in driving distance, second in GIR, fifth in strokes gained tee to green, 26th in approaches from 150-175 and third in approaches from 100-125. Scott also ranks 22nd in par 4 scoring, 27th in par 5 scoring and 12th in par 4 birdie or better leaders, which is a good stat for scoring on the 12 par 4’s here. With good current form and a solid record around this course, Adam Scott could be a big threat here this week.

 

Louis Oosthuizen 35/1 USPGA Championship 2015

Louis Oosthuizen 35/1

Louis has been playing well recently and looks to have put any injury concerns behind him. He looked superb at The Open and putted extremely well all week, but sadly lost a playoff to in form Zach Johnson and ended up finishing second. Despite shooting a 77 in round one, Oosthuizen also had a superb week at The US Open in Chambers Bay and recovered well shooting rounds of 66,66,67 to get right back in the thick of things and finish T2 on four under for the tournament. Over the last two majors in particular, I think Louis has been particularly impressive with the putter. He has played well at all of the WGC’s, which are all elite fields finishing solo 6th at The WGC Cadillac earlier this year, T14 at the WGC HSBC Champions and T5 at The WGC Matchplay back in March.

Louis has played well in The USPGA in the past finishing in a respectable T15 in Valhalla last year and T21 in Oak Hill in 2013.He also ticks a lot of statistical boxes ranking 32nd in driving distance, 20th in GIR, 29th in strokes gained tee to green and 27th in approaches from 175-200 yards. He also ranks third in approaches from 200-225, sixth in approaches from 200+ and 13th in par 4 scoring. Oosthuizen always plays better on the bigger stages and is a bit overpriced here at 35/1.

 

Hideki Matsuyama 40/1 USPGA Championship 2015

Hideki Matsuyama 40/1

Matsuyama has been showing superb consistency throughout the year with eight top 10 finishes already under his belt. He has finished inside the top 25 in 10 of his 11 events including four top 10’s. His good run of form began back at The Northern Trust Open where he finished T4 and followed that with a T23 at The WGC Cadillac, T21 at The Arnold Palmer solo 5th at The Masters, T9 at The WGC Matchplay and a T17 at The Players. Most recently, he finished T20 at The Wells Fargo, T5 at Memorial, T18 at The US Open and T18 at The Open Championship.

He has played in two previous USPGA Championships finishing T35 in Valhalla last year and T19 in Oak Hill in 2013. Statswise he ranks fifth in total driving, ninth in GIR, first in strokes gained tee to green and ninth in approaches from 175-200. He also ranks 25th in approaches from 275, 18th in scrambling, second in par 4 scoring and 18th in par 5 scoring. Matsuyama is showing some superb consistency this season and I expect that to continue in Whistling Straits.

 

Zach Johnson 55/1 USPGA Championship 2015 Whistling Straits

Zach Johnson 55/1

Zach Johnson has been playing superb golf over the last few weeks with four top 10’s in his last six starts. After a brilliant win at St Andrews beating Louis Oosthuizen and Marc Leishman in a playoff, Johnson also finished T3 at The John Deere Classic the week before, solo sixth at The Travelers and solo fifth at The Byron Nelson. His best finish at a USPGA came here at Whistling Straits in 2010 finishing third and the next best coming at Oak Hill in 2013, where he finished T8. He also played here in 2004 and finished in a respectable T37, but comes here in much better form this time around.

Statswise, Johnson ranks third in driving accuracy, 34th in GIR, 13th in strokes gained tee to green, 21st in approaches from 175-200 yards and 18th in approaches from 150-175. He also ranks 28th in par 3 scoring, seventh in par 4 scoring and 18th in par 5 scoring. With a great record here and great current form, Zach Johnson could be a big danger here.

 

Branden Grace 80/1 USPGA Championship 2015

Branden Grace 80/1

With Whistling Straits being a linksy setup, this course could be a place where Branden Grace could flourish. He has five top 20’s in his last seven starts and comes here on the back of a respectable T17 at The WGC Bridgestone last week. He has played particularly well in the majors finishing T4 in Chambers Bay and T20 at The Open Championship. His good run of form began back at The RBC Heritage, where he finished T7 and followed that with a T9 at The WGC Matchplay.

Statswise Grace ranks 22nd in driving distance, 26th in strokes gained putting, 22nd in approaches from 175-200 yards and 22nd in scrambling. The South African has had a great year so far and I expect that to continue here at Whistling Straits this week on a course that could really suit his game.

 

Final Selections –

Jason Day 14/1 2pts EW

Adam Scott 25/1 1.5 pts EW

Louis Oosthuizen 35/1 1pt EW

Hideki Matsuyama 40/1 1 pt EW

Zach Johnson 55/1 1 pt EW

Branden Grace 80/1 1 pt EW

Total staked = 15 pts

 

Good luck and enjoy the golf,

Doublebogey6

 

 

 

WGC Bridgestone Invitational Betting Preview 2015

WGC Bridgestone Invitational 2015 Betting Preview and Tips

Firestone Country Club (South Course), Akron, Ohio

Par 70, 7,400 yards

The Course

Firestone is a bit of a beast measuring a whopping 7,400 yards and has only two par 5’s, one of which is the 16th, which is the longest par five on the PGA Tour and will not be reachable in two for most of the field. It also has four par 3’s and 12 par 4’s. Seven of the 12 par 4’s measure over 460 yards so length will be a big advantage here. Three of the four par 3’s will measure over 200 yards so be on the lookout for guys that are good long iron players.

There is also an element of accuracy needed off the tee as some of the fairways are tree lined and have plenty of bunkers but overall, they are pretty forgiving. Accurate iron play will be a big advantage when approaching these tricky bentgrass greens.

The key stats here are GIR, total driving, strokes gained putting, par 4 scoring, previous course experience and good current form. Other stats worth looking at here are approaches from 150-200 yards as a lot of the par 3’s and par 4’s will demand accurate iron play from that distance.

 

Adam Scott 16/1 WGC Bridgestone Invitational 2015 Betting Preview and Tips

Adam Scott 16/1

Scott has been showing some decent form over the last few weeks with two top 10’s in his last two starts. He played well in Chambers Bay shooting a superb final round 64 to finish T4 at The US Open and followed that with an impressive T10 in St Andrews at The Open Championship. He has played well at the other WGC events earlier in the year finishing T12 at The WGC HSBC Champions and T4 at The WGC Cadillac. Scott has a great record here at Firestone finishing T8 last year, T14 in 2013, Win in 2011 and a T9 in 2010.

The Aussie seems to tick a lot of boxes here ranking fourth in driving distance, second in GIR, fifth in strokes gained tee to green and third in approaches from 100-125. Scott also ranks 22nd in par 4 scoring, 27th in par 5 scoring and 12th in par 4 birdie or better leaders, which is a good stat for scoring on the 12 par 4’s here. With good current form and a solid record around this course, Adam Scott could be a big threat here this week.

 

Louis Oosthuizen 25/1 WGC Bridgestone Invitational 2015 Betting Preview and Tips

Louis Oosthuizen 25/1

Louis has been playing well recently and looks to have put any injury concerns behind him. He looked superb at The Open and putted extremely well all week, but sadly lost a playoff to in form Zach Johnson and ended up finishing P2. Despite shooting a 77 in round one, Oosthuizen also had a superb week at The US Open in Chambers Bay and recovered well shooting rounds of 66,66,67 to get right back in the thick of things and finish T2 on four under for the tournament. He has played well at The other WGC’s earlier in the year finishing solo 6th at The WGC Cadillac, T14 at the WGC HSBC Champions and T5 at The WGC Matchplay.

Louis has played well here in the past finishing T4 in 2012 and T9 in 2010. He also ticks a lot of statistical boxes ranking 32nd in driving distance, 20th in GIR, 29th in strokes gained tee to green and 27th in approaches from 175-200 yards. He also ranks third in approaches from 200-225, sixth in approaches from 200+ and 13th in par 4 scoring. Oosthuizen seems to play better on the bigger stages and looks to be right on the cusp of a win any day now given his current form.

 

Zach Johnson 40/1 WGC Bridgestone Invitational 2015 Betting Preview and Tips Firestone Country Club

Zach Johnson 40/1

Zach Johnson has been playing superb golf over the last few weeks with four top 10’s in his last five starts. After a brilliant win at St Andrews beating Louis Oosthuizen and Marc Leishman in a playoff, Johnson also finished T3 at The John Deere Classic the week before, solo sixth at The Travelers and solo fifth at The Byron Nelson. He has also played well here in the past finishing T23 last year, T4 in 2013 and T6 in 2011.

Statswise, Johnson ranks third in driving accuracy, 34th in GIR, 13th in strokes gained tee to green and 21st in approaches from 175-200 yards. He also ranks 28th in par 3 scoring, seventh in par 4 scoring and 18th in par 5 scoring. All in all, Zach Johnson is in superb format present and should be able to keep that going this week at Firestone.

 

Jim Furyk 40/1 WGC Bridgestone Invitational 2015 Betting Preview and Tips Firestone Country Club, Ohio

Jim Furyk 40/1

Furyk come here this week with two top 5’s in his last four starts. He played well at The RBC Canadian Open recently shooting 68,69,68,69 on his way to solo fourth and a 14 under par total and showed some great consistency. He also had a good week at The Memorial finishing T5 on twelve under for the week. He also played well at the other WGC events finishing T12 at The WGC Cadillac and fourth in The Matchplay. Furyk has a great record around Firestone finishing T15 last year, ninth in 2013, second in 2012 and sixth in 2010.

Statswise he ranks 11th in driving accuracy, 24th in GIR, seventh in strokes gained tee to green, 12th in approaches from 200-225 and second in approaches from 250-275. He also ranks eighth in approaches from 175-200 and 22nd in par 4 scoring. With such a good record here over the years and great current form, Jim Furyk looks a great shout here at a decent price.

 

Final Selections –

Adam Scott 16/1 2pts EW

Louis Oosthuizen 25/1 2pts EW

Zach Johnson 40/1 1pt EW

Jim Furyk 40/1 1pt EW

Total staked = 12 pts

 

Good luck and enjoy the golf,

 

Doublebogey6

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John Deere Classic Betting Preview 2015

John Deere Classic Betting Preview 2015

TPC Deere Run, Silvis, Illinois

7,268 yards, par 71

Over the years, some big names have dominated this event namely the in form Jordan Spieth, Steve Stricker and Zach Johnson. TPC Deere Run is a 7,268 yard par 71 and has three par 5’s, four par 3’s and 11 par 4’s with the average winning score being roughly 18 under par. With the three par 5’s all reachable in two and the fairly easy par 4’s, there will be a lot of birdies on offer, which explains the extremely low scoring over the years. The course sits along rolling woodlands alongside a rock river and has some small ponds and ravines.  It also has rolling fairways that are quite generous off the tee so driving accuracy won’t be hugely important.

The course has undergone elevation changes on several holes. The 14th is a downhill par 4 measuring just 358 yards and can be drivable in the right conditions. There is also water present on five holes, but shouldn’t pose too much of a problem for the players. This course is relatively easy but will demand good putting and accurate approach shots in order to make birdies. The key stats to look at here are approaches from 125-150, par 4 scoring, strokes gained putting, GIR, previous history and current form.

 

Zach Johnson John Deere Classic 9/1

Zach Johnson 9/1

There is no other player in the field with a better record at TPC Deere Run than Zach Johnson. He has a win here in 2012, second last year, second in 2013, third in 2011 and second again in 2009. He has been showing some great form recently finishing solo sixth at The Travelers, solo fifth at the Byron Nelson, T19 in Colonial and T13 at The Players Championship in Sawgrass.

Johnson also ticks a lot of boxes statistically ranking ninth in driving accuracy, 16th in strokes gained tee to green, 10th in approaches from 50-125 yards and 17th in approaches from 150-175, which are two good stats for approaches into the par 4’s. He also ranks 35th in par 4 scoring and 34th in par 5 scoring. With great current form and a great history here, Johnson is playing well enough to record his second win here at TPC Deere Run this week.

 

Kevin Kisner 16/1 John Deere Classic

Kevin Kisner 16/1

We came close to landing Kisner at 30/1 last week at The Greenbrier, where he sadly lost in a playoff to David Hearn and Danny Lee. Despite that, he played very well in the final round shooting a superb final round 64. That sadly makes him 0/3 in playoffs this season, however a win doesn’t look to far away and it could very well come this week at TPC Deere Run, where he finished in a respectable T20 last year.

Kisner has a further five top 12’s in his last seven starts and lost two playoffs against, the first of which came at The RBC Heritage losing to Jim Furyk and second was at The Players Championship losing to Rickie Fowler. He followed that with a T5 at The Crowne Plaza Invitational in Colonial, which included three 67’s and a 69. He then finished T8 at The Memorial and followed that with a T12 at The US Open in Chambers Bay.

Staswise he ranks 18th in driving accuracy, 40th in strokes gained tee to green and 14th in approaches from 225-250, which is a good stat for approaches into the par 5’s. He also ranks 10th in scrambling, 24th in par 3 scoring, 22nd in par 4 scoring and 27th in par 5 scoring. With great current form and missing out on three playoffs recently, this could be the week Kisner gets his long awaited win.

 

Brian Harman 33/1 John Deere Classic

Brian Harman 33/1

The 2014 champion comes here in good form this week after playing well recently at The Travelers finishing solo third and was unlucky not to win. He was very steady throughout the week shooting rounds of 66,65,65,69 to finish 15 under for the tournament. Harman also played well at The Crowne Plaza Invitational recently shooting rounds of 68,66,69,68 to finish T10 on nine under for the week.

He also played well at The Players finishing T8. He has played well here in the past with a win here last year and a T19 finish in 2012. Harman ranks 49th in strokes gained putting and ninth in approaches from 250 yards, which is a good stat for approaches into the par 5’s. With good previous performances here and decent current form, Brian Harman is great value here at 33/1.

 

Tony Finau 33/1 John Deere Classic

Tony Finau 33/1

Finau has easily been one of the most consistent players on tour over the last few weeks and looks to be right on the cusp of a win any day now. He put together another steady week at The Greenbrier last week finishing T13 on ten under par for the tournament. Finau also had another respectable performance at The Travelers, where he finished T25. He has been very consistent finishing inside the top 25 in seven of his last eight starts. He played well at Chambers Bay finishing T14, T8 at Memorial, T10 at The Byron Nelson, T19 at Colonial and T16 at The Wells Fargo in Quail Hollow.

He ranks seventh in driving distance,33rd in strokes gained tee to green, eighth in approaches from 150-175, 32nd in approaches from 75-100 and 35th in par 4 scoring. He also ranks 43rd in par 5 scoring and 47th in par 3 scoring. Finau is on a great run of form and I don’t see any reason why that shouldn’t continue here this week.

Final Selections –

Zach Johnson 9/1 2pts EW

Kevin Kisner 16/1 2pts EW

Brian Harman 33/1 1pt EW

Tony Finau 33/1 1pt EW

Total staked = 12 pts

 

Good luck and enjoy the golf,

Doublebogey6

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Crowne Plaza Invitational Betting Preview 2015

Crowne Plaza Invitational Betting Preview 2015

Colonial Country Club, Fort Worth, Texas 

7,204 Yards Par 70

The Course

Colonial Country Club is a tight tree-lined course measuring a short 7,204 yards. It was designed by Perry Maxwell and John Bredemus and has very tight fairways and doglegs throughout the course. The PGA Tour has visited this course every year since 1946 making Colonial the oldest annual stop on tour. Ben Hogan won the first two editions of this event and went on to win it five times in total.

This course suits players that can keep the ball straight and favours good, accurate ball striking and demands good positioning off the tee. This course has just two par 5’s and four par 3’s and requires players to shape the ball. It has always been a shot maker’s course with previous winners such as Zach Johnson, Phil Mickelson, Steve Stricker and Boo Weekly over the last few years.

Some of the greens are quite small so GIR, good putting and approach stats will be worth looking at.  This course has over 80 bunkers and has 12 par 4’s, so good par 4 scoring and scrambling stats will have to be considered. Previous form at this event is important so be on the lookout for experienced players with good history here showing some good current form.

 

Zach Johnson Crowne Plaza Invitational 16/1

Zach Johnson 16/1

It’s impossible to leave out Zach Johnson this week given his form here over the years. In his last five appearances, Johnson has two wins, which came in 2013 and 2011. He also finished T3 last year, T4 in 2012 and T9 in 2010. He has also shown some good current form with five top 20’s in his last six starts. He played well at The API in Bay Hill finishing T9, followed that with a T20 at The Texas Open, T9 at The Masters, T17 at The WGC Matchplay and a T13 at The Players.

Statswise, Johnson is another player that suits this course ranking 21st in driving accuracy, 19th in strokes gained tee to green, 15th in approaches from 50-125 yards and 20th in approaches from 150-175, which are good stats for approaches into the par 4’s. He also ranks 29th in par 4 scoring and 28th in par 5 scoring. With such a good record here and decent current form, Johnson could be a big danger here this week.

 

Jimmy Walker 20/1 Crowne Plaza Invitational 2015

Jimmy Walker 20/1

After his victory at The Valero Texas Open back in March, Jimmy Walker is another danger man here this week. He played well here last year shooting a 67 in round one and followed that with a steady 68,69,70 to finish T10 for the tournament. He has had a superb season so far with two wins and two top 10’s in his last 10 starts, missing only one cut. He was beaten in a playoff against Patrick Reed at The Hynudai TOC and followed that with a win at The Sony and a T7 at Torrey Pines.

Since winning at the end of March, Walker has gone a little bit quiet with an MC at The Players, a respectable T38 in Augusta and a T52 at The WGC Matchplay and could rediscover some form here. Walker seems to fit the bill statswise ranking 16th in driving distance, 40th in GIR, 17th in strokes gained tee to green and second in birdie average. He also ranks seventh in approaches from 125-150, 30th in par 3 scoring, 19th in par 4 scoring and seventh in par 5 scoring. After a good performance last year and playing on home turf, Walker could be another one to watch.

 

Kevin Na 28/1 Crowne Plaza Invitational 2015

Kevin Na 28/1

Na has been putting together some decent performances with six top 20 finishes in his last seven starts. His good form began back at The WGC Cadillac in Doral where he finished T9. He followed that with a T10 at The Valspar, T6 at The API in Bay Hill, T20 at The Texas Open and a T12 at The Masters. Most recently, he had a good week at Sawgrass finishing T6 on nine under par for the tournament.

He has played well here at Colonial in the past finishing T13 in 2013, T22 in 2011, T9 in 2010 and T7 in 2008. Statswise this course should suit Na, who ranks 26th in strokes gained tee to green, 22nd in approaches from 100-125 and 18th in scrambling. He also ranks 14th in par 3 scoring and 19th in par 4 scoring.

 

Ryan Palmer 28/1 Crowne Plaza Invitational 2015

Ryan Palmer 28/1                 

Palmer has played well in this event over the last three years finishing with three top 15’s in a row. He played well here last year finishing T5, finished T14 in 2013 and T5 again in 2012. He has shown great form in his home state finishing T6 at The Valero Texas Open back at the end of March. He has also shown good form throughout the season finishing T2 at The Phoenix Open, T10 at The Humana and a T12 at The WGC Cadillac.

Staswise Palmer ranks 13th in driving distance, 36th in GIR, 11th in strokes gained tee to green and second in approaches from 100 yards. He also ranks 30th in par 3 scoring, 41st in par 4 scoring and 28th in par 5 scoring. With a good history at this course and good early season form, Palmer could go well with this week in front of a home crowd.

 

Kevin Kisner 33/1 Crowne Plaza Invitational 2015

Kevin Kisner 33/1

Kisner played here last year and missed the cut, but comes here this week showing much better form this time around. He had a great week a couple of weeks ago at The RBC Heritage shooting a superb final round 64 to get himself into a playoff with Jim Furyk. He was beaten with a birdie on the the second playoff hole, but put in a great performance from start to finish. He followed that with another playoff loss to Rickie Fowler in Sawgrass also losing on the second playoff hole.

Colonial will demand accuracy off the tee and with approaches, which could be right up his street. He ranks 38th in driving accuracy, 11th in approaches from 225-250, 23rd in scrambling, 41st in par 4 scoring and 35th in par 5 scoring. Given these fairways are tight and demand accuracy off the tee and two playoff losses over the last few weeks, it’s only a matter of time before Kisner gets it over the line.

 

Final Selections –

Zach Johnson 2pts EW 16/1

Jimmy Walker 2pts EW 20/1

Kevin Na 1pt EW 28/1

Ryan Palmer 1pt EW 28/1

Kevin Kisner 1pt EW 33/1

Total staked = 14 pts

 

Good Luck and enjoy the golf,

                       

Doublebogey6

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