The Greenbrier Classic Betting Preview 2015

The Greenbrier Classic Betting Preview 2015

The Old White TPC, White Sulphur Springs, West Virginia

7,287 yards par 70

Last Week –

Well it was another super week for us last week at The Travelers tipping Bubba Watson at 11/1 making him our 11th winner of the season. He was a bit up and down over the weekend but managed to stay in the hunt and came into the final round one shot behind overnight leader Brain Harman. The turning point of the round came at the par 5 13th, where he hit a superb second shot out of the fairway bunker and rolled in the putt for an eagle to take a two shot lead. Meanwhile, Paul Casey was firing his approach shots close to the pins the all day and even holed out a wedge from the fairway for an eagle two on the par 4 3rd to get himself right into contention. With Bubba bogeying the 17th, Casey found himself tied for the lead and ended up losing to Watson in a two hole playoff after he bladed a sand wedge out of the bunker on 18. Bubba made the birdie putt and won in style.

It’s been a great year for us so far with 11 winners and 17 places in 30 PGA Tour events. Let’s keep it going in our The Greenbrier Classic Betting Preview 2015 this week! For a full list of our P&L this season, please click here

 

The Course

The Old White TPC is a par 70 measuring 7,287 yards. It has two par 5’s, four par 3’s and 12 par 4’s. The fairways are tree lined with water hazards featuring on a lot of holes throughout the course.

The course was taken apart by Stuart Appleby in 2010 when he shot a record breaking 59 to beat Jeff Overton by one stroke to win the tournament on 22 under par. The course was then made a little more difficult to make scoring a little more challenging after 2010. It was then lengthened by about 250 yards and all of the greens were reconstructed making them a little smaller, undulating and reseeded with bentgrass. Because the greens play smaller than the usual standard, players that rank well in putting between 10-15 feet are worth looking at.

The changes to the course were evident in 2011 as the course played noticeably harder than the previous year. Scott Stallings won the tournament on 10 under par, a huge 12 strokes less than Appleby in 2010.

On this course, driving accuracy isn’t massively important as these fairways are quite forgiving, but distance is a factor as the two par 5’s will require two solid shots to make the green in two. With 12 par 4’s to contend with, par 4 scoring will also be worth looking at along with good approach stats and birdie average. Good previous course form, good current from and good putting are all stats that are also worth checking this week. This tournament is a tough one to call and could be a good place for an in form player to bag his first win.

 

Webb Simpson 22/1 Greenbrier Classic 2015

Webb Simpson 22/1

Webb Simpson comes here showing a mixed bag of form over the last few weeks with only one top 10 finish in his last eight events. He had a great performance at The Wells Fargo in Quail Hollow finishing T2. He started the week very well shooting two 67’s and followed that with a 68 on Saturday and a disappointing final round 72 on Sunday. The putter never really heated up on Sunday but he did play quite solid and showed some great consistency all week. Simpson started the season well with a T4 at The Shriners, T7 at The Humana and a T7 in Doral.

He is a real horse for the course here with three top 10’s in his last four appearances. He finished third here last year, seventh in 2012 and ninth in 2011. Statswise he ranks eighth in strokes gained tee to green, 38th in both GIR and driving accuracy and ninth in par 3 scoring. His approach stats are excellent ranking seventh in approaches from 150-175, 15th in approaches from 200 and 16th in approaches from 200-225. With a great record here and a good finish recently at Quail Hollow, Simpson could be a big contender here this week.

 

Bill Haas 28/1 Greenbrier Classic 2015

Bill Haas 28/1

Despite missing the cut at Chambers Bay, Bill Haas has been showing some solid form this season. He has a win already under his belt, which came at the Humana Challenge back in January. He also has top 10’ at The WGC Cadillac in Doral finishing T7 and T4 at The Players. He played well recently at The Memorial shooting a final round 69 to finish in a respectable T18 in seven under for the tournament. Haas is another player that is a horse for the course finishing T23 last year, ninth in 2013 and second in 2011.

Haas ticks a lot of boxes statistically ranking 42nd in GIR, 31st in strokes gained tee to green and 15th in approaches from 225-250. He also ranks third in approaches from 125-150, 30th in par 4 scoring and 12th in putts from inside 10 feet, which is a good stat for putting on these small greens.

 

Kevin Kisner 30/1 Greenbrier Classic 2015

Kevin Kisner 30/1

With five top 12’s in his last seven starts, Kevin Kisner comes into this week in superb form. He lost two playoffs in the last few weeks, which came at The RBC Heritage losing to Jim Furyk and The Players Championship losing to Rickie Fowler. He followed that with a T5 at The Crowne Plaza Invitational in Colonial, which included three 67’s and a 69. He then finished T8 at The Memorial and followed that with a T12 at The US Open in Chambers Bay. Kisner has played here three times in the past and missed the cut on all three occasions, but he comes here in much better form this time around.

Kisner ranks 18th in driving accuracy, 45th in strokes gained tee to green and seventh in approaches from 225-250. He also ranks 39th in par 3 scoring, 30th in par 4 scoring, 28th in par 5 scoring and 11th in putts from inside 10 feet. With great current form and missing out on two playoffs recently, this could be the week Kisner gets his long awaited win.

 

Tony Finau 35/1 Greenbrier Classic 2015

Tony Finau 35/1

I tipped Tony last week at The Travelers where he put in yet another solid performance finishing in a respectable T25. Before last week, he hadn’t finished outside the top 20 in his previous five events. He played well at Chambers Bay finishing T14, T8 at Memorial, T10 at The Byron Nelson, T19 at Colonial and T16 at The Wells Fargo in Quail Hollow. This course could suit the big hitting Finau, who is averaging 307 yards off the tee ranking seventh in driving distance.

He also ranks 36th in strokes gained tee to green, fourth in approaches from 150-175, 30th in par 4 scoring and 44th in par 5 scoring. This will be his first appearance at The Greenbrier and with great current form, this course could really suit his eye.

 

Brendan Todd 45/1 Greenbrier Classic 2015

Brendan Todd 45/1

Todd played well last week at The Travelers finishing T15, which included two 67’s on Saturday and Sunday. He also had a good week at The Memorial finishing solo 17th, which would have been a lot better if it weren’t for a disappointing 74 in the final round. He showed some good early season form finishing T8 at The HTOC, T10 in Pebble Beach, T14 at The Northern Trust and more recently, a solo fourth in Harbour Town at The RBC Heritage.

Todd has played well here in the past finishing T4 last year and seems to tick a lot of statistical boxes. He ranks 10th in driving distance, 13th in strokes gained putting and fourth in approaches from 100-125. He also ranks sixth in putts inside 10 feet, 20th in par 3 scoring and 18th in scrambling. With a good finish here last year, Todd could be another contender at a big price.

 

Final selections –

Webb Simpson 22/1 2pts EW

Bill Haas 28/1 1.5 pts EW

Kevin Kisner 30/1 1.5 pts EW

Tony Finau 35/1 1 pt EW

Brendan Todd 45/1 1 pt EW

Total staked = 14 pts

 

Good luck and enjoy the golf,

 

Doublebogey6

 

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